IHSG Turun Dalam, Saatnya Beli atau Tetap Diam | Smart Talk - 14 April 2025

Summary

The transcript covers a wide range of topics including the potential acquisition of Goto by Grab, the impact on competition, and market dynamics. It delves into the performance of companies like Antam, MDKA, and the plantation sector, especially in response to trade wars affecting CPO demand. The discussion also touches on digital banking stocks like BBYB and ARTO, offering insights into market trends. Furthermore, it highlights strategies for monitoring stocks and preparing for upcoming MSCI rebalancing. With a mix of technical analysis, market predictions, and company outlooks, the conversation provides valuable insights for investors.

Takeaways

• 😀 The potential acquisition of Goto by Grab could reduce competition between two major players in the market, improving margins for Goto.
• 😀 Antam's performance is expected to benefit from the rising gold prices, with strong performance exceeding expectations for 2024.
• 😀 MDKA stock is seen as a rebound opportunity after a significant drop, with its valuation now considered low.
• 😀 The plantation sector, particularly palm oil (CPO), is expected to benefit from trade wars as soybean oil prices rise, making CPO relatively cheaper.
• 😀 London Sumatra (LSIP) and TAPG are strong picks within the plantation sector, as they are pure planters benefitting from rising CPO demand and prices.
• 😀 Digital banks like Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB) and Bank Jago (ARTO) are gaining attention due to their positive early financial performance in 2024.
• 😀 BBYB's positive financial results for January and February 2024 could help reverse investor hesitation toward digital banks.
• 😀 Shares of Arto (Bank Jago) are rebounding, with several positive candlestick patterns indicating potential for growth.
• 😀 Key stocks to monitor in the coming weeks include large-cap banks such as BCA, BRI, and BNI, as well as commodity stocks like Antam, MDKA, and plantation stocks like LSIP and TAPG.
• 😀 The coal sector (e.g., PTBA, UNTR) is becoming more attractive as global energy trends, particularly in Europe, may shift back toward coal usage for energy production.

Q & A

What potential impact could the acquisition of GOTO by Grab have on the market?

If Grab acquires GOTO, the competition between the two large players in the market will decrease, potentially improving GOTO’s margins due to reduced rivalry.

Why is Antam expected to perform well in 2024?

Antam is expected to outperform due to the rising price of gold, which is currently at a high level, and the company’s performance surpassing market expectations for 2024.

What are the prospects for MDKA (Medco) in the near future?

MDKA is expected to rebound after experiencing a significant drop in price. The stock is seen as undervalued, and its performance could improve as a result of market corrections.

How is the trade war affecting the palm oil sector?

The trade war has led to an increase in soybean prices, making palm oil (CPO) relatively cheaper. This is expected to drive higher demand for palm oil, benefiting companies in the plantation sector like LSIP and TPG.

What is the outlook for digital banks like BBYB and Bank Jago?

Digital banks like BBYB and Bank Jago are showing early positive signs in 2024. BBYB, in particular, has demonstrated solid financial performance in January and February, making it a stock to watch in the coming months.

Which banks are considered strong investment options in the current market?

Strong investment options in the banking sector include BCA, BRI, BNI, and Bris, with the potential for foreign investors to return and increase market activity in these stocks.

What factors are influencing the current coal market, and which companies are expected to benefit?

The coal market is influenced by shifting energy policies and potential increased coal use. Companies like PTBA and UNTR are seen as potential beneficiaries if coal prices continue to improve.

Why are consumer stocks like AMRT and INDF seen as resilient despite market challenges?

AMRT (Alfamart) and INDF (Indofood) are considered resilient because they are major players in the consumer goods sector, which tends to be more stable even during periods of reduced consumer spending, especially after the holiday season.

How is the stock of Wi (WIFI) expected to perform, and what should investors watch for?

Wi (WIFI) stock shows potential due to recent developments like partnerships and upcoming rights issues. Investors should watch for price movements in the gap range of 1985 to 2120 as indicators of future performance.

What is the importance of trading volume in technical analysis, and how does it affect stock movements?

In technical analysis, higher trading volume alongside price movement signals a strong and confirmed trend. A lack of volume with price changes can indicate uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait or proceed with caution.