Solar em 15 - Projeções de mercado para 2026 e principais ações da ABSOLAR

Summary

In this episode of 'Solar em 15', Leonardo Félix and Rodrigo Sawaia, Executive President of AB Solar, discuss the challenges faced by Brazil's solar sector in 2025, including a decline in added power, investments, and job creation. They highlight the industry's struggles with energy generation cuts and connection issues for distributed generation systems. Looking ahead to 2026, the conversation focuses on AB Solar’s strategic goals, including improvements to legal frameworks, energy storage, and the promotion of solar energy in national programs. Despite the challenges, AB Solar remains committed to driving growth and supporting Brazil’s energy transition.

Takeaways

• 😀 The energy sector in Brazil faced significant challenges in 2025, including a 29% decline in solar power installations compared to 2024.
• 😀 In 2025, approximately 10.6 GW of solar power capacity was added, making solar the leading source of added energy in the country despite the drop in numbers.
• 😀 Despite the challenges, over R$2 billion was invested in the solar sector in 2025, though this marked a nearly 40% decrease compared to 2024's R$4 billion.
• 😀 The solar industry in Brazil generated around 320,000 green jobs in 2025, a decline from the previous year's 450,000.
• 😀 Major challenges included generation cuts for large solar plants, which disrupted investments, and the issue of power flow inversion in distributed generation systems.
• 😀 The expectation for 2026 is for similar growth to 2025, with about 10-11 GW of new solar power expected to be added, influenced by economic uncertainty and high interest rates.
• 😀 2026 is a crucial election year in Brazil, which typically leads to increased volatility, potentially affecting investments and decision-making in the energy sector.
• 😀 AB Solar plans to restructure its working groups in 2026 to improve efficiency and focus on key areas like distributed and centralized generation, energy storage, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing.
• 😀 AB Solar's priorities for 2026 include addressing the challenges in solar generation regulations, improving the implementation of the micro and mini-generation laws, and tackling issues in energy tariff policies.
• 😀 The focus for AB Solar in 2026 will also be on fostering public policies, such as promoting the integration of solar power into the 'Minha Casa, Minha Vida' program and exploring innovative technologies like agrivoltaics.
• 😀 AB Solar aims to help the solar sector recover from the challenges of 2025 by addressing issues like energy generation cuts, ensuring fair regulation, and working on the expansion of energy storage technologies.

Q & A

What was the solar energy market's performance in Brazil during 2025?

In 2025, the solar energy market in Brazil faced a significant decline. While 2024 was a record year with 15 GW of power added, 2025 saw only about 10.6-11 GW, a 29% drop. Investments in the sector also dropped by nearly 40%, from over R$4 billion in 2024 to around R$2 billion in 2025.

What were the main challenges for the solar energy sector in 2025?

Some of the key challenges in 2025 included a drop in large-scale solar projects due to generation cuts, which led to financial losses for companies. In distributed generation, there were issues with power flow reversal and difficulties in connecting systems to low and medium voltage networks.

How did AB Solar respond to these challenges?

AB Solar worked to address these challenges by advocating for solutions to the generation cuts, engaging in discussions with regulatory bodies, and aiming to resolve the issues related to power flow reversal in distributed generation.

What is AB Solar's outlook for the solar market in 2026?

AB Solar's projection for 2026 is that the market will add between 10 and 11 GW of power, similar to the performance in 2025. However, factors such as the electoral year and high interest rates may continue to pose challenges.

How does the electoral year impact the solar market?

The electoral year typically brings uncertainty and volatility to the market, as consumers, entrepreneurs, and investors tend to adopt a more conservative approach due to the political climate, which can slow down investments and growth in the sector.

What are the key actions AB Solar plans for 2026?

AB Solar has streamlined its organizational structure to focus on four key working groups: distributed generation, centralized generation, energy storage, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturers. They also plan to address regulatory challenges and advocate for the development of new technologies such as agrivoltaics and energy storage.

What is AB Solar's strategy for improving the regulatory environment for distributed generation?

AB Solar aims to enhance the implementation of the legal framework for distributed generation, addressing issues like the application of the 14.300 law, the calculation of costs and benefits for micro and mini generation, and the regulation of electricity tariffs such as tariff systems with hourly signals.

How is AB Solar working to improve the legal and regulatory framework for energy storage?

AB Solar is focused on strengthening the legal and regulatory framework for energy storage by fostering demand, collaborating with government entities on policies, and working to reduce taxation and financing barriers for energy storage projects.

What is the role of energy storage in the future of solar energy in Brazil?

Energy storage is expected to play a crucial role in expanding solar energy adoption, particularly by improving the viability of both distributed and centralized solar generation. AB Solar is focusing on driving demand for storage technology and creating a more favorable regulatory and financial environment for its growth.

What are some of the strategic areas AB Solar is focusing on for 2026?

In 2026, AB Solar is focusing on improving the integration of solar technologies with other sectors, including hydrogen energy, electromobility, and the use of solar energy in new applications like agricultural solar systems (agrivoltaics). They are also focused on monitoring regulatory changes, like the transition from the current tax framework, to safeguard the industry.