Trump Supports Post-Conviction Balance of Power
Summary
TLDRこの動画は、ワシントンD.C.からのニュース番組『バランス・オブ・パワー』の一部です。司会のジョー・マチューとカイリー・ラインツが、ドナルド・トランプ前大統領の裁判や募金活動、イスラエルとハマス間の停戦提案、メキシコの初の女性大統領選出など、多岐にわたる政治・国際問題について議論します。トランプの裁判結果が彼の支持者にどのような影響を与えたか、ハンター・バイデンの裁判がジョー・バイデン大統領に与える影響なども取り上げられます。
Takeaways
- 🔊 トランプ前大統領はニューヨークで有罪判決を受けた後、報復を狙う共和党議員がワシントンに戻ってきたと報道されています。
- 💰 トランプは有罪判決後、選挙運動資金を多く集めており、その内約25%が新たに寄付した捐献者によるものだとされています。
- 📈 資金調達額が急増していることから、トランプの支持層は彼を強く支持していることが伺えます。
- 🎙️ トランプ前大統領はテレビインタビューで、有罪判決を受けても自らの姿勢を変えないと強調しています。
- 🤝 ハンター・バイデンの裁判が行われ、彼は薬物乱用に関する銃購入の罪に問われています。
- 🏛️ 裁判所での証言により、ハンター・バイデンは自分の書籍で薬物への依存を自白しており、その証拠が裁判に用いられているとされています。
- 📉 ハンターの裁判はバイデン大統領の政治的影響力にも影響を与える可能性がありますが、具体的な影響は不透明です。
- 🕊️ イスラエルとハマスの間で停戦協議が進んでいるものの、内閣の意見が分かれる中、ネットヤフ胡はハマスを根絶やしないうちは停戦しないと表明しています。
- 🇲🇽 クローディア・シェインバウムがメキシコ初の女性大統領に選出され、その意義と米メキシコ関係に変わる点が議論されています。
- 📊 政治的報復を巡る共和党の動きも要因となって、今後のアメリカの政治情勢は複雑さを増すと見られています。
Q & A
ドナルド・トランプ前社長がニューヨークで収贏益を上げた背景には何がありますか?
-ドナルド・トランプは有罪判決を受けた後もなお、新しい寄付者を含む多くの資金を調達しています。これは彼の支持層がまだ強いことを示唆しており、有罪判決を受けた後も彼の候補資格を支持している新しい寄付者も出てきています。
トランプ前社長の有罪判決が選挙に与える影響はどの程度ですか?
-有罪判決は選挙に影響を与える可能性がありますが、現在のところ支持層からの支持は変動が見られません。トランプは依然として強い候補者であり、選挙戦は密着するでしょう。
トランプ前社長が実際に刑務所に収監される可能性はどのくらいありますか?
-トランプ前社長が実際に刑務所に収監される可能性は彼の今後の行動によって決まります。彼が責任を認め、有罪判決に従う場合、刑罰は軽減される可能性がありますが、彼が攻撃的な態度を続ける場合、刑罰は厳しくなる可能性があります。
ハマスが停戦提案を受け入れるかどうかはどのように影響を与えますか?
-ハマスが停戦提案を受け入れるかどうかは、ミドル東の情勢に大きな影響を与えます。ハマスが提案を受け入れた場合、一時的な停戦が実現する可能性がありますが、拒否する場合、戦闘は継続する可能性があります。
メキシコ初の女性大統領クaudia shione bomの勝利はどのような意味を持っていますか?
-クaudia shione bomの勝利はメキシコの政治史上初の女性大統領誕生を意味しており、女性参加の進歩を象徴しています。また、彼女は現在の大統領アンドレス・マンウエル・ロペス・オブラドールの政策に賛同しており、政策の継続性を持続する可能性があります。
トランプ前社長の有罪判決が選挙に与える影響を評価するためにはどのような指標を見れば良いですか?
-トランプ前社長の有罪判決が選挙に与える影響を評価するためには、彼の支持率、選挙資金の調達状況、新しい支持者の割合などを見ると良いでしょう。特に、新しい支持者がどの程度出てきているかは重要です。
トランプ前社長が実際に刑務所に収監される場合、それが選挙戦にどのような影響を与える可能性がありますか?
-トランプ前社長が実際に刑務所に収監される場合、それは彼の選挙戦に大きな影響を与える可能性があります。しかし、彼の支持層は依然として強いため、選挙戦は密着するでしょう。
ハマスが停戦提案を受け入れた場合、その影響はどのようなものがありますか?
-ハマスが停戦提案を受け入れた場合、ミドル東の緊張緩和につながり、一時的な平和が訪れる可能性があります。しかし、根本的な問題が解決されない限り、長期的な平和は確保されない可能性があります。
クaudia shione bomがメキシコの政治にどのような影響を与える可能性がありますか?
-クaudia shione bomがメキシコの政治に大きな影響を与える可能性があります。彼女はメキシコ初の女性大統領であり、女性参加の進歩を象徴しています。また、現在の大統領の政策に賛同しており、政策の継続性を持続する可能性があります。
トランプ前社長の有罪判決が選挙戦に与える影響を最小限に抑えるために、彼の陣営はどのような戦略を採用する可能性がありますか?
-トランプ前社長の有罪判決が選挙戦に与える影響を最小限に抑えるために、彼の陣営は彼の支持者へのアピールを強化し、選挙戦の焦点を他の問題に移すことが考えられます。また、彼は依然として強い候補者であり、選挙戦は密着するでしょう。
Outlines
🔥 政治とビジネスの世界からの最新情報
「バランス・オブ・パワー」という番組では、政治からビジネスの世界まで幅広いトピックを取り上げています。ジョー・マチユーとカイリー・ラインズが番組をナビゲートし、ドナルド・トランプ前大統領の資金調達やニューヨークでの共和党議員たちの復帰、イスラエルとハマスの停戦提案、そしてメキシコ初の女性大統領クローディア・シェイン・ボムの選出などが話題となっています。さらに、トランプ前大統領の有罪判決後の影響や、その可能性に対するコメントも取り上げられています。
トランプ氏の裁判とバイデン氏の息子の裁判の裏側
トランプ前大統領の有罪判決に対する彼の行動と裁判官の対応が分析され、また、バイデン大統領の息子ハンター・バイデンが買った銃と麻薬への依存に関する裁判の難しさについても議論されています。ハンター・バイデン自身の書籍からの証拠が裁判に使用されることから、彼の弁護団は技術的な弁護を試みています。
💰 トランプ氏の資金調達と政治的余波
トランプ氏の有罪判決後の資金調達状況が分析され、新しい寄付者と寄付額の増加が確認されています。また、その資金がトランプ氏の2024年大統領選出馬への影響についても議論がされています。さらに、共和党上院議員が報復を名目に法案を阻害し、司法指名を凍結する動きもあります。
🕋 イスラエルとハマスの停戦交渉とアメリカの立場
イスラエルとハマスの停戦交渉におけるアメリカの役割が議論され、特に、ネタニヤフ首相が停戦提案に反対する姿勢を明らかにしたことに関する影響が分析されています。アメリカ政府はハマスが提案を受け入れるか否かを決める重要な瞬間を迎えています。
🇲🇽 メキシコ初の女性大統領誕生とその意義
クローディア・シェイン・ボムがメキシコ初の女性大統領に選出されたことについて、その勝利の裏側と政策への影響が解説されています。シェイン・ボム氏は現在のメキシコ大統領アンドレス・マヌエル・ロペス・オブラドールの側に立ち、政策の継続性を示唆していますが、独自のアイデンティティを築く可能性も示唆されています。
📊 トランプ氏の支持率と選挙の動向
トランプ氏の有罪判決後の支持率と選挙の動向が分析され、特に黒人男性やラテン系アメリカ人の支持が強まっていることが指摘されています。また、トランプ氏が販売するスニーカーが黒人層を動かすとされる理由についても議論されています。
🏛️ トランプ氏の裁判とバイデン氏の対応
トランプ氏の裁判とバイデン氏の対応が比較され、トランプ氏の支持層が選挙を左右する可能性についても議論されています。トランプ氏の裁判が選挙戦に与える影響と、バイデン氏がそれをどう取り扱うかが分析されています。
🏢 ハンター・バイデンの裁判とその影響
ハンター・バイデンの裁判が開始され、陪審団の選出が行われています。彼は麻薬使用中に銃を購入し、その際に虚偽の申告をした容疑で起訴されています。裁判の結果がバイデン大統領とその家族に与える影響が分析されています。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡ハマス
💡停戦協定
💡ドナルド・トランプ
💡有罪判決
💡資金調達
💡選挙
💡報道
💡ガザ
💡人道支援
💡裁判官
💡懲役
Highlights
Donald Trump raises more money in New York as Republican lawmakers return to Washington with retribution plans.
ISRO pushes back on the proposal for a cease-fire; Prime Minister Netanyahu refuses to endorse a permanent stop in fighting until Hamas is destroyed.
Claudia Sheinbaum is elected as Mexico's first female president in history.
Former President Trump considers the possibility of being sentenced to jail during an interview on Fox.
Legal experts discuss the likelihood of Trump spending time behind bars, depending on his conduct before sentencing on July 11.
Trump's potential jail sentence could be influenced by his behavior and the recommendations from the D.A. and defense.
Hunter Biden's trial for buying a firearm while addicted to crack cocaine begins, with opening statements scheduled for tomorrow.
The case against Hunter Biden appears strong due to his own public admissions of drug addiction.
A plea deal for Hunter Biden that did not include prison time previously fell apart.
Donald Trump and the RNC raise $141 million in May, with 25% of donors being new.
Republican Senator Mike Lee threatens to slow down Senate progress in retribution for Trump's conviction.
Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel to address Congress on June 13, amidst disagreements on a cease-fire plan with Hamas.
The Biden administration's three-phase plan for a cease-fire faces pushback from Netanyahu.
Trump's conviction does not significantly alter poll results, as his support remains steady among certain voter groups.
Biden's campaign is focused on issues like inflation and immigration, which benefit Trump, while abortion and democracy issues benefit Biden.
Transcripts
>> FROM THE WORLD OF POLITICS TO THE WORLD OF BUSINESS.
THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER."
♪ LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.
JOE: FROM BLOOMBERG WASHINGTON, D.C.
STUDIOS TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME TO
"BALANCE OF POWER." ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ, I AM JOE
MATHIEU. KAILEY: DONALD TRUMP RAISES MORE MONEY
IN NEW YORK AS REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS RETURNED TO
WASHINGTON WITH RETRIBUTION PLANS.
WE WILL FOLLOW THE MONEY AND THE PLANNING.
JOE: ISRO PUSHES BACK ON THE PROPOSAL FOR A CEASE-FIRE
REVEALED LAST WEEK, PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU REFUSING TO
ENDORSE A PERMANENT STOP IN FIGHTING UNTIL HAMAS IS
DESTROYED. WE WILL DISCUSS WITH THE
ATLANTIC COUNCIL. KAILEY:
AND CLAUDIA SHINE BOMB IS ELECTED AS MEXICO'S FIRST
FEMALE PRESIDENT IN HISTORY. WE EXPLORE WHAT IT MEANS FOR
U.S.-MEXICO RELATIONS. THIS EVENING WE HAVE OUR EYES
ON MANY STORIES ABROAD, BUT STORIES YEAH I'M PROUD TO
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY ONE THING, LAST WEEK'S GUILTY
VERDICT.
JOE: CERTAINLY AS LAWMAKERS RETURN
TO WASHINGTON FROM THEIR MEMORIAL DAY RECESS, IT TAKES
ON NEW MEANING IN THE
CAPITAL, IN AN INTERVIEW THAT THE FORMER PRESIDENT SAT FOR
OVER THE WEEKEND ADVANCES HIS STORY AS HE CONSIDERS OUT LOUD
THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING SENTENCED TO JAIL.
HERE HE IS ON FOX -- >> THE JUDGE COULD DECIDE TO SAY HOUSE
ARREST OR EVEN JAIL.
>> I AM OK WITH THAT.
I SAW ONE OF MY LAWYERS ONE DAY ON TELEVISION SAYING NOW, YOU
DON'T WANT TO DO THAT TO THE PRESIDENT.
I SAID, YOU DON'T BEG FOR ANYTHING.
IT'S JUST THE WAY IT IS. I DON'T KNOW THAT THE PUBLIC
WOULD STAND IT NOT, SURE THE PUBLIC WOULD STAND FOR IT.
BUT AT SOME POINT, THERE IS A BREAKING POINT.
. KAILEY: LET'S BLOOMBERG'S ERIC LARSON,
LEGAL REPORTER FOR US. HOW MUCH ARE THE ODDS OF TRUMP
ACTUALLY SPENDING TIME BEHIND BARS DEPENDS ON HIS CONDUCT
BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN HE IS SENTENCED ON JULY 11? GUEST:
THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. BEFORE THE TRIAL STARTED, LEGAL
EXPERTS SAID THEY THOUGHT IT WAS UNLIKELY THAT TRUMP WOULD
BE SPENDING ANY TIME BEHIND BARS IF CONVICTED.
BUT A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW DEFENDANT BEHAVES AFTER THEY
ARE FOUND GUILTY. HE HAS SEEN PLENTY OF CASES
BEFORE WHERE THE DEFENDANT HAS ADMITTED SOME WRONGDOING AND
TAKEN RESPONSIBILITY AND THAT HAS HELPED THEIR OUTLOOK FOR
SENTENCE. NOT ONLY IS TRUMP NOT TAKING
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE VERDICT, HE IS GOING ON THE ATTACK, AND
AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND. SO IT REALLY WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH TIME THE D.A.
SUGGESTS, IF ANY, IN HIS SENTENCING RECOMMENDATION, AND
WHAT THE JUDGE COMES DOWN WITH AT THE SENTENCING ON JULY 11.
JOE: WE SHOULD REMIND OUR VIEWERS
AND LISTENERS THAT ERIC WAS AT THE COURTHOUSE FOR THE BULK OF
THE TRIAL AND YOU WERE JUST GREAT, ERIK, YOUR TEAM
TRANSLATING INFORMATION FOR US IN THE WORLD WITHOUT CAMERAS
AND MICROPHONES. BUT I AM COMPELLED BY THE NEXT
STEP, AND I BELIEVE THAT IS AN INTERVIEW THAT THE FORMER
PRESIDENT WILL HAVE WITH A PROBATION OFFICER.
HOW WILL THAT WORK?
>> IT'S A REALLY STANDARD PROCEDURE WHERE A DEFENDANT
CONVICTED HAS TO MEET WITH PROBATION INDIVIDUALS AND TRY
TO GIVE A SENSE OF WHO THEY ARE AS A PERSONAL, WHAT RISKS THEY
MIGHT FACE IF THEY ARE FLIGHT RISKS, THAT SORT OF THING.
SOMETHING THAT IS VERY SECRET, NOT SOMETHING WE ARE EXPECTING
TO SEE . REALLY THE BIGGEST PUBLIC
DOCUMENTS WE CAN EXPECT OUT OF THIS MIGHT BE THE
RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE D.A. AND PERHAPS FROM THE DEFENSE.
IT WILL BE FASCINATING TO BE A FLY IN THE WALL IN ONE OF THESE
INTERVIEWS BECAUSE IT WILL BE SOMETHING TRUMP HAS CERTAINLY
NEVER EXPERIENCED BEFORE.
KAILEY: YEAH, I THINK WE WOULD ALL LOVE
TO BE A FLY ON THE WALL IN THAT ROOM.
WE HAVE PAID ATTENTION IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO THIS
TRIAL, BUT A NEW TRIAL WITH POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS BEGAN
TODAY IN DELAWARE, THE PRESIDENT'S SON,
HUNTER BIDEN, ON TRIAL FOR ESSENTIALLY BUYING A FIREARM
AND LYING ABOUT HIS ADDITION TO CRACK COCAINE, AT LEAST THOSE
ARE THE ALLEGATIONS. WE UNDERSTAND OPENING
STATEMENTS WILL BE TOMORROW. HOW DIFFICULT IS THE CASE FOR
THE PRESIDENT'S SON AND HIS DEFENSE TEAM? ERIK:
IT DOES SEEM LIKE A FAIRLY DIFFICULT CASE ONLY BECAUSE I
WILL POINT OUT THAT SOME OF THE BIGGEST EVIDENCE THE GOVERNMENT
HAS AGAINST HUNTER BIDEN CAME FROM HIS OWN BOOK.
HE SORT OF ADMITTED IN PUBLIC THAT HE WAS ADDICTED TO DRUGS
AT THE TIME THAT HE GOT THIS FIREARM.
THAT BEING SAID, HIS LAWYERS HAVE A DEFENSE PLAN, THEY ARE
PLANNING TO ARGUE THAT TECHNICALLY SPEAKING, PERHAPS
BY THE LAW IS NOT ACTUALLY ADDICTED OR HIGH AT THE MOMENT
THAT HE BROUGHT THE WEAPON AND PERHAPS THERE IS A DISTINCTION
THERE, AND SOME OF THE LAWS AROUND THIS LAW ARE TOO BIG TO
BE APPLIED IN THIS SPECIFIC WAY. SO LAWYERS HAVE COME UP WITH
THEORIES TO GET AROUND THIS. POTENTIALLY, IT WILL BE UP TO
THE JURY, BUT SOME OF THE EVIDENCE COME STRAIGHT FROM
HUNTER BIDEN'S OWN
BOOK. JOE: THERE WAS A PLEA DEAL IN THIS
CASE AND IT PLAYED OUT IN THE PUBLIC EYE AS IT COMPLETELY
FELL APART, BUT IT DIDN'T INCLUDE PRISON TIME.
I WONDER IF THAT PLEA DEAL GIVES US ANY SENSE OF HOW THIS
CASE MIGHT RESULT. ERIK: WE NEVER GOT TO THAT STAGE, SO
IT'S UNCLEAR. BUT IT'S ALSO WORTH POINTING
OUT THAT THERE IS A SEPARATE CASE, A TAX RELATED CASE THAT
HUNTER BIDEN FACES FROM THE SAME SPECIAL COUNSEL THAT WAS
BROUGHT IN CALIFORNIA AT FEDERAL COURT THAT IS GOING ON
TRIAL IN SEPTEMBER. SO EVEN IF HUNTER BIDEN IS
CONVICTED, HE WILL STILL FACE THIS OTHER TRIAL AND EVEN IF HE
IS ACQUITTED, HE WILL FACE ANOTHER TRIAL, SO IT REALLY IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED SITUATION HE IS FACING HERE.
JOE: ERIK, GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE,
ERIK LARSSON, HAVING LIVED THROUGH THE TRIAL IN LOWER
MANHATTAN. WITH US ON "BALANCE OF POWER"
FOR MORE ON THE ONGOING FOLLOWED FROM TRUMP'S
CONVICTION, WE BRING IN OUR NEXT GUEST. GREAT TO SEE YOU AT
THE TABLE FOOD LAWMAKERS ARE COMING BACK TO
WASHINGTON, SO THIS IS THE NEXT LEG IN THE STORY AS WE GO
FROM THE LEGAL ASPECT OF THE POLITICAL NOT ONLY ON THE
CAMPAIGN TRAIL, BUT RESONATING IN WASHINGTON.
THE BIG HEADLINE SEEMS TO BE $52 MILLION, THE MONEY RAISED,
UP FROM $38 MILLION AT THE END OF LAST WEEK.
JUST MILLIONS OF DOLLARS CONTINUED TO COME IN.
SMALL DONATIONS AND IN MANY CASES, NEW DONORS.
WHAT ARE WE LEARNING ABOUT DONALD TRUMP'S CHANCES THROUGH
THE MONEY? GUEST: A QUARTER OF THOSE ARE NEW
DONORS AND WE ARE SEEING SMALL CASH AMOUNTS, ENSURING THAT
PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE A TON OF MONEY TO GIVE, STILL WANT TO
PARTICIPATE IN DEMOCRACY. THE INTERESTING THING IS WE
DIDN'T LEARN ANYTHING NEW ABOUT TRUMP AND HIS HISTORY.
IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 2016 ELECTION FROM THE TRIAL.
SO I DON'T KNOW IF THE MONEY THAT IS COMING IN, IF THAT
SIGNIFIES A SIGH OF RELIEF OF LIFE THIS PERSON DIDN'T
COMPLETELY GET THROWN OVERBOARD BY THE TRIAL, THAT IT'S NOT AS
BAD AS WE EXPECTED. OR IF IT KIND OF WAS LIKE OK,
WE CROSSED THAT RUBICON. HE IS CONVICTED, BUT STILL
STANDING THERE AND CONVENTIONS ARE COMING UP FROM THE DEBATE
IS COMING UP AND WE WILL PUT OUR MONEY THERE.
KAILEY: OR PERHAPS THE FACT THAT HE WAS
CONVICTED, IT PROVIDES EVIDENCE TO SOME THAT THIS IS ALL RIGGED
AGAINST HIM AND THEY WANT TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FROM THE TRUMP
CAMPAIGN TOGETHER WITH THE RNC SAID THEY RAISED $141 MILLION
IN MAY. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING SO MUCH
ABOUT THE CASH GAP BETWEEN TRUMP AND BIDEN, TRUMP HAVING
TO PLAY CATCH-UP. BUT FIGURES LIKE THIS, IT
POTENTIALLY IS A GAP THAT IS ALL BUT
CLOSED. SALEHA: ABSOLUTELY. WE HAVE BEEN SAYING THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS THAT POLLS SHOWED TRUMP EDGING AHEAD, BUT
THE MONEY SHOWS, THAT BIOTIN IS WINNING.
IF WE WILL USE THOSE SAME METRICS NOW, BIDEN IS WINNING
ON BOTH COUNTS. MAYBE THE SITTING PRESIDENT IS
AN UNDERDOG RIGHT NOW. JOE: SENATOR MIKE LEE SAYS HE WILL
SLOW THINGS DOWN IN THE SENATE, KEEP BIDEN INITIATIVES FROM
PROGRESSING, ALL IN THE NAME OF RETRIBUTION FOR DONALD TRUMP.
JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS WILL BE ON ICE.
I GUESS THE DOOR IS CLOSED IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE ON CAPITOL
HILL NOW.
SALEHA: ABSOLUTELY, THEY ARE LOOKING TO
GUM UP LEGISLATION IN WASHINGTON RIGHT NOW TO SHOW
THAT THEY THINK PROGRESSIVES AND DEMOCRATS ARE PUTTING THE
THUMB ON THE SCALE FOR THE TRUMP VERDICT OR THE TIMING OF
THAT TRIAL.
AND ALSO TO KIND SHOW A JUDGE HOW THINGS ARE PLAYING OUT.
IF YOU ARE A JUDGE ON THIS CASE AND YOU ARE SEEING PUBLIC
OUTCRY, I DON'T KNOW, I WOULD THINK YOU ARE A HUMAN BEING, IT
WILL AFFECT HOW YOU RULE. THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE MORE
PRISTINE. I DON'T KNOW IF IT WILL
INFLUENCE HIS THINKING. KAILEY:
WE WILL SEE HOW IT ACTUALLY INFLUENCES LEGISLATIVE BUSINESS
ON CAPITOL HILL. WE DO HAVE A DATE FOR BENJAMIN
NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL, GIVING A JOINT ADDRESS
TO CONGRESS. IT WILL BE NEXT WEEK, JUNE 13.
BIDEN WILL BE AT THE G7. BUT NETANYAHU AND BIDEN SEEM
LIKE THEY HAVE GOTTEN THEIR WIRES CROSSED POTENTIALLY.
WE HAVE THIS THREE-PHASE PLAN AND WE JUST NEED HAMAS TO SIGN
ON. NETANYAHU SAYING NOT SO FAST.
NOT ALL OF THIS IS AS YOU CHARACTERIZED IT.
WHAT IS GOING ON? SALEHA: IT'S BEEN HARD TO FIGURE OUT
WHAT IS THE U.S.
ADMINISTRATION'S SPIN VERSUS WHAT HAMAS IS SAYING AND WHAT
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU IS SAYING. OFFICIALS HAVE SAID THIS WAS
HAMAS'S PLANET THAT THEY PROPOSE THAT ISRAEL TURNED DOWN
A FEW WEEKS BACK AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A FEW BRUSHSTROKES
TO IT AND PROPOSE IT AGAIN. THEY DID GIVE NETANYAHU A
COUPLE OF HOURS NOTICE THAT THIS SPEECH WAS COMING AND HERE
ARE THE BRASS TACKS OF IT. NOW WE ARE SEEING NETANYAHU
EXPRESSING A BIT OF SURPRISE AND PUSHING BACK ON THAT DEAL.
KAILEY: PERHAPS WE WILL GET SOME MORE
COLOR WHEN HE ADDRESSES CONGRESS NEXT WEEK. JOE:
THAT'S RIGHT AND HE WILL NOT BE, APPARENTLY, VISITING THE
WHITE HOUSE. BLOOMBERG'S SALEHA MOHSIN,
THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR BEING WITH US. KAILEY: A SLEW OF.
SINCE TRUMP'S CONVICTION ARE OFFERING A VARIETY OF
INTERPRETATIONS OF HOW VOTERS ARE REACTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
PERMIT WE WILL SPEAK ON THAT A BIT AFTER THIS IS "BALANCE OF
POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.
♪ THE BREAK. THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER"
ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.
>> BEFORE THE CONVICTION, THE NUMBERS WERE IN THE LOW 20'S IN
THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY. THAT IS A HUGE CHANGE AND ONE
OF THE REASONS TRUMP DEFINITELY LOST VOTES BECAUSE OF THIS
CONVICTION. HE LOST WHITE SUBURBAN
HOUSEWIVES IN THE MIDWEST. NO QUESTION.
BUT THE REASON HE HASN'T GONE DOWN IN ANY OF THE OTHER
POLLING DATA IS HE SEEMS TO BE MAKING IT UP SOMEWHERE
ELSE. KAILEY: FORMER ACT TO WHITE HOUSE CHIEF
OF STAFF MICK MULVANEY ON THE EARLIER EDITION OF "BALANCE OF
POWER" TODAY. LET'S GO TO POSTER FRANK LUNTZ
WITH MORE PERMIT IN THE DAYS AND STRUMS A GUILTY VERDICT, WE
HAVE SEEN A NUMBER OF POLLS,, PICK YOUR POISON, EACH ONE
MIGHT MAKE YOU FEEL DIFFERENTLY. IS IT TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT THE
IMPACT OF THIS VERDICT REALLY IS ON THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL
OUTCOME? FRANK:
NO, ACTUALLY IT IS SOON ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT IT WILL NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE RESULTS AT THIS MOMENT, AND IN FACT THE
TWO PRESIDENTS' DEBATES WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT.
THAT THE GAINS TRUMP HAD MADE AMONG UNION MEMBERS, HISPANICS,
YOUNG AFRICAN-AMERICAN MEN, ARE SIGNIFICANT AND THEY ARE
HOLDING. THAT BIDEN'S GAINS AMONG
MIDDLE-AGED FEMALE SUBURBAN VOTERS, THOSE ARE HOLDING.
AND BASICALLY, THIS FEELS MORE LIKE WORLD WAR I.
IT IS JUST SIMPLY A GROUND GAME. IT'S A WAR OF ATTRITION, AND
THERE SIMPLY ISN'T THAT BIG DRAMATIC EVENT THAT MOST PEOPLE
HAD EXPECTED IF DONALD TRUMP WAS AND HAS BEEN FOUND GUILTY
OF ALL CHARGES. THAT IS WHAT I NEED TO
EMPHASIZE. THE ASSUMPTION WAS 90 DAYS AGO,
AT THAT IF DONALD TRUMP WAS FOUND GUILTY, THE BOTTOM WOULD
DROP OUT OF HIS SUPPORT AND THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED.
IT HAS WEEKEND, PEOPLE HAVE STARTED TO RECONSIDER WHETHER
OR NOT PEOPLE SUPPORT HIM. BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO DRAMATIC
SHIFT AND THAT IN ITSELF IS A VERY BIG STORY.
JOE: SPEAKING OF BIG STORIES, SOMETHING WE DISCUSSED EARLIER
WITH MICK MULVANEY ABOUT THIS MIGRATION FROM JOE IN DONALD
TRUMP WHEN IT COMES TO SOME BLACK VOTERS AND FROM WHAT WE
HAVE
UNDERSTAND, FROM POLLS, IN MANY CASES, OLDER BLACK MALE
VOTERS. BUT THE LOGIC HAS BEEN KIND OF
THING FOR ME. IF YOU ARE A STUDENT OF HISTORY
AND INTELLECTUAL. ARE WE TO BELIEVE THAT A
CONVICTION, DONALD TRUMP SELLING SNEAKERS, SOMEHOW MOVES
BLACK VOTERS AS A MONOLITH. FRANK:
THE SELLING OF SNEAKERS, I DON'T KNOW WHO CAME UP WITH
THAT IDEA, IF IT IS DONALD TRUMP HIMSELF. IT'S RIDICULOUS.
WE DON'T HAVE IT AMONG OLDER BLACK MEN, WE HAVE IT AMONG
YOUNGER BLACK MEN THAT THINK HE IS TOUGH, THEY
APPRECIATE HIS ATTITUDE THROUGH THAT THAT HE IS FIGHTING THE
SYSTEM.
BUT I THINK IT IS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAT THE LATINO
VOTE, TWICE AS HIGH THAN THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTE.
AND AMONG UNION VOTERS IN PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN AND
WISCONSIN WHICH ARE THE KEY STATES.
THERE ARE ONLY SEVEN STATES IN PLAY.
TRUMP IS CAP IN FOUR OF THE SEVEN BY FIVE POINTS OR MORE.
NEVADA, NORTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA, BUT HE IS VIRTUALLY
DEAD EVEN IN THE OTHER 3 -- PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. IF HE WINS THE FIRST FOUR, ALL
OF THEM, HE HAS 268 ELECTORAL VOTES. YOU NEED 200 72 WIN.
FOR TRUMP TO BE ELECTED, FOLLOW PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN AND
WISCONSIN AND ALL THREE OF THOSE SKATES ARE TOO CLOSE TO
CALL.
KAILEY: WE HAVE SEEING PRESIDENT BIDEN
SPENDING A LOT OF TIME IN THOSE THREE STATES AND WE HAVE ALSO
SEEN PRESIDENT BIDEN SPENT A LOT OF TIME ON THIS IDEA THAT
DONALD IS A DANGER TO DEMOCRACY. THAT DEMOCRACY SHOULD BE AN
ISSUE THAT VOTERS MAKE THEIR SELECTION ON COME NOVEMBER.
DOES HIS CONVICTION ADD MORE SALIENCY TO THAT ARGUMENT OR IS
THAT NOT GOING TO WIN OUT OVER THINGS LIKE THE ECONOMY AND THE
BORDER?
FRANK: IT ADDS MORE SALIENCY, BUT IT
DOES SO AMONG BIDEN VOTERS. IF YOU ARE ASKING INDEPENDENTS,
SWING VOTERS, PEOPLE WHO WOULD FOR DONALD TRUMP WAS ALREADY
BUT NOT TWICE, PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR HILLARY CLINTON OR JOE
BIDEN, BUT ARE CONCERNED ABOUT BIDEN'S REELECTION, INFLATION,
AND WHAT I SAY IS AFFORDABILITY, IT'S THE NUMBER
ONE ISSUE. HOUSING AND HEALTH CARE.
MAKING THOSE MORE AFFORDABLE IS BIDEN'S GREATEST WEAKNESS AND
TRUMP'S GREATEST STRENGTH. THE SECOND ISSUE IS IMMIGRATION
FROM THE CONTROL OF THE BORDER, FEAR OF CRIME AND
DESTABILIZATION AND WHO COMES ACROSS.
THAT ISSUE ALSO BENEFITS DONALD TRUMP BY ABOUT 10 POINTS.
THE THIRD ISSUE IS ABORTION. THAT ISSUE IS PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT AMONG YOUNG WOMEN AND IT COULD BE ENOUGH IN THESE KEY
STATES TO BRING OUT YOUNG WOMEN WHO OFTEN DON'T VOTE IN
PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS, AND THAT ISSUE BENEFITS JOE BIDEN.
YOU GET TO DEMOCRACY NEXT. IT IS THE FOURTH MOST
IMPORTANT, THE FOURTH MOST SALIENT ISSUE.
BUT LET'S FACE IT, WHEN EVERY VOTE COUNTS IN THESE KEY
STATES, I WOULD RATHER BE TALKING ABOUT IMMIGRATION, AND
INFLATION, OVER ABORTION AND DEMOCRACY. JOE:
WHEN JOE BIDEN IS IN NORMANDY LATER THIS WEEK, HE WILL BE
TALKING ABOUT DEMOCRACY AND I BELIEVE YOU WILL BE THERE FOR
THE 80TH ANNIVERSARY OF D-DAY. CAN -- CAN HE LEVERAGE THAT TO
DRAW THE CONTRAST BETWEEN HIS CAMPAIGN AND ONE THAT HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED AT TIMES WITH NANCY LANGUAGE, THE REICH POST THAT
WE SAW RECENTLY, NOT TO MENTION THE OVERALL TENOR OF THESE TWO
CAMPAIGNS?
FRANK: FRANK: THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION.
AND AS I ALWAYS, THE QUESTIONS YOU ALL ASK IN YOUR INTERVIEWS
ABSOLUTELY HIT THE MARK.
ONE OF RONALD REAGAN'S GREATEST SPEECHES WAS A POINT TO HAWK
AND I GET EMOTIONAL WHEN I THINK ABOUT IT BECAUSE THERE
ARE SO MANY VETERANS WHO WERE ALIVE THEN AND ARE GONE TODAY
AND REAGAN USED THAT SPEECH TO DECLARE TO THE APPLAUSE TO THE
REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS AND DEMOCRATS IN THE
SUPERIORITY OF GOVERNMENT, THE SUPERIORITY OF THE AMERICAN
CULTURE. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT JOE
BIDEN HAS NOT REALLY BEEN ABLE TO DO.
IS THIS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR HIM? ABSOLUTELY.
AND THE WORLD WILL BE WATCHING. MORE IMPORTANTLY, PENNSYLVANIA,
MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN WILL BE WATCHING.
BUT STILL, THE DATE THAT MATTERS MOST IN THIS
CONVERSATION IS JUNE 27, BECAUSE THAT WILL BE THE DAY
THAT DECIDES WHO WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT.
JOE: FRANK LUNTZ, GREAT TO HAVE YOU
BACK AND SAFE TRAVELS OVERSEAS. COMING UP ELECTING ITS FIRST
FEMALE PRESIDENT IN A LANDSLIDE LAST NIGHT FROM IT WE WILL HAVE
A LOOK AT WHAT THE VICTORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE COUNTRY AND
U.S.-MEXICO RELATIONS NEXT ON "BALANCE OF POWER"
ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.
>> I ALSO WANT TO THANK YOU, BECAUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
200 YEARS OF THE REPUBLIC, I WILL BECOME THE FIRST FEMALE
PRESIDENT OF MEXICO. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] JOE:
THAT WAS CLAUDIA SCHIERBAUM, MEXICO'S FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT
ELECT AFTER A LANDSLIDE VICTORY ON SUNDAY, THE FORMER MAYOR OF
MEXICO CITY WON BY A MARGIN OF MORE THAN 30 PERCENTAGE
POINTS. IMAGINE THAT IN THIS COUNTRY.
JOINING US NOW IS BLOOMBERG'S CREIGHTON HARRISON WITH MORE.
WE WOULD LOVE TO ASK YOU ABOUT WHAT WENT BEHIND THIS LANDSLIDE
VICTORY, BUT I WONDER IF YOU COULD START WITH PERSPECTIVE.
MEXICO BEAT THE U.S. IN ELECTING A WOMAN TO BE
PRESIDENT, HOW BIG A DEAL IS THAT FOR THE COUNTRY? CREIGHTON:
IT'S A HUGE DEAL IN ANY COUNTRY OBVIOUSLY, BUT MEXICO HAS DONE
A LOT OF WORK TO INCREASE FEMALE REPRESENTATION IN THE
POLITICAL SYSTEM. THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIT OF A
QUOTA SYSTEM THAT MAKES THE GENDER-BALANCE REQUIRED IN
CONGRESS FOR EXAMPLE,.
WE HAVE SEVERAL LEADERS FEAR OF GOVERNMENT BODIES, DEPARTMENTS
AND THE SUPREME COURT, THAT ARE WOMEN, SO IN SOMEWAYS THIS WAS
VERY HARD-FOUGHT AND A BATTLE AND CLAUDIA SHINE BOMB DESERVES
A LOT OF CREDIT AS THE FIRST, BUT IN SOME WAYS IT WAS A LONG
TIME COMING.
KAILEY: IT'S REMARKABLE THAT ANY WOMAN
DID THIS, BUT WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT HER IN ANY POLICY SHE IS
LIKELY TO SUPPORT AND HOW DIFFERENT WILL IT BE IN MEXICO
THAN UNDER AMLO? CRAYTON: YOU ARE ASKING A QUESTION ON
EVERYONE'S MIND. SHE IS THE PORTAGE.
OF ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR, CURRENT PRESIDENT.
SHE HAS VERY MUCH STUCK BY HIS SIDE AND AGREES WITH PRETTY
MUCH EVERY POLICY SHE HAS PUT FORTH AND SO SHE HAS PROJECTED
HERSELF AS A FIGURE OF CONTINUITY TO THE MEXICAN
ELECTORATE, WHICH CLEARLY LIKES WHAT AMLO HAS HAD TO OFFER IN
THE LAST SIX YEARS. SO THE QUESTION IS, DOES SHE
START TO FORGE HER OWN IDENTITY ONCE SHE TAKES
OFFICE? THERE IS A LOT OF SPECULATION
SHE MAY BE MORE OPEN, FOR EXAMPLE, TO FOREIGN INVESTMENT
IN NOT NECESSARILY IN PEMEX, THE STATE OIL COMPANY,
BUT OTHER FORMS OF ENERGY AND PERHAPS SOME RENEWABLE ENERGY,
THINGS LIKE THAT.
AND THEN OF COURSE, WILL SHE EMBRACE SOME OF THE REFORMS
THAT HE HAS PUT FORTH THAT SOME PEOPLE VIEW AS ANTIDEMOCRATIC,
FOR EXAMPLE, THE DIRECT ELECTION OF JUDGES WHICH PEOPLE
FEEL LIKE MIGHT PUT THE SUPREME COURT INTO A MORE POLITICAL
SPHERE.
JOE: WE JUST HAVE A MINUTE LEFT, I
WONDER, TO WHAT EXTENT THERE WILL BE CONTINUITY DONE WITH
RELATIONS BETWEEN OUR TWO COUNTRIES.
JOE BIDEN IS REPORTEDLY ABOUT TO DROP A NEW EXECUTIVE ACTION
ON THE BORDER TOMORROW. WILL CONVERSATIONS WITH HERS,
DO THEY SOUND LIKE THE SAME HE HAS HAD WITH AMLO? CRAYTON:
SHE MADE A VERY POINTED EFFORT LAST NIGHT TO EMPHASIZE THAT
SHE WANTED GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE U.S..
OBVIOUSLY IT IS MEXICO'S MOST IMPORTANT TRADE PARTNER AND
MEXICO IS THE U.S.'S, AND THERE IS A LOT OF SHARED INTERESTS.
THE MIGRATION PROBLEM IS SOMETHING MEXICO HAS BEEN
WORKING WITH THE U.S. FOR QUITE SOME TIME, SHE HAS
SAID SHE WILL CONTINUE THAT. BUT OBVIOUSLY, WITH THE
ELECTION IN NOVEMBER IN THE U.S., IT WILL BE A PRETTY
HEATED POLITICAL DISCUSSION IN THE NEXT FEW
MONTHS. KAILEY: ALRIGHT, BLOOMBERG'S CRAYTON
HARRISON, LIVE IN MEXICO CITY TONIGHT, THANK
YOU. COMING UP, OTHER ISSUES ABROAD,
INCLUDING ISRAEL'S REACTION TO
>> THE REAL QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS TO HAMAS.
HAMAS HAS THIS PROPOSAL IN FRONT OF THEM AND THEY ARE THE
DECISION-MAKER RIGHT NOW ON WHETHER IT CAN GO FORWARD OR
NOT. THE ROADBLOCK RIGHT NOW TO A
CEASE-FIRE IS NOT ISRAEL, IT IS HAMAS. JOE:
THAT WAS MATTHEW MILLER, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESPERSON,
EARLIER TODAY TALKING TO REPORTERS, PUTTING THE ONUS ON
HAMAS TO ACCEPT THE LATEST CEASE-FIRE PROPOSAL THAT
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU IS PUSHING BACK ON.
JOINING US IS THE SENIOR FELLOW AT THE LEAD COUNSEL, CARMIEL
ARBIT. PRESIDENT BIDEN'S REMARKS, A
THREE-PHASE PLAN. WE UNDERSTAND NETANYAHU'S
OFFICE APPROVED THE TEXT ON FRIDAY BUT WE ARE HEARING A
DIFFERENT TUNE IN AN INTERVIEW BENJAMIN NETANYAHU HELD, SAYING
THERE WILL BE NO PERMANENT CEASE-FIRE UNTIL HAMAS HAS BEEN
ELIMINATED. IS JOE BIDEN TRYING TO FORCE
THE HAND OF BENJAMIN NETANYAHU PUBLICLY OR IS NETANYAHU GAS
LIGHTING JOE BIDEN? CARMIEL: I THINK IT IS NOT QUITE AS
SIMPLE AS GAS LIGHTING OR FORCING HANDS.
THE ISRAELIS HAVE AGREED TO THE AGREEMENT OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEGOTIATIONS. WHAT REMAINS A QUESTION FOR
ISRAEL IS WHAT THE TIMELINE WILL LOOK LIKE AND WHAT NEEDS
TO HAPPEN FIRST IN ORDER FOR THE CEASE-FIRE TO TAKE EFFECT.
THE ISRAELIS ARE HOPING TO CONTINUE THEIR OPERATION IN
RAFAH, TO CONTINUE ALL OF THIS AS HAMAS CONSIDERS A DEAL.
WHAT WE'RE HEARING FROM THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT IS THEY
DON'T EXPECT HAMAS TO ACCEPT THESE TERMS. WHAT BIDEN IS
DOING, IS HE'S CREATING A NARRATIVE WHEREBY NETANYAHU HAS
AGREED TO A PROPOSAL. HE IS HOLDING HIM ACCOUNTABLE
FOR IT PUBLICLY AND PUTTING A HUGE ABOUT OF PRESSURE ON THE
ISRAELI GOVERNMENT INTERNALLY TO STANDBY IT DESPITE
OPPOSITION FROM RIGHT-WING ACTORS IN BIBI'S GOVERNMENT.
KAILEY: ON THAT POINT, IT WAS STRIKING
TO SEE OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARISONS TO THE THREATS
AGAINST BENJAMIN NETANYAHU IF HE WERE TO AGREE TO THIS TO
ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE EXPERIENCED WITH THE OUSTING OF KEVIN
MCCARTHY EFFECTIVELY. YOU DO THIS, YOU WILL BE KICKED
OUT. HOW REALISTIC IS IT THAT COULD
HAPPEN IN THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT AS A RESULT OF THIS?
CARMIEL: NETANYAHU'S GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY FRAGILE, PARTICULARLY AS THE WAR HAS RAGED ON AND WE
HAVE SEEN INCREASING TENSION POINTS.
THOSE TENSIONS HAVE BEEN OVER BOTH HOW THE WAR IS BE
EXECUTED, HOW HUMANITARIAN AID IS BEING DELIVERED, AND WHOSE
BEING RECRUITED TO SERVE IN ISRAEL'S MILITARY.
INDEED, THE FAR RIGHT AND ISRAEL COULD BRING DOWN THE
GOVERNMENT. THE LIKUD PARTY COULD ALSO
BRING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT. FIVE MEMBERS COULD DEFECT AND
BRING IT DOWN. WE ARE SEEING LOTS OF TENSIONS
AND THERE IS THAT CONCERN FOR NETANYAHU WHICH MAKES IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR HIM TO MAKE CONCESSIONS ON THE
INTERNATIONAL FRONT. HE SAID ARE HUGE ABOUT OF
PRESSURE FROM HOSTAGE FAMILIES TO SECURE THE RELEASE OF
HOSTAGES, BUT IS ALSO A HUGE AMOUNT OF PRESSURE FROM THE FAR
RIGHT TO MAKE SURE THAT HAMAS IS OBLITERATED IN GAZA. JOE:
YESTERDAY, JOHN KIRBY WAS TALKING ABOUT THIS AND SHARED
THAT ISRAEL WAS EXPECTED TO SAY YES TO THE UPDATED CEASE-FIRE
PLAN THAT THE PRESIDENT SHARED LAST WEEK. HERE IT IS.
>> WE HAVE EVERY EXPECTATION THAT IF HAMAS AGREES TO THE
PROPOSAL AS WAS TRANSMITTED TO THEM, AN IS REALLY PROPOSAL,
THAT ISRAEL WOULD SAY YES. PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU'S
FOREIGN MINISTER SAID THEY WELCOME THIS ANNOUNCEMENT BY
THE PRESIDENT AND THEY DID AGREE THAT THIS WAS THEIR
PROPOSAL. JOE: YET ON SATURDAY, BENJAMIN
NETANYAHU'S OFFICE SAID "ISRAEL'S CONDITIONS FOR ENDING
THE WAR HAVE NOT CHANGED." SO, IS THE TRUTH SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE? WE HAVE A SIX-WEEK PAUSE IN
FIGHTING ON THE TABLE. IS THAT WHAT WE SHOULD BE
REACHING FOR NOW? CARMIEL: I THINK THE QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY THESE STAGES UNFOLD. THE IDEA THAT A FIRST STAGE
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE A CEASE-FIRE AND WITHDRAWAL OF
ISRAELI FORCES WOULD INCLUDE NEGOTIATIONS FOR A MORE
PERMANENT OUTCOME. WHAT THEY HAVE SET IS A NUMBER
OF HOSTAGES WILL BE RELEASED. ONE OF THE CONDITIONS THE
ISRAELIS HAVE PUT FORWARD THAT THEY BACKED AWAY FROM WAS THAT
WOULD INCLUDE DECEASED BODIES AND LIVING HOSTAGES.
THAT IS A KEY COMPROMISE PROVISION WE HAVE NOT SEEN
EARLIER. AT THE SAME TIME, THE QUESTION
IS WHAT TAKES THIS TO THE NEXT PHASE OF A MORE PERMANENT
CEASE-FIRE AND THE REMOVAL OF HAMAS FROM POWER?
I THINK THAT IS WHERE THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. KAILEY:
I WONDER HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE IRONED OUT IF THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE ACCEPTED BY NEXT WEEK, WHEN WE UNDERSTAND
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU WILL BE GIVING A JOINT ADDRESS TO A
JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS. HOW COMPLICATED WILL THE
POLITICS AROUND THAT ADDRESS BE NOT JUST AT HOME, BUT FOR HIM
AS HE IS ALSO ADDRESSING A DOMESTIC AUDIENCE TOO? CARMIEL:
I WOULD NOT EXPECT HIS ADDRESS TO CONGRESS WILL IN ANY WAY
WEIGH IN THE DECISION-MAKING FACTOR AROUND THE CEASE-FIRE
AGREEMENT. BUT WHEN THEN YAHOO! COMES TO WASHINGTON --
NETANYAHU COMES TO WASHINGTON, HE WILL BE FACING CONSIDERABLE
HEADWAY FROM THE DEMOCRATS. HE'S ALSO GOING TO BE LOOKING
AT U.S. ON THE CUSP OF AN ELECTION.
THE FIRST THING HE WILL HAVE TO DO IS COME FORWARD AND MANY
WAYS HAVE HIS ZIELINSKI MOMENT TO AFFIRM WHY THE U.S.
NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISRAEL MILITARILY, PARTICULARLY
AFTER THE HUGE FIGHT WE JUST OVER THE EMERGENCY SUPPLEMENTAL
FUNDING PACKAGE TO ISRAEL. NETANYAHU IS BEING REMINDED HE
CANNOT TAKE THIS RELATIONSHIP FOR GRANTED.
THE SECOND THING HE WILL NEED TO DO IS LAY OUT SOME KIND OF A
VISION FOR THE DAY AFTER GAZA. WHETHER THAT IS AN IMMEDIATE
CEASE-FIRE OR LONG-TERM CEASE-FIRE AND WHAT COMES AFTER
THAT, THAT WILL BE THE MOMENT WHERE THEY WILL TALK ABOUT IT.
JOE: THE PLAN CENTERS AROUND NOT JUST A CEASE-FIRE, BUT THE
RESUMPTION AND INCREASE IN PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN AID TO
GAZA. I WONDER YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS
TEMPORARY PIER WE PUT A LOT OF BLOOD, SWEAT AND TEARS, AND
TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS INTO BUILDING.
IT'S BEING REPAIRED APPARENTLY AFTER WEATHER DAMAGE.
IS THIS STILL PART OF THE GRAND PLAN THAT THE U.S. IS OFFERING?
CARMIEL: I THINK AS WE HAVE DISCUSSED IN
THE PAST, HUMANITARIAN NEEDS IN GAZA ARE EXTENSIVE IN EACH
EFFORT TO ADMINISTER AID IS JUST A DROP IN THE BUCKET.
WE KNEW THERE WOULD BE COMPLICATIONS AROUND THE PIER,
NOT JUST THE PIE ITSELFR, BUT MOVING GOODS FROM THAT PIER
THROUGHOUT THE GAZA STRIP TO PEOPLE WHO NEED IT THE MOST.
THAT CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THERE IS A CEASE-FIRE.
CEASE-FIRE AND CESSATION OF VIOLENCE WILL MAKE TRANSPORTING
GOODS THROUGH THE STRIP EASIER, BUT CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN,
INCLUDING A LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE, DESPERATION AND
OTHER ISSUES. THERE WILL BE NO EASY FIXES TO
THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN GAZA EVEN DURING THE CEASE-FIRE.
KAILEY: IF THERE'S NO EASY FIXES, HOW
WILL WE KNOW WHAT METRICS WE WILL HAVE TO WEIGH WHETHER OR
NOT THE HUMANITARIAN AID ASPECT OF THE CEASE-FIRE DEAL HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN COMPLETED OR THAT ADEQUATE EFFORT HAS BEEN PUT IN?
HOW DO YOU JUDGE THIS? CARMIEL: I THINK AVERTING THE MOST DIRE
OF CIRCUMSTANCES, WHETHER IT IS STARVATION OR ANOTHER HEALTH
CRISIS WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT HAD BEEN BREWING, BUT HAS THUS
FAR BEEN AVERTED IS SOMETHING THAT WILL REALLY HELP SERVE AS
AN INDICATOR. BUT, WE WILL SEE THAT AID MOVE.
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE ENOUGH, AND WHETHER OR NOT IT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE, BUT
I THINK THERE IS THE PROSPECT FOR IMPROVEMENT. KAILEY:
CARMIEL ARBIT, OF THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL, THANK YOU FOR JOINING
US. COMING UP, WE WILL TURN TO HER
POLITICAL PANEL AS WE LOOK AT THE RETRIBUTION PLANS THAT
CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS HAVE IN RESPONSE TO THE FELONY
CONVICTION OF DONALD TRUMP LAST WEEK.
MORE NEXT ON "BALANCE OF POWER"
KAILEY: THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER.
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND THE RNC BRAKED IN A MASSIVE
$141 MILLION HAUL IN MAY ACCORDING TO HIS CAMPAIGN WHICH
SAYS 25% OF DONORS LAST MONTH WERE NEW.
TENS OF MILLIONS OF THAT CAME AFTER HIS FELONY CONVICTION
LAST WEEK. JOINING US NOW IS OUR POLITICAL
PANEL.
RICK DAVIS AND JEANNIE SHENZHEN , SENIOR DEMOCRACY FELLOW WITH
THE CENTER FOR STUDY OF THE PRESIDENCY AND CONGRESS.
RICK, OBVIOUSLY, WE WON'T KNOW HOW THIS CHANGES VOTES
REALISTICALLY UNTIL NOVEMBER BUT WE KNOW HOW IT IS CHANGING
THE MOVEMENT OF MONEY. IF 25% OF THE DONORS IN MAY
WERE NEW, THAT'S A PRETTY GOOD SIGN FOR DONALD TRUMP. RICK:
YEAH, THAT IS NEW MONEY COMING INTO YOUR CAMPAIGN, NEW DONORS
IS A VERY HEALTHY SIGN. IT SHOWS THAT VOTERS ARE
LOOKING HIS WAY AND SAYING I AM WILLING TO PLACE A BET.
SOME DONORS, THEY LIKE TO GO AFTER SOMEONE THAT THEY WILL
WIN. SO, THERE'S PROBABLY A LITTLE
OF THAT HE'S GOING TO WIN AND I WANT TO BE IN. IT RHYMES.
I WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THAT, INCLUDING THE BIG DONORS.
SO MANY OF THESE BIG REPUBLICAN DONORS TEND TO SIT ON THE
SIDELINES UNTIL THEY KNOW WHO WILL BE THE NOMINEE OR WHO WILL
WIN THE ELECTION AND THEN THEY START PILING ON.
I THINK YOU ARE SEEING A REAL MOVEMENT IN THAT REGARD.
BIG NUMBERS FOR DONALD TRUMP. IT WILL CHANGE THE NARRATIVE
THIS WEEK BASED ON WHAT WAS A HORRIFIC WEEK LAST WEEK ON THE
LEGAL FRONT. JOE: BIG NUMBERS INDEED.
$141 MILLION FOR TRUMP. $52.8 MILLION WAS THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD FOLLOWING THE VERDICT.
25% NEW DONORS ON THE MONTH, 30% WERE NEW WHEN THAT POCKET
OF TIME FOLLOWING THE VERDICT. WHAT IS THE TAKEAWAY FOR JOE
BIDEN? WHAT IS THE LESSON FOR THE
BIDEN CAMPAIGN?
>> THOSE NUMBERS DON'T EVEN INCLUDE THE SOFT MONEY WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A LOT OF BIG MONEY.
WE DO KNOW LAST WEEK, DONALD TRUMP EVEN THE NIGHT OF THE
CONVICTION, WENT OUT WITH SOME BIG DONORS FOR DINNER AND HE
DID THAT EVERY NIGHT. HE PROBABLY HAS RATKED IN AN
ENORMOUS AMOUNT. FOR THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN, IT
MEANS THEY HAVE TO KEEP MOVING ALONG WHERE THEY WERE IN TERMS
OF MONEY. THEY WERE DOING FAIRLY WELL
WITH MONEY. THIS IS A RACE THAT WILL BE
FOUGHT IN SIX TO SEVEN SWING STATES SO THE OPERATION ON THE
GROUND IS CRITICAL. THEY HAVE SET UP A NUMBER OF
OFFICES.
WHEN IT PERTAINS TO THE CONVICTION ITSELF, THERE'S A
HUGE DEBATE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HOW TOUGH SHOULD JOE
BIDEN GO ON DONALD TRUMP ON THIS. I THINK YOU ARE LOOKING AT
THESE NUMBERS IN TERMS OF THE MONEY, THE POLLS WHICH HAVE NOT
MOVED MUCH SINCE THE CONVICTION ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT NOTHING
JOE BIDEN HAS TO BE AGGRESSIVE BECAUSE IF HE IS NOT, THIS
THREATENS TO GET AWAY FROM THEM. SO, I THINK THEY WILL HAVE TO
ENSURE THAT HE AND HIS SURROGATES ARE AGGRESSIVE ON
THE FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP IS A CONVICTED FELON. KAILEY:
JEANNE, YOU SPEAK ABOUT DEBATE OVER THIS WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC
PARTY. IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE THERE'S
TOO MUCH DEBATE WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
MOSTLY, EVERYBODY IS STICKING TO THE PARTY LINE, HOW THIS IS
RICK FROM THE START AND UNFAIR FOR FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP.
EVEN THOSE THAT ARE VERY ON THE MARGINS TRY TO STRAY AWAY FROM
THAT, INCLUDING LARRY HOGAN, THE FORMER GOVERNOR OF MARYLAND
WHO JUST SAID YOU HAVE TO RESPECT THE VERDICT IN THE WAY
THE JUSTICE SYSTEM PLAYED OUT.
NOW GETTING KIND OF ILLINOIS VILLAINIZED BY THE RNC. JEANNE:
THEY ARE CIRCLING THE WAGONS FOR SURE.
THE LARRY HOGAN INSTANCE WAS QUITE REMARKABLE BECAUSE THE
ASTONISHING THING HE SAID WAS RESPECT THE DECISION BASICALLY.
AND HE WAS HIT BACK BY LARA TRUMP -- THEY ARE CLEARLY
TRYING TO MAKE SURE THAT THERE IS NO SORT OF ROOM FOR ANY
REPUBLICAN OF NOTE TO TRY TO CRITICIZE DONALD TRUMP ON THIS.
THEY ARE CLEARLY CIRCLING THE WAGONS BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT
THIS IS A NEGATIVE FOR ANYBODY RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT TO BE A
CONVICTED FELON. AND THEY DON'T HAVE TO LOOK FAR
TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT. THREE DAYS BEFORE THE 2016
CAMPAIGN, DONALD TRUMP HIMSELF SET OF HILLARY CLINTON, A
CONVICTED FELON RUNNING FOR OFFICE OR BEING PRESIDENT WILL
GRIND THIS GOVERNMENT TO A HALT. YOU CANNOT LET IT HAPPEN.
OF COURSE, HE MET IN THE CASE OF HER, AND NOW THAT THE SHOE
WAS ON THE OTHER FOOT AND THEY KNOW THAT AS WELL.
THEY ARE TRYING TO ENSURE THAT REPUBLICANS KNOW THEY HAVE TO
STAY IN LINE ON THIS. JOE: WE'VE HAD A COUPLE OF
INTERESTING EXAMPLES OF FALLOUT HERE.
THE LARA TRUMP COMMENT ABOUT LARRY HOGAN IS ONE OF THEM.
WE ARE SEEING THIS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN CAPITOL HILL.
MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE HAS THIS DEFUND NEW YORK MOVEMENT WHICH
I'M GUESSING WE SHOULD NOT PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO.
MIKE LEE HAS A SIGNIFICANT ROADBLOCK IN THE SENATE.
BASICALLY ANYTHING COMING OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE IS DOA,
INCLUDING JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS. WE ARE SHOWING YOU THE LETTER
THAT MICHAEL HE WITH SOME OF
HIS COLLEAGUES -- MIKE LEE COSIGNED WITH SOME OF HIS
COLLEAGUES. THIS IDEA OF REPUBLICAN
RETRIBUTION EQUALS WHAT? RICK: WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THINGS
WILL BE GRINDING TO A HALT ANYWAY.
IT IS NOW ELECTION SEASON. THERE'S NO MUST PASS
LEGISLATION SO EVERYONE WILL BE PLAYING THESE KIND OF MESSAGING
GAMES. OBVIOUSLY, NOT LETTING ANY
FURTHER CONFIRMATIONS OF FEDERAL JUDGES WOULD BE
STANDARD OPERATING PRACTICE. BUT PUTTING IT IN THE CONTEXT
OF THE FORMER PRESIDENT WAS JUST CONVICTED OF 34 FELONIES
IS PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL. EVERYTHING IS IN THAT LIGHT
THESE DAYS. SO, I THINK IT IS WORTH PAYING
ATTENTION TO. ANYBODY WHO THOUGHT THEY WERE
GOING TO TRY TO FIND SOMETHING TO GET DONE AND CONGRESS
BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY, FORGET ABOUT IT.
ANYTHING THAT IS A ROADBLOCK IS PROBABLY GOING TO PUT IN THE
LIGHT OF, OH, REPUBLICANS RALLYING AROUND DONALD TRUMP.
BY THE WAY, REPUBLICANS WOULD HAVE EXPECTED TO RALLY AROUND
DONALD TRUMP. WE SAW BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 2023
WHEN THE INDICTMENTS STARTED THAT DONALD TRUMP WAS AT HIS
LOWEST. HE WAS LOSING TO RON DESANTIS IN PRIMARY NUMBERS AS
FAR AS POLLING GOES. ALL OF A SUDDEN, ONE
INDICTMENT, RALLY AROUND DONALD TRUMP.
TWO INDICTMENTS, RALLY AROUND DONALD TRUMP.
IT WILL PLAY OUT THE REST OF THE SUMMER.
SUMMER IS KIND OF THE DEAD SPOT IN PRIMARIES RIGHT NOW.
ALL ATTENTION WILL START TO FOCUS ON THIS DEBATE AT THE END
OF JUNE. KAILEY: AT THE END OF THE SUMMER, RICK,
IT IS QUICKLY SEPTEMBER AND SEPTEMBER 30 IS A FUNDING
DEADLINE.
JIM JORDAN, THE CHAIR OF THE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE, SUBMITTED
LEGISLATE PROPOSALS TO DEFUND WHAT HE CALLED LAWFARE.
IS THIS ACTUALLY GOING TO BE THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BATTLE,
WHETHER OR NOT THE SPECIAL COUNSEL'S OR THOSE LOOKING INTO
TRUMP CAN GET FUNDED? IS THAT THE LEGISLATIVE
CONSEQUENCE? RICK: I DON'T THINK SO.
THIS IS A CONGRESS THAT WILL BE VERY HIGHLY POLITICIZED.
OTHER THAN THE NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT THAT IS
NICELY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE,
EVERYTHING ELSE IS BASICALLY BEING PUT ON HOLD.
IT IS NOT LIKE ANYTHING ELSE IS RUSHING TO GET TO A DEADLINE.
THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE HAVE NOT MADE A SEPTEMBER SPENDING
DEADLINE IN A DECADE. LET'S NOT HOLD OUR BREATH AND
THINK ANYTHING WILL DERAIL THAT. IT IS ALREADY DERAILED. JOE:
THE FACTOR IS CLOSED. COMING UP, A JURY IS SELECTED
IN HUNTER BIDEN'S GOING TRIAL JUST BEGINNING TODAY.
RICK AND JEANNE WILL BE BACK WITH US TO TALK ABOUT THE
IMPLICATIONS NEXT.
>> I THINK IT IS A STRONG CASE AND NOTHING HUNTER BIDEN'S
GOOSE I S COOKED. DID HE KNOWINGLY BUY A FIREARM
AS AN ABUSER END USER OF A SUBSTANCE?
HE BOUGHT THE GUN IN 2019. HE WAS ALREADY A USER AND
ABUSER, AS CHRONICLED IN HIS BOOK. EVERYONE KNOWS IT. JOE:
THAT WAS ATTORNEY WITH US ON THE EARLY EDITION OF BALANCE OF
POWER TALKING ABOUT THE HUNTER BIDEN GUN CASE.
THE TRIAL UNDERWAY. THE JURY IS SELECTED.
BACK WITH US IS OUR POLITICAL PANEL, RICK AND JEANNE.
GOOD TO SEE YOU BOTH AGAIN.
JEANNE, IT IS NEVER GOOD WHEN DANNY KAREN SAYS ON TV THAT
YOUR GOOSE IS COOKED. WHAT DOES IT MATTER POLITICALLY
FOR JOE BIDEN? JEANNE: IT IS A VERY TOUGH DAY FOR JOE
BIDEN AND I THINK PERSONALLY, THE ENTIRE FAMILY MORE THAN
ANYTHING. WE HAVE SEEN THEM HUGGING
HUNTER BIDEN VERY CLOSE JUST OVER THE LAST WEEKEND, GOING TO
CHURCH TOGETHER, BIKING. THE FIRST LADY IN THE COURTROOM
WITH HIM TODAY. THIS IS VERY TOUGH FOR THEM.
HUNTER BIDEN IS AN ADMITTED ADDICT.
HE WAS IN RECOVERY AT THE TIME OF THIS PURCHASE.
I THINK THE ATTORNEY IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
THERE IS PROBABLY A GOOD DEAL OF EVIDENCE FOR THEM TO GET HIM
CONVICTED ON THIS AND I THINK THE PRESIDENT IS FEELING LIKE
ANY PARENT WOULD ABOUT THIS. AS HE SAID, I AM A FATHER, I
LOVE MY SON. I SUPPORT HIM COMPLETELY.
I AM ALSO PRESIDENT. SO, HE'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY, BUT I DO BELIEVE HUNTER BIDEN,
UNLESS THE DEFENSE IS ABLE TO FIND A WAY TO SHOW HE DIDN'T
CHECK THAT BOX IS GOING TO PROBABLY BE CONVICTED OF THESE
CHARGES. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE
THERE'S A WAY AROUND THIS LEGALLY. KAILEY:
OBVIOUSLY, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE BETWEEN THIS
TRIAL AND THE TRIAL OF DONALD TRUMP.
ONE BEING THAT HUNTER BIDEN IS NOT RUNNING FOR ANY KIND OF
ELECTED OFFICE. HE'S THE SON OF THE PRESIDENT,
NOT TRYING TO BE ONE HIMSELF, BUT DOES THIS MAKE IT HARDER
FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN TO CAST SO MUCH ATTENTION TOWARDS TRUMP'S
CONVICTION IF HIS SON COULD END UP CONVICTED OF A FELONY AS
WELL? RICK:
I THINK THE TRUMP CONVICTION SWARMS OVER EVERYTHING.
IT IS THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY A FORMER PRESIDENT HAS EVER
BEEN CONVICTED OF A CRIME.
THERE HAVE BEEN ALL KINDS OF SONS, DAUGHTERS, FAMILY NUMBERS
OF PRESIDENTS THAT HAVE DONE BAD THINGS AND NO ONE CARED
ABOUT IT. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS,
I THINK THE HUNTER BIDEN THEY WILL BE A DISTRACTION.
IT DOES KIND OF FREEZE UP THINGS.
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IT THIS WEEK RIGHT AFTER A MAJOR
CONVICTION OF THE PRESIDENT FOR THESE 34 COUNTS.
SO, IT DOES KIND OF PUT A BLANKET OVER THE CAMPAIGN.
I WOULD SAY THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR, THE SUMMER WHERE VOTERS
TAKE A BREAK. THEY ARE REALLY NOT PAYING
ATTENTION MUCH TO WHAT'S GOING ON.
IF YOU HAD A TIMETABLE, IF YOU ARE THE DEMOCRATS AND TRUMP
TRYING TO SAY WINDOW I WANT TO GO OUT AND GET CONVICTED OF
SOMETHING, NOW IS THE TIME. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DO
PEOPLE REALLY CARE ABOUT IT? I WOULD DOUBT THIS WOULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT, BUT THIS ELECTION WILL BE ON SUCH SMALL MARGINS.
100,000 PEOPLE, 50,000 PEOPLE, THAT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS ELECTION. JOE: WE JUST HAVE A MINUTE.
JEANNE, YOU MENTIONED THE PERSONAL TRIAL THAT THIS IS FOR
THE BIDEN FAMILY. WE SAW THE FIRST LADY IN THE
COURTROOM TODAY. TO THE EXTENT THAT JOE AND JILL
BIDEN STICK WITH THEIR SON, IS THAT NOT SOMETHING THAT VOTERS
WOULD REWARD? JEANNE: I DON'T KNOW IF THEY WILL
REWARD IT, BUT I DO THINK THEY WILL SEE JOE BIDEN AND THE
FIRST LADY AS VERY HUMAN. SO MANY OF US KNOW PEOPLE THAT
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH ADDICTION. THIS IS VERY DIFFICULT.
AND JILL BIDEN HAS MADE THAT CASE.
I THINK PEOPLE WILL SAY THE HUMAN SIDE OF HIM. KAILEY:
JEANNE AND RICK, OUR SIGNATURE POLITICAL PANEL, THANK YOU SO
MUCH. FOR MORE COVERAGE OF THE HUNTER
BIDEN TRIAL AND OTHER STORIES NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO, CHECK
OUT THE WASHINGTON EDITION NEWSLETTER ON THE TERMINAL AND
ONLINE.
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