[FULL] Bahas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Melambat, Pengangguran 'Pecah': Apa Saja Sinyalnya?

Summary

In this Kompas Bisnis episode, Asri Gunawan discusses Indonesia's economic slowdown in the first quarter of 2025, with a growth rate of 4.87%, the lowest since 2021. Experts analyze various contributing factors such as household consumption, government spending, inflation, and external factors like trade wars. The discussion also highlights unemployment concerns, particularly youth unemployment, and the impact of government programs on job creation. Economists suggest the need for budget efficiency adjustments and measures to support both the private sector and labor market. The episode explores both internal and external economic pressures faced by Indonesia.

Takeaways

• 😀 Indonesia's economic growth in Q1 2025 slowed to 4.87%, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• 😀 The economy showed fluctuating growth rates in 2024, with the first quarter at 5.11% and the fourth quarter at 5.02%.
• 😀 The 2025 State Budget targets economic growth at 5.2%, with the aim to reach 8% under President Prabowo's administration.
• 😀 Key economic drivers in Q1 2025 included household consumption (4.89%) and exports (6.78%), while government consumption shrank by 1.38%.
• 😀 Inflation showed fluctuations, with April 2025 inflation at 1.95%, higher than in earlier months like February (-0.09%).
• 😀 The government's approach to budget efficiency has led to lower public spending, contributing to a slowdown in economic growth.
• 😀 Retail sales, motorcycle spare parts, and housing sectors showed signs of weakness, indicating a long-term decline in purchasing power.
• 😀 Vietnam’s economic growth outpaced Indonesia's at 6%, with Indonesia's lower growth linked to external trade factors and internal policy inefficiencies.
• 😀 The contraction of government spending in Q1 2025 was largely due to budget savings aimed at controlling debt and deficit, impacting sectors reliant on public funds.
• 😀 Unemployment has risen, with an increase of 83,000 people reaching 7.28 million by February 2025, exacerbating youth unemployment.
• 😀 The PHK (layoff) Task Force and measures to reduce high economic costs, such as corruption and logistics expenses, are proposed solutions to support the workforce and business sector.

Q & A

What was Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2025?

Indonesia's economy grew by 4.87% annually in the first quarter of 2025, marking a slowdown compared to the first quarter of 2024, which had a growth of 5.11%.

Why is the economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 considered a significant decline?

The growth of 4.87% in the first quarter of 2025 is the lowest since the third quarter of 2021, signaling a significant economic slowdown compared to the previous year and falling below the target set by the government.

How did household consumption impact Indonesia's economic growth in Q1 2025?

Household consumption grew by 4.89% in the first quarter of 2025, contributing positively to the economy. However, it was slightly lower than the 4.91% growth in the first quarter of 2024.

What role did government consumption play in the economic growth during the first quarter of 2025?

Government consumption fell by -1.38%, a negative figure that significantly impacted economic growth. This decline was attributed to budget efficiency measures and a contraction in government spending.

What are the challenges that government consumption poses to economic growth?

The contraction in government consumption indicates a reduction in fiscal spending, which affects sectors such as accommodation, food and beverages, and other industries reliant on government expenditure. This contraction has created a challenge for sustaining economic growth.

What external factors have contributed to the slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth?

External factors such as the ongoing trade war, including tariffs imposed by the United States and China, have led to economic uncertainty. Despite some pause in tariffs, the uncertainty has impacted Indonesia's raw material imports and overall economic confidence.

How significant was the impact of the trade war on Indonesia’s economic growth?

The trade war and the resultant tariffs have caused Indonesian companies to hold back on raw material imports, reducing the growth of manufacturing industries. This signals economic hesitation as companies anticipate slower sales and reduced demand.

What does the decline in raw material imports suggest about the state of Indonesia's economy?

The 3.2% annual decline in raw material imports in March 2025 indicates that businesses are reluctant to expand due to weaker demand expectations. This reluctance to stock up on raw materials suggests a contraction in production and a slowing economy.

What is the significance of youth unemployment in Indonesia's economic landscape?

Youth unemployment is a major concern, as Indonesia has the highest youth unemployment rate in ASEAN. This issue, compounded by layoffs in the private sector, highlights the challenges in absorbing the increasing number of young people entering the job market.

What solutions were proposed to address unemployment and economic challenges in Indonesia?

To address unemployment, experts suggest increasing non-taxable income levels, offering more direct support for businesses, and reducing high economic costs. Additionally, there is a call for the government to create job fairs and accelerate efforts to absorb labor from sectors affected by layoffs.