State of the Automotive Industry Now and Tomorrow
Summary
TLDR在这段访谈中,专家们讨论了新冠疫情对美国汽车工业及其对整体经济影响的当前和未来状况。Tom Vaughn、Laura Baucus和Tim Moraz分别从企业融资、供应链管理和地区经济发展的角度,分享了对汽车行业短期挑战和长期复苏的见解。他们指出,尽管短期内面临困难,但汽车行业对长期增长持乐观态度,并正在重新评估供应链管理,考虑是否需要调整“及时生产”模式。此外,讨论还涉及了并购活动、资本获取以及汽车行业作为美国经济风向标的潜力。
Takeaways
- 🚗 汽车行业对未来的展望是乐观的,尽管短期内面临挑战,但长期预期是积极的。
- 📉 由于COVID-19的影响,预计未来六个月内新供应链订单的比率将下降,但预计在接下来的12到24个月内会有所增加。
- 🔄 汽车行业在疫情期间经历了暂时的关闭,但重启过程比预期的要顺利,84%的企业关闭后能够重新开放并保持运营。
- 🛠️ 汽车行业正在重新评估其供应链管理,特别是对于长供应链和及时生产模式(JIT)的风险和收益。
- 💼 从企业财务的角度来看,汽车行业相对准备好应对当前的风暴,拥有足够的现金储备,但新资金的成本可能会上升。
- 🔎 行业正在密切关注其供应链,以确保其健康和能够承受潜在的关闭。
- 🌐 国际供应链的影响正在被重新评估,考虑到额外成本和风险,汽车制造商可能会考虑缩短供应链。
- 🏭 尽管有讨论关于将生产重新转移回美国,但目前的重点仍然是重启现有的供应链。
- 💡 汽车行业可能会因疫情而永久性地改变,包括对供应链的评估,以及可能的购买习惯的变化。
- 📈 汽车行业的表现通常被视为美国经济的一个风向标,当前的积极展望可能预示着经济的复苏。
- 📊 从并购的角度来看,强大的公司可能会保持观望态度,而那些财务较弱的公司可能会寻求合作伙伴或出售。
Q & A
当前汽车行业面临的主要挑战是什么?
-根据访谈内容,汽车行业目前面临的主要挑战包括短期内供应链订单的下降,以及由于COVID-19疫情导致的生产中断和重启的困难。
汽车行业对接下来六个月的供应链订单有何预期?
-根据调查,45%的汽车行业受访者预计未来六个月供应链订单会有所下降。
汽车行业对长期前景的看法如何?
-尽管短期内面临挑战,但71%的汽车行业受访者预计在24个月内订单率会有所增加,显示出对长期前景的乐观态度。
COVID-19疫情对汽车制造商的运营产生了哪些影响?
-疫情导致84%的汽车行业受访者不得不暂时关闭运营,但重启后,只有20%的受访者表示他们不得不再次关闭。
汽车行业如何评估其供应链的健康状况?
-汽车行业正在重新评估其供应链,特别是长供应链的风险和效益,以及是否需要调整现有的及时生产(JIT)模式。
西密歇根地区的汽车制造业在疫情中表现如何?
-西密歇根地区的汽车制造业显示出强大的恢复能力,许多制造商看到了危机中的机会,尽管面临劳动力和供应链管理的挑战。
汽车行业是否考虑将生产从海外迁回美国?
-目前,汽车行业的主要焦点是重新开放现有的供应链,而不是立即将生产从海外迁回美国。
汽车行业对资本和财务的准备情况如何?
-与10年前的经济衰退相比,汽车行业在财务上更为准备充分,许多供应商在疫情初期就借入了信贷额度,以保持现金流动性。
汽车行业的并购活动在疫情期间有何变化?
-强大的卖家目前持观望态度,而那些财务较弱的公司则在寻找合作伙伴或出售机会,私募股权基金和其他公司正在寻找价值投资的机会。
汽车行业如何看待其在美国经济中的作用?
-汽车行业被视为美国经济的一个风向标,其对经济的乐观态度通常预示着对并购市场的乐观,以及对消费者信心和消费支出的重视。
疫情是否会永久改变汽车制造业?
-疫情可能会导致汽车制造业对长供应链的重新评估,考虑是否将某些生产迁回北美,并更密切地审查供应商的可持续性。
Outlines
🚗 汽车行业现状与未来展望
在这段对话中,主持人与来自不同领域的专家讨论了汽车行业的现状和未来。讨论的焦点是新冠疫情对汽车行业的影响,以及行业对未来的预期。Tom Vaughn介绍了他们对汽车制造商和供应商进行的一项调查,结果显示45%的汽车行业受访者预计未来六个月新订单会下降,但对接下来12到24个月的预期则相对乐观,分别有46%和71%的受访者预计订单会增加。这表明尽管短期内行业面临挑战,但长期来看,行业对复苏持乐观态度。
🔄 汽车行业的供应链与重启挑战
Laura Baukus讨论了汽车行业在疫情期间的供应链问题和重启策略。84%的受访者表示他们的企业不得不暂时关闭。然而,一旦重启,大多数企业能够保持运营,只有20%的企业在重启后再次关闭。这反映了汽车行业在规划和沟通方面的努力,使得重启过程比预期的要顺利。此外,还讨论了汽车行业在不同地区的运营情况,以及如何面对劳动力和供应链管理的挑战。
🌐 国际供应链的依赖与调整
专家们探讨了汽车行业对国际供应链的依赖,以及在疫情背景下可能进行的调整。Laura提到,尽管全球供应链相互关联,但企业正在重新评估长供应链的风险和成本,特别是考虑到未来可能的疫情和相关的额外成本。讨论还涉及了是否有将生产从海外重新转移回美国的动向,但目前,重点仍然是恢复现有的供应链,并确保其顺畅运行。
💼 汽车行业的财务准备与投资展望
Tom Vaughn分享了汽车行业在财务准备方面的情况,以及他们对未来投资的看法。与十年前的大萧条相比,汽车行业在这次疫情中财务准备更为充分,这使得他们能够更好地应对当前的挑战。尽管新资金的成本可能会上升,但企业正在努力利用现有资金,并寻求通过股权融资来加强资产负债表。此外,讨论了汽车行业的并购活动,以及它们如何反映行业的健康状况和对未来的预期。
📊 汽车行业作为美国经济的风向标
在这段对话中,专家们讨论了汽车行业如何作为美国整体经济的一个指标。Tom指出,他们的调查发现,汽车行业的乐观情绪与美国经济的乐观情绪密切相关。当消费者信心和支出上升时,汽车行业的并购市场也会表现出乐观。尽管短期内对经济的看法分歧,但长期来看,汽车行业的受访者对未来24个月的经济持积极态度,这被视为经济复苏的一个积极信号。
🏭 汽车行业对美国经济的长期影响
最后,专家们讨论了汽车行业可能因疫情而发生的变化,以及这些变化对美国经济的长期影响。Laura认为,汽车行业可能会重新评估长供应链,并考虑将生产转移到北美。此外,行业也在考虑消费者购买习惯的变化,以及这些变化如何影响汽车需求。Tim强调了汽车行业对密歇根州经济的重要性,以及它对整个美国经济的影响。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡汽车行业
💡供应链
💡COVID-19大流行
💡经济复苏
💡并购
💡精益制造
💡区域经济
💡供应链管理
💡企业融资
💡消费者信心
Highlights
汽车行业及其对美国整体经济的影响是本次讨论的主题。
Tom Vaughn介绍了汽车制造商和供应商对美国经济和汽车行业的展望。
Laura Baucous讨论了汽车行业团队和供应链团队的领导地位。
调查显示,45%的汽车行业受访者预计未来六个月新供应链订单将下降。
然而,46%的汽车行业受访者预计未来12个月新订单将增加。
71%的汽车行业受访者预计未来24个月将看到订单增加。
汽车行业短期内面临挑战,但长期展望乐观。
Laura Baucous指出,尽管84%的受访者曾暂停运营,但只有20%在重启后再次暂停。
Tim Moraz强调了西密歇根州汽车制造业的强劲复苏。
讨论了汽车行业供应链管理的挑战和机遇。
Tom Vaughn提到,强大的公司在当前危机中选择不出售。
财务较弱的公司正在寻找合作伙伴或出售机会。
Tim Moraz反驳了“锈带”说法,强调西密歇根州制造业的持续增长。
Laura Baucous讨论了国际供应链的复杂性和重新评估的必要性。
Tom Vaughn认为,汽车行业的财务状况比十年前的经济衰退时要好。
讨论了企业融资问题,包括债务和股权。
Tom Vaughn认为,汽车行业的展望对美国经济是一个积极的指标。
Laura Baucous预测,汽车行业可能会因疫情而发生长期变化。
Tim Moraz强调了汽车行业对密歇根州经济的重要性。
Transcripts
[Music]
the current and future health of the
automotive industry and its implications
for the us economy at large
is the topic of my conversation today
let me introduce our panelists who will
be speaking today
we'll be hearing from tom vaughn he is a
member of the corporate finance group
and co-leader of the m
a practice group with dykema tom welcome
great thank you robert glad to be here
and
laura baucus she is a member of the
automotive industry team and a leader in
the supply chain group of diecoma
hello laura hi robert thanks for having
me
and tim moraz he is vice president of
the right place
hi tim hi thanks for the invite to be
part of this today
so that's our panel for today let me
start by directing a question to tom
and that is a general question that
speaks to the key
findings of a survey that you folks did
you were analyzing
automaker and supplier perspectives on
the u.s economy
and the auto industry in the midst of
the covet 19 pandemic
what are some of the key findings of
that survey that relate to the current
and future health of the automotive
industry
okay yeah that's that's great and just a
little bit by way of background
um we also did an m a survey at above
the same time
as we did the auto survey and so we're
going to do some comparisons to that
survey during the discussion today great
and then we also took our survey the
auto survey
and we broke our respondents into two
groups we have all respondents
and then we also took the respondents
from companies
that are really involved in the auto
industry manufacturers suppliers
um those type of companies and have auto
only
responses as opposed to responses from
people like me who are professionals who
practice
in the industry so sometimes you're
going to hear us talk about the auto
respondents and what their views were
with respect to it because they differed
in some of the areas from the views of
all of the respondents so great so
there's a number of ways to slice and
dice it then for sure
so there's a number of ways to slice and
dice and it always makes the information
uh very very interesting in this process
okay tom well let's sum up for me just
some of the high points of that survey
what did you learn from from this yeah
so one of the questions we asked our
respondents were
about the rate of new supply chain
orders in the automotive business
uh as impacted by covet 19. and so we
asked responders
what they saw in terms of the rate of
new orders in the next six months
um and that was uh pretty much with the
autoresponders
45 of the auto responders expected a
decline
by over the course of the next six
months uh whereas about 38
over all of our respondents felt like
there would be a decline now when again
were they being when were they being
surveyed
exactly uh so what what would be the
rate of new supply chain orders over the
next six months
starting at what point though i mean
when were they
at july 1st july 1st okay so essentially
the rest of this year
rest of this calendar okay go ahead i'm
sorry i just wanted to make sure we knew
what we're talking about about the next
six months but
so 45 of the auto responders expected a
decline
when we asked the question about the
next 12 months
that shifted with 46 of the auto
respondents
expecting an increase in the rate of new
orders you know compared to the prior
uh 12-month period and when we jumped
out looking out 24 months uh the auto
respondents
71 of them expected to see an increase
so what we took away from this in
looking at the survey results
was really a view that in the short term
the auto industry and the suppliers
need to get through the short term here
it's going to be a tough
next six to 12 months but if they can
get through to the other end
the expectation is uh you know the
industry is going to be back
and and chugging along yeah
all the industries materials we see
i think everybody expects the next
couple years to be slower growth than we
have seen in the past
but still hopefully some growth and i
think our respondents felt the same way
interesting that such a one of our
largest most vibrant industries has such
a sense of essentially a sense of
optimism
uh compared with what some people are
saying thinking that some economists
saying it may take five years for our
economy to recover and here's a
automotive industry telling us that they
may at least start that a lot earlier
however
there are shorter term implications and
a number of these automakers have
suspended operations have they not laura
initially and and what what's going on
there and with regard to reopening
remember back in march the auto industry
abruptly had to shut down you know this
is something
never seen before in the industry those
of us who work with the industry from
the legal perspective which i do on the
supply chain
understand and appreciate that the
shutting down of any supplier from you
know a tier three
all the way up to the oem is a big deal
so when everything shut down
it was a game changer but what happened
was that
you know it first of all you can see
from our results you know 84
almost everybody had to shut down it was
almost everyone in the industry but what
happened after that
is that the industry continued to work
together and have
you know a great amount of free flow
communication during the months you know
march
april may and they had to each state had
differing orders on who could be an
essential worker
who could be open and not be open then
of course this is a global supply chain
you've got
mexico which had its own orders and then
you've got a long supply chain for
reaching out to asia what that resulted
in is that the reopening
actually went much smoother than perhaps
people had anticipated
and that's really to the testament of
the planning in the auto industry
um so while 84 of our respondents auto
respondents said they had to shut down
in the pandemic
only 20 responded that after they
reopened they had to shut down again
and that's an impressive number so once
they opened they stayed open
basically are good for the most part
there are some widely publicized
incidents where there may have been
you know a case of so if someone tested
positive they shut down for cleaning but
for the most part
it has gone quite smoothly you make a
good point laura that we should probably
not be thinking of this
automotive industry that we're calling
as a monolithic thing where everybody is
in lockstep and doing exactly the same
thing regardless of where they are
tim i'm wondering uh there in west
michigan uh that you specialize in you
promote west michigan
um how has that reflected specifically
in your area what were you seeing in
terms of auto manufacturing there
you know one of the one of the things
that we're really proud of here in west
michigan i would even say in the state
is
the latest numbers we've been seeing
coming out from the state of michigan is
that
the state as a whole in terms of the
automotive industry it has been has been
able to come back pretty strong
um you know the the the automotive
manufacturers that we're meeting with
here in the region
you know i think i think many of them
are seeing opportunity in the chaos
um but really the two big hurdles
for our employers coming out of this are
one are dealing with
with workforce issues um and two dealing
with with continued supply chain
management issues um
you know i think this is you know to
lowest point i think a lot of this
the the shutdown and the global supply
chain has really redefined
the word redundancy when it comes to
supply chain management um
and a lot of our companies having to
deal with that you know just because
my my supply chain manufacturers open in
west michigan
doesn't mean that my supplier in arizona
is open and
to be able to get parts for production
um on the other side of that you know
with workforce issues
um you know we we had workforce issues
going into this you know
you know into the covid crisis um coming
out of it it's going to make it you know
just that much harder
very interesting point you make about
supply there of course you know the
automotive industry was one of the
pioneers of the
just in time supply model where you keep
very little inventory you rush stuff to
the production
line the moment you need it you don't
have a lot of extra stuff sitting around
now
a lot of companies are saying we need
some buffer stock we need to
if not scrap the jit concept at least
revise it
laura that's a supply chain story right
there are you seeing some modification
of the just-in-time
theory of production well at this point
we're not seeing
a wholesale modification of the
just-in-time it's worked
remarkably well in lean manufacturing
for decades but what we are seeing is
some re-evaluation
of long supply chains meaning your
suppliers in china
and with possible pandemics in the
future
with differing times where companies
might shut down and
an ability to get stock and parts are
timely
just a reevaluation of risk and benefit
is the money that you might potentially
save
worth the risk and not being able to get
the parts
in time uh yeah
tom i'd like to talk to you for a moment
about the m a thing i i know
maybe we're going to save that for the
end but i'm also wondering in terms of
short term
is it too early to already start to see
patterns of mergers and acquisitions are
are companies moving that quickly in
response to the situation or are they
kind of holding their fire and thinking
of m
a as more of a long-term strategy in
response to what's going on
so i've answered that question in two
ways first off from a seller's
perspective i think we're seeing a
little bit of dichotomy here
any seller who believes that they've got
a strong company
and that they can make it through the
current covid crisis
is sitting on the sidelines they're not
going to put the company out there
because valuations are down i mean all
of the statistics and
our respondents show that valuations are
down
by at least 20 and that's very
consistent with statistics i'm seeing
so strong sellers are staying on the
sidelines but
we are also seeing m a activity and
including the auto industry of people
that were not as financially strong
people
that have some financial weakness are
going out and looking for partners
or are looking for an opportunity uh to
store up their financial
you know where with all um that
perspective
i think there are some good buying
opportunities out there and we're seeing
you know pe funds and other companies
get into the market
uh looking for opportunities to pick up
on good values you know at this uh at
this point in time
yeah tim i want to get back to you just
for a moment about the regional aspect
of it uh
because i'm sure you hate this phrase
that you've had to bear for decades the
rust belt referring to the industrial
northeast and supposedly everything has
moved to the south
south east southwest i'm sure you would
counter that argument as a promoter of
west michigan but do you in fact see
different patterns shifting patterns
within the united states and i'll talk
about international moment
but in terms of where cars and trucks
are being produced right now
in the u.s do we see shifting patterns
regionally
you know i can only speak like you said
for west michigan and you know one of
the things that you know i'm proud to
say is
in terms of our projects you know
through the right place we we have
continued to set five record years
of economic growth here much of it much
of which
has been in the manufacturing sector so
for you know for all those
folks that you know one to your point
have said you know the
the midwest is dead you know
manufacturing is dead
you know we need to move to the coast
and we need to move south
um we have we have countless projects
that prove otherwise
so the economy in west michigan
continues to remain strong
um you know one of the great things we
have going for us in west michigan is we
are a diverse economy so many of our
automotive suppliers
also are suppliers to other industries
as well um so you have that
diversification mix that you don't have
in other communities
laura could you talk about some of the
international supply chain
implications i know that a lot of tier
one
suppliers and the like surround the oems
within this country but i'm wondering to
what extent have
u.s automakers or automakers making
autos in the u.s to what extent have
they had to depend
on long supply lines for parts to what
extent had they had to depend on china
and other and other countries like that
and is that changing now
with the realization that there's so
much more risk attending that type of a
strategy
so of course data chain is interrelated
globally
every single oem every single tier one
has long supply chains
whether you know mexico which would be
the shortest all the way to asia
throughout europe
and that's being reevaluated to the
extent that you there are additional
costs that weren't there before
that you're having the cost for your
facility with the additional ppe
but now if uh some there's a
small pandemic in another foreign
country
that might shut down then when it
finally reopens you're going to have
expedited freight and other costs
that you just didn't have before so
that's why it's being relooked at
and to the same extent in the
international and the u.s supply chain
you know we see the oems and the tier
ones looking very much
after supply chains to make sure they're
healthy you know the visibility's always
been there but they're dramatically
at this point uh making sure they're on
top of
everything because anyone in the supply
chain goes down it's going you know it's
going to impact the smooth reopening
that we've had
are we seeing any kind of a move to
reshoring of anything that was produced
overseas that is now coming back to the
united states and being manufactured
here
or do those are those patterns pretty
much the same as far as you can see for
now
from what i can see and again it's the
legal perspective so we might get it at
the back end
uh it's much too soon at this point the
focus is
reopening the supply chains that exist
and with the automotive industry
you know every single part down to the
smallest widget has to go through
extensive
testing um particularly safety parts and
that's where the focus is reopening the
supply chain and now that's opening
making sure that it's running smoothly
yeah
yeah and and i just support laura on
that one i think
every supplier in oem is you know
constantly evaluating and reevaluating
their supply chain and they certainly
are doing that right now but the way
that the auto industry works
nothing can be done that quickly um so
the changes
if they're going to come are going to
come in the future not here in the short
term would be my perspective
yeah tom i want to speak to your
expertise in corporate finance too
because there has been a lot of concern
even before the pandemic about
access to capital and finance problems
and well
we had low interest rates which is great
but everything else has been difficult
in terms of worry about corporate debt
and the like
how is the automotive industry
approaching the corporate finance
question right now are they a little bit
nervous about what's going on and do
they have the funds in the working
capital to move forward with
the types of investments they need to
make
yeah a couple different things the one
thing is that the auto industry was in a
completely different
mode today than they were back in the
big recession
from 10 years ago there they were not
financially prepared for a downturn
they were this time they were expecting
a downturn to some extent
not quite as extensive as we had but
they were prepared for it so most auto
suppliers
and the oems financially were well
prepared for this
and well prepared to weather the current
storm
and and i think we've seen that with
their uh you know
limited layoffs and ability to really
maintain operations and activities
and of course a lot of suppliers
borrowed down on their lines of credit
uh you know just in at the start of the
pandemic
so most people are sitting there with
pretty good cash um
i don't think anybody is out right i
shouldn't say out not looking for new
money but i think everybody knows
new money coming today is going to be
expensive so trying to live off of what
they have
is where they're at but we also know
there's lots of activity
out there lots of pipes being done where
people are bringing in
um some equity to shore up the balance
sheet uh you know a little bit at this
point in time
i think lenders are still being pretty
cautious so probably the the debt
market's a little bit tougher
um than it has been uh with the equity
market maybe a little bit
uh more of a safety net for people okay
so let's broaden this discussion to talk
about what had the extent to which what
you've learned what we've all learned
about the automotive industry is a
bellwether
for the u.s economy as a whole let me
just go to you first tom and say
based on your research is this in fact a
good indication of how the larger
economy
is doing in terms of optimism pessimism
future
investments and the like should we take
that as an example
yeah it's a very interesting we've done
the m a survey for 16 years
and the one thing that we have found is
uh m a and the u.s economy
move very much hand in hand so optimism
on the economy
turns out to be optimism for the m a
market
and we have also found we did a survey
last year uh found that one of the
that our survey respondents believe that
probably the leading economic indicator
is consumer confidence and consumer
spending so when we see positive outlook
in our surveys
uh from our respondents we think that's
a good sign for the the future
and so we did ask our respondents about
the next 12 months
will the economy have a positive neutral
or negative compared
to where we're at today and it was about
evenly split over the next 12 months
uh interestingly though when we went out
to 24 months
um that changed pretty dramatically with
46 percent
of the auto respondents having a
positive outlook
and 76 of the m a respondents
having a positive outlook which was
really pretty bullish 24 months out
so i would say that the outlook released
from our survey
on a longer term basis is is a very
positive outlook and a
positive for the recovery great and and
laura let me just ask you if the extent
to which you think the auto
manufacturing industry might be
transformed
permanently as a result of the pandemic
as opposed to just
actions that are taken right now in
order to survive with this current
situation
i think you touched on some of the
things earlier in your questions
you know there there will be an
evaluation of long supply chains
whether it makes sense to bring things
onshore at least back into north america
to some extent
there's going to be you know looking
very closely at
suppliers to ensure that they are
viable and can be viable and can
withstand a shutdown for three months
which is not something that had to be
looked at before
another question in our minds and this
is for the future is
will buying habits change and how will
they change
to the extent people are working
remotely maybe families will only need
one car
um or two instead of several you know
these are some of the questions we don't
know but
people are certainly looking at them and
tim let me just get a quick comment from
you to uh
to wrap up optimism in the in the upper
midwest west michigan
the uh heart of the traditional
automotive industry in america i mean do
you
get a feeling that they feel the same
way as you know tom and
laura talking about yeah you know i
think one of the things that we taught
you know the three of us talked about
you know previously was that the idea
that you know as goes the auto industry
so goes michigan
um you know i i think folks don't
realize the amount
of industry that is attached even
indirectly to the automotive industry
you know us in economic development
you know we look at things like job
multipliers and
you know the job multi the job
multiplier in the automotive industry is
you know four
to six sometimes even you know 8x and so
you know
even though you're you may be thinking
about automotive direct
jobs um you know you need to talk about
you know other industries that are
supportive of of the auto industry and
how much
of our overall economy is supported by
the auto industry
um and so seeing these numbers come back
that we saw in the survey that there is
a long-term optimism you know i think is
reassuring
some really interesting insights into
the state of the automotive industry and
its implications for the us economy at
large
tom vaughn of dykema laura bacchus of
daikoma
tim moraz of the right place thanks to
all of you for participating today i
really appreciate your time thanks a lot
thank you thanks for having us thanks
robert enjoyed it
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