CARA NGITUNG NILAI SAHAM | #GhibahinSaham eps 4

Summary

In this video, the speaker explains stock valuation methods, focusing on banks like BCA, BRI, Mandiri, and BNI. The video compares absolute valuation (like Discounted Cash Flow and Dividend Discount Models) with relative valuation, emphasizing the PBV (Price to Book Value) ratio. Using real-life examples, the speaker shows how to calculate PBV and evaluate stocks, demonstrating that stock prices reflect market sentiment rather than just profit. By understanding PBV, viewers can make more informed decisions about stock valuation in the banking sector, using tools like RTI Business and Stock Bit apps.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video explains the concept of stock analysis, particularly focusing on Indonesian banking stocks and the valuation process.
• 😀 The speaker separates the content into three parts to provide a more digestible learning experience, as mastering stock valuation is a long-term process.
• 😀 The speaker emphasizes the importance of using tools like RTI Business and Stock Bit apps for stock analysis and comparison.
• 😀 In the previous part of the video, it was established that BCA is the largest company in terms of market capitalization, but not the highest in net income.
• 😀 Net income of BRI is higher than BCA's (34 trillion vs 28 trillion IDR), indicating that market capitalization is not always tied to profit.
• 😀 The video introduces two main methods of valuing a stock: absolute valuation (like DCF and DDM) and relative valuation (like PBV and PE ratios).
• 😀 Absolute valuation methods, such as DCF and DDM, are not always practical for retail investors due to their long-term forecasting and complexity.
• 😀 The relative valuation method, particularly the Price to Book Value (PBV) ratio, is more practical for banking stocks since they emphasize assets and liabilities.
• 😀 BCA's PBV ratio is 4, meaning its stock is valued at four times its book value, indicating that it's more expensive compared to other banks like BRI, Mandiri, and BNI.
• 😀 The speaker demonstrates how to calculate the value of a stock using the PBV ratio by multiplying the book value by the PBV multiple, showing how to assess whether a stock is overpriced or underpriced.
• 😀 The PBV standard deviation chart from Stock Bit app shows that BCA's current PBV is above the 10-year average, suggesting that its stock may be overvalued at present.
• 😀 The final takeaway is that stock valuation is subjective, and the market will ultimately decide the true value of a stock based on various factors, including investor sentiment and broader economic conditions.

Q & A

Why is BCA considered the largest company by market value, even though it doesn't have the highest profit?

BCA has the largest market value because its stock price is valued higher relative to its book value and earnings, while its profit, though significant, is not the highest among the banks. The stock market values BCA based on its future growth prospects, perceived stability, and other market factors, not just profit.

What is the difference between intrinsic value and relative valuation in stock analysis?

Intrinsic value is calculated based on a company's cash flow, earnings, or dividends, and requires forecasting these metrics for 5-10 years. Relative valuation, on the other hand, compares a company's financial ratios (like PE or PBV) with those of similar companies, offering a more practical and simpler method of valuation.

What is the Price-to-Book (PBV) ratio and why is it important for banking stocks?

The Price-to-Book Value (PBV) ratio compares a bank’s stock price to its book value. It is important for banking stocks because banks are asset-driven businesses, and the PBV ratio provides a measure of how much investors are willing to pay for each unit of the bank’s assets. A higher PBV indicates higher valuation by the market.

How do you calculate the PBV ratio for a stock like BCA?

To calculate the PBV ratio for a stock like BCA, you divide the current stock price by the book value per share. For example, if BCA’s stock price is IDR 31,000 and its book value per share is IDR 6,961, the PBV ratio is 4.45.

What is the significance of a PBV ratio being above or below its historical average?

If a PBV ratio is above its historical average, like BCA’s current PBV of 4.45 compared to the 10-year average of 4.3, it suggests that the stock is potentially overvalued. Conversely, if the PBV is below the historical average, the stock might be undervalued.

What is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and how does it relate to stock valuation?

The DCF method values a stock based on the present value of its expected future cash flows. It is useful for companies with stable cash flows and earnings, like banks. By predicting future cash flows and discounting them to the present, you can estimate a stock's intrinsic value.

What is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), and how is it different from the DCF?

The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is similar to the DCF but specifically focuses on dividends rather than cash flows. It is used when a company’s dividend payments are stable and predictable, and it discounts these future dividends to the present to calculate the stock's value.

Why might someone prefer relative valuation over intrinsic valuation methods?

Relative valuation, such as using the PBV ratio, is often preferred because it is simpler, quicker, and more practical, especially for retail investors or those who lack the resources to forecast long-term cash flows or dividends. It also provides a quick comparison to other similar companies.

What is the significance of BCA’s current PBV being higher than the average over the last 10 years?

BCA’s current PBV of 4.45 is higher than its 10-year average of 4.3, indicating that the stock is currently priced at a premium compared to its historical valuation. This could mean investors are optimistic about the bank's future prospects, but it may also suggest the stock is overvalued.

How do you calculate the price of a stock based on its PBV and book value?

To calculate the stock price based on its PBV and book value, you multiply the PBV ratio by the book value per share. For instance, if the PBV ratio is 4.3 and the book value per share is IDR 6,961, the calculated price per share would be IDR 29,900.