TFSX Introduction to Strategic Foresight

Summary

This introduction to strategic foresight by Yvette Montero Savety Co outlines the importance of foresight in navigating the VUCA world. It discusses the history of foresight, its role in shaping the future, and introduces the Natural Foresight Framework. The framework emphasizes adapting to change, resilience, and transformation through a process of discovery, exploration, mapping, and creation, ultimately enhancing decision-making in the present.

Takeaways

• 📚 Strategic foresight is an imperative in the VUCA world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
• 🌐 Volatility is about the rapid change in eras and economic transitions, not just technological advancements.
• 🤔 Uncertainty is addressed by overcoming 'educated incapacity', which is the illusion of certainty due to deep knowledge in a particular field.
• 🔍 Complexity is not the enemy but an opportunity; foresight helps in dealing with it rather than trying to simplify it.
• 🔮 Ambiguity is about not knowing the variables of the future, making traditional planning methods less effective.
• 🏛 The history of strategic foresight spans over a century, with various sectors employing it for long-term planning.
• 🌟 Foresight is used by well-known brands and governments, such as Disney, Intel, and Singapore, to drive their planning processes.
• 🛠 Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future but adapting to it with frameworks and tools to inform present strategies.
• 🔄 The push and pull of the future describe the spectrum of trends pushing us forward and our aspirations pulling us towards a vision.
• 🌱 The natural foresight framework is based on S-curves, providing an organic process for dealing with complex environments.
• 🔑 The framework's 'Discover' phase challenges assumptions and biases, crucial in a rapidly changing world.
• 🌐 The 'Explore' phase involves scanning the external environment for trends and emerging issues, understanding their underlying shifts and impacts.
• 🗺️ 'Mapping' in the framework is about envisioning multiple potential futures to inform better present decisions, beyond just scenario planning.
• 🏗️ The 'Create' phase focuses on integrating foresight into organizational operating systems for value creation and future readiness.
• 🤝 Strategic foresight promotes more collaborative and aspirational decision-making in the present.

Q & A

What does VUCA stand for and why is it significant in strategic foresight?

VUCA stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. It is significant in strategic foresight because it encapsulates the environment we operate in and highlights the need for a different type of operating system to navigate these conditions effectively.

How does the concept of 'educated incapacity' relate to uncertainty in strategic foresight?

Educated incapacity refers to the idea that one's deep knowledge in a specific area can make them the last to recognize changes in that field. It relates to uncertainty in strategic foresight by illustrating the challenge of overcoming biases and assumptions to adapt to new realities.

What is the difference between complexity and complication according to the script?

Complexity is the natural order of things as they grow and mature, becoming more intricate. Complication, on the other hand, is what we add to ourselves by introducing additional processes or steps to manage the growing complexity. Strategic foresight helps us deal with complexity rather than trying to simplify it.

How does strategic foresight address the issue of ambiguity in planning for the future?

Strategic foresight addresses ambiguity by creating new vistas of the future, allowing us to plan and make decisions in the present more effectively. It acknowledges that we cannot predict the future with certainty but can prepare for various potential outcomes.

What is the history of strategic foresight and how has it been used in various sectors?

Strategic foresight has been around for over a hundred years, used by for-profit and nonprofit organizations, as well as governments for planning purposes. Brands like Disney and Intel, and governments such as Singapore's, employ futurists and strategic foresight for their long-term planning.

What is the role of strategic foresight in driving adaptive, resilient, and transformative thinking?

Strategic foresight enables adaptive, resilient, and transformative thinking by providing frameworks and tools to map the future. Instead of attempting to predict the future, it helps in creating new ideas to inform strategies and decision-making in the present.

Can you explain the concept of the 'push and pull' of the future in strategic foresight?

The 'push and pull' of the future describes the spectrum of how the future exists. The 'push' side includes trends and emerging issues that drive us towards the future. The 'pull' side represents our aspirational vision or goals that we aim to achieve. Strategic foresight helps in balancing both aspects to shape a better future.

What is the 'natural foresight framework' and how does it differ from other strategic foresight methodologies?

The 'natural foresight framework' is a methodology developed with natural growth curves or s-curves, making it more organic and adaptable to complex environments. It differs from other methodologies by focusing on a process that is more aligned with the natural evolution of systems and events.

What are the key steps in the 'natural foresight framework' and what do they entail?

The key steps in the 'natural foresight framework' are Discover, Explore, Map, and Create. Discover involves challenging assumptions and biases. Explore involves scanning the external environment for trends and emerging issues. Map is about creating multiple potential futures to inform present decisions. Create focuses on understanding how to fuel organizations with foresight for value creation and measurement.

How does the 'Discover' phase of the natural foresight framework help in strategic foresight?

The 'Discover' phase helps in strategic foresight by challenging our existing assumptions and biases. It uses various tools to ensure that we are not automatically discounting new information that contradicts our current understanding, thus allowing for more informed and adaptive decision-making.

What is the purpose of the 'Explore' phase in the natural foresight framework?

The 'Explore' phase aims to scan the external environment for trends and emerging issues. It goes beyond just identifying trends to analyze the underlying value shifts and potential impacts, helping to make sense of the changing landscape and inform better decision-making.

Can you describe the 'Map' phase of the natural foresight framework and its importance?

The 'Map' phase involves thinking in multiples, acknowledging that there are an unlimited number of potential futures. It allows us to explore these different futures to make better decisions in the present. This phase is more than scenario planning; it includes other tools that help in mining the potential futures.

What does the 'Create' phase in the natural foresight framework aim to achieve?

The 'Create' phase aims to understand how to fuel organizations with foresight, focusing on value creation and measurement. It involves using tools to evaluate the health and future readiness of both individuals and organizations, with the goal of making more collaborative and aspirational decisions.