G7: Politically weakened leaders meet for summit in Italy

Summary

このスクリプトは、国際的な不安定さと国内の動揺の中でG7サミットの開催を背景に、各国首脳の状況と議論点を紹介しています。ウクライナの支援、国防費の増やし方、国内の選挙状況などが議論されています。特に、国防費の2.5％のGDPへの引き上げや、保守党と労働党の対比、そして新たな改革党の台頭が選挙戦に影響を与える可能性について触れられています。

Takeaways

• 🌏 自由世界のリーダー、G7サミットの開催により国際的な不安定性と国内の動揺が重なる中、誕生日を迎える。
• 🎤 世界で最も居心地の悪い歌手として、国際的な緊張感と国内の混乱を象徴している。
• 🇺🇦 ウクライナの議長と教皇がG7サミットの星ゲストとして集まり、ウクライナに対する祈りと支援を表明。
• 🏠 ロシアは、ウクライナ軍をドネツク人民共和国からの完全撤退を要求し、領土の放棄とNATO加盟の見送りを条件に停戦を提案。
• 💰 G7は凍結されたロシアの資産を解凍し、ウクライナに約400億ポンドを提供することでロシアの要求に対抗。
• 🇫🇷 フランス大統領は右派への大打撃を受けた後、急遽選挙を呼びかけた。
• 🇺🇸 米国大統領バイデンは選挙直前で支持率が後退しており、G7での決断が彼の政権維持に影響を及ぼす可能性がある。
• 🇬🇧 英国の首相はG7で防衛費をGDPの2.5％に引き上げるという急速な誓約を行い、選挙後のNATOサミットに参加する。
• 🕊️ 英国は、欧州での持続的な同盟関係に大きな問いが投げかけられている状況下で、平和維持の役割を果たすために防衛費を増やす必要がある。
• 🏆 労働党はウクライナに対する支持を表明し、国境の守りとNATOへの加盟を支持する。
• 📊 選挙戦では、改革党が急成長しており、保守党との支持率が接近している。

Q & A

G7サミットの重要なテーマは何ですか？

G7サミットの重要なテーマは、国際的な不安定さ、国内の混乱、ウクライナの状況、そして国防費の増加です。

ウクライナの現状とG7サミットでの対応はどのようなものですか？

ウクライナは国際的な支援を必要としており、G7サミットでは、軍事支援と訓練援助を10年間提供することを約束し、ロシアの凍結資産を解凍してウクライナに約400億ポンドを提供することを同意しました。

ロシアが提出した停戦の条件は何ですか？

ロシアは、ウクライナ軍をドネツク州の人民共和国から完全撤退させ、ウクライナの領土を放棄し、NATOへの加盟を断念するよう要求しています。

フランスの大統領が急遽選挙を呼びかけた理由は何ですか？

フランスの大統領は、極右派に対する大きな敗北の後、急遽選挙を呼びかけました。

バイデン大統領は選挙の数日前にどのような問題に直面していますか？

バイデン大統領は、選挙の数日前に支持率が下がっており、国内の選挙に直面しています。

イギリスの国防費の目標はどのくらいですか？

イギリスは、GDPの2.5％に国防費を増やすという目標を2030年までに設定しています。

労働党と保守党の国防に関する見解の違いは何ですか？

労働党はウクライナに対する支持を強調しており、国防費の2.5％の目標を目指していますが、保守党は国防費の具体的な目標を設定していないと指摘されています。

プーチン大統領はG7サミットをどのように評価していますか？

プーチン大統領は、選挙や国内の弱い状況に直面するG7の指導者たちを見て、彼らの動きを利用してロシアの利益を推進しようとしています。

イギリスの選挙での改革党の立ち位置はどのようなものですか？

改革党は選挙で支持を獲得しており、保守党の支持を分割して影響力を増やしている可能性があります。

選挙戦術に関するアリスト・キャンベルとクレイグ・オリバーの意見はどのように異なりますか？

アリスト・キャンベルは労働党が選挙に没頭していると感じていますが、クレイグ・オリバーは保守党が早期選挙を行ったことが大きな失敗だったと指摘しています。

Outlines

00:00

😔 国際情勢と国内の動揺

第1段落では、世界中で起こる国際的な不安定さと国内の混乱が重なり合う中で、G7サミットが開催された。この際、ドイツの恥ずかしい出来事にもかかわらず、ウクライナの大統領と教皇が重要なゲストとして招かれた。彼らはG7サミットのサイドラインで会談し、その影響は1500マイル離れた場所で反響を呼び起こした。ロシアは、ウクライナ軍の撤退と東部領土の放棄、NATOへの加盟の見送りを要求した一方で、アメリカは軍事支援を保証し、G7はロシアの凍結資産を解凍してウクライナに資金援助を提供することを決定した。しかし、これらの決断は、国内外で弱まっているリーダーたちの状況を表している。フランスの大統領は右派に大打撃を受けた後に急遽選挙を呼びかけ、バイデン大統領は選挙直前に支持率が下がっている。英国の首相も国内での課題に直面しており、世界は数十年ぶりの危険な状況にあるとされている。

05:00

😠 英国の防衛費増と選挙戦の動向

第2段落では、英国が国防費をGDPの2.5%に引き上げることを2023年までに誓約し、選挙戦で国防費の増が議論された。保守党は国家サービス計画を発表し、労働党はウクライナを支持すると表明した。両党は選挙戦で特に外国政策について話していないが、ウクライナの情況はヨーロッパの安全保障に影響を与えており、英国は通常の国防を検討し始めている。選挙戦の結果、改革党が急成長しており、保守党の支持を割り当てている可能性がある。選挙戦の分析では、保守党のキャンペーンは早期選挙の大きな失敗だったとされ、メディアはトーリーズの混乱を伝えることに比べて、労働党の政権運営について深く掘り下げることができないとされている。

10:01

😕 選挙戦の現状と各党の戦略

第3段落では、選挙戦の現状が分析されており、保守党のキャンペーンは災害とされ、労働党は自信を持ち、自信を高めている。ニジェル・ファージはポピュリズムを推進しており、保守党をいじめている。改革党の支持は増加しており、選挙戦の結果に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。選挙戦の分析では、労働党は安全な立場から選挙戦に挑んでいるが、保守党は防衛的なキャンペーンを展開している。選挙戦の後半では、選挙制度の不公平さが議論される可能性があるとされている。

15:02

😞 選挙戦の退屈さと各党の課題

第4段落では、選挙戦は退屈とされており、労働党は政府での活動についての明確なビジョンを示していない。保守党は過去の失敗から回復しようと努力しているが、その難しさが指摘されている。労働党は選挙戦の後半で政府での活動についてより具体的に話すことが勧められている。選挙戦の分析では、選挙戦の退屈さが選挙戦の結果に影響を与える可能性があるとされており、各党は選挙戦の最後の数週間で自分たちの政策をより具体的に示すことが求められている。

Keywords

💡G7サミット

G7サミットは、世界7か国首脳会議の略で、主要な先進国が経済や政治の課題について協議する重要な国際会議です。ビデオでは、G7サミットが国際的な不安定性や国内の動揺を背景に開催され、その影響力と各国首脳の対応が議論されています。

💡ウクライナ

ウクライナは、ビデオの重要なテーマの一つであり、その国内の情勢や国際社会からの支援が焦点にされています。特に、G7サミットでの議論や、アメリカやG7がウクライナへの軍事支援を決定したことが触れられています。

💡国際安保

国際安保は、世界中の危険性や不安定な状況に対する国々の対応を指し、ビデオでは、G7サミットの背景に国際安保の重要性が強調されています。ウクライナ情勢や中東の危機がその例として挙げられています。

💡選挙

ビデオでは、フランスやアメリカ、イギリスなどの国の選挙状況が触れられ、それらの選挙が国内政治や国際関係に与える影響について議論されています。特に、選挙後に政治的不確実性が残る点に注目されています。

💡国防費

国防費は、ビデオ内でイギリスの国防支出に関する議論の核心であり、GDPの2.5％に引き上げるというイギリスの約束が強調されています。これは、冷戦後の平和ボーナスが終焉を迎える中で、国防の重要性が高まっていることを示しています。

💡NATO

NATO（北大西洋条約機構）は、ビデオ内で国際的な安全保障体制を維持するための重要な組織として提唱され、イギリスの選挙後、新しい首相がNATOサミットに参加する予定であることが言及されています。

💡改革党

改革党は、ビデオ内でイギリスの選挙状況と関連して触れられ、選挙での支持率の上昇がその影響力を示唆しています。特に、保守党との票の分断が議論されています。

💡ポピュリズム

ポピュリズムは、ビデオ内でニジェル・ファージを通じて触れられ、彼の政治姿勢や選挙での影響力がその危険性として強調されています。ポピュリズムは、政治的安定性に影響を与える要因とされています。

💡選挙制度

選挙制度は、ビデオ内でイギリスの選挙結果とその公正性に関する議論の中心に位置しており、選挙結果と政党の議席獲得数が一致しない場合のデモクラシーの矛盾が指摘されています。

💡政策

政策は、ビデオ内で労働党や保守党の選挙運動と関連して議論されており、特に労働党の政策の不透明さが批判的視点として取り上げられています。政策の明確化が、選挙後の政治的安定に向けた重要なステップであることが示唆されています。

Highlights

Good morning everyone; the leader of the Free World addresses the challenges of international insecurity and domestic upheaval.

The German Chancellor and Ukrainian President attend the G7 Summit, emphasizing the importance of global cooperation.

Pope's presence at the G7 Summit highlights the moral and ethical considerations in international politics.

Ukrainian President thanks for prayers and support, indicating the ongoing conflict's impact on international relations.

Russian demands for a ceasefire include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops and surrender of territory, complicating peace negotiations.

US pledges military and training aid for Ukraine for the next decade, showing a long-term commitment to the conflict.

G7 agrees to unlock frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, reflecting economic measures against Russia.

Leaders face domestic challenges, such as elections and political shifts, affecting their international stances.

The UK pledges to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, indicating a strategic shift in national priorities.

The ongoing conflict in Europe and the Middle East raises questions about the future of international alliances.

Both main UK parties express support for Ukraine, but differ on the specifics of defense spending commitments.

The potential end of the post-Cold War peace dividend prompts discussions on defense funding among European countries.

Voters feel insecure due to global events, influencing domestic political campaigns to focus on defense.

The Reform Party's rise in polls could impact the conservative vote, indicating a shift in political dynamics.

Experts discuss the potential implications of the election on foreign policy, particularly regarding Europe and defense.

The debate on electoral reform may emerge if there's a significant disparity between votes and parliamentary seats.

The transcript highlights the complexity of navigating domestic politics amidst global challenges.

Transcripts

the leader of the Free World good

morning everyone birthday yes leading

the world's most awkward of singer

alongs through four Smiles the weight of

international insecurity and domestic

upheaval bearing down on almost all

happy birth to

youy birthday

dear it may have been the German

chancell being serated but the Ukrainian

president and Pope are the star guests

at this Gathering thank you for your

prayers for Ukraine

ukrainians they met on the sidelines of

this week's G7 Summit their galvanizing

impact though Drew reaction one and a

half thousand miles

away the conditions are very simple

Ukrainian troops must be completely

withdrawn from the donets lank's people

Republic hon zapar

region surrender of Ukrainian territory

he not even fully control regime

changing keev and dropping their bid to

join NATO Russia's demands for a

ceasefire announced this

afternoon retaliation to deals done

overnight the US guaranteeing military

and training aid for a decade to come

and the G7 agreeing to unlock Frozen

Russian assets to raise almost 40

billion pounds to hand to Ukraine but

these bold moves bely the precarious

grounds many of these weakened leaders

tread the president of France called a

snap election after heavy losses to the

far right President Biden now trailing

in the polls just ahead of a US election

extra guest India's Narendra Modi

reelected with a weakened majority and

the UK's own prime minister and the

states could hardly be high the world

today is more dangerous than it's been

for decades that's why the UK has made

up hard and fast pledge to increase

defense spending to 2 and a half% of GDP

by 2030 whoever wins this general

election will fly to Washington for a

NATO Summit just days after the result

and immediately face the enormity of the

task in hand yeah we do have

both an ongoing conflict in Europe

unfolding crisis in the Middle East we

have a world where some of the UK's most

enduring alliances have big question

marks around them you know we don't know

what's going to happen in the US

election we're at a bit of a turning

point you know we have an expensive

welfare state we have an aging

population so a lot of calls on the

public purse at home but

also we're kind of potentially looking

at the end of of the sort of post Cold

War peace dividend lots of European

countries are having to think now about

how are we going to fund defense what

kind of defense do we need in the world

so that's that's real equally there's a

sense that the parties have picked up on

this idea that voters feel insecure

Richie sunk has put defense front and

center of the conservatives campaign St

ing it by announcing a national service

scheme and repeating time and again the

world will be a less safe place with

labor in power will Ukraine get the same

support under a labor government the

entire labor party is united in support

of Ukraine will give Ukraine the support

it requires until the ukrainians win I

think the whole UK is united in this it

is an essential Mission and it's

fundamentally about the National

Security of all of Europe and is that an

unwavering commitment regardless of the

cost there's no spending cap on this we

will be supporting Ukraine until Ukraine

wins a lot of people would look at say

that's that's fair enough and that's big

rhetoric but ultimately in your

Manifesto you haven't committed solidly

to raising defense spending to 2.5 of

GDP it's an aspiration but it's not a

commitment we have made a very strong

argument that the economy has to be

stronger before there's a whole range of

longer term improvements in public

services that we can deliver the Prime

Minister marched into the G7 trailing

labor in the polls he will return

trading the Reform Party in one pole and

having made commitments he may well not

be in office for to deliver well joining

me now is bronwin Maddox the director of

the foreign policy Think Tank chattam

house When Vladimir Putin looks at this

Gathering of leaders weakened facing

elections resurgent right Wings about to

be turfed out is he laughing

yes and he's picking his moment to

undermine not just the G7 but the big

Summit on uh trying to help Ukraine that

starts tomorrow in Switzerland uh about

90 countries Gathering to see what can

be done about that so it is entirely

positional this uh supposed offer that

he's made he wants to put himself uh

apparently even if there's only the the

the the meest uh claim to that being

well-founded that he wants to put

himself on the moral High ground and say

to the world I am offering the peace

deal and uh get it and undermine all the

things the G7 is doing to get at him I

mean there's some future proofing being

attempted isn't there with the Biden um

you know deal being signed uh yet Putin

knows that if Trump were to win in

November Everything Changes he has High

Hopes I think that if Trump were to win

that some of the things that Trump has

said about doing a deal immediately

would be to his Advantage though Trump

is uh by his very nature unpredictable

and even Vladimir Putin couldn't

couldn't count on that but he is trying

to to Rattle the G7 and to make them

think I would suspect particularly

France and Germany make them think look

is there an alternative way are we at

some point going to be talking about a

deal but also as as you as you said they

have been doing some things to toughen

up on Russia even in the past couple of

days raising this loan against Frozen

Russian assets to give money to Ukraine

tightening up on Russian sanctions so

the G7 even if weakened as your

colleagues were saying uh the individual

leaders uh it is not without bite um

foreign policy hasn't really featured in

this election campaign back home yet

very much um there's just been this

argument about defense spending um where

does that leave us in terms of the next

government and the direction it might

pursue there's only one word that really

differentiates the two parties on paper

in in a significant way and that is

Rwanda uh you can argue about whether or

not that is foreign policy or domestic

policy because it's about migration but

there they are starkly different

and you have a bit of a a difference of

tone on Europe where labor wants to get

as close to Europe without mentioning

the word brexit or Customs Union or

anything like that as Europe might might

um allow um but then you don't have very

much difference at all and that is part

of the reason that I think it hasn't

featured very uh prominently in all this

and the other reason is that they really

neither of them want to talk about

Europe that has been so toxic in any

kind of electoral context so they've got

no reason to on the other hand there is

an awful lot of foreign policy around

Ukraine affects the security um of

Europe it is the the main thing pushing

up those defense numbers saying Britain

and other countries need to think very

hard about their very ordinary defense

how to make more ammunition and

artillery and that kind of thing and

it's um you know it is it is

destabilizing for fuel prices and all

kinds of things but but there could be

really big things happening over the

next year or so on all sorts of fronts

whether it's Ukraine or China Taiwan or

the Middle East um do we have a strong

sense of what you know a possible prime

minister stama would be doing on all of

these fronts he's taken a very um

deliberate if you like front foot

approach to all this and and labor has

not always liked that talking very much

about defense or about wars or indeed

about the United States or things um

preferring to talk about development Aid

and how Britain can work with other

countries abroad but he has been quite

trenchant K starm and saying look we're

completely behind Ukraine uh we're

behind defense uh we're behind Britain

taking a very assertive role in the

world um so that's all we have to go on

so not a lot of change not a lot of

change except possibly on Gaza and there

we have to see because of the strains

that has caused in his party problem M

thank you very much now in the election

one new opinion poll shows the Reform

Party overtaking the conservatives

leading Nigel farage to claim today he

is the real leader of the opposition the

ugu poll for the Times put labor way out

in front with 37% of the vote but it

also shows support for reform Rising 2

point to 19% while the conservatives

were unchanged on 18 numbers it says are

within the margin of error and the LI

dens aren't far behind on 14 but other

polls show the Tor is still ahead of

Reform this from the pollster Electoral

calculus is based on opinion polls

carried out over the last week it puts

reform on 14.8 % behind the

conservatives on

21.9 and is similar to most other pole

aggregators but turn that into the

number of seats it predicts and other

predictions are out there each party

will win and you see labor with a

massive majority the conservatives with

just 80 the lib Dems not far behind with

63 reform wins just one seat on that

projection fewer than the

greens well earlier I spoke to to former

government directors of communication

alist Campbell and Craig Oliver for

labor and the conservatives respectively

as well as Professor Rosie Campbell of

King's College London and I started by

asking Craig Oliver what he thought of

the conservative campaign so far I think

three things are probably clear the

first is it clearly was a massive

mistake to hold an early election for

the conservative party it's a serious

problem for them the second thing is I

think the media is finding it much

easier to cover the Tories in meltdown

story than they are what on Earth is

labor going to do in power and I think

the other more interesting story which I

think we'll probably get to towards the

end of the campaign is exactly what is

labor going to do in power is it

painting itself into a corner by ruling

out a whole load of things during the

campaign so that they're not awkward now

but in the future maybe real chickens

that come home to roost aliser how do

you think it's gone this week I think

it's been pretty catastrophic for the

conservatives I I feel that the D-Day

Fiasco was kind of defining I just think

it was one of those moments where people

thought this guy just can't do the job

um and I think his his confidence has

looked very very low whereas I think K

st's confidence has risen I also think

that neither of the main parties can

really work out how to deal with Nigel

farage farage to my mind still gets

treated more like a kind of you know

cheeky chappy comedian than he does as a

very dangerous populist politician but

he's riding that he's really tweaking

the Tory's Tale the whole time Rosie how

seismic do you think the reform position

is this week well it's not seismic if we

look at Raw numbers I think you know we

see an incremental increase but I think

in terms of the potential impact on the

conservative vote it could be seismic in

that it's splitting the vote um in

constituencies that perhaps we wouldn't

have thought of as being marginal in the

past are going to be marginal and if if

um reform do as well as they are in the

polls right now the conservatives will

lose many more cons constituencies than

they were expecting to and so what

effect do you think is is it going to be

you know the end result is even fewer

conservative MPS and a very composition

yes I think possibly with farage in

Parliament as well but who knows but

that that's the most likely outcome

indeed Craig I mean doesn't that raise

even stronger the possibility of farage

leading the rights yeah no look and he's

definitely out there trying to suggest

that that could be the case I mean my

personal view is a conservative party

would be absolutely insane to allow him

in and there are certain people in the

conservative party who definitely think

it's the solution personally I think it

would be the end of the conservative

party certainly for a long period of

time look obviously what is clear now is

that they are running a defensive

campaign and they are trying to minimize

the number of seats Ley get that is a

very difficult position to be in

especially with three weeks to go alist

is there a danger that every if

everybody thinks Labor's going to win

anyway you get a much stronger protest

vote and you could get a surprising

result I think I think it is a problem

for labor labor have got to fight this

election every day like they think they

can lose it even though everybody's

saying that it's all over I think one

the other thing is that I think will

start to come into closer into view is

the whole issue of the electoral system

that debate is going to get very

complicated if Labour were to get a

massive majority on a you know sub 40%

kind of vote if reform were to get

several million votes but maybe no MPS

if the liberal Democrats which is

entirely possible were to get 4050 seats

on exactly the same share of the vot as

they had last time that debate I think

is one that maybe is going to start to

emerge in the second half of the

campaign yeah I mean Rosie there's going

to be an increasing unfairness argument

isn't there when we look at this result

yeah although it is it is I mean I can

see I absolutely can see Alisa's point

but on the other hand there are many

places that have been safe seats for

many many years when nobody's ever

knocked on their door who suddenly

people are noticing them so actually

there will be a lot of people in the

electorate who suddenly feel that this

election is relevant to them in the way

it hasn't been in previous years but but

the we we could be in a situation come

Friday the 5th where Kia starma has got

less votes than Jeremy Corbin got um at

the last election but has a landslide

majority I mean it's just going to make

our democracy look mad isn't it yes but

then what's the mechanism for fixing

that because I think a party with a

massive majority is very unlikely to

take on electoral reform well I mean

aliser isn't labor leaving a vacuum for

reform to fill you know we had their

Manifesto and there's nothing to talk

about because there's nothing new in it

so it hasn't spark to debate and that's

left the way clear for Nigel farage to

fill the Gap no I don't agree with that

I I I think that you're they made a

virtue of having essentially put out the

main elements of their policy proposals

in advance the yesterday was all about

saying you say there's no policy you say

there's no plan here's a lot of policy

and it represents a plan I do think

there's a real problem with neither of

the main parties kind of wanting to

engage with Nigel farage and his his

populist Poli

on its own terms which means that farage

is allowed to carry on playing this game

of almost being like a sort of the

Johnson figure of modern poliy so would

you go out and attack him now if you

were running the labor campaign I would

I I would certainly be going after the

damage that populism has done to this

country and I think that farage

represents a very dangerous force in our

politics and and we you know we should

Pander to it in our Peril Craig look I

don't disagree with any of that but look

I keep thinking about a word cloud that

I saw from one of the pollsters this

week which is basically words describing

the election and the dominating word by

a factor of 10 was boring that is

because the labor party despite what

Alistair is saying is not really giving

us a clear picture of what it's going to

do in government and I think that

actually that is something that they

could do they can afford to say look we

can do this and I think we've got to a

stage where people are so worried about

losing the election that let's face

facts they've already won well they

might they might say well look look what

Happ Theresa May you know she tried to

come out with some big Ideas totally

messed up so I totally understand that

point but you don't have to go around

ruling everything out so every time the

conservatives pop up and say you're

going to do vat or what about the triple

lock on pensions you don't have to say

we're ruling out the vat thing or we're

we're going to keep the triple lock

competions for the next five years these

things seem to me to be very very

strange things to commit to um given

that they know that they're going to go

in it could be very difficult aliser if

you were advising rushy sunak and trying

to pull his campaign back on the rails

what would you saying I guess the only

thing he's got left now is to show

there's a bit of fight in him um but you

know the truth is I think he's he's

fallen victim to coming on the end of

two of the worst prime ministers in the

country's history Johnson trust did

massive damage to the conservative party

he hasn't differentiated them himself

from them enough uh he's pandered to the

right of his party rather than

challenging it and I'm afraid he's

reaping what he s so I guess if I was

being a genuine friend to him i' just

say look try and enjoy it and get out

the other end Al

alive Craig if you were advising kir

starma well look I think it's really

difficult when they're clearly it's

working for them right you know like the

Temptation is to say to the lab party

just keep going keep being boring keep

batting it off I actually genuinely do

think that they should show more leg I

think they should go out there and talk

a lot more about what they are actually

going to do in government and some real

pressing problems that are going to be

on their agenda very very soon and I

think that they will find in the five or

even 10 years that they're in power that

having done that would have been a

massive benefit to them they can afford

to do it go out there use the final

three weeks of this campaign to start

putting some flesh on the bone Rosie

Craig and alist thank you all very much

indeed thank you