Fundos Imobiliários 2025 | MXRF11 versus MXRF11: não seja enganado!

Summary

In this video, Ricardo Natal addresses misconceptions about real estate investment funds, particularly focusing on paper-based funds and the impact of rising interest rates (15% SELIC). He explains how funds linked to CDI and inflation (IPCA) will actually pay higher dividends in such a market, making them valuable despite market fluctuations. By showcasing the MXRF11 fund's recent price changes and contrasting them with its actual value, he demonstrates the importance of buying low to maximize dividends. Additionally, he introduces VG11, a promising fund with strong returns due to its CDI-linked contracts and high dividend yield potential.

Takeaways

• 😀 The current economic scenario includes a 15% SELIC rate and inflation near 5%, which could create investment opportunities.
• 😀 Rising SELIC rates do not automatically lead to falling real estate investment fund (FII) prices, particularly for funds tied to CDI and IPCA, which may actually benefit.
• 😀 Paper-based real estate funds (FIIs) can offer a dual benefit in 2025: they may provide higher dividends while being purchased at discounted prices.
• 😀 A focus on buying cheap FII units, particularly paper funds, offers the potential for both price appreciation and increased dividend payouts.
• 😀 A recent drop in the price of MXRF11 units, due to market movements rather than fund performance, highlights the importance of not reacting hastily to short-term market fluctuations.
• 😀 It's crucial to distinguish between the market price of an FII and its intrinsic value. A lower market price can present a buying opportunity, especially if it is below the fund's fair value.
• 😀 When evaluating FIIs, it is more important to focus on dividends and their reinvestment rather than the short-term price movements of the fund's units.
• 😀 The historical price swings of MXRF11, including its peak price of R$ 13.78 in 2020, underline the risks of buying at inflated prices and the benefits of purchasing during price drops.
• 😀 Reinvesting dividends from a fund like MXRF11 could result in significantly higher returns over time compared to merely holding the units without reinvestment.
• 😀 VG11 (Valora CRI), a recommended paper fund, offers attractive dividend yields above the CDI, especially in a high SELIC environment, and is currently available at a discount.
• 😀 VG11 has a diversified portfolio with a risk-controlled profile, and its dividend yield consistently stays between 13% and 16%, making it an appealing option for 2025 investments.

Q & A

What is the current economic situation mentioned in the script?

The current economic situation includes a 15% SELIC rate and an inflation rate of nearly 5%. The market is experiencing distortions in asset prices, creating investment opportunities, particularly in real estate funds (fundos imobiliários).

Does an increase in the SELIC rate automatically lead to a drop in real estate fund prices?

No, an increase in the SELIC rate does not automatically result in a drop in real estate fund prices. For paper funds (fundos imobiliários de papéis), which are linked to the CDI and IPCA, higher SELIC rates can actually increase dividend payouts, making them more attractive to investors.

How do real estate funds related to CDI and IPCA react to changes in interest rates and inflation?

Real estate funds tied to CDI and IPCA react positively to increases in SELIC and inflation, as these funds pay higher dividends when these indices rise, making them a more attractive investment in such economic conditions.

Why is the MXRF11 fund mentioned as an example of market distortion?

MXRF11 is used as an example because its price dropped significantly due to market demand fluctuations, even though its fundamental value remained stable. This highlights how market movements can mislead investors, causing them to buy or sell at the wrong times.

What is the significance of the price vs. net asset value (NAV) comparison for MXRF11?

The comparison between the price and NAV of MXRF11 shows that the fund's market price can fluctuate significantly, even diverging from its actual value (NAV). Investors should consider buying when the price is below the NAV for better value, as was the case in 2022.

What impact does buying MXRF11 at a lower price have on dividends?

Buying MXRF11 at a lower price results in a higher dividend yield. For example, purchasing the fund at R$8.85 provided a higher dividend payout compared to buying it at a higher price (R$13.78), which demonstrates the importance of purchasing at favorable price points.

What is the benefit of reinvesting dividends in real estate funds like MXRF11?

Reinvesting dividends significantly boosts long-term returns. The reinvested dividends compound over time, leading to much higher gains, as seen in the example of someone who reinvested dividends for 10 years and turned an initial R$1,000 investment into R$2,857.

What does a P/V ratio of 1.0 for MXRF11 indicate?

A P/V ratio of 1.0 for MXRF11 indicates that the fund is neither overpriced nor underpriced based on its net asset value. This suggests that the fund is fairly valued at the current market price.

What is the VG11 fund, and why is it recommended for 2025?

VG11 is a real estate fund composed of a diversified portfolio, with most of its earnings tied to CDI. It is recommended for 2025 because it offers high dividend yields, especially in a high SELIC rate environment, and its risk is considered well-managed.

How can the VG11 fund benefit investors in the context of high SELIC rates?

VG11 can benefit investors by providing high dividends tied to the SELIC rate. As the SELIC rate increases, the fund’s dividends will also rise, making it an attractive option for those looking for strong returns during periods of high interest rates.