Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
Summary
TLDRIn diesem Video diskutiert der Sprecher die Bitcoin-Situation im Kontext der sogenannten 'Todeskreuzung', wenn die 50-Tage-SMA unter die 200-Tage-SMA fällt. Er vergleicht die aktuelle Marktlage mit jener von 2019 und erklärt, dass Bitcoin-Dominanz ein entscheidender Faktor ist, um die Geheimnisse des Krypto-Marktes zu entschließen. Er erwähnt, dass der Markt auf eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik warten könnte, bevor eine nachhaltige Veränderung stattfindet, und betont die Bedeutung einer DCA-Strategie, um mit dem Markt umzugehen.
Takeaways
- 😀 Das Video diskutiert die Möglichkeit eines Bitcoin-Rallys, wenn es die 50-Tage-SMA und die 200-Tage-SMA überschreitet, was als 'Todeskreuz' bekannt ist.
- 🤔 Der Sprecher ist skeptisch, ob Bitcoin schnell genug vor einer möglichen FED-Politikänderung nach oben rutschen kann.
- 📉 Im Jahr 2023 hatte Bitcoin Schwierigkeiten, obwohl es die 50-Tage-SMA überschritten hat, wurde es jedoch von der 200-Tage-SMA abgewiesen.
- 📊 Im Gegensatz zu 2019, als Bitcoin über seine 50-Tage-SMA rastete und dann den 'Todeskreuz' überschritt, bevor es zurückfiel, scheint die Situation 2024 anders zu sein.
- 💡 Die Märkte scheinen auf eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik zu warten, was durch quantitative Lockerung und eine mögliche FED-Politikänderung im September erwartet wird.
- 📈 Bitcoin-Dominanz ist ein entscheidender Faktor für die Entwicklung des Marktes, und die Erwartung ist, dass diese bis 60% steigen könnte, bevor ein Durchbruch oder ein Durchbruch erfolgt.
- 📉 Seit März 2023 hat Bitcoin einen strukturierten Abwärtstrend mit sinkenden Hochs und Tiefs, der sich ändern könnte, wenn die FED-Politik ändert.
- 📅 September wird oft als schwacher Monat für Bitcoin-Preise angesehen, obwohl es Ausnahmen gibt.
- 🔄 Die Erwartungen an die FED-Zinssenkungen sind im Fluss, was die Märkte in eine unsichere Lage versetzen kann.
- 🌐 Die Märkte reagieren auf die makroökonomischen Daten, die fast wöchentlich erscheinen, und können dadurch beeinflusst werden.
- 📊 Der Vergleich mit dem letzten Zyklus und dem Jahr 2019 zeigt, dass ähnliche Muster aufgetreten sind, was auf eine ähnliche Entwicklung in 2024 hindeutet.
- 💡 Die Verwendung einer DCA-Strategie (Dollar-Cost Averaging) wird empfohlen, um mit dem Markt umzugehen und die persönliche Risikotoleranz zu berücksichtigen.
Q & A
Was ist das 'Death Cross' im Kontext des Bitcoin-Markts?
-Das 'Death Cross' bezieht sich auf den Punkt, an dem die 50-Tage-SMA (SMA steht für Moving Average) unter die 200-Tage-SMA fällt. Dies wird oft als ein Zeichen für eine mögliche Marktnachteiligung angesehen.
Was passierte mit Bitcoin im Jahr 2023 bezüglich der 50-Tage-SMA?
-Im Jahr 2023 gelangte Bitcoin zweimal an die 50-Tage-SMA, wurde jedoch erst abgelehnt und dann durchbrochen, bevor es sich auf die 200-Tage-SMA bewegte.
Wie verhält sich Bitcoin normalerweise im September?
-Historisch gesehen tendiert Bitcoin im September zu schwächeren Preisbewegungen. Durchschnittlich ist September das Monat mit den schlechtesten Renditen für Bitcoin.
Was ist die Bedeutung von Bitcoin-Dominanz im Kontext des Skripts?
-Bitcoin-Dominanz zeigt den Marktanteil von Bitcoin an der gesamten Marktkapitalisierung der Kryptowährungen. Es ist ein Indikator für die Stärke von Bitcoin im Vergleich zu anderen Kryptowährungen.
Was ist eine DCA-Strategie und wie kann sie im Kontext des Skripts interpretiert werden?
-Eine DCA-Strategie, oder Dollar-Kost-Averaging-Strategie, ist eine Methode, bei der man regelmäßige Investitionen in eine Anlage tätigt, um die durchschnittlichen Kosten zu senken. Im Skript wird empfohlen, eine solche Strategie gemäß dem eigenen Risikoprofil zu entwickeln.
Welche Rolle spielt die FED-Politik im Bitcoin-Markt gemäß dem Skript?
-Die FED-Politik, insbesondere die Geldpolitik und die Zinssenkungen, kann einen signifikanten Einfluss auf den Bitcoin-Markt haben, da sie die allgemeine Marktstimmung und die Liquidität beeinflussen kann.
Was ist die Beziehung zwischen Bitcoin und Altcoins im Skript beschrieben?
-Im Skript wird beschrieben, dass Bitcoin oft als Hauptreferenz für den Markt dient und dass Altcoins oft in Bezug auf Bitcoin schwanken. Bitcoin kann Liquidität von Altcoins aufnehmen, wenn es zu Marktrückgängen kommt.
Wie wird die Volatilität des Bitcoin-Markts im Skript diskutiert?
-Die Volatilität des Bitcoin-Markts wird im Skript als abnehmend beschrieben, was auf die Reife des Asset-Klassen und die allgemeine Reduzierung der Renditen und Volatilität hinweist.
Was bedeuten die Begriffe 'Bull' und 'Bear' im Kontext des Skripts?
-Im Kontext des Skripts beziehen sich 'Bull' auf Personen, die eine positive Marktprognose haben, und 'Bear' auf Personen, die eine negative Marktprognose haben.
Was ist der Hauptfokus des Skripts in Bezug auf den Bitcoin-Markt?
-Der Hauptfokus des Skripts liegt auf der Analyse der Bitcoin-Marktbewegungen, der Beziehung zwischen den 50-Tage- und 200-Tage-SMA, sowie der Rolle von Bitcoin-Dominanz und FED-Politik im Markt.
Outlines
🤔 Bitcoin und die 'Todeskreuzung'
Dieses Absatz thematisiert die Bitcoin-Spekulationen bezüglich der 'Todeskreuzung', ein Phänomen, das erscheint, wenn die 50-Tage-SMA unter die 200-Tage-SMA fällt. Der Sprecher teilt seine persönliche Ablehnung des Begriffs, verwendet aber den Begriff, um die Marktpsychologie zu beschreiben. Er diskutiert die historische Bedeutung der Todeskreuzung im Kontext des Bitcoin-Markts, insbesondere im Jahr 2019, und die mögliche Bedeutung für die zukünftige Marktentwicklung. Der Sprecher geht auch auf die Bedeutung der FED-Politik und die Erwartungen bezüglich der Geldpolitik ein, die die Marktbewegungen beeinflussen könnten.
📉 Analyse der Bitcoin-Dominanz und Marktvolatilität
In diesem Absatz wird die Vergangenheit und Zukunft der Bitcoin-Dominanz im Markt diskutiert. Der Sprecher vergleicht die heutige Marktvolatilität mit der des Jahres 2019 und betont, dass die heutige Marktbewegung weniger volatil ist, was auf die Reife des Asset-Klasses hindeutet. Er erwähnt auch die Bedeutung der Bitcoin-Dominanz für die Marktentwicklung und die Rolle der alternativen Kryptowährungen (Altcoins). Der Sprecher diskutiert die Erwartungen für den September und die Bedeutung der historischen Monatsrendite für Bitcoin, insbesondere die Tendenz zu schwächeren Preisbewegungen in diesem Monat.
💡 Empfehlungen für eine DCA-Strategie im Markt
Der letzte Absatz bietet Ratschläge für eine stufenweise Investitionsstrategie (DCA), die auf dem individuellen Risikoprofil basiert. Der Sprecher betont, dass niemand die Marktbewegungen vorhersehen kann und dass es wichtig ist, die Bitcoin-Dominanz als Schlüssel zum Verständnis der Kryptowährungsmärkte zu betrachten. Er warnt vor extremen Bull- oder Bear-Positions und betont die Notwendigkeit, die Marktzyklen und die Rolle der Liquidität zu verstehen. Der Sprecher schließt mit einem Aufruf an die Zuschauer, das Angebot für das 'Into the Cryptoverse Premium' zu nutzen und teilt einen Abschiedsgrüß.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡50-Tage-SMA
💡200-Tage-SMA
💡Death Cross
💡Rally
💡Widerstandsniveau
💡Fed Pivot
💡Bitcoin Dominanz
💡Quantitative Easing
💡DCA-Strategie
💡Kryptoverse
Highlights
Discusses the potential for Bitcoin to rally as it approaches the crossing of the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, commonly referred to as the 'death cross'.
Clarifies personal dislike for the term 'death cross' but acknowledges its common use in the market.
Analyzes Bitcoin's historical performance in 2023, noting its resistance level at the 50-day SMA and its subsequent rally attempts.
References the 2019 Bitcoin market, comparing its behavior above the 50-day SMA to the current situation.
Suggests that the market may cool off for the rest of 2024, a prediction made in March that was unpopular at the time.
Notes the importance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its potential impact on Bitcoin's price movement.
Describes the market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and how expectations have shifted over time.
Points out the market's whipsaw action due to changing expectations and macroeconomic data.
Compares the current market situation to the 2019 cycle, noting similarities and differences in market behavior.
Mentions the reduced volatility in the market as the asset class matures and the implications for diminishing returns.
Predicts that the current market trend will continue until Bitcoin dominance reaches 60%.
Explains the relationship between Bitcoin dominance and altcoin liquidity, and its impact on market movement.
Advises on developing a DCA strategy based on individual risk tolerance, emphasizing the unpredictability of the market.
Reflects on the past three years and predicts a decrease in Bitcoin dominance in the coming year, affecting market dynamics.
Encourages understanding the market cycle and liquidity flow rather than simply being a Bitcoin maximalist.
Concludes with a reminder to subscribe and check out the sale on the 'Into the Cryptoverse Premium'.
Transcripts
hey everyone and thanks for jumping back
into the Crypt today we're going to talk
about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you
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docomond was that we likely see Bitcoin
rally into the crossing of the 50-day
SMA and the 200 200 day SMA otherwise
known as the death cross personally I
don't like the terminology that is used
for those things but that is just what
people call it when the 50-day SME
crosses below the 200 day and so in the
video yesterday or two days ago whenever
it was um we talked a lot about how you
know this is going to be your big
resistance level and if Bitcoin can get
above it right if Bitcoin can get above
the 50-day SMA then it subsequently
needs to actually hold it as support
okay and again in 2023 Bitcoin was able
to do that you know it rallied up to the
50-day right there and you can see that
it got it actually got rejected on that
first that first attempt second attempt
it it got through and then it went up to
the 200 day SME now if you go back to
say
2019 we actually saw Bitcoin go well
above its 50-day
SMA in fact it rallied into it right it
it rallied up and then as that death
cross occurred Bitcoin went above it and
then it came back down and in fact
what's interesting is when it had the
death cross Bitcoin kind of came back up
to this trend line that it had been
tagging several times you see that how
how it just kind of kept tagging that
same trend line and so I don't know if
if if Bitcoin can get back up that far
that quickly I mean I it's a market
anything's possible right we know that
if you've been here long enough you know
that too um but you know Bitcoin was
just up there at the end of July so you
know we'll see um so far these the
structure here of lower highs and lower
lows has been holding at some point I
would expect that to change it's just
that I'm not sure if it's you know can
it durably change before the FED pivots
is kind of the big question right can it
durably change before the FED pivots to
lose for monetary policy I don't know
right so as I said back in March it's
possible right and I I know this was not
popular back then right but it's
possible that the market just kind of
cools off for the rest of 2024 now you
know when the Market's going absolutely
bananas on days like yesterday it's hard
to see that right but you when you just
zoom out when you zoom out and you look
at whatever what happened since March
Bitcoin has just been slowly
going down okay and I I think the reason
I think the reason is because the
markets right the markets
need looser policy right they need
looser policy they need quantitative
easing theoretically um and it's like
the Market's just kind of waiting
because we don't actually know when it's
going to occur now we think we know
September seems like the most likely
outcome but even then the extent of rate
Cuts is not entirely clear few weeks ago
the market would have told you that 25
basis points is likely all we were going
to get now the Market's expecting with a
slight Edge 50 basis point rate cut but
even this was different a couple days
ago a couple days ago it was like a 75%
chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at
one point a couple weeks ago or about a
week ago um the market was pricing in
125 basis points of rate Cuts before the
year was over now it's only pricing in
100 so you can see that that
expectations are constantly shifting
which can also cause the market to sort
of do this whipsaw action right where it
you know it just kind of keeps going up
and down and and I think it's kind of
the the the movements from one extreme
to the other on on what expectations are
you know what are they what what are the
expectations going to be and a lot of
that is dependent on the incoming macro
data that we are getting you know on a
almost weekly basis and especially on a
monthly basis when we get the
unemployment data so this pattern is is
something we saw last cycle and this is
what I I think and this is why I've made
that comparison to 2019 so much is
because we saw something very similar
back then too you know and it was brutal
and and and and look you know the one
positive thing is that the angle of
descent on this isn't as bad as it was
over here you know it's going to depend
it's going to obviously depend on your
your aspect ratio that you're using but
um if we were to go get a trend angle
right a trend angle here and sort of
take that down you can see it's about
what
40° but if you go to this
one it's only about what is that 20°
right 20° so there's there was a lot
more volatility a lot more volatility
over were here in 2019 than there has
been so far in 2024 now that makes sense
as the asset class matures there's going
to be less volatility it's also in line
with diminishing diminishing returns
comes with diminishing volatility in
general and so you know that's an
important aspect of the market right and
you know it's just the way the market is
you know I don't control how it is
that's just the way the market is
they're just diminishing volatility but
this whole move right this whole move
since March was something we've talked
about over and over and over again
because it was at that time in March
that usct dominance hit its long-term
trend line and it was when gold broke
out and so the expectation is well what
if you just get a a midcycle top until
we get a pivot from the Federal Reserve
right a sufficient pivot okay and so
we'll see you know we'll see if if that
continues to to pay off or not I mean
again we are going to be likely getting
a rate cut in
September um so keep that in mind in the
short term in the short term I think
that the the the resistance level that
Bitcoin is is faced with right now is
getting above that 50-day and 200 day
moving average okay that is the the
resistance level that that Bitcoin faces
if it can get above it then you're going
to want to see at hold of the 50-day SMA
as support remember in September there
often is some type of of negative price
action right it doesn't mean that every
every September is red but it just tends
to be a weaker month on average um if
you're not familiar with what I'm
talking about if we just go look at at
monthly returns uh for for Bitcoin on
average um you know the two worst months
are August and September but September
uh is is the worst on average right Nega
-6% uh but again last year we actually
saw a green month uh which is funny
because you know I I come out with a
video and say well you know most
septembers are red not all of them but
most and then everyone was freaking out
because it went up 4% in September right
it's you know who cares guys this is
just it's just like sort of the average
Type move that you're going to see um
and you know it was lucky number seven
right we had had six Reds in a row
finally got a a green September so we'll
see what 2024 has in store um but we'll
take this one step at a time I think
again my expectation is that this trend
will
continue in until Bitcoin dominance is
at 60% okay that is my thought is that
we don't break out of this in either
direction right whether it be to the
upside or to the downside if the if the
FED has gone too far if you if the FED
hasn't gone too far and and we just get
a nice soft Landing then it likely
breaks up If the Fed has gone too far
then it likely breaks down but my point
is that we're likely going to stay in
this structure more than likely until
Bitcoin dominance hits 60%
and the reason for that right the reason
that I say that is is it's because when
Bitcoin does get these crashes to the
bottom of this trend line it has all
this altcoin liquidity that it can tap
into okay and the markets are are a
function of liquidity right and when you
still see you know when you still see
all Bitcoin pairs at 38 and you know you
know that historically altcoins are
oscillators against Bitcoin at best
there's all the this liquidity right
here that theoretically Bitcoin can take
right and that's what happened last time
right I mean when when Bitcoin finally
you know if you look at when this ended
right here this the alt Bitcoin pair
drop ended September of
2019 right September of 2019 now if you
go over to to to to bitcoin and you look
sort of at this trend line and you look
to see okay where was September you can
see it was here right so Bitcoin was
still in this
channel as long as all Bitcoin pairs
were not at the range lows now
eventually they got to the range lows
and then the market moved out of it to
the
upside and then it moved down below it
because we got a recession but Bitcoin
stayed within this channel until Bitcoin
dominance or sorry until all Bitcoin
pairs had gone to the range lows okay
and so that is I I think the the the key
aspect of this market and again I mean I
think the the right approach is to come
up with a DCA strategy according to
whatever risk tolerance you want to
focus on no one can predict the market
no one can tell you where we're going to
go tomorrow of course you're going to
have people that are just going to Bull
post all day you're going to have people
that are just going to Bear post all day
but at the end of the day neither side
has really gotten what they want uh this
year especially since March as you know
the market has gone very slightly low
um but you know not really that much
compared to the move that got us here
and it also hasn't gone higher right
sort of defying the expectations of the
people that thought we were going to be
at 100K already so that's where we are
with the market i i as I've said before
I think Bitcoin dominance is the is the
key to unlocking the secrets of the
cryptoverse and I know it might not have
been obvious a couple years ago but by
this point you should see how most of
the coin Market just sort of defers to
bitcoin H especially until that lucid
policy arrives okay I told you guys
three years ago by the end of the
dominance rally it's going to turn a lot
of you guys into Maxis I'm guessing some
of you have turned into Maxis over the
last three years just know that next
year good chance dominance is going to
go down that's the way the cycle works
okay it's not about being a Bitcoin Maxi
it's just about understanding how the
Cycle Works where the liquidity comes in
you know when do alts tend to outperform
bitcoin durably obviously you can always
cherry pick a few here and there but
that is that is the way the market works
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I'll see you guys next time bye
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