Will covid kill globalisation?
Summary
TLDRПандемия COVID-19 нанесла серьезный удар по глобализации, ускорив процесс деглобализации. До пандемии глобализация уже столкнулась с трудностями, такими как финансовый кризис 2008 года и торговая война между США и Китаем. Нарушения в цепочках поставок, вызванные пандемией, особенно сильно ударили по текстильной промышленности. В будущем ожидается более регионализированный и локализованный мир. Некоторые компании, такие как Zara, уже адаптировались к новым условиям, сокращая свои цепочки поставок. Тем не менее, глобализация не исчезнет полностью, а цифровые компании, такие как Netflix и Amazon, продолжат процветать.
Takeaways
- 🌐 Пандемия COVID-19 привела к ускорению отхода от глобализации, которая уже наблюдалась до пандемии.
- 💔 Пандемия вызвала человеческие страдания и повреждение политической и социальной структуры.
- 👖 Швейная промышленность, с высокой затратной ручной работой, была одним из первых, кто пострадал от нарушения цепочки поставок.
- 🌍 Глобализация привела к расширению международной торговли, но также увеличила уязвимость перед глобальными кризисами.
- 📉 В результате пандемии продажи одежды в Америке упали на 73,5%, а Бангладеш потерял огромные суммы из-за отмены экспортных заказов.
- 🛑 Глобальный финансовый кризис 2008 года и торговая война между США и Китаем были серьезными ударами по глобализации до COVID-19.
- 🔄 В последние годы стали распространяться националистические политики и протекционизм, что снижало уровень свободной торговли.
- 🏭 Многонациональные компании стали обсуждать уязвимость своих цепочек поставок и стратегии для минимизации рисков.
- 🛍️ Пандемия ускорила тренд к онлайн-шопингу и прямому быстрому доставке, что может изменить модель бизнеса многих компаний.
- 🚫 Китай и США продолжают разделяться в сфере технологий, что может привести к формированию двух отдельных миров.
- 📉 Несмотря на то, что глобализация может снижаться, некоторые крупные победицы, такие как Netflix, Google и Facebook, продолжат расти.
Q & A
Какой влияние оказало пандемия COVID-19 на глобализации?
-Пандемия COVID-19 привела к ускорению отхода от глобализации, вызывая разрыв в глобализованной торговой системе и сложности в供应链.
Что такое 'теневая сторона глобализации', о которой говорится в скрипте?
-Теневая сторона глобализации относится к негативным последствиям глобализации, таким как человеческая страдания и ущерб политической и социальной тканевой структуре.
Какую роль играет промышленность текстильной одежды в глобализованной экономике?
-Промышленность текстильной одежды является одной из самых мобильных в плане供应链, что делает ее особенно уязвимой к разрывам и сбоям в глобализованной торговле.
Каковы были экономические потери для Бангладеш из-за отмены экспортных заказов?
-Бангладеш потерял примерно 3,2 миллиарда долларов из-за отмены экспортных заказов за шесть месяцев.
Какие факторы сделали глобализации более ослабленной до пандемии?
-Глобализация уже ослабла из-за кризиса 2008 года и торговой войны между США и Китаем, что привело к увеличению протекционизма и снижению свободной торговли.
Что означает термин 'гиперглобализация'?
-Гиперглобализация - это период, когда мир стал более взаимосвязанным, чем когда-либо прежде, с расширением глобальной торговли и ростом многонациональных компаний.
Какие последствия ожидаются для глобализации после пандемии?
-После пандемии ожидается более раздробленный и региональный мир с меньшим уровнем глобализации, устойчивостью и более местными моделями производства.
Какой пример компании демонстрирует успешную модель коротких供应链?
-Компания Zara использует короткие供应链 для своей продукции, что позволяет быстро реагировать на тенденции потребителей и минимизировать накопление инвентаря.
Какие вызовы предстоит решать компаниям в условиях ухода от глобализации?
-Компании должны обсуждать риски供应链, обеспечивать защиту от непредвиденных разрывов и строить более устойчивые и местные производственные цепочки.
Какие изменения ожидаются в области международной торговли и инвестиций?
-Ожидается увеличение регионализации, национализации и локализации, а также возможный рост протекционизма и снижение уровня свободной международной торговли.
Каковы могут быть последствия деглобализации для развивающихся стран?
-Деглобализация может привести к тому, что некоторые развивающиеся страны, такие как Индия, могут упустить возможность подняться к статусу среднедоходных стран и участвовать в глобальной экономической выработке.
Outlines
🌐 Глобализация и пандемия COVID-19
Параграф 1 описывает, как пандемия COVID-19 усугубила существующие проблемы глобализации. До пандемии глобализация уже находилась в отступлении, но ныне процесс ускорился. Рассматривается влияние на глобальные цепочки поставок, особенно в текстильной промышленности, которая была одним из первых, кто пострадал. Приводятся примеры отставания производства одежды из-за закрытий китайских заводов-изготовителей кнопок и застежек, что приводит к отмене заказов на хлопок в Индии и падению спроса на западе. Статистика показывает, что продажи одежды в Соединенных Штатах упали на 73,5%, а Бангладеш потерял около 3,2 миллиардов долларов за шесть месяцев из-за отмены экспортных заказов.
📉 Экономические кризисы и протекционизм
Параграф 2 освещает последствия экономических кризисов и протекционизма для глобализации. В 2008 году кризис в банковской системе привел к сокращению международных инвестиций и торговли, что замедлило процесс глобализации. В последующем возросло недовольство населения, потерявшего от глобализации, что привело к росту протекционистских настроений и появлению популизма. Важным событием стало начало торговой войны между США и Китаем, которая усугубила проблемы глобализации. Рассматриваются последствия этих событий для мировой экономики и торговли.
🌐 Проблемы глобализации и будущее
Параграф 3 анализирует проблемы глобализации, вызванные пандемией, и предсказывает её будущее. Авторы подчёркивают, что мир, потерявший в глобализацию, станет более региональным и разрозненным. Прогнозируется рост числа компаний, стремящихся к более локальным供应链,чтобы избежать уязвимости глобальных цепочек поставок. Рассматриваются примеры успешных компаний, таких как Zara, которые смогли адаптироваться к новым условиям благодаря более коротким供应链. Также обсуждается влияние деглобализации на развивающиеся страны, такие как Индию, которые могут потерять возможность подняться к среднему уровню дохода. Авторы заключают, что хотя деглобализация может принести некоторые проблемы, но также может помочь обществу стать более устойчивым.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Глобализация
💡Цепочки поставок
💡Деглобализация
💡COVID-19
💡Пандемия
💡Производство одежды
💡Торговые войны
💡Цифровая экономика
💡Национализм
💡Регионализация
Highlights
Covid-19 has accelerated the retreat of globalization, leading to a diminished world in many ways.
Globalized trading systems rely heavily on long and complex supply chains, which have been disrupted by the pandemic.
The garment industry, worth 2.5 trillion dollars globally, has been particularly hard hit due to its reliance on human labor and supply chain vulnerabilities.
Bangladesh's garment industry faced significant losses due to canceled orders and disrupted supply chains.
Globalization's roots trace back to post-WWII international commerce and finance systems designed for economic peace and cooperation.
The 1990s marked an era of hyper globalization with China's entry into the World Trade Organization and the dominance of multinational companies.
Globalization enabled a billion people in developing countries to escape poverty, while Western consumers enjoyed cheaper goods and travel.
The 2008 financial crisis was an early sign of slowing globalization, leading to a rise in opposition and nationalist policies.
Trade wars between the U.S. and China have further disrupted globalization, with tariffs increasing significantly on both sides.
The post-Covid world is expected to be more regionalized and fractious, with a shift towards localization and nationalization.
Multinationals are now focusing on less global and more local approaches to mitigate supply chain risks.
Zara's shorter supply chains have allowed the company to be more resilient during the pandemic, illustrating a potential future business model.
The decoupling of Chinese and American tech, including hardware and software, is leading to a splintered global tech landscape.
Deglobalization could negatively impact developing countries, potentially leaving them behind in the post-industrial economy.
Economic nationalism may not be a solution to deglobalization, as bringing back factories doesn't guarantee the return of jobs.
Despite deglobalization, digital giants like Netflix, Google, and Facebook are expected to continue growing, benefiting from increased online activity.
The pandemic may lead to a more resilient society that learns to make interdependence work with resilience, rather than resorting to simplistic solutions.
Transcripts
covert 19 has brought disruption to the
globalized and interconnected world
the challenges of kovid have led to a
dark period
both in terms of human suffering but
also the damage done to of political and
social fabric
but before the pandemic globalization
was already in retreat
now that trend looks set to accelerate
this is a diminished world in many ways
that we're looking at
it's a world of globalization
[Music]
from smartphones to toys today's
globalized trading system has grown to
rely on long and complex supply chains
but the pandemic has played havoc with
them
clothing is one industry that has been
hit hard
worth 2.5 trillion dollars globally it
employs over 43 million people
in asia alone one of the most footloose
industries when it comes to supply chain
has always been the garment industry
that's because it has a high level of
human involvement
and so the labor cost of a product is
much higher than you might find in an
automobile for example
for that reason we've always seen
companies chase the lowest cost
[Music]
that means manufacturing mostly happens
in asia
and the global nature of the industry
makes it especially vulnerable to
disruptions
take a typical pair of trousers sold on
a high street in western europe
the label says made in bangladesh but
many of the parts come from other
countries
chinese factories making buttons and
zips shut during the pandemic
meaning the items didn't reach their
next port
factories in bangladesh couldn't finish
the trousers
and canceled orders to cotton suppliers
in india
and lockdown hit demand in the west as
customers weren't shopping on high
streets
in america clothing sales fell by 73.5
percent
between march and april this year
bangladesh lost out on an estimated 3.2
billion dollars from cancelled exports
in just six months
and across asia millions of low-income
workers were laid off
goods taking long journeys from factory
to the high street have become one of
the signatures of globalization
[Music]
the roots of today's heavily globalized
world were put down at the end of the
second world war
the allied nations created a rules-based
system for international commerce and
finance
designed to establish the economic
foundations of peace
on the bedrock of genuine international
cooperation
this allowed companies products science
and technology
to move across borders
then in the 1990s the world entered an
era of hyper globalization
becoming more interconnected than ever
before
a dream of money money
in this era the big new player on the
scene was china
which joined the world trade
organization
it grew to dominate global trade
alongside the united states
multinational companies thrived
expanding into china
and all over the globe
from 1990 to 2008 the total trade in
goods and services increased
from 39 to 61 of world gdp
this great globalization boom enabled a
billion people in developing countries
to lift themselves out of poverty
and in the west consumers enjoyed
cheaper and more accessible travel and
goods
[Music]
covert 19 struck a major blow to
unfettered globalization
but before the pandemic arrived
globalization had already taken two
other big hits the american financial
system
is rocked to its foundation japanese
stocks down nine percent the hong kong
market's down
everywhere you look the color is red and
no one it seems
can stop the bleeding the first was the
2008 financial crisis
when cross-border investment trade bank
loans and supply chains
shrank globalization started to slow
down
a process known as globalization
the global financial crisis decade ago
was perhaps an
early sign of the beginnings of
globalization
it wasn't recognized as such at the time
because it seemed to be a banking crisis
the global economy suffered
[Music]
and those who had already lost out
during the heyday of globalization
felt even poorer opposition to the
system grew
and we see this kind of sentiment across
western democracies
to bring the jobs back that were stolen
when the factories moved particularly to
china
those who were left behind very cruelly
by the policies and people that
supported globalization
that is the blue-collar workers for
example in factories
in northern england or in the midwest of
america the trump voters
this desire to revive manufacturing and
bring back dignity to workers spread
across the western world
a wave of populist leaders were elected
across the globe
championing nationalist policies
attacking immigration
and the existing global economy
[Music]
[Music]
the future does not belong to globalists
the future belongs to patriots
[Music]
free trade went out of fashion and
protectionism was all the rage
the number of trade interventions such
as tariffs and subsidies
introduced by countries has been
increasing year on year
and while some have brought
liberalization most have been harmful to
world trade
in this climate globalization suffered a
second assault
[Music]
we can't continue to allow china
to rape our country and that's what
they're doing
a trade war blew up between the world's
two largest economies
for years the west had accused china of
flouting wto rules
saying its trading practices were unfair
to western companies
but president trump turned rhetoric into
policy
since the start of his presidency
tariffs on chinese exports to the u.s
have increased
six-fold china hit back more than
doubling its tariffs on u.s goods
the advent of the pandemic this year was
the third big disruption to
globalization
within the last 12 years globalization
has sped up
[Music]
this year the imf forecasts that global
gdp could fall by 4.9 percent
that is 50 times more than in 2009
the post-covert world is likely to be a
more fractious and regionalized one
what we saw for 20-30 years with
unfettered global trade with unfettered
global travel
with sourcing from china serving the
world i think we'll never go back to
that
what we're likely to see is a messier
world and future
one with elements of globalization
continuing
but many other counter trends that lead
to either regionalization
nationalization localization some form
of
de-globalization and so we're going to a
spiky world
we're going to see much more disruption
[Music]
multinationals try to navigate the
challenges of the pandemic
the talk in the boardroom is
increasingly about how to be less global
and more local they have seen
how vulnerable their supply chains are
to unanticipated disruption of a natural
kind
for the first time at the level of the
ceo and the board
companies are discussing supply chain
risk and what to do about it and how to
ensure against it
now they're seeing this as something
vital to the business
some companies are ahead of the game the
spanish clothing retailer zara
is one of the most successful in the
clothing industry
and its shorter supply chains have
helped the company
weather the coveted storm while most
western high street fashion brands have
offshored manufacturing to asia
where labour is cheaper distance equals
time
so retailers have to bulk order six
months in advance
and in that time a lot can go out of
fashion
zara keeps its manufacturing base closer
to home for its higher fashion lines
meaning you can take a design to the
high street in a matter of weeks
that way it doesn't stockpile inventory
and can respond quickly to consumer
trends
that model is coming to not just to
fashion but industry after industry is
going to move in that direction
in part because the on-demand economy is
allowing
us to express our tastes through social
commerce
we've seen a revolution that's driven
both by fear of disruption on one hand
but also by the opportunities created by
the internet economy
the pandemic has disrupted the movement
of goods people and capital around the
globe
but even without covert 19 another
pillar of globalization would be facing
challenges
the flow of data across borders
the great firewall of china has kept out
the likes of google and facebook for
years
[Music]
and president trump's recent attacks on
tiktok and wechat
are deepening this splinter net between
china and the west
we're looking at tick tock we may be
manning
and it's not just software we confronted
untrustworthy chinese technology and
telecom providers
we convinced many countries many
countries
and i did this myself for the most part
not to use huawei
the decoupling of chinese and american
tech also extends to hardware
i think this is likely to lead to two
worlds a china-dominated world
and an america-dominated world on
technology and software
and ultimately we will have less
innovation
the unpicking of globalization may
accelerate on a number of fronts
irrespective of when covert 19 is
brought under control
and this could be bad news for
developing countries such as india
[Music]
the globalization boom allowed countries
in southeast asia to rise to
middle-income status
but the likes of india may miss out on
this
there is a concern that we may see a
leap frogging in countries that are
emerging
the way that china had a chance to put
its massive population to work in
factories
there is a worry that for developing
countries that are just emerging at that
stage that the world may move to a
post-industrial economy
and leave them behind this is a genuine
concern
and they are not the only people who
stand to lose out from deglobalization
in rich countries like the us and
britain those most in favor of reigning
in globalization could suffer the most
we're going to london to stop the brexit
betrayal good morning
economic nationalism will not prove to
be a silver bullet
it's very likely that uh policies of
de-globalization or economic nationalism
that try to bring the factories back
will discover that you can bring the
factories back
but you can't bring the jobs back that's
because when the factories
are brought back almost always they will
be more highly automated
than they were in china but even as the
world becomes more de-globalized
some of the biggest winners from
globalization will endure
big digital companies like netflix
google and facebook
will keep getting bigger with the
pandemic accelerating the trend towards
shopping online
companies following the amazon model of
fast direct delivery
will also do well the top 10 percent
even in the worst sectors worst meeting
hardest hit sectors
could well emerge with a winning
business model i think in every crisis
you find some companies that fall behind
and those that are fundamentally able to
re-jig their business models
and innovate are the ones that thrive
in the post-covered world some aspects
of globalization affected by the
pandemic
may shift back such as freedom to travel
the world has grown too integrated for a
full unwinding of globalization
covert will not kill it off it will
deepen the cracks
however this may not be all bad news
i'm hopeful that we'll learn the right
lessons that we need to make our
societies more resilient
so that we don't resort to very simple
solutions that don't work
like shut down the supply chain build a
wall
keep the immigrants out we've tried
those things before
i think the broader solution is to make
interdependence
work with resilience that's the
challenge that
global leaders face today
[Music]
i'm vijay vadis warren u.s business
editor of the economist
if you'd like to find out more about the
topic of the pandemic and the global
economy
click on the link opposite thank you for
watching
and don't forget to subscribe
Посмотреть больше похожих видео
Камала Харрис на встрече с избирателями нарисовала мрачную картину
Comparativa KZ ZAX vs KZ ZSX
Как победить волнение при встрече с новыми людьми
Note Toolbar: The Plugin Every Obsidian Mobile User Must Have
(New) what is globalization? 4 drivers of globalization | International Business
Evergrande liquidation: What's behind China's biggest corporate fail ever | DW News
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)