Donald Trump and Nikki Haley last two standing in Republican primaries | Planet America | ABC News

Summary

The script discusses the 2024 U.S. presidential election race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. It analyzes Trump's New Hampshire primary win over rival Nikki Haley and Haley's vow to continue campaigning. Biden starts his campaign by focusing on abortion rights. The script also covers attempts at an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza and perspectives on the conflict. Analysts discuss both candidates' flaws, key election issues like abortion and immigration, whether the lengthy campaign favors Trump or Biden, and the viability of a two-state solution. There is some optimism about possibly unlocking Israeli-Palestinian peace talks but major hurdles remain.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nikki Haley remains defiant after New Hampshire loss, vows to continue fighting Trump
• 😮 Trump makes false claims about past election wins in NH victory speech
• 🤔 Haley increasingly targets Trump's age and mental fitness in attacks
• 👍 Biden gets a boost as exit polls show resistance to Trump in GOP ranks
• 😕 Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks break down again over prisoner swap
• 😟 US frustrated as Netanyahu dismisses two-state solution for Middle East
• 😠 Biden interrupted repeatedly by protesters at campaign abortion event
• 🤨 Trump advisor says Biden now slight favorite due to indictment factor
• 😌 Support for war still high in Israel despite casualties and critiques
• 😞 Experts say two-state solution only path ahead but both sides resistant

Q & A

What was Nikki Haley's strategy in the New Hampshire primary?

Nikki Haley's strategy was to appeal to moderates and independent voters in New Hampshire. She campaigned heavily there for months and was endorsed by the popular moderate Republican Governor Chris Sununu.

How did Donald Trump perform among different age groups in the New Hampshire primary?

Donald Trump performed better among younger voters. His worst demographic was voters over 65, among whom he won 53%. His best was voters under 30, among whom he won 58%.

What false claims did Donald Trump make in his New Hampshire victory speech?

Trump falsely claimed he had won New Hampshire 3 times, including in the 2016 and 2020 general elections. In fact, he lost New Hampshire in both of those elections.

How are Democrats trying to make abortion a key issue in the 2024 election?

Democrats are running ads focused on abortion, including an ad telling the story of a woman who had to get an abortion for medical reasons after Roe v. Wade was overturned. Biden also held a rally focused on abortion.

What are the main obstacles to a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas?

The main obstacles are disagreements over the duration of a ceasefire, the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released, and the timeline for releasing them. There is also a lack of trust between the parties.

What is Biden's goal for the Israel-Palestine conflict?

Biden wants a two-state solution with an independent Palestinian state existing peacefully alongside Israel. However, Netanyahu has rejected this.

Why do many Israelis still support the war despite casualties?

Many Israelis feel invaded and view the October 7th attack as a personal violation. There is a national psychology of feeling under threat that leads to support for military action.

What can ordinary Palestinians do to improve the situation?

Ordinary Palestinians have little ability to speak out due to restrictions from Palestinian and Israeli leadership. Support from the international community is needed to empower moderates.

How long have Trump and Biden been leading figures in US politics?

Trump has dominated Republican politics for 8 years since 2016. Biden has been a leading national figure for Democrats for decades, including 8 years as Vice President.

What happened in the New Hampshire Democratic primary?

There was no real Democratic primary. Biden's name wasn't on the ballot but he won a write-in vote over fringe candidates to avoid an embarrassing loss.

Outlines

00:00

🎥 Intro to political chat show covering primaries and foreign affairs

John Baron and CH introduce a political chat show that will cover the Republican primaries with Donald Trump's victory in New Hampshire and Nikki Haley's continued campaign. They also discuss foreign affairs including Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations and air strikes in Yemen.

05:02

🐘 Analysis of Trump's NH primary win and Haley's continued attacks

John and CH analyze Trump's 11-point victory over Nikki Haley in the NH primary. They discuss Haley's continued presence in the race despite her loss, her attacks on Trump's age and mental fitness, and Trump's angry reaction to Haley in his victory speech.

10:03

🐘 Biden's muted response to NH primary win; focus on abortion rights

Biden had a muted response to winning the NH Democratic primary, instead focusing his messaging on abortion rights in a speech with Kamala Harris. The speech was interrupted by pro-Palestinian protesters.

15:03

🐘 Discussion on whether the GOP primary race is over

John and CH discuss whether the Republican primary is effectively over after Trump's back-to-back wins in IA and NH. They analyze Haley's continued presence as a protest vote against Trump and the high numbers of GOP voters saying they won't support Trump.

20:05

🐘 Interview with former Trump advisor on state of GOP primary race

John and CH interview Sam Nunberg, a former Trump advisor, who argues Trump is the slight favorite over Biden. He analyzes Trump and Haley's ages as a campaign issue and defends Trump against claims of cognitive decline.

25:07

🌍 Hopes and challenges for Israel-Hamas ceasefire and peace

John and CH discuss attempts at an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and Gaza reconstruction to establish a Palestinian state. Netanyahu has rejected a two-state solution. US frustration grows with both sides.

30:08

🌍 Interview with former US Ambassador on Israel-Palestine conflict

John interviews former Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Kurtzer discusses Biden's desire for a ceasefire and two-state solution, and the possible opening created by the conflict.

35:09

🌍 Interview with Obama advisor on views in Israel and potential solutions

John interviews Mara Rudman, former advisor to Obama, on why the Israel-Hamas war remains popular in Israel. She argues a two-state solution is the only long-term option but will require much work.

40:12

🎤 Sign off from political chat show

John and CH sign off from the political chat show, previewing upcoming episodes on ABC TV, YouTube and as a podcast.

Keywords

💡New Hampshire primary

The New Hampshire primary is an early election in the U.S. presidential nomination process. It was the second nominating contest in the 2024 election cycle, with Donald Trump and Nikki Haley competing for the Republican nomination. Trump won the primary over Haley, but Haley vowed to continue campaigning against him.

💡comeback

Nikki Haley suggested after losing the New Hampshire primary that she could still make a comeback against Donald Trump, despite most seeing Trump as the presumptive nominee after back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Haley pointed to upcoming contests in her home state of South Carolina as an opportunity to turn things around.

💡age attacks

Nikki Haley has focused many of her attacks on Donald Trump's age and mental fitness, repeatedly questioning whether he is too old to be president. This is seen as an attempt to undermine Trump by framing him as confused or unfit for office.

💡cognitive decline

There is speculation about whether Donald Trump is experiencing cognitive decline or mental lapses. Haley has directly accused him of being "confused," while Trump denies any decline and says Biden is the one who is mentally unfit.

💡indictments

Donald Trump is facing over 90 criminal indictments for his business practices and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. These legal issues pose a threat to his campaign and general election chances.

💡abortion

With Roe v. Wade overturned, abortion rights are expected to be a major issue in the 2024 election. Biden and Democrats want to make it front and center, seeing it as an issue where Republicans and Trump are unpopular with many voters.

💡Israel-Palestine conflict

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant groups like Hamas is a foreign policy issue that could impact Biden in the election. Despite attempts at brokering ceasefires, Biden has struggled to make progress on the conflict.

💡two-state solution

Biden supports a two-state solution to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict by creating an independent Palestinian state. However, the prospects for this seem dim, with leaders on both sides currently opposed to the idea.

💡Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a major foreign policy crisis Biden is navigating. How the war and its economic ripple effects impact Americans could sway Biden's re-election chances.

💡general election

The video looks ahead to the expected general election matchup between Biden and Trump. Biden sees Trump's controversies as an advantage, while Trump hopes voter fatigue with Biden will bolster his own chances.

Highlights

First significant highlight

Second notable highlight

Third key highlight

Fourth main highlight

Fifth top highlight

Transcripts

hello there welcome to Planet America's

fireside chat I'm John Baron I'm CH this

week and then there were two or possibly

just one Donald Trump claims a second

state Nikki Haley Ponders the road ahead

and we will talk to a former Trump

advisor who says that Joe Biden is now

the slight favorite and we're going to

look at hopes for a longer lasting peace

in the Middle East as Israel and Hamas

fail to agree on ceasefire terms we're

going to speak to a former US ambassador

to Israel and a senior advisor to Barack

Obama but

first

and it was a good result for Donald

Trump in the Granite State this week he

won a comfortable 11-point win over his

last remaining serious rival Nikki Haley

now the Republican primary record

turnouts of 300,000 voters John even

more than the 287,000 in 2016 so scratch

that theory from last week that

Republicans aren't motivated I'm going

to come back to that number in a second

but as always there were some

interesting exit poles first interesting

result here the younger the voter was

the better Donald Trump did it wasn't a

huge difference mind you but Trump's

worst demographic was over 65s he won

53% of them and his best demographic was

under 30s he won 58% of them now there

weren't many under 30s only 10% of

Voters but still interesting I think it

is I guess it suggests if you are a

young Republican these days you are a

trump Republican these days he's been

dominating the for 8 years now which in

young people's lives is a long time

that's right unsurprisingly Haley won

the Undeclared voters they're the

independence she won them 64 to 35% but

Trump won a massive

74% of Republican voters and that is why

Nikki Haley simply cannot win this

primary actual Republicans don't rate

her here is some more evidence of that

when asked their opinion of who they

voted for 76% of those who strongly

favor their candidate voted for Trump

for 57% of those who have some

reservations about their candidate voted

for Haley and 89% of those who voted for

their candidate because they well don't

like the other candidate they voted for

Haley do their maths and that means

about 30 of the 43% of people who voted

for Haley don't really like her very

much so maybe she wouldn't be such a

strong general election candidate after

all mind you Trump has his own issu

admittedly there were a lot of

independent voters in this primary were

but 42% of Voters in a Republican

primary said that Trump would not be fit

to be president if he was convicted of a

crime now sure many of them might be

convinced otherwise during this year but

42% is a lot to start with and this

would this part here would be really

making Trump nervous is from AP votecast

John guess what share on New Hampshire

Independents who voted in the Republican

primary said they will not vote for

Trump regardless of whether he is

convicted or not in the general election

well I'm assuming from your turn of

voice it is a high number to make it

interesting I would guess maybe one in

three 68% John of Independence in their

primary the Republican primary said they

will not vote for Trump 21% of rep

Republicans in the New Hampshire primary

said that they will not vote for Trump

even if he's not convicted I imagine

that's probably the more important

figure even though it's not as

eye-catching because well in an ordinary

year Independence who would never

support Trump might have actually voted

in a proper Democratic primary and there

wasn't one we'll talk about that in a

bit as well but that one in five

Republicans won't vote for Trump that

will be causing concern absolutely and

Fox News they they analysis said that

overall 35% of the voters on the New

Hampshire primary total all voters said

they will not vote for Trump in the

general election now there are two

possible explanations you've already

touched on one uh the well the the one

that Democrats will be hoping for is

that the Republican party is cracking up

and that and that Trump actually has a a

large area of resistance against him in

the general election and he's got a

problem the other one you've touched on

maybe there's no problem here at all

Maybe we're seeing is look at that

record turnout 300,000 voters maybe

50,000 of them where people just showed

up just to vote against Trump they would

they would never support Republicans

they they were just registering a

protest that is possible there's no way

we can know at this point in time where

the Republicans have a problem or not we

will know in South Carolina because

South Carolina over the past has had

about 18% of moderates and liberals

voting if in a month's time there that's

25% or that's 30% then we know there is

a big protest vote happening if not then

we know Donald Trump might have a

problem yeah and that's consistent with

what we've seen really through Trump's

political career as far back as it goes

to 2016 he has this incredible power to

motivate people to vote for him who

would otherwise not normally vote but he

has an even greater power to motivate

people to vote against him only once in

2016 did the prot Trump vote outweigh

the anti-trump Trump vote and to an

extent then it might have been a

combination of other factors including

Hillary Clinton's unpopularity and the

Comey letter to Congress and a whole

bunch of other things that could have

tipped it to him so it is a fascinating

Dynamic to watch and also we are seeing

an incredibly negative phase in the

campaign in the last week since it

became head-to-head Haley versus Trump

the New Hampshire primary result did

come after a frantic final week of

campaigning and Trump well it started

off with a bit of a boost from former

rivals first there was an endorsement

from Senator Tim Scott and then after he

dropped out Governor Ronda santz we need

a president who will restore Law and

Order we need Donald Trump I've had

disagreements with Donald Trump such as

on the Corona virus pandemic and his

elevation of Anthony fouchy Trump is

superior to the current incumbent Joe

Biden that is clear he has my

endorsement because we can't go back to

the old Republican guard of yesty year a

repackage form of warmed over

corporatism that Nikki Haley represents

yeah and that speech there was tweeted

out with this inspirational quote

attached Success is Not final failure is

not final it is the courage to continue

the counts that's by Winston Churchill

very inspirational indeed except for one

Minor Detail now you might recall that

Ronda Sanders went to war against Beer

Company Budweiser last year after they

used a transgender spokesperson for a

marketing campaign well Budweiser got

the last laugh because that's a Ed

Winston Churchill quote there wasn't

actually said by Winston Churchill turns

out it came from a Budweiser ad in

1938 and it's funny how these things

work out it's a very common

misconception online that that's a

Winston chill quote and that's where the

S campaign sort because they are

permanently online but John I was

wondering if you have any thoughts about

how the santis went from being the

future according to the New York Post to

yesterday's news within 14 months one of

the things about this very long

presidential campaign process the

primary process and so on is it does

have a way of finding candidates out you

get tested in States like Iowa and New

Hampshire when like Ronda Sanders did

you go to all 99 counties uh and you

meet people in small groups of a few

dozen or a few hundred you talk to

people the media is scrutinizing your

interactions do you relate well with

just ordinary voters or not and DeSantis

was not good at that and he was not good

at that uh when he then you know tried

to relate to voters through the medium

of uh televised debates he looked

awkward he he couldn't smile

authentically and there were some

profound problems that he had now

policies are important personalities and

just the Optics of these candidates when

you're auditioning somebody to be

president of the United States it's not

like a governor or a senator or

something that you pay a little bit of

attention to you really scrutinize these

people do I see them on Mount Rushmore

one day in the case of Ronda Sanders I

think it was quite simple lots of

reasons for it but the biggest reason

was Ronda santz the Mount Rushmore is

safe for now look there's a lot of

conventional wisdom out there that the

reason he lost was essentially because

of the indictments right that the moment

the indictments came down Trump was

never going to lose uh there is some

evidence for that if you look at the

polling averages of the various

candidates you can see Trump had a big

boost when the first indictment came

down uh back in the end of March early

April uh from New York the Alvin brag

one you can see it's a huge jump there

and the Sans had a little will drop but

what I'm looking at is desantis's line

you can see that graph starts in January

last year it's just a constant straight

line down from the beginning his Peak

was essentially when people got to know

first saw him after the midterms and the

more they got to know him the less they

liked him so to me the indictments

didn't help uh his tactics in Iowa may

or may not have worked whatever the

debates may or may not have been good

but essentially there's something

fundamentally wrong with him as a

candidate I think that the more people

saw him the less they liked him and the

strategy was a problem as well because

desantis's strategy in trying to win

Trump voters was not to go too hard on

Donald Trump so DeSantis uh didn't

attack Donald Trump in a full-throated

fashion he talked about these being

politically motivated indictments he

could have said in May of last year we

cannot nominate a candidate who is going

to be a criminal I like Donald Trump I

support him in the past but we just

can't go back there time to turn the

page he could have gone in harder he

didn't do that I think that was his

other mistake as well as just Ron being

wrong well conservatives actually say

the opposite they say he could have

defended Trump more that he had a bit of

half and half now I don't know who's

right between you and the conserv like I

said I'm not sure either a right I'm

looking at that line it just keeps going

down and after the indictments I think

it's just wrong now D saying he could

never win but there's something about

his candidacy that he needs to work on

fundamentally I feel looking at that

line yeah and and in very simple terms

it's hard to put yourself forward as an

alternative to Donald Trump when there's

Donald Trump and you can have him unless

these criminal indictments get hold of

him first but one of the big issues

leading up to the primary in New

Hampshire this week was whether at 77

years of age Donald Trump is starting to

slip is he even up to the job for a

second term after years of questioning

Joe Biden's mental acuity Donald Trump

is now facing serious doubts about his

State of Mind being fueled by slips like

this where Trump was talking about Nancy

Pelosi back on January 6 in the capital

r but he kept getting her name wrong by

the way they never report the crowd on

January 6 you know Nikki Haley Nikki

Haley Nikki Haley you know they did you

know they destroyed all of the

information all of the evidence

everything deleted and destroyed all of

it all of it because of lots of things

like Nikki Haley is in charge of

security we offered her 10,000 people

soldiers National Guard whatever they

want they turned it down they don't want

to talk about it the reality is he was

confused he was confused the same way he

said Joe Biden was going to start World

War

II he was confused the same way that he

said he ran against President

Obama it was Hillary Clinton yeah saying

that the potential nominee of your party

is confused that's a pretty big call for

Nikki Haley to be making right now and

after the primary was called Haley made

a very defiant concession speech

suggesting that she is still very much

in this for the long haul this race is

far from over there are dozens of States

left to

[Applause]

go and the next one is my sweet state of

South Carolina

and certainly chz Nikki haly isn't

letting up in her attacks on her former

boss she is now repeatedly making this

argument that of all the Republicans out

there she is the most electable with

Donald Trump Republicans have lost

almost every competitive election we

lost the Senate we lost the house we

lost the White House we lost in 2018 we

lost in 2020 and we lost in 2020

the worst kept secret in politics is how

badly the Democrats want to run against

Donald

Trump Trump's a loser he's a loser yeah

Haley supporters calling Trump a loser

from the crowd there would not have gone

down at all well at maral Lago and as

well as attacking Trump's mental Fitness

and rep referring repeatedly to the

chaos of Trump's presidency uh you think

that this is really B ing Trump now

because his tone was entirely different

his victory speech after New Hampshire

he was cranky he was sirly he was angry

compare that to the kind of Kumbaya

unifying speech of just a week earlier

after he won in Iowa take a look at this

I said I can go up and I can say to

everybody oh thank you for the victory

it's wonderful it's or I can go up and

say who the hell was the impostor that

went up on the stage before and like

claimed a victory she did very poor

actually she had to win the governor

said she's going to win she's going to

win she's going to win then she she

failed badly look there's a bit of mind

reading here from me but I'm guessing

that Trump's annoyance wasn't so much

about Haley saying that she's more

electable than him so much as her really

doubling down on that Trump's not

mentally fit line I think he would have

hated that have a look the other day

Donald Trump accused me of not providing

security at the capital on January 6th

now I've long called for mental

competency tests for politicians over

the age of

[Applause]

[Music]

75 Trump claims he'd do better than me

in one of those tests maybe he would

maybe he wouldn't but if he thinks that

then he should have no problem standing

on a debate St with

me and that was the grab that all the

news programs ran on the night of the

New Hampshire primary Trump would have

hated that I reckon you particularly

hated hearing that audience member

yelling out

jerryatric the problem for Trump though

is by Haley going so hard on these old

person attacks she mainstreams them the

Democrats have been trying to run these

attacks for ages no one's bit soon as

Haley starts running them another

Republican it gets in the newspapers

they're everywhere and this is why Trump

wants to end this primary now so my

question to you John is is he right is

this primary over effectively well if

this were a normal year then you would

say a republican candidate who wins Iowa

and New Hampshire only incumbents have

ever done that in the past so Trump as a

technically non-incumbent winning those

two you'd have to say it is almost

certainly over that being said we''re

only talking about a couple of dozen

delegates for each of the two leading

candidates so far they need over a

thousand so there's a long way to go the

question is does Nikki Haley really

think that she's got enough momentum

from a third place in Iowa and a second

place in New Hampshire to suddenly win

South Carolina her home state if she

doesn't win South Carolina her home

state it's going to look pretty bad and

it's not going to help her on super

Tuesday but if she does stay in through

South Carolina and super Tuesday as well

why is she staying in is it because she

thinks that one of these criminal cases

is going to derail Trump's campaign and

she can say well I came second not you

know I'm not going to quit a week after

Ron quit because that puts us on a par

at a broken convention hypothetically

instead it says well I was I was the

other candidate that got 40% support

throughout the primary so maybe that's

the play or maybe the people that are

bankrolling Nikki Haley like her

supporters really hate Trump and would

rather see Joe Biden be president for

four more years or Carmela Harris than

Donald Trump for four more years we'll

find out what Nikki Haley's play is soon

but it could also be in two or three

days she'll get a look at a South

Carolina poll that has it down by 30

points and says you know what I'm done

that may be the case I like for us worth

I do think it's effectively over I think

yes they've only voted in two small

states so far but honestly if she's

going to win anywhere it would be New

Hampshire everything was going well for

there her there she was she had

campaigned there for months Trump

campaigned almost not at all the last

week he's been in court while she's been

campaigning against him she was endorsed

by the popular moderate Governor

extremely popular Governor Chris Nunu

who was not just endorsing her but

campaigning next to her they were

attached at the hip for weeks and he's a

great campaigner she appeals

particularly the moderates she won in

7422 well guess what New Hampshire has a

lot of moderates uh 46% of the fields

were Undeclared uh she also appeals

particularly to college educated New

Hampshire is eighth in America as far as

college education goes um she had also

the New Hampshire has New Hampshire has

a culture of Define Iowa they like to do

the opposite of Iowa and they like to El

moderates she had and she still by 11

points so to me that was a huge she's

where John Kasich was in in 2016 as as

the runner up in a in a state where

you're never going to be second again

you're going to be a distant third or

fourth you're going to be getting 30% of

the vote at best and you look what's

coming up the next thing is Nevada where

she's not even registered in the actual

contest Trump is running unopposed so

he's going to win that she's in some

other pool for some reason I don't

understand then you got South Carolina

she's the governor of yes the

ex-governor of yes but that means they

know her and she's still 30 points down

even though they know her so how is she

going to change their mind it is an Open

Primary you get Democrats uh who can

vote in there but traditionally a lot

more Republicans and conservatives vote

in there and they don't appeal to her

the most optimistic way of Haley looking

at South Carolina is the Obama 2008

Playbook where Barack Obama was polling

very poorly in South Carolina even even

though African-Americans make up the

majority of the democratic electorate

there it took Obama winning in Iowa

coming a close second to Hillary in you

Hampshire for African-American voters to

stop supporting Hillary Clinton because

you remember African-Americans had a

long and abiding tie to particularly

Bill Clinton Tony Morrison describing

him as the first black president well

they they were then convinced that oh

Barack Obama is the real deal he can

play on the national stage we will

support him so Hillary Nikki Hy may be

hoping for a a switch like that but

that's why I think these the polls that

she sees in the next few days will tell

her if that's happening or not you know

what Obama had he had money she's going

to have so much less money than Trump

over the next month uh he's going to

dominate her on the airwaves and on top

of that every single interview she does

next month that half the questions will

be when are you going to drop out Fox

and Friends conducted an interview with

her on the day of New Hampshire where

every question was when are you going to

drop out so that's what she she's going

to give her the stink of of death right

so so it's not going to be easy for her

but I do have a provisor if if it was

normal she should just drop out right

now and maybe she will but given what I

said before about the resistance to

Trump if she's decided to go Chris

Christie and to become the leader of the

resistance against Trump then she should

just go as long as she can that makes

perfect sense let's see how it builds

and we'll know if she's if she's

planning to do that in the next week or

two let's see how she campaigns does she

become more negative does she keep on

going age or does she try and win over

Republican voters by putting herself

forward we'll see yeah well that's the

play if she wants to run for president

again in 2028 which looks like she does

that puts her in a much stronger

position because she's not going to be

Trump's VP but whoever is Trump's VP

will be the front runner for 2028

because Trump cannot serve another term

after that we'll see before we move on

though there's one thing that I wanted

to point out it was a very weird speech

not just angry but weird cognition aside

he literally started his speech with an

out andout falsehood a lie take a listen

to this you know we won New Hampshire

three times now three

three we win it every time we win the

primary we win the generals we've won it

and it's a very very special place to me

it's very important yeah it is certainly

true that Donald Trump won the primaries

in New Hampshire 2016 John Kasich 2020

had a challenge from Bill weld the

former Massachusetts governor beat him

easily and defeating Nikki Haley this

week does mean Trump has won all three

New Hampshire primers but he said he won

the general as well that's the

presidential elections of November of

2016 and 2020 and that is just flat out

wrong he did not win those elections in

2020 he lost to Joe Biden by over seven

points in 2016 he lost to Hillary

Clinton it was a very narrow loss but he

still lost he has never won New

Hampshire at the national level and then

there was another B claim where he

suggested that New Hampshire's Governor

you're talking about Chris sonunu who

endorsed Nikki Haley she he said well

sonunu is on drugs and probably worse

still from Trump's point of view he's

unpopular you have the very the now very

unpopular governor of this state this

guy he's got to be on something I've

never seen anybody with

energy he's like uh Hopscotch don't what

he means by Hopscotch there maybe you

think sonunu is jumping around the state

on one leg but polls show that sonunu is

actually the most popular governors in

America 63% support that's more than 20

points ahead of Trump's average

favorability so again malaky and

speaking of polls Trump in that same

speech claimed that he was leading in

South Carolina by 50 points now in the

average of polls it's 30 points the best

ever poll his 35 points up but it's

still a big big lead and yet he just

makes up this completely fictional

number and it's well it is it is frankly

bizarre it's something that Trump seems

to do time and time again and why was he

doing it why was he feeling as so he had

to kind of puff himself up I feel as

though he was put in that mood because

of the way that Haley has been attacking

him undermining him saying that he's you

know basically he's losing his marbles

and she was up and I said wow she's

doing uh like a speech like she won

imagine somebody losing an election and

then acting as though they had won that

election that is just terrible isn't it

John where have you been for the last8

years this is what he does he's winning

every poll by a th000 points everyone's

who everyone loves him all his opponents

everyone hates them this is just what

Trump does you know having said that

it's probably you're probably making a

good point it's probably good that

you're doing this because we did learn

something very valuable in New Hampshire

I find in life you can't let people get

away with okay you can't you

just can't do that hey I don't make the

rules wherever you want Trump from his

lips to God's ears President Biden was

involved in a weird primary of his own

in New Hamshire this week because the

Democratic party wanted to strip the

granite state of their first in the

nation primary handing that to South

Carolina instead the Democrats Biden was

not technically on the ballot there were

Longshot rivals on that ballot Dean

Phillips Marian Williamson were both

there there was a campaign to have

voters write in Biden's name on the

ballots you have to go all the way down

the list of of declared candidates

ticket box and then right in Joe Biden

at the bottom of it there's a concern

that maybe there'd be not a lot of

people doing that and he could actually

lose this or it could be a close run

election and it could look on paper

really bad even though he was not

actively campaigning there as well as

not being on the ballot yeah in the end

though Biden did do well enough as the

results came in so desaster avoid it and

good to see verman Supreme is still

running in New Hampshire primaries as

well Joe Biden meanwhile certainly fired

the stus pistol on his presidential

campaign this week you're not kidding

about that one this is how he responded

to his primary Victory remarkably just

as you were coming to us his team in

Wilmington the campaign team put out a

statement it has nothing to do with his

successful wrin campaign in New

Hampshire uh his first win this cycle

instead it's just about Trump the the

campaign manager says tonight's results

confirm Donald Trump has all but locked

up the GOP nomination and the election

denying anti-freedom Maga movement has

completed its takeover of the Republican

party now messing around John rting the

general election campaign there Trump

probably should have done the same thing

to be honest yeah clearly Biden is

relishing the idea of a rematch against

Trump rightly or wrongly Hillary Clinton

Once Upon a Time was relishing taking on

Donald Trump in a presidential election

clearly from Biden's first campaign

event as well it was with VP Kamala

Harris he wants to Ed the issue of

abortion very much front and center in

this campaign didn't go entirely

smoothly though President Biden was

interrupted about a dozen times during

his speech by Pro Palestinian activists

who were in turn then answered by chance

from Biden supporters for four more

years but the whole thing was pretty

messy take a look Joel and I had a

chance to sit

down more more

I told you how proud We were of your

courage man of standing up and speaking

out on such a personal issue to help so

many

[Music]

[Applause]

women so as a kickoff event that is uh

both signals clearly the importance of

the abortion issue for Democrats in 2024

but also a reminder that when you're

outd doing traditional on the stump

campaigning for Joe Biden uh things can

get a little bit messy at times they can

but one thing you can't predict is as

you say the Democrats want this to be

about abortion Republicans want it to be

about immigration Democrats abortion and

you know that because they're already

running their general election

advertising like this I never thought

that I would need an abortion for a

planned pregnancy but I did two years

ago I became pregnant with a baby I

desperately wanted at a routine ultr

sound I learned that the fetus would

have a fatal condition and that there

was absolutely no no chance of survival

in Texas you are forced to carry that

pregnancy and that is because of Donald

Trump overturning roie Wade the choice

was completely taken away I was to

continue my pregnancy putting my life at

risk it's every woman's worst nightmare

and it was absolutely unbearable we need

leaders that will protect our rights and

not take them away and that's Joe Biden

and kamla Harris that lady by the way

Austin Denard her case went to court so

we know a lot about it uh there was no

serious suggestion that she was facing

death which is the reason why Texas

would not allow her to get an abortion

that's their abortion laws but what she

say is absolutely correct about her baby

there's no chance of it surviving and

that's what makes it such a incredibly

powerful ad and we will see many many

many more of them over the next 10

months John yeah just quickly um people

are now thinking well is this just going

to be a rerun of 2020 between Trump and

Biden it's a rematch for sure it's not a

rerun we got two historically old

candidates running for a second 4-year

term both as quasy incumbents the big

difference of course this time is it's

not a CO election at least we hope not

at this stage so it we will see a lot

more of these candidates whether we want

to or not the question is do voters like

Donald Trump the more they see him or

not there's some suggestion that they do

not uh and they're not crazy about Joe

Biden but the question about you know

whether Joe Biden is mentally up to the

job whether Donald Trump is mentally up

to the job whether these are also good

people or bad people these are the

questions that a lot of Voters will make

their choices based on as well as issues

such as the right to choose to have an

abortion or not but for more on the

state of the Republican race is it over

or not and this likely general election

rematch we're joined by Sam nunberg he

worked with Donald Trump before the 2016

election he supported Ronda STIs in this

campaign Sam welcome back to the fir

side chat thank you for having me so Sam

you saw Donald Trump this week was he

contented with an 11-point win in New

Hampshire was he really hoping maybe for

more like a 20-point win to knock Nikki

haly right out of this contest he wasn't

as happy as he was after Iowa for sure

Well you certainly you certainly took

the point I was going to make and and

last uh last week in after the Iowa

caucus he came out and he was

magnanimous and he uh and he said that

they that Nikki Haley and Ronda santis

ran very good races and it's time to

unite Nikki Haley smartly coming out

extremely early after the race was

called for Donald Trump she didn't wait

long she came out to give her speech and

she and she attacked Donald Trump and

was very negative and promised to go on

into South Carolina so what you saw were

the two uh different uh Donald Trumps

and those are really the two different

types of Donald Trumps that will decide

the general election or we'll have a

major factor in the general election if

it's not already baked for Joe Biden to

win Sam I think everyone agrees that

Nikki Haley is not going to be the

Republican nominee do you think it's a

good idea for her to keep on campaigning

do I think she's going to win South

Carolina no but it's also I believe

going to be a a smaller uh it's going to

be a tighter race than most people think

and and she'll want to continue on as

long as she can continue to make the

case that she's within Striking Distance

in the states and uh she wants to be

able to have the most uh delegates and

to say that she

ultimately uh no matter what would have

come in number two in the race in and

then would have the right to the

nomination in her view should Donald

Trump not be able to be the nominee Sam

there's no doubt that former president

Trump has performed strongly in these

first two caucuses and primaries but in

those exit polls it suggests anywhere

between a third and maybe as much as a

half of Republican voters would deem him

unfit to be president were he to be

convicted of one of these 91 indictments

that he's facing how big a concern is

that heading towards November do you

think it's funny because when you talk

to a lot of Democrats and and uh people

colleagues in the industry that I talk

to that have worked on presidential

campaigns that are not directly involved

with Joe Biden they all think Donald

Trump is the slight favorite when you

talk to people like me that don't work

for Donald Trump and that are in this

business on my side I would say Joe

Biden is a slight favorite they are both

two very very flawed candidates and um

that indictment is gives Joe Biden the

right not to have to run on his record

and not to have to be uh not to have to

quote unquote be the incumbent with a

certain segment of Voters or and make it

and he can continue to then make the

election a referendum on Donald Trump

now Nikki H's been doing more in the

last week to laund the Trump is old

attacks than the Democrats have done for

the last six months do you think that's

actually hurting Trump or does it just

not matter when he's running against Joe

Biden in the general election if age is

going if age is going to be an issue and

it's going to be the deciding issue to a

voter I can't imagine Donald Trump's

going to lose that argument Donald Trump

may be 78 but he doesn't look 78 Joe

Biden is 81 he looks like he's 120 years

old Donald Trump you know whatever

problems he has when if he makes some

mistakes or rhetorical flourishes when

he talks they're nothing like Jo Biden

and the Optics are when you see Joe

Biden um you know wandering around

issues like that so if age is the factor

um if age is going to be the deciding

factor uh I don't think that that's a

winning issue Sam you worked with Donald

Trump for years you know him well why do

you think he makes demonstrably false

statements such as he did numerous times

during that speech including the number

of times that he claimed to have won New

Hampshire in the general election is

that a sign as somewhat suggest of

cognitive decline is it as others would

suggest a sign that he is just a

pathological liar I I wouldn't say

Donald Trump is having cognitive uh I

don't I don't believe he has cognitive

decline I want to be clear about that I

think Joe Biden has a lot of cognitive

decline and that's Joe Biden's issue not

Donald Trump's uh Donald Trump is a

Salesman Donald Trump um believes in a

Donald Trump believes in what we call in

the legal profession puffery and uh he's

a marketer you could say he'll say his

response would be when his response will

be either I won the Primary in New

Hampshire twice or well I won the well I

should have won New Hampshire I don't I

don't think it was more that uh a flat

out lie I think it I think it maybe

maybe it was something along the lines

of he uh I I I didn't hear it by the way

but I but I don't think that it's

something where he's incog I want to be

clear Donald Trump is not in cognitive

decline that's Joe Biden's problem not

Donald Trump Sam yes but he did say it

and he said other things that are

patently untrue so my question is why

does he say these things I Donald Trump

is a is a master salesman he lives in an

alternate reality uh a reality of his

own making it's a reality that a lot of

people uh within the Republican party uh

agree with him on and live in it as well

um I did not I did not see that but I

I've seen it reported um but I and all I

would say is he's wrong he did not win

New Hampshire I don't want to be in the

business of of defending the fact that

he said he won New Hampshire and he

didn't win New Hampshire he lost it

twice in the general but he doesn't have

cognitive decline I'm G to be clear

that's Joe Biden's problem not Donald

Trump's finally Sam this is going to be

a long general election campaign like 10

months long at a time when the public

seems to be sick of both these guys so

who do you think that favors I think it

favors the candidate that is able to not

be seen in the public now much in other

words if Donald Trump is willing to stay

in the sidelines if Donald Trump is

willing to sit in Mar logo if Donald

Trump is willing to just keep posting on

true social and not X because nobody

reads truth social and people will just

be focused on Joe Biden that would give

the advantage to Donald Trump the

problem is is that he's kind of

incapable of doing that right um so I so

it it it does it does favor the

candidate that is least seen frankly

which is ironic Sam nunberg always good

to get your insights thank you for

having a fireside chat thank

you a successful record in foreign

affairs is no guarantee that an American

president will be elected for a second

term but failures can help to Doom their

hopes for four more years Jimmy Carter

presided over peace between Israel and

Egypt with the Camp David Accords in

1978 yet was brought down by inflation

in the Iran hostage crisis two years

later George Bush presided over the fall

of the Berlin War the end of the Cold

War the collapse of the Soviet Union

Operation Desert Storm ousted Iraqi

forces from Kuwait yet he too was undone

by a struggling economy in election year

and right now President Biden is hoping

that low unemployment easing inflation

and petrol prices strong growth figures

will start to be felt around more

American kitchen tables it's not showing

up right now and he also knows that his

handling of the conflicts in Ukraine and

Gaza

could help to seal his fate in November

if voters feel that he's not only unable

to make their lives better economically

but the world safer as well this week

there was perhaps a glimmer of hope that

a longer term ceasefire between the

Israelis and Hamas could be close at

hand one that could even create an

opening to establish a Palestinian state

which if it happened would certainly be

seen as a crowning achievement of Joe

Biden's long career Israel has given

Hamas a proposal through qari and

Egyptian mediators that would include up

to two months of a pause in fighting as

part of a multiphase deal that would see

all the remaining 136 hostages released

in exchange Israel would release a

pre-negotiated amount of Palestinian

prisoners and the redeployment of

Israeli Defense Forces so that some

would be moved out of main population

centers and would allow a gradual return

of Palestinian civilians to Gaza City

and the northern Gaza Strip but is sadly

so often the case CH those glimmers of

Hope will soon extinguish uh through

Egyptian intermediaries Hamas dismissed

the prospect of a two-month ceasefire in

return for the release of the hostages

uh and then from the Israeli side as

well there was a stiffening of rhetoric

so it didn't seem as though much

progress had been made on either front

yeah meanwhile America has been trying

the entire time to push for ceasefires

and to push in particular for a

two-state solution Biden is very fixated

on the two-state solution then Yahoo

just comes out and says no no it's

two-state solution sorry

and I think that would have been quite

frustrating to to America uh we

certainly saw in the last couple of

weeks them becoming increasingly public

in their desire for Israel to wrap the

war up I think expressing their

frustration we have been talking to them

intensely about a transition to low

intensity operations we believe it's the

right time for that transition uh and

we're talking to them about doing that

and I should say as well at the same

time Hamas have also said no to a

two-state solution and they've promised

to attack more as well so you can see

the frustration and mistrust building

between all parties at this point in

time John yeah indeed meanwhile the US

and British forces continue to conduct

more air strikes against the houti

militants in Yemen uh they've been

trying to uh block shipping through the

Red Sea and the sewers canal in recent

times with some success uh and these air

strikes well it's hard to gauge their

level of success at this stage but it

does still raise the prospect of a wider

regional conflict but for more

on this issue I spoke to Daniel curer

he's a former United States ambassador

to Egypt that was during the Clinton

Administration more recently he was US

ambassador to Israel in the Bush

Administration it was reported this week

that President Biden and prime minister

Netanyahu spoke for the first time in

over a month that surprised me did it

surprise you it was actually surprising

how often the president had spoken to

the Prime Minister before this uh every

few days after October 7th clearly the

president was trying to establish the

kind of uh relationship with Netanyahu

that would allow him to ask Netanyahu to

do hard things but as we understand it

the phone call before this week ended um

rather unhappily I think the president

was a bit upset that Netanyahu was U not

listening not paying attention and

certainly not responding to what the

president was asking you talk there

about Biden wanting is Isel to do hard

things what sort of things do you mean

well I think primary issue on the

president's mind involved the

humanitarian situation the civilian

casualties uh the president expressed

from the beginning uh great

understanding uh over Israel's right to

self-defense and the fact that it was

going to uh act militarily in a very

tough manner to try to debilitate uh and

maybe even decapitate Hamas but uh as

the the war unfolded after October 7th I

think the president became increasingly

concerned over the level of Civilian

casualties and uh the fact that U as the

bombing campaign continued humanitarian

distress uh increased uh exponentially

and I think that's what the president

was hoping that he could get some uh

responsiveness from Netanyahu Ambassador

Israel proposed a ceasefire for two

months this week with of all hostages in

that time but that soon devolved into

both sides calling for the destruction

of the other so where does that leave us

well the good news is that they're

actually engaging again there had been a

period of several weeks when there

seemed to be no uh engagement at all on

this question of hostages ceasefire

humanitarian paw and so forth so the

fact that they're exchanging what are uh

certainly uh uh positions that neither

side can accept in Toto uh is a good

thing uh now the hard work has to be

undertaken probably a combination of

cutter uh the United States Egypt maybe

some others trying to narrow the

positions uh Israel will obviously have

to compromise on the length of a

ceasefire and uh how quickly hostages

can be or will be returned and for what

price and Hamas is going to have to

compromise on the fact that it's going

to have to lay down arms and uh

basically uh uh stop fighting on its end

and engage on on the release of hostages

so there's hard things for both sides to

do but uh at least they're talking now

President Biden of course has been

raising the prospect of a two-state

solution coming out of this conflict

Netanyahu has basically said in no way

never will happen certainly not on his

watch is there any way in your view that

this leads to a resolution and the

creation of a Palestinian State well one

of the great ironies of this war is that

the horrific Massacre on October 7th May

and I underline the word may unlock a

process which has not been successful

until now to lead to a uh independent

Palestinian State living side by side

with Israel you know that effort had

been stalled for for many years uh in

large part because of uh lack of

leadership both in Palestine and in

Israel um and the uh unwillingness of

either side to to budge from very

Hardline positions uh but it's now back

on the agenda it doesn't suggest that we

can get there quickly it doesn't suggest

that it'll be easy but uh people are now

talking about it again I can tell you

from a personal standpoint uh for a

while I thought I was the only person in

Washington who would mention a two-state

solution and now it's on everybody's

mind and everybody's talking points so

uh I think we may be uh we may have an

opening uh to restart a process a very

long process that will go hand inand

with Gaza

reconstruction and Mara Rodman was

President Barack Obama's Deputy

assistant advisor for National Security

Affairs and she also worked for the

special Envoy for Middle East peace at

the state department so I asked her why

polls are suggesting the war is still

popular in Israel even now so I've

talked to a lot of different people from

across the political Spectrum in Israel

and um as a people right now they have a

national psychology of of having been

invaded I think further underscored by

just the brutal nature um and the very

personal nature of the kinds of uh

crimes that were committed including um

the rape of women and probably also of

of men so the the most direct kind of

violation and it is such a small country

that that is it is a national psychology

because almost everyone knows or is one

degree or is or is one degree removed

from um someone who is directly in the

path of this Terror and this Invasion

and so you really can't um underscore

enough just what that does to uh the

psyche of a country so that they are

deeply um they are deeply scared of just

what uh an organization like Hamas uh

that is literally walking distance um

from some Key Parts key communities

within Israel uh deeply scared of what

they're capable of and I think in some

cases it prevents it is it is preventing

or blinding them from seeing um both

what is happening to so many innocent

civilians in Gaza Palestinians in Gaza

you know obviously the vast bulk of the

population not associated with Hamas uh

and also um makes it harder for them to

see why so many of the rest of us in the

rest of the world and the rest of the

region are saying listen you need a

pathway to two states and a Palestinian

State alongside an Israeli state to

actually make you Israelis more secure

uh but that will take having the kind of

leader who believes in that and can help

them get there uh and that is not the

current leader that they have let me ask

you is there any other realistic

long-term alternative for the Middle

East other than a two-state solution in

your view and if so what could it be in

my view there's not obviously there are

people with other views um many of whom

right now are palines and Israelis uh

living in in the area so it's going to

take uh a lot of

work a lot of resources and a lot of

smarts uh from folks through throughout

the International Community to help

Israelis and Palestinians believe that

they will both be more secure both

peoples will be more secure with two

states side by side side by side that

there's a way of getting to that and I

say this because to me it's not about

negotiations starting tomorrow I don't

think either peoples are ready for it

and I think think frankly neither has

leaders um that are capable of it but

it's uh a matter of looking at how you

work to uh

figure out what both people's need to

feel more secure and how uh the

International Community can come

together with Israelis and Palestinians

to start uh showing that putting some

some positive marks on the on the ground

so to speak um to help get them there

and help to build up uh and support

those who would lead both peoples uh in

that direction uh but it it's not

instantaneous anous uh it's I think for

those of us on the outside who may feel

frustrated that it seems so obvious I

think we have to appreciate just how

different it is when you're uh living

their dayto day if you're a Palestinian

who isn't a big fan of the war and isn't

a big fan of Israel and isn't a big fan

of Hamas what can you possibly do in the

short term or the long term to improve

your life well first of all you've just

described many Palestinians I know no

love lost with Palestinian leadership or

with isra leadership and real real um

concerns about Hamas and and frankly the

Extremes in both peoples

uh what can they do that they can't

publicly speak out at this point um for

a variety of reasons I would say if

you're a Palestinian who doesn't like

fataa the the basis of the palestin

authority leadership you have a little

more ability to speak out publicly but

not a lot and with under heras control

you couldn't speak out at all in terms

of disagreement

uh so that on their own there's not a

lot they can do which is why I suggest

that uh those of us on the outside need

to find ways to create space to get some

winds on the ground to have the many

people who I know have those views

inside um be at a place where they can

see some hope moving forward and can

feel more comfortable than publicly

expressing as well where they are Mara

rman thank you so much for answering a

series of impossible questions no

problem thanks a lot

and that is all the time we have for

tonight's fireside chat Planet America

returns next Wednesday night 9:30 p.m.

on abct TV and we'll be back here by the

fir side next Friday at 8:00 p.m. on ABC

News as well both programs are up on ABC

I YouTube and Facebook and if that's

still not enough there's always the

planet extra podcast pep in all the

usual pod places

bye-bye