WEEKLY PREP ANALYSIS !

Summary

In this video, the speaker analyzes market trends and the impact of recent geopolitical events, including Trump’s tariffs and global tensions with Europe, Iran, China, and Venezuela. They discuss the current market consolidation, focusing on potential reversals and liquidity manipulation. The speaker shares their long-term outlook, drawing comparisons with last year’s market movements and suggesting that further retracement is likely. They also touch on upcoming news events, including major political speeches and economic reports, that could add volatility. The speaker emphasizes taking it day by day, with no trades planned for the upcoming Martin Luther King Day.

Takeaways

• 😀 The market opened with a significant gap due to news about Trump imposing tariffs in Europe, particularly impacting France, the UK, and Denmark.
• 😀 The speaker is analyzing the market's behavior over the past week and is focused on how the market will react to relevant swing points in the near future.
• 😀 A key swing point from January 2nd is being observed, and the speaker is watching for manipulation or failure to manipulate this point to determine market movement.
• 😀 The speaker discusses the market's recent consolidation phase, with liquidity being generated on both sides, and expects some kind of reversal or manipulation to occur.
• 😀 There is a possibility of the market revisiting a previous low from November 21st, but this is seen as unlikely in the short term.
• 😀 The speaker feels that there’s liquidity to move the market back up to previous highs before a potential downward retracement.
• 😀 Long-term, the speaker predicts a retracement lower due to the market being at a premium compared to the range of lows and highs since April 2025.
• 😀 There is a comparison being made with last year’s market behavior, where similar patterns occurred, suggesting that history could repeat itself in the current market conditions.
• 😀 The weekly chart is showing consolidation, and the speaker is focused on relevant swing points to watch for potential movement.
• 😀 There is a strong focus on news factors like tariffs, geopolitical situations, and economic data (like Canadian CPI) impacting market direction, and the speaker cautions that market volatility may increase this week due to these factors.

Q & A

What caused the market gap mentioned at the beginning of the transcript?

The market gap was caused by news related to President Trump's tariffs placed on Europe, particularly affecting France, the UK, and Denmark. This news led to a gap down in the market.

What is the speaker's view on the current market's consolidation?

The speaker views the current market consolidation positively, as it has been generating liquidity on both sides of the market. They are looking for a swing point to be taken out to get more clarity.

What specific market swing point is the speaker focusing on?

The speaker is focusing on the swing point marked for Friday, January 2nd. They are watching this level closely to determine the next move in the market.

What are the speaker's expectations regarding a potential market reversal?

The speaker expects a potential market reversal to occur around a relevant low if the market fails to manipulate certain levels. They anticipate that the market could continue to lower before potentially moving higher toward the previous highs.

What is the significance of the 'equal highs' mentioned by the speaker?

The speaker highlights 'equal highs' as important liquidity zones, where the market has not yet retraced. The speaker believes that these equal highs need to be addressed before a meaningful market reversal can occur.

How does the speaker relate the current market movement to last year's market behavior?

The speaker draws a parallel between the current market and the previous year's movement, where after reaching relative highs, the market manipulated those highs before expanding lower. They expect similar behavior to unfold in the current market.

What is the speaker's long-term outlook on the market?

The speaker has a long-term bearish outlook, expecting the market to retrace much lower due to the extended movement since April of the previous year. They believe the market is currently in a 'premium' range and that it is likely to move lower eventually.

What is the speaker's analysis of the market's behavior since April of the previous year?

The speaker notes that since April of the previous year, the market has been expanding, creating new highs and consolidating toward the end of the year. They expect this trend of expansion to continue, with a likely correction down the road.

What role does the news play in the market's volatility according to the speaker?

The speaker acknowledges that global news, such as issues with tariffs, Iran, China, and Venezuela, has contributed to the market's volatility. These factors are influencing the market in unpredictable ways, making it harder to forecast short-term movements.

What is the speaker's plan regarding trading on the upcoming holiday?

The speaker advises not to trade on Martin Luther King Day, as it is a bank holiday in the U.S. and the market could be unpredictable. They recommend taking the day off and returning to trading on Tuesday, assessing the market's price action.