NVDA Stock - Huge Bearish Rejection?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the speaker provides a detailed technical analysis of the stock, highlighting short-term caution amid recent pullbacks while reaffirming the long-term bullish trend. Key resistance at $183–$184 and support around $170–$175 are emphasized, with indicators like EMA, MACD, and weekly SMI signaling fading momentum. The discussion includes parallels to past patterns, semiconductor sector warnings via the SMH ETF, and a focus on trading strategies over reacting to news. Overall, Nvidia's recent retracement is viewed as a healthy correction, offering potential opportunities for traders without undermining its long-term strength.

Takeaways

• 📉 Nvidia closed down nearly 3.5% (~$174), slightly underperforming relative to the market due to Alibaba chip news.
• 📊 Short-term price is holding in the 174–175 range but is slightly below key exponential moving averages (EMAs).
• 📉 MACD is making lower lows, signaling fading short-term momentum for Nvidia.
• 🟢 Key short-term resistance lies around 176–177 (Fibonacci levels), while support is near $170 (50 EMA) and $147–150 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• ⚠️ A break below the current range could trigger a more significant decline toward the 50 EMA and lower Fibonacci levels.
• 💡 Nvidia’s recent price action mirrors prior patterns seen during past market events, indicating consolidation, breakdown, and potential bounce cycles.
• 🔴 Semiconductor ETF SMH is showing red flags with shooting star patterns; weakness in semis could negatively impact Nvidia.
• 🧠 Trading strategy emphasizes watching technical confirmations over reacting to news; price action often leads news rather than follows it.
• 📈 Despite short-term volatility, Nvidia remains fundamentally bullish in the long term, with retracements seen as buying opportunities.
• 💰 Lower price levels (~$150) may offer more attractive risk/reward setups for long-term bullish entries compared to buying near current levels (~$170).
• 📅 Weekly charts indicate momentum slowing with lower highs and lower lows; close monitoring of key support levels is essential for future moves.
• 💻 The video also promotes a YouTube membership offering daily chart updates and analysis for Nvidia, Tesla, and other stocks at different tier levels.

Q & A

What is the main focus of this Nvidia update video?

The video primarily discusses the recent performance of Nvidia stock, analyzing its current trend and technical indicators like Fibonacci levels, moving averages, and the MACD. It also explores potential future movements of the stock and general market sentiment surrounding Nvidia.

Why does the creator emphasize being 'neutral to bearish' on Nvidia in the short term?

The creator expresses caution towards Nvidia in the short term due to the stock’s current price action, which includes rejection at Fibonacci levels, a potential breakdown, and weak price momentum indicated by moving averages and the MACD. The stock is below key levels, suggesting it could continue to trend lower.

What is the significance of the 174-175 range for Nvidia stock?

The 174-175 range is a critical support zone for Nvidia. If the stock holds above this level, there could be a short-term bounce. However, if it falls below this range, the stock is expected to weaken and potentially retest lower levels, such as the 50-day EMA around $170.

What role do the exponential moving averages (EMAs) play in this analysis?

The EMAs are used to track the short-term trend and momentum of the stock. In this case, Nvidia is below its exponential moving averages, and the video suggests that the 9-day and 21-day EMAs are starting to flip bearish, which could signal a loss of upward momentum.

What does the creator mean by a 'dead cat bounce'?

A 'dead cat bounce' refers to a temporary recovery or short-term upward movement in a stock's price after a significant decline, only for the stock to resume its downward trend afterward. In this context, the creator speculates that Nvidia might experience a small rebound before continuing its downtrend.

How does the creator view the current market sentiment for the semiconductor industry?

The creator mentions the semiconductor ETF (SMH) and its recent performance, including a 'shooting star' candlestick pattern, which could be a red flag for the sector. If the SMH index experiences a down week, it could negatively impact Nvidia, as the company is a major player in the semiconductor space.

Why does the creator mention the importance of the weekly chart for Nvidia?

The weekly chart is highlighted to provide a longer-term perspective on Nvidia's price action. If Nvidia starts losing key levels on the weekly chart, particularly in the 170s, it could indicate further weakness and potential for a larger sell-off, which is critical for making decisions about entry or exit.

What does the creator mean when they say news follows price?

The creator believes that price action typically precedes news. This means that major price movements often occur before any official news is released, and news coverage typically follows those movements. In this context, the creator advises focusing on chart patterns and technical analysis rather than relying on news for trading decisions.

What is the creator’s perspective on long-term investment in Nvidia?

The creator acknowledges that while short-term trading may present challenges, Nvidia is still a strong stock in the long term. Even if it experiences a short-term retracement, it remains a fundamentally strong company with higher highs and higher lows over time.

What does the creator mean by saying they have 'no emotions' about Nvidia's stock?

The creator emphasizes that they approach trading with a detached and logical mindset, without emotional attachment to any particular stock. They are open to trading Nvidia at lower prices, as long as it presents a favorable risk-to-reward setup, and they stress that their decisions are based on chart patterns and technical signals, not personal bias or emotions.