Why Turkey is Stepping Up Support for Ukraine

Summary

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Turkey has skillfully balanced its relations with both Ukraine and Russia. While offering mediation and diplomatic support to Ukraine, Turkey also maintained ties with Russia, benefiting economically and strategically. However, recent shifts in Turkey's stance have seen it adopt a more pro-Ukraine position, supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity, NATO membership, and offering security guarantees. This change is influenced by Erdogan's desire to mediate, international opinion turning against Russia, Turkey's military power, and potential leverage over the EU. These dynamics raise questions about Turkey's future role in European security.

Takeaways

• 😀 Turkey has carefully balanced its foreign policy since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, trying to maintain ties with both Ukraine and Russia.
• 😀 President Erdoğan has played a key role as a mediator, facilitating peace talks and brokering agreements, such as the Black Sea grain deal in 2022.
• 😀 Turkey’s refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia has allowed it to import Russian energy and act as a transit hub for Russian oil and gas.
• 😀 The Turkish economy benefited from Russia avoiding sanctions, while Turkey sold drones and military equipment to Ukraine.
• 😀 Turkey’s position on NATO membership has fluctuated, as evidenced by its refusal to allow Sweden and Finland into NATO for a period of time.
• 😀 Recently, Turkey has started to sound more supportive of Ukraine, including backing Ukraine's territorial integrity and NATO membership.
• 😀 Erdoğan's support for Ukraine has included advocating for Ukraine's recovery of pre-2024 borders, including Crimea, and offering a post-war security guarantee.
• 😀 The shift in Turkey's position might be motivated by Erdoğan's desire to keep Ukraine on side and ensure that a favorable peace deal is reached, rather than one imposed by the US or Russia.
• 😀 A change in global opinion, particularly in the UN General Assembly vote, reflects increasing resistance to Russia and support for Ukraine, which aligns with Turkey’s stance on a multipolar world.
• 😀 Turkey’s interest in Ukraine regaining its territory, including Crimea, is driven by its goal to reduce Russian influence in the Black Sea region.
• 😀 Erdoğan may be using Turkey's support for Ukraine as leverage to secure closer ties with the European Union, possibly in exchange for support on Turkey’s EU accession and military involvement.

Q & A

How has Turkey positioned itself since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

Turkey has tried to maintain a delicate balancing act, supporting Ukraine but not openly opposing Russia. This approach has helped Turkey emerge as a key mediator in the conflict.

What diplomatic role has Turkey played in the Ukraine-Russia conflict?

Turkey has played a key role as a mediator, hosting negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in March 2022 and later facilitating the Black Sea grain deal, allowing Ukrainian exports through Turkish-controlled waters.

How has Turkey managed its economy during the war in Ukraine?

Turkey has avoided joining most Western sanctions against Russia, allowing it to import Russian energy and act as a transit hub for Russian oil and gas, which provided Turkey with much-needed foreign currency.

What has Turkey’s stance been on Sweden and Finland joining NATO?

Turkey initially blocked Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership to extract various concessions from NATO members, while also maintaining good relations with Russia.

Why has Turkey recently shown more support for Ukraine?

Turkey has shifted its stance partly due to international pressure, a desire to maintain good relations with Ukraine, and a broader geopolitical shift away from Russia, especially with countries like the US and Russia becoming more aligned in their opposition to Ukraine.

What specific statements has President Erdogan made regarding Ukraine’s territorial integrity?

Erdogan has reaffirmed his support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity as non-negotiable, which includes supporting Ukraine’s recovery of all pre-2024 territory, including Crimea.

What is Turkey's strategic interest in supporting Ukraine's territorial recovery, particularly Crimea?

Turkey wants to remove Russian influence from the Black Sea, which is a key strategic region for them. Supporting Ukraine’s territorial recovery, including Crimea, aligns with Turkey's desire to secure its own maritime interests.

What is the significance of Erdogan's comments about Ukraine joining NATO?

Erdogan's support for Ukraine joining NATO directly contrasts with the US stance under the Trump administration, which was less supportive of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, highlighting Turkey’s position as a defender of Ukraine's sovereignty and NATO aspirations.

How does Turkey aim to leverage its military power in the European security framework?

Turkey, with one of the largest NATO armies, aims to use its military strength as leverage to secure political or economic benefits, including potential closer ties with the EU or concessions on its ongoing domestic policies.

What is the broader geopolitical context influencing Turkey’s actions regarding Ukraine and Russia?

Turkey’s actions reflect a wider shift in international opinion, where countries are increasingly distancing themselves from Russia and the US, while Turkey positions itself as a mediator and advocate for a multipolar world order, challenging traditional power structures dominated by superpowers.