Eco 155: Principles of Macroeconomics Class 3

Summary

The script discusses economic principles and their real-world implications, focusing on long-term effects of policies versus short-term intentions. It uses examples like airline safety regulations for children, fuel economy standards, and property value to illustrate how outcomes can diverge from expectations. The speaker emphasizes avoiding biases and the importance of ceteris paribus in economic analysis, critiquing the misuse of data and graphs to distort perceptions.

Takeaways

• 🏠 The voice of the speaker is strained due to home renovation activities, including removing carpet and installing a French door.
• 🔨 The discussion revolves around economic principles and their long-term effects, which can differ significantly from short-term outcomes.
• 👶 The Federal Aviation Administration is considering regulations for children under two years old to have their own airplane seats for safety reasons, which could increase costs and potentially lead to more driving and accidents.
• ✈️ The safety regulations for children on airplanes may inadvertently cause more harm by encouraging driving over flying, which is statistically safer.
• 🚗 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards are linked to changes in car design, potentially leading to more fatalities due to smaller, lighter vehicles being less safe in accidents.
• 📊 The importance of accurate data representation is emphasized, as changing graph scales or providing incomplete data can introduce bias and mislead interpretations.
• 📚 The value of subjective worth is highlighted, suggesting that value cannot be objectively measured and is instead determined by what someone is willing to pay.
• 🌳 The story of 'Luna the tree' illustrates the concept of subjective value and the opportunity cost of actions, as one woman's protest to save a tree had significant personal sacrifice.
• 📉 The script cautions against the violation of 'ceteris paribus', a principle that requires isolating variables to understand the true impact of changes.
• 🤔 It warns against introducing bias in economic analysis, using examples of how altering graph scales or relying on limited data can skew perceptions and potentially influence policy.
• 📚 The discussion concludes with the importance of reading to children for educational development, noting the potential bias in studies that suggest a significant reading gap between low and middle-income households.

Q & A

What is the main concern of the Federal Aviation Administration when considering regulations for children under the age of two on airplanes?

The main concern is safety. The idea is to prevent young children from being injured or causing injury to others in case of accidents, as they could be thrown from a parent's lap during a collision or turbulence.

How might increased costs of flying due to regulations affect people's behavior according to the script?

Increased costs of flying might lead people to seek alternative, potentially less safe, modes of transportation, such as driving, which could result in more accidents and fatalities compared to flying.

What is the purpose of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards mentioned in the script?

The purpose of CAFE standards is to improve fuel efficiency in vehicles, which can help reduce fuel consumption, lower emissions, and potentially decrease dependence on foreign oil, as was the case after the oil embargo in the 1970s.

Why might making cars lighter and smaller to meet CAFE standards have unintended consequences?

Making cars lighter and smaller can lead to a decrease in safety, as smaller cars may be more vulnerable in collisions with larger vehicles, potentially resulting in more fatalities from car accidents.

What does the script suggest about the long-term effects of policies or actions, and why are they important to consider?

The script suggests that long-term effects can be vastly different from short-term effects and may sometimes be more detrimental. Considering these effects is important because they can influence the overall success or failure of a policy and its impact on society.

What is the concept of 'ceteris paribus' in the context of the script, and why is it important to avoid its violation?

'Ceteris paribus,' which means 'all else being equal,' is important because it allows for the isolation of variables when analyzing changes. Violating this concept by changing multiple factors at once can make it difficult to accurately assess the impact of a single variable.

Why is it crucial to avoid introducing bias when analyzing data or presenting information, as mentioned in the script?

Avoiding bias is crucial because it ensures the accuracy and objectivity of the analysis. Bias can lead to misleading conclusions and policy decisions, which may not accurately represent the situation or the needs of the population.

What is the example of the woman named Julia, also known as 'Butterfly,' and what point was she trying to make by living in a tree for two years?

Julia, known as 'Butterfly,' lived in a tree for two years to prevent a logging company from cutting it down. She was making a point about the value of private property and the environment, showing the lengths to which individuals may go to protect what they value.

How does the script illustrate the subjective nature of value and the importance of willingness to pay in determining it?

The script uses the example of Julia living in a tree and the concept of an appraisal to show that value is subjective and determined by what someone is willing to pay or sacrifice for it, rather than an objective measure.

What are some examples given in the script to demonstrate how changing the scale of a graph can introduce bias or mislead interpretation?

The script provides examples of stock graphs and labor force participation rates, showing how altering the scale can make one option appear more favorable or unfavorable than another, thus influencing perceptions and decisions.

What is the issue with using a small sample size to generalize findings, as illustrated by the reading time example in the script?

Using a small sample size to generalize findings can introduce significant bias and inaccuracies. The script cites an example where estimates of reading time for low-income and middle-income households were based on a very small number of observations, leading to potentially misleading conclusions.

Outlines

00:00

🏠 Home Renovation and Economic Principles

The speaker is undertaking a home renovation project in the basement, including carpet removal, installation of a French door, and painting. Amidst the dust and strain on their voice, they discuss economic concepts such as opportunity cost, incentives, marginalism, and information costs. They review these concepts and introduce the idea that economic accidents can have long-term effects different from short-term intentions, using the Federal Aviation Administration's considerations for airline regulations on children under two as an example.

05:02

🛫 Airline Safety Regulations and Economic Trade-offs

This paragraph delves into the potential safety regulation changes for children under two on airplanes, discussing the economic principle of cost and the trade-offs involved. It contrasts the safety of flying with driving, highlighting that flying is statistically safer. The speaker ponders the unintended consequences of increased costs on consumer behavior, suggesting that such regulations could lead to more car travel and potentially more accidents.

10:03

🚗 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards and Unintended Consequences

The discussion shifts to the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, exploring how these regulations can influence vehicle design and safety. The speaker suggests that smaller, lighter cars, which are produced to meet fuel efficiency standards, may contribute to more fatalities in accidents. They cite economic research indicating that CAFE standards could be responsible for approximately 2,000 deaths per year due to changes in the types of vehicles on the road.

15:06

🌳 The Value of a Tree and Subjective Economics

The speaker tells the story of Julia 'Butterfly' Hill, who lived in a tree for two years to prevent it from being cut down, illustrating the subjective nature of value in economics. They argue that value cannot be objectively measured and is instead determined by what an individual is willing to sacrifice or pay. The anecdote is used to emphasize that personal values and costs can significantly influence economic decisions.

20:10

📈 The Importance of Isolating Variables in Economic Analysis

This paragraph discusses the methodological importance of isolating variables when analyzing economic changes. The speaker uses the example of wheat yield increases due to fertilizer and pesticide to illustrate the difficulty of attributing changes to specific factors. They stress the need to maintain the ceteris paribus condition—assuming all else is equal—to accurately assess economic impacts.

25:12

📊 Avoiding Bias in Economic Data Presentation

The speaker warns against introducing bias in economic data presentation, using stock graphs with altered scales to demonstrate how easily perceptions can be manipulated. They differentiate between positive and normative economics, emphasizing the importance of objectivity in analysis and the dangers of letting personal opinions influence economic interpretations.

30:47

📉 Misleading Graphs and Economic Data Misinterpretation

Building on the previous point, the speaker provides further examples of how graph scaling can mislead by showing the same Dow Jones Industrial Average data in two different ways. They highlight how changes in scale can make one stock appear to perform worse or better than another, even though the data represents the same performance.

35:53

📊 Labor Force Participation Rate and Data Representation

The speaker critiques the representation of labor force participation rates, particularly for black males, in economic data. They demonstrate how changing the scale of a graph can alter perceptions of trends, from stability to significant decline. The paragraph underscores the power of data visualization in shaping economic narratives.

40:53

🔥 The Colorado Wildfire and the Sensationalism of Data

In the final paragraph, the speaker reflects on the media's portrayal of a Colorado wildfire, which consumed 11,000 acres. They calculate the area to be approximately 17 square miles, a size that, while significant, may not warrant the extensive media coverage it received. The speaker suggests that the sensationalism of data can distort public perception and priorities.

Keywords

💡Opportunity Cost

Opportunity cost is the value of the next best alternative that is forgone when making a decision. In the video, it is discussed in the context of economic decisions, illustrating how choices involve trade-offs. For example, when discussing incentives altering behavior, the opportunity cost could be the leisure time lost when choosing to work more.

💡Incentives

Incentives are factors that motivate individuals to take certain actions. The video explains how incentives can alter people's behavior, such as in the case of corporate average fuel economy standards, where car manufacturers are incentivized to produce more fuel-efficient cars to avoid fines.

💡Marginalism

Marginalism refers to the economic concept of making decisions based on the additional benefits and costs of one more unit of a good or service. The video emphasizes the importance of considering marginal benefits versus marginal costs when making economic decisions, such as in the example of the FAA considering regulations for children under two years old on airplanes.

💡Information Costs

Information costs are the expenses incurred in acquiring knowledge or data. The video mentions that information is important but comes at a cost, which can affect decision-making. For instance, the appraisal of a house involves costs that may not always reflect the true value as perceived by the buyer or seller.

💡Long-Run Effects

Long-run effects are the consequences that persist over an extended period, often differing from short-term outcomes. The video discusses how policies or decisions can have long-term effects that are vastly different from the intended short-term impacts, such as the unintended safety risks associated with changing airplane seating regulations for children.

💡Economic Accidents

Economic accidents refer to unforeseen consequences that arise from economic activities or policies. The video uses the term to describe situations where well-intentioned policies can lead to negative long-term effects, such as the potential increase in car accidents due to changes in vehicle size and construction for fuel efficiency standards.

💡Subjective Value

Subjective value is the personal assessment of the worth of a good or service, which can vary greatly from person to person. The video explains that value is not an objective measure but rather what someone is willing to pay for something, using the example of a woman living in a tree for two years to prevent it from being cut down, highlighting her personal valuation of the tree.

💡Ceteris Paribus

Ceteris paribus, a Latin term meaning 'all else being equal,' is used in economics to isolate the effect of one variable while assuming other factors remain constant. The video emphasizes the importance of this principle in understanding the true impact of changes, such as the difficulty in attributing increased wheat yield solely to fertilizer or pesticide.

💡Bias

Bias refers to a systematic error or inclination that can lead to a distorted view or understanding. In the video, the presenter warns against introducing bias in economic analysis, such as by changing the scale of a graph to make one investment appear more favorable than another, or by using limited data to draw broad conclusions.

💡Regression Analysis

Regression analysis is a statistical method used to examine the relationship between variables. The video mentions how economists use regression analysis to determine the impact of certain policies, such as the corporate average fuel economy standards, on outcomes like traffic fatalities.

💡Labor Force Participation Rate

The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the working-age population that is employed or actively seeking work. The video discusses how changes in the scale of a graph can affect the perception of this rate, demonstrating the importance of accurate representation in data visualization.

Highlights

Renovating the basement by tearing out carpet and installing a new French door.

Discussing the long-term effects of economic decisions and how they can differ from short-term outcomes.

Examining the potential safety regulations for children under two on airplanes and their unintended consequences.

The impact of increased flight costs on people's behavior and the potential shift to less safe transportation methods.

Analyzing corporate average fuel economy standards and their role in altering car structures, leading to increased accident fatalities.

The subjective nature of value and the inability to objectively measure it through examples like house appraisals.

The story of Julia 'Butterfly' Hill living in a tree for two years to prevent it from being cut down, illustrating the personal value of property.

The importance of the ceteris paribus assumption in economic analysis to isolate the effects of single variables.

Avoiding the introduction of bias in economic analysis, such as through graph scaling or selective data presentation.

The critique of the reading time gap between low-income and middle-income households, questioning the validity of the data and potential bias.

The discussion on how media coverage can distort perceptions of events, such as the extensive报道of a relatively small wildfire in Colorado.

The concept of opportunity cost illustrated through the example of living in a tree to save it, and what was sacrificed in the process.

The unintended consequences of well-intended policies, such as child safety on airplanes leading to potentially more harm.

The economic principle that incentives influence behavior, as seen in responses to increased flight costs.

The role of marginalism in decision-making, weighing marginal benefits against marginal costs.

The critique of the use of graphs to present data in a potentially misleading way, emphasizing the importance of accurate representation.

The economic principle that value is determined by what an individual is willing to pay, not by objective measures.

The practical application of economic theories in everyday life, such as home renovation projects and transportation choices.

Transcripts

[Music]

okay we'll see how long my voice last

I'm tearing out our carpet in the

basement and taking out I took out a

door over the weekend and finished

putting in a new French door so we're

taking up the carpet and really leveling

the basement floor doing some painting

some other things so all that dusts is

my voice really hurts and I'm it's gotta

last till 11 o'clock so we'll see if it

will see if some coffee helps it so what

we want to do today is we want to finish

up our discussion of the things to do we

want to look at some things to avoid and

we'll go over some graphing so let's

kind of review what we had looked at

last time so we had these things to do

these ideas that we wanted to keep in

mind and we had things like opportunity

cost blessing we had things like people

economize

we said incentives alter people's

behavior we said marginalism was

important right looking at the marginal

benefits versus the marginal cost our

fifth one was on information right we

said information was important but it

was costed to obtain and so what we want

to look at today is basically number six

number seven

so number six here

economic accidents can generate long-run

effects that are vastly different from

the short-run effects right so in other

words when we're engaging and we're

doing stuff and we pass policies we can

get results in the long run that are a

whole lot different than what we

actually intended in the short run and

actually can be more detrimental in one

way than what we had originally started

so let's look at a couple of different

examples the Federal Aviation

Administration is considering laws or

regulations

on children under the age of two okay so

currently here is the way that it works

right when you get on an airplane and

you have a child that's less than two

years old that child does not have to

have a seat

they can sit on your lap okay now why do

you think they would be interested in

making there's thinking about changing

this so that the child under the age of

two auste house also has to have their

own seat why do you think they would be

interested in that do what well they

don't have anything to do with costs

they're not the airline's so it's not it

has nothing to do with making people buy

extra seats mm-hmm exactly right the

whole idea behind it is safety right the

idea being that just like in a regular

car right if you have your child in your

lap and the car hits another car there's

no way you can keep the child with you I

mean the car the kid is gonna go all

right the whole idea here is the same

thing right with the airlines you don't

want little babies flying around the cab

and hitting people in the back of the

head and hurting them all right because

that's gonna be bad for the child and

for the adult forget the fact the planes

crash into the ground from six miles in

the sky at 600 miles an hour all right

nobody's gonna survive anyway but

irrespective of that that's the idea now

let's think about that because making

your child buy a seat actually does make

what go up she just said it the cost

right so if we have an increase in costs

to fly how might people respond to that

so what would they do dry and what's

safer driving or flying fly flying safer

than walking did you guys know that it

is the safest form of transportation it

is safer than walking so what we have

done is we have in the guise of safety

and this is what they're thinking about

doing and the guise of safety what

they're thinking about doing is they're

going to take people out of the airplane

which is very safe put lots of kids into

cars which are relatively unsafe and

actually cause probably more people to

get killed in the car than they would

and the plane there's another example

since we're on cars

we have our corporate average fuel

economy standards what they say is that

one of automaker is selling cars the

average fuel economy of the fleet has to

meet a certain level huh

so let's assume it's 25 it's not 25

let's assume that it is 25 miles per

gallon and in essence what we want to do

is we want to sell this other car this

other car gets say 15 miles per gallon

which means every single time I sell one

of these guys a 15 mile per gallon car

I've got to sell another car that gets

how many miles per gallon exactly right

because 35 and 25 the average is 25 15

and 35 average out to 25 now if they

don't reach this standard the fines are

quite substantial right so the fines you

know if they are at twenty four point

nine miles per gallon the fine is X

number of dollars times however many

cars they sold all of the cars that they

sold right so they have an incentive to

ensure that they reach this standard so

how can we get cars to have 35 miles per

gallon rather than say 15 or 25 miles

per gallon what can we do

how would we get this that's one way

relatively easy or relatively hard it's

yeah it's hard right if it was easy to

make the engine more efficient they

would have already done that how can you

make the car have an increase in gotten

miles per gallon easily make the car

lighter so you make them out of plastic

and make them smaller

that's the easy way right the car I

drove and I was in college was a 1970

Buick LeSabre it was all steel

there wasn't any plastic in there and in

fact when you're goofing off and stuff

and you accidentally back into somebody

or you're back into a pole or something

it's the pole in the building that gets

damaged not my car right today's cars

the bumpers are made out of plastic all

right and they're a whole lot smaller my

whole fraternity could fit into my Buick

LeSabre hey let's all go to so-and-so

120 guys jump in we all go alright so

let's think about this here for a second

small little tiny light car made out of

plastic that's really really tiny it's

driving down the highway at 70 miles an

hour runs into Ford f-150 also going 70

miles an hour who's going to win Ford

f-150 and in fact economists have

figured out using things like regression

analysis and things like that that the

corporate average fuel economy standards

are responsible for approximately 2,000

deaths per year from auto accidents

right it changes the structure of cars

on the road enough and you can sit there

and you can analyze the accidents and

who is driving these cars and why

they're driving these cars and you can

say we figured out that there's about

2,000 people that die every single year

on the highways is because of the

corporate average fuel economy standards

it puts people into really small really

liked cars

and interestingly enough it's not if you

would think to yourself okay well just

get rid of the Ford f-150s make them all

small light cars and the small light car

sitting small light cars kills people

small light cars and big heavy cars

kills people big heavy cars big heavy

cars tends to not kill as many people

all right

so it's not a matter of Oh get rid of

all of these

and put everybody in this that doesn't

help either right so we have these

long-run effects that can be vastly

different from the short-run effects

right I mean this guy right here is

directly related to safety we want to

ensure that kids under the age of two

don't die or actually making people die

we want to ensure that we have fuel

economy standards because we had an oil

embargo in the 70s right and in essence

what you get is you get about 2,000

people a year dying these long run

effects can be vastly different from the

short run effects right because what

have they done they've done things like

they have changed incentives people are

economizing what's the opportunity cost

of this stuff number seven value is

subjective right

we cannot go out and objectively measure

value you can't do that

if I think my house is worth $300,000

there's really only one way to know if

my house is worth $300,000 and what is

that just see if somebody's going to buy

it

I can't just go out and say this house

is worth $300,000 one of the things that

I think is really really interesting

when you buy a house you have an

appraisal and the appraisal person comes

out and says yes this house is worth

this or yes this house is not worth that

I've never really actually understood

the purpose of that because if you have

a buyer that is willing to pay $300,000

for the house and by definition the

house is worth $300,000 that's what that

means right and in essence I don't

understand the idea behind the appraisal

the idea behind the appraisal is that

look if you don't make your payments the

bank wants to insure that if they take

possession of your house they can sell

it to somebody else

but in essence what they're saying is

that yeah sure enough we're thinking

that your house is worth this much well

of course it is somebody's willing to

pay that there's another way to think of

this right there's a woman by the name

of Julia and she calls her name

butterfly

he'll you guys know what she's famous

for and you probably don't she's from my

age she lived in a tree for two years

out in California why do you think she

would do that

do what she was making a point what

would that point be no it was in essence

it was private property it was a Lumber

Company and the Lumber Company was

eventually gonna turn the tree into

lumber they're gonna cut it down and she

didn't want the tree to cut down she

didn't think the tree should be cut down

and so she lived in the tree thinking of

course but they can't cut the tree down

while I'm up there that would be really

really bad for public relations and she

would be right right so she lived in

this tree for two years out in

California so that they wouldn't cut it

down she actually even named the tree

she called it Luna all right and she had

people come out there and she would

lower down a bucket and they would give

her food and she'd bring it back up and

of course when she's going to the

bathroom she just goes to the bathroom

and she lived in this tree for two years

right eventually the company says fine

come out of the tree we promise not to

cut down Luna and all the trees within

100 yards around it okay just get out of

the darn tree so she comes down other

tree blah blah blah how much is that

tree worth to her

Oh a lot right would you guys live in a

tree for two years no right what is the

opportunity cost of her living in a tree

for two years two years pay right two

years worth of relationships with normal

people all right rather than owls and

grubs and things like that right so you

can't say to yourself the tree doesn't

have value because the tree clearly does

have values nobody was willing to in

essence sacrifice two years of their

life right in essence to save this tree

so we cannot objectively measure value

value is what somebody is willing to pay

interestingly enough of course because

she lived in the tree for two years and

went to the bathroom for two years the

tree actually died so but that's I guess

that's beside the point

she actually ended up killing the tree

some of her friends tried it too on some

other trees and then they found out that

gravity can really suck if you know what

I mean that's true story okay

so it's like a things to avoid

first thing we want to avoid is

violation of the idea of ceteris paribus

so terrorist paribus here means

everything else equal

okay I know those when we're looking at

changes we want to make sure that we're

only looking at one thing changing at a

time so let's look at an example let's

suppose we've got a field

and this field gives us 100 bushels of

wheat okay and then next year we apply

10% more fertilizer and 10% more

pesticide and we get 130 bushels how

much of those extra bushels are from the

fertilizer and how much are from the

pesticide we don't know exactly let's

assume that the year after that we just

put on 10% more fertilizer and we get

say a hundred and ten bushels what can

we say now

can we say that no what can we say for

sure the fertilizer at a tent why can we

not say that 10% in the pesticide out of

20 there's two things that are changing

and it's possible that the fertilizer

and the pesticide are also interacting

with each other right

the only way for us to know how much the

additional pesticide is is to have one

that is only pesticide

now what can we say yep

we can say what else mm-hmm and we can

say one more thing ten percent more

fertilizer gives ten percent more

bushels right when we're looking at

these changes we can only have one thing

changing at a time if we have a whole

bunch of different things changing we

it's difficult to say how much of this

change how much of what we're seeing

here $300,000 from my house or corporate

average fuel economy or people not

flying and driving how much of that is

coming from just the change that is

occurring right we have to be able to

isolate those changes and that can be

difficult to do but it's something that

you have to try to do right we want to

look at only one thing changing at a

time second thing we want to avoid is

introducing bias why would we want to

avoid that

what type of economics would that be

we got a 50-50 chance of guess all right

no

what kind would that be

positive or normative so if we introduce

bias what are we doing Norman right

normative economics is by definition

opinion and that's an essence what bias

is let's look at a couple different

examples here

I've got two different stocks these are

real stocks this is not made up okay

here's the first one okay got that idea

in your mind what that guy looks like

here's the second one which stock would

you rather buy the first guy or the

second guy first guy right these are in

essence the exact same thing this is

actually the Dow Jones Industrial stock

average and you can see over here he

starts here at 11,500 and he goes to

7,500 what's this guy doing

twelve thousand all the way down to zero

all right

and you can see that these guys are the

same we got to line them up

yeah it's pretty good so we've got

this guy right here he matches that guy

here's these two guys there they are

right there there's these three guys

there they are right there here's this

guy here see that flat part there there

he is

comes down here there's that guy there's

that guy there's that guy all right all

I did was change the scale of the graph

and by changing the scale of the graph I

made one guy look worse than the other

guy

right no it's the same this is the same

this guy shows this guy just doing this

right he's relatively flat to here right

and then has a small little dip right

what's happening here with this guy when

you look at this guy what do you say to

yourself this is a good investment or

this is a bad investment this guy is

going all the way from here to here

right and in fact I mean you can

actually show it and we can show that

this guy here's this guy right here he's

going he's starting at this point right

here and he's headed to this guy right

so can we see that if we keep him going

that's what he's doing right generally

speaking

this guy's going from here and he's

ending here all right if this guy keeps

going on he's gonna wind up here right

which rate of descent is higher is is

higher was worse it's clearly this guy

but it's the same thing all you did was

change the scale by changing the scale

you made one thing look worse than the

other or one thing look better than the

other

do we need another example you guys not

convinced

I'll just pull this down would be easier

this actually let's look at some more

examples

there's the Bureau of Labor Statistics

let's look at let's look at national

employment rates

usually it's this guy right here that's

not enabled I have to use that one so

let's see if they changed it

hey let's try this guy

[Laughter]

okay here's the labor force

participation rate we'll understand a

little bit more of it this means when we

start talking about unemployment and

employment things like that

so here's this guy you guys got this guy

in your head let's download him as Excel

okay

and let's go ahead and make a chart so

here's this guy's going from 1948 to

here we're gonna insert that's not one I

want a line okay here's our guy right

here let's do the exact same thing again

all this guy all the way down

okay there's the labor force

participation rate how does that look

pretty steady that's what I would say -

what about this guy

steady no different from the other guy

right

here it is for black males or is this

just blacks no we want black males

you let me know if you see it here we go

right here this'll do we have been with

let's change the scale here too let's

change this guy too let's change our

strike that let's change that guy just

sixteen five she was just good cocked

what's that guy doing he's decreasing

he's going down a whole bunch looks like

it to me

what about now

he's pretty steady a slight decline

maybe but not that bad I haven't changed

the date at all I want this data to show

that the labor force participation rates

for African males has fallen off a cliff

does that show that no

oops

that guy does backed it solo it doesn't

even show up the rest on the graph

that's how bad it is

all right horrible all right same date

oh I just made it show something

completely different

here's another example it seems to exist

how to measure the class gap in reading

okay I'm gonna read you what part of

what this says call it the reading

income gap children from low-income

households average 25 hours of shared

reading time with their parents before

starting school compared with 1,000 to

1,700 hours for their counterparts for

middle income homes these oft repeated

numbers originated in a 1990 book by

Marilyn Adams titled beginning to read

thinking and learning about print okay

so here's what this says did you guys as

parents read to you maybe they did maybe

they did write what this guy says is

this she's saying look I've done some

studies and I have shown that people

from low-income households

h/h is my abbreviation for households

these people from low-income households

their parents read to them from the time

they're born till the time they are

going into kindergarten they get twenty

five hours of reading their parents

reading them twenty five hours in the

course of five years five hours a year

all right the middle-income households

they do this one thousand seventeen

hundred all right so if it's a thousand

hours let's not just make it a thousand

okay there's no way I'm wearing nice

clothes again with these double-sided

markers so it's just I'm gonna start

showing up and yucky clothes those are

gonna get all over me

let's look at our calculator here what

do you do this search it again on this

oh here we go

so here's a thousand hours all right

divided by five 200 divided by 365 50

for 30 minutes a day something like that

all right you're doing 1,700 divided by

five there reading three hundred and

forty hours a year divided by 365 right

0.9 three times 60 55 minutes a day

that's what that guy says right clearly

if you're getting read to 55 minutes a

day from age zero all the way up to age

five when you go into school are you

gonna be a better reader ceteris paribus

or a worse reader a better reader

ceteris paribus right keeping everything

else constant you're gonna do better in

school right does anyone

disagree with that think no that's

stupid if you parents read to you they

do worse in school everything else

constant so here's these numbers right

snitch says okay these low-income

households read to the kids twenty five

hours from zero to five middle-income a

thousand hours right

these oft repeated numbers originated in

a 1990 book by Marilyn Adams titled

beginning to read thinking about

learning in print

mrs. Adams got the 25 hour estimate from

a study that she did of 24 children and

22 low-income households so you say to

yourself where does this never come from

22 households for the middle income

figures see extrapolated from the

experience of a single child her then

four-year-old son John

do you think there might be a little

bias here

yeah and in fact interestingly enough

when you read about this these two

numbers like these can persevere in

advocacy material right

no major group opposes childhood reading

or argues that children from low-income

households shouldn't have a level

playing field right I mean the her book

here was used people read this book and

said oh my gosh this is horrible we have

to do stuff we're gonna change public

policy and rearrange dollars and

spending and things like that to fix

this problem and I'm not saying that

low-income households don't read to

their children more or less than

middle-income households I don't know

and I'm not saying that reading to your

kids is bad it's it's good the problem

is is that you have introduced bias here

alright here's another example several

years ago I lived in Georgia when I was

living in Georgia they had a giant

forest fire near us or actually I guess

was out in Colorado so had they had this

giant wildfire out in Colorado and the

reason that I remember this is because

it was on the news constantly I mean it

was just constantly on the news it never

went away it was on the news 24 hours a

day seven days a week and by the time

this thing was all said and done they

had burned out about 11,000 acres I was

thinking herself

Wow 11,000 acres that's really bad and

then I got to thinking about it I said

because it's on the news all the time it

was literally 24 hours a day I was like

wait a minute what how much area that is

11,000 acres and you've got about 640

acres in a square mile

which means this guy right here is

approximately 17 square miles and of

course as you guys know from sixth grade

math fifth grade math if you have a box

four by four miles in size this carrot

here is 16 all right so this box right

here would be like 4.1 something like

that and this guy right here is

approximately 17

the information wasn't incorrect 11,000

acres did burn but what sounds sexier

11,000 acres burning or a box for miles

by 4 miles burned in Colorado

you see I'm saying is this interesting

guys been to Colorado it's a big state

Missouri is a big state a box for miles

by 4 miles of wildfire and Missouri

burned I mean when you're driving in

your car from this point to this point

on the road you pass it in four minutes

right and you're driving along you're

having a conversation with your friend

four minutes later you're done and then

turn and go four minutes the other way

that box that's what burned right and

that's what was in the news for all that

week it must have been a really slow

news week because this sounds really

really sex is like oh my gosh we've got

to do something the whole world's coming

to an end this right here is like who

cares about that why are you talking

about the spa blah blah blah we'll pick

it up from there on Wednesday