Kamala Harris is NOT WINNING! Latest 2024 Trump v. Harris Numbers.

Summary

In the video script, the speaker from Rasmus Reports critiques the current state of political polling, suggesting potential biases and inaccuracies in recent polls that claim Kamala Harris is leading in the polls. The speaker endorses Real Clear Politics' polling aggregate and presents their own data, showing Donald Trump with a consistent lead over Harris. They argue that despite media narratives, their independent polling methods provide a more accurate reflection of public opinion, highlighting demographic trends and the importance of not being swayed by sample size or media influence.

Takeaways

• 📊 The speaker emphasizes the importance of independent polling and media accuracy, suggesting that they provide a valuable service amidst misleading information operations.
• 🔍 The Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling aggregate is endorsed by Rasmussen Reports, which is considered more reliable than other sources.
• 🚫 The speaker criticizes other polling organizations for potential inaccuracies, suggesting they might be influenced by corporate interests or public funding.
• 📈 The script discusses a recent trend where Kamala Harris appears to be winning in polls, but the speaker questions the validity of these results.
• 📉 The speaker points out that even if Kamala Harris is ahead by a small margin, it's a bad sign for Democrats compared to historical data from previous elections.
• 🤔 The speaker speculates that there might be suspicious activities in polling, such as increased Democrat weighting or manipulation of survey respondents.
• 🗓 The speaker notes that most of the polling data is outdated, suggesting a lack of responsiveness to recent political developments.
• 🎯 The speaker argues against being swayed by sample size in polling, explaining the difference between accuracy and precision in polling results.
• 💰 The script mentions prediction markets where people bet on election outcomes, noting a shift in betting patterns that might reflect recent polling trends.
• 📉 The speaker presents their own polling data showing Donald Trump leading over Kamala Harris, highlighting demographic and party support breakdowns.
• 📊 The script includes trend data and moving averages from past elections, suggesting a consistent pattern of support for Donald Trump and a decline for Democrats.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the Rasmus Reports video?

The main focus of the Rasmus Reports video is to analyze and critique the current state of political polling, particularly regarding the 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and to present their own polling data.

Which polling aggregate does Rasmus Reports endorse and why?

Rasmus Reports endorses the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling aggregate because they believe it to be more reliable than others, which they consider to be 'dodgy'.

What does the speaker claim about the recent polls showing Kamala Harris ahead?

The speaker claims that the recent polls showing Kamala Harris ahead are suspicious and may be inaccurate, suggesting that they could be part of an effort to influence public opinion.

What is the speaker's view on the importance of polling registered versus likely voters?

The speaker believes that polling likely voters is more important and accurate, as many of the polls showing Harris ahead are polling registered voters, which may not accurately reflect the election outcome.

How does the speaker describe the funding and motivation of other polling organizations compared to Rasmus Reports?

The speaker suggests that other polling organizations may be influenced by corporate entities or public funding, whereas Rasmus Reports relies solely on subscription and advertising revenue, implying a higher commitment to accuracy.

What is the speaker's opinion on the timing of the recent polls showing Harris ahead?

The speaker finds it suspicious that these polls are being released during a time of significant political change, suggesting that they may be timed to influence public opinion rather than reflect an accurate snapshot of voter sentiment.

What is the speaker's view on the accuracy of the polls compared to the betting markets?

The speaker is skeptical of the accuracy of both polls and betting markets, noting that while betting markets are seen by some as more accurate due to real money being at stake, they can also be manipulated.

What are the key findings from Rasmus Reports' own polling data?

Rasmus Reports' own polling data shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by five points in a two-way matchup, with Trump winning among various demographics including women, younger voters, and Hispanic voters.

How does the speaker interpret the party support numbers for Trump and Harris?

The speaker notes that while Harris is taking 80% of the Democrat vote, Trump is taking 84% of the Republican vote, indicating a stronger party unity and a potential crossover advantage for Trump.

What is the significance of the speaker's mention of the economy in relation to the polls?

The speaker suggests that economic factors may influence voter preferences, noting that Trump leads among every income bracket under $200,000, while Harris does best among higher-income voters, possibly indicating a base of support among the elite and federal aid recipients.

How does the speaker address the issue of sample size in polling?

The speaker explains that while a larger poll may be more precise due to a smaller margin of error, it does not necessarily mean it is more accurate, emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between precision and accuracy in polling.