THIS IS A BIG DEAL.

Summary

In this video, Rudy of Alpha Investments discusses the surprising changes in the Magic: The Gathering market, particularly around older sets from the 'Bronze Age' era (2011-2019). He delves into the impact of the Kaladesh banning and the sudden rise in prices for previously overlooked sealed product. Rudy speculates that a hidden entity may be buying up large quantities of these sets, reducing supply and creating upward price pressure. While he hesitates to confirm this as the market bottom, Rudy warns that this could signal a major shift in the market, potentially leading to one of the biggest bull runs in Magic's history.

Takeaways

• 😀 A significant market shift is occurring in Magic: The Gathering's 'bronze era' (2011-2019) sealed product market.
• 😀 The recent banning of Kaladesh has led to a surge in demand for its sealed boxes, with prices rising from a few hundred to nearly $900.
• 😀 Rudy speculates that a large group or individual may be purchasing older Magic products, causing the supply of certain sets to dwindle dramatically.
• 😀 Over the past 30 days, the supply of bronze era MTG boxes has decreased by 30-80%, a pattern Rudy has never seen before in his extensive market tracking.
• 😀 This reduction in supply could be a signal that a buyout of certain MTG products is underway, with purchases happening privately outside of public marketplaces like TCGPlayer and eBay.
• 😀 Rudy predicts that if these trends continue, it could trigger one of the largest bull markets for bronze era MTG products in history.
• 😀 The bronze era of Magic, often seen as 'dead money', is now showing signs of life, with previously undervalued sets potentially seeing a major price increase.
• 😀 Rudy emphasizes that the market is still too volatile to definitively declare that this is the end of the bear market for bronze era Magic products.
• 😀 There are rumors of major purchases, with some stores reporting that large quantities of Kaladesh and other bronze era boxes were bought before the news broke.
• 😀 Rudy's analysis is based on recent trends, and while he's cautious about making a definitive call, the data points suggest a significant shift in the MTG market.

Q & A

What is the 'Bronze Era' of Magic: The Gathering and why is it significant?

The 'Bronze Era' refers to the period in Magic: The Gathering from 2011 to 2019, which is characterized by higher print runs, less focus on high-end collectibles, and products that have historically underperformed in value. It's significant because it marks a time when Magic products were generally considered lower-tier investments, but now may be seeing unexpected price movements and supply shortages.

How did the Kaladesh ban affect the Magic market?

The Kaladesh ban led to an unexpected surge in the value of sealed Kaladesh boxes. Previously valued at a few hundred dollars, these boxes jumped to prices as high as $800-$900. The ban acted as a catalyst, sparking renewed interest and speculation about the broader Magic market, particularly products from the Bronze Era.

What is Rudy's opinion on whether the Bronze Era market has reached its bottom?

Rudy is cautious and doesn't believe it's time to officially declare the bottom of the Bronze Era market yet. While there are early signs of a market shift, including reduced supply and price increases, he believes more time is needed to gather enough data to confirm whether this is the true market bottom or just a temporary anomaly.

Why does Rudy think there could be a large-scale buyout of Bronze Era products happening?

Rudy suspects that a group or individual is strategically buying up large quantities of Bronze Era Magic products. He bases this theory on the sudden and significant reductions in available stock, which are not reflected in public sales data on platforms like TCGPlayer or eBay. This could be setting the stage for a massive price surge.

What evidence does Rudy have of supply reductions in Bronze Era Magic products?

Rudy notes that in the past 30 days, supply of sealed English booster boxes from the Bronze Era has dropped by 30% to 80%. He recommends checking listings on TCGPlayer to observe the disappearance of certain sets and the rise in prices, which could indicate a tightening of supply and increased demand.

What does Rudy mean by 'textbook definition of a bear market bottom'?

Rudy refers to the phase where markets begin to turn around after a prolonged downturn. This typically starts with disbelief and skepticism, with people still holding onto their belief that prices will fall further. As the market turns, some individuals may panic sell, while others buy up undervalued assets. This behavior often signals the end of a bear market and the start of a new bull market.

How did Rudy react to the general attitude towards sealed Magic products from the Bronze Era?

Rudy acknowledges that the general consensus among collectors and stores was that sealed Magic products from the Bronze Era were not worth holding onto. Many had written off these products as a waste of time and money. This widespread pessimism, however, may have created the conditions for a potential market reversal.

What is Rudy’s theory about the timing of the market changes related to Kaladesh?

Rudy speculates that the timing of the Kaladesh ban might not be a coincidence. He suggests that someone or a group might have been preparing for a market shift, buying up sealed product before the news broke. He is uncertain whether the timing is purely coincidental or if there was a more deliberate plan in motion.

What role does public data play in understanding these market shifts?

Public data, such as sales and listings on platforms like TCGPlayer and eBay, is crucial for tracking trends in the Magic market. Rudy highlights the lack of sales transactions for certain Bronze Era products on these platforms, which indicates that products are being pulled off the market in private deals. This lack of public data is fueling his suspicion of a market manipulation or buyout.

Why does Rudy think the upcoming period could lead to a massive repricing of Magic products?

Rudy believes that with the significant supply reductions, the general pessimism surrounding older Magic products, and the potential buyouts taking place, there is a strong possibility of a massive upward price adjustment in the near future. If these trends continue, it could lead to one of the largest bull markets in Bronze Era Magic products in modern history.