'It's on - what will the 2024 election be like?'

Summary

In this episode of 'Electoral Dysfunction,' hosts Beth and Ruth discuss the unexpected announcement of a July 4th election by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. They delve into the possible reasons behind the sudden decision, speculate on the upcoming six-week campaign, and address the technicalities of what happens with Parliament during this period. The conversation also touches on the human aspect of politics, the challenges faced by MPs, and the potential impact of the election on the country. Amidst the serious discussion, they also comment on the PM's optics during his announcement, highlighting the importance of presentation in politics.

Takeaways

• 📅 The Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has called for a snap election on July 4th, catching many by surprise.
• ☕️ Beth, one of the speakers, mentions her personal routine of needing two cups of tea before moving on to coffee, indicating a change in her day due to the election announcement.
• 🎥 There is a discussion about the secrecy surrounding the election call, with Beth giving credit to Rishi Sunak for keeping it under wraps.
• 🗣️ There is speculation about why the election is being held now, with theories ranging from economic factors to potential scandals.
• 💬 Mention of a rumor about more scandals potentially emerging ('SAS in the pipeline'), suggesting that preempting bad news might be a reason for the sudden election call.
• 🏛️ The dissolution of Parliament is discussed, with the official campaign starting after the dissolution on May 31st.
• 📉 The transcript touches on economic issues such as inflation rates and wage growth, suggesting these are factors in the election timing.
• 🌧️ The poor optics of Rishi Sunak's speech, delivered in the rain, are criticized, with suggestions that it might negatively impact his campaign.
• 📉 There is concern expressed about the need for a clearer narrative from the Labour party, beyond just the promise of 'change'.
• 🤝 The potential for tactical voting and the importance of local campaigns in securing a majority are highlighted as key aspects of the election strategy.
• 👥 Personal stories and the human aspect of politics are also discussed, with the impact of the election call on MPs' personal lives and relationships being considered.

Q & A

Why did Rishi Sunak decide to call for an election on July 4th?

The transcript suggests several theories: Sunak may need a new narrative as he hasn't clearly articulated why he called the election; there might be positive financial news that he wants to capitalize on, such as inflation rates dropping; there could be upcoming scandals that he wants to preempt; and there may be internal party pressure or defections that he's trying to address by calling the election sooner rather than later.

What was the reaction of MPs when they realized the election was happening?

Many MPs were unhappy and shocked. Some were texting the hosts of the podcast, expressing disbelief and concern, calling the decision 'madness'. There was also a sense of sadness as some MPs were saying goodbye to colleagues they've worked with for years, realizing their political careers might be ending abruptly.

How did the hosts of the podcast describe the mood in the Labour party upon the announcement of the election?

The initial mood in the Labour party was a mix of pep and anticipation, with a sense of finally getting what they had been asking for. However, there was also a feeling of shock and the realization that the election campaign will be a challenging period.

What is the significance of the phrase 'who dares wins' mentioned in the transcript?

The phrase 'who dares wins' was used by Michael Gove in cabinet, which is a motto of the SAS. It signifies a bold and daring approach, suggesting that the Prime Minister and his team are ready to take bold steps and are confident in their victory. However, it also carries historical context, as Michael Portillo used the same phrase before losing a leadership election.

What are the challenges that the Labour party faces in the upcoming election campaign?

The Labour party faces the challenge of setting a clear narrative for the election. They need to go beyond just promising change and lay out their vision for the country. Additionally, they must perform well under pressure and scrutiny, as they are expected to win but could face criticism if they do not meet high expectations.

Why was the decision to hold the election in the summer described as 'brave' by some?

The decision to hold the election in the summer is considered brave because it goes against the traditional timing of elections in the fall. Summer elections are less common and could be seen as a bold move to catch the opposition off guard.

What does the term 'candidate's disease' refer to in the context of the election?

The term 'candidate's disease' refers to the feeling of uncertainty and anxiety that every candidate experiences during an election campaign. It's the fear that they might lose, which is particularly strong right after the election is announced but tends to lessen as the campaign progresses.

How did the hosts of the podcast describe the optics of Rishi Sunak's announcement of the election?

The hosts criticized the optics of Rishi Sunak's announcement, pointing out that he was drenched in the rain, which could be seen as a poor visual metaphor. They also mentioned that the setting and the circumstances of the announcement were not well planned and could negatively impact public perception.

What is the significance of the Victims Bill mentioned in the transcript?

The Victims Bill is significant legislation that includes provisions for compensation and is aimed at supporting victims of crime. It has been a focus of substantial work and effort by MPs, and its potential failure to pass could lead to public uproar.

What does the term 'uniform swing' mean in the context of election predictions?

The term 'uniform swing' refers to the idea that if a political party gains support in one area, it will gain support by the same proportion in other areas as well. However, the hosts point out that this is not necessarily the case, as tactical voting and regional differences can lead to varying results.

What is the role of the Prime Minister's campaign team in the election?

The Prime Minister's campaign team is responsible for strategizing and executing the campaign, including messaging, optics, and overall planning. They play a crucial role in managing the Prime Minister's image and ensuring the campaign's success.

What is the process that will take place after the announcement of the election?

After the announcement, Parliament will continue to sit until Friday, and then it will dissolve on the following Thursday. The official election campaign, known as the short campaign, will start on May 31st, when spending rules and other regulations come into effect.

How will the dissolution of Parliament affect MPs and their staff?

After the dissolution, MPs are no longer MPs but become candidates in the election. Their staff can continue to work on casework, and MPs are expected to maintain their duties, including helping constituents with inquiries and issues.

What is the significance of Craig Mackinlay's return to Parliament after his battle with sepsis?

Craig Mackinlay's return to Parliament after losing his hands and feet to sepsis is significant as it highlights his resilience and determination. He aims to raise awareness about sepsis and its preventability, and his case underscores the importance of seeking medical attention promptly for potentially life-threatening conditions.