THE 4 BULL RUN CRYPTO CATALYSTS: M2, PRESIDENCY, 13F & RE-ALLOCATION.
Summary
TLDRThe live stream discusses four catalysts that could potentially lead to the next Bitcoin Bull Run, as inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph. The speaker is skeptical about technical analysis (TA) and price predictions but delves into historical patterns that Bitcoin is said to be repeating from 2016. The first catalyst is the involvement of major institutions, evidenced by recent 13F filings showing significant investments in Bitcoin ETFs. The second is the M2 money supply, which historically correlates with the rise in Bitcoin's price. The third is the impact of the U.S. presidential election on market uncertainty and subsequent resolution. Lastly, the speaker highlights the potential for reallocation of funds from traditional investments like gold and real estate to cryptocurrency. The video also touches on the recent positive net inflows into ETFs and the activity of dormant Bitcoin wallets, suggesting a possible trend of smart money moving into the cryptocurrency space.
Takeaways
- 📈 The speaker discusses four catalysts they believe could lead to the next bull run for Bitcoin, inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph.
- 💬 The speaker is skeptical about technical analysis (TA) and price predictions, considering them to be of little value.
- ⚖️ Bitcoin's price history is compared to its performance in 2016, suggesting a pattern that might repeat with a significant price spike following a reaccumulation period.
- 💵 Major institutions are increasingly investing in Bitcoin, as evidenced by recent 13F filings, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment.
- 📊 The M2 money supply has historically influenced asset prices, including Bitcoin, and the current supply situation is being watched as a potential catalyst.
- 🤝 The outcome of the presidential election is seen as a potential market influence, with different implications depending on who is elected.
- 💼 The speaker suggests that reallocating funds from traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate to cryptocurrency could provide a significant boost to the crypto market.
- 🌐 Global wealth and derivatives markets are vast, and even a small reallocation of funds towards cryptocurrency could have a substantial impact.
- 📉 Despite recent inflows to ETFs, the speaker notes that the amounts are relatively small and that the overall trend had been negative prior to the most recent positive shift.
- 🐋 On-chain analysis, such as that provided by Lookonchain, can offer insights into the behavior of large Bitcoin holders, which can be informative for market participants.
- 🎉 The speaker will be attending the Consensus conference in Austin, providing an opportunity for networking and potentially meeting viewers.
Q & A
What is the speaker's opinion on technical analysis (TA) and price predictions?
-The speaker believes that technical analysis has its place but is not a fan of price predictions, considering them to be worthless.
According to the speaker, what is the significance of the article from Coin Telegraph?
-The article from Coin Telegraph is significant because it discusses how Bitcoin is repeating its 2016 history and presents a price prediction, which the speaker dismisses but uses as a starting point to discuss potential market catalysts.
What is the first catalyst for the next Bull Run mentioned by the speaker?
-The first catalyst mentioned is the involvement of major institutions, such as Black Rock, and the 13F filings that reveal significant stakes in ETFs related to Bitcoin.
What does the speaker think about the role of the M2 money supply in the Bitcoin market?
-The speaker believes that the M2 money supply plays a crucial role in the Bitcoin market, with an increase in money supply often correlating with an increase in Bitcoin's price.
What is the speaker's view on the impact of the presidential election on the market?
-The speaker suggests that markets typically dislike uncertainty associated with elections but once the election is over, regardless of the outcome, the market tends to stabilize and move forward.
What is the fourth catalyst mentioned by the speaker?
-The fourth catalyst is the reallocation of funds from traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate to the cryptocurrency market.
Why does the speaker find it interesting that major institutions are investing in Bitcoin ETFs?
-The speaker finds it interesting because it indicates a growing acceptance and legitimacy of Bitcoin as an investment vehicle, which could potentially lead to increased market activity and growth.
What is the significance of the 13F filings in the context of the speaker's discussion?
-The 13F filings are significant because they are a legal requirement for institutions to disclose their equity holdings, providing transparency into major investments, including those in Bitcoin-related ETFs.
How does the speaker feel about the recent movement of dormant Bitcoin wallets?
-The speaker finds it intriguing and noteworthy, as it could indicate a shift in sentiment or strategy among long-term Bitcoin holders.
What is the speaker's perspective on the current state of ETFs in relation to Bitcoin?
-The speaker is optimistic about the return of net inflows to ETFs after a period of outflows, suggesting that this could be a positive sign for the Bitcoin market.
What does the speaker suggest for individuals interested in following the strategies of large Bitcoin investors?
-The speaker suggests following resources like 'Look on Chain' and 'Smart Money Crypto', which track and analyze the activities of large Bitcoin wallets to potentially copy their trading strategies.
Outlines
📈 Catalysts for the Next Bull Run in Bitcoin
The speaker discusses four catalysts that could potentially lead to the next bull run in Bitcoin, as inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph. The focus is on how Bitcoin's current trajectory is reminiscent of its 2016 history, with a particular emphasis on institutional investments, ETFs, and 13F filings. The speaker dismisses price predictions as worthless but finds value in technical analysis. The discussion also touches on Bitcoin's price movements following halving events and the potential for a significant rally similar to the one that occurred in 2016.
💼 Institutional Investment and its Impact on Bitcoin
This paragraph delves into the role of institutional investment in Bitcoin, highlighting the recent 13F filings that reveal major institutions have taken significant stakes in Bitcoin ETFs. The speaker mentions specific investments by Symmetry Investments, Rubric Capital, and Bracebridge Capital, emphasizing the strategic use of options for downside protection while positioning for potential rallies. The summary also notes BlackRock's comparatively smaller stake in its own ETF and invites viewers to share their thoughts on this development.
💵 M2 Money Supply, Elections, and Reallocation as Market Catalysts
The speaker outlines additional catalysts that could influence the market, including changes in the M2 money supply, the outcomes of presidential elections, and the potential for reallocation of funds from other investment classes into crypto. The discussion covers the historical correlation between the money supply and the performance of the S&P 500, the uncertainty surrounding elections, and the possibility of significant reallocation from gold, traditional equities, and real estate into the crypto market. The speaker also addresses the recent inflows into ETFs and the competitive dynamics between Grayscale and BlackRock in terms of Bitcoin holdings.
🐋 Tracking Whale Wallets for Investment Insights
In the final paragraph, the speaker discusses the strategy of tracking whale wallets to gain insights into market movements. They reference the account 'Lookonchain' on Twitter, which specializes in on-chain analysis of large Bitcoin transactions. The summary highlights the recent activity of two dormant wallets that transferred out a significant amount of Bitcoin, reflecting the potential influence of such transactions on market sentiment. The speaker also mentions the importance of identifying and following smart money moves in the crypto space and teases an upcoming appearance at the Consensus conference in Austin.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bull Run
💡Catalyst
💡Technical Analysis (TA)
💡Bitcoin
💡Price Prediction
💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)
💡13F Filing
💡M2 Money Supply
💡Presidential Election
💡Reallocation
💡On-Chain Analysis
Highlights
Discussion on four catalysts to the next Bull Run in the cryptocurrency market, inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph.
Critique of technical analysis (TA) and price prediction methods, with a focus on historical patterns instead.
Wick Capital's analysis suggesting Bitcoin is repeating its 2016 history, with a significant price prediction mentioned.
The importance of institutional investments in Bitcoin, with references to major institutions and their 13F filings.
Details on Bracebridge Capital's significant investment in Bitcoin and their complex options strategy.
The correlation between the M2 money supply and Bitcoin's price, with insights on liquidity effects.
The impact of the 2020 Coronavirus recession on Bitcoin's price and the subsequent market rebound.
Discussion on the upcoming U.S. presidential election and its potential effects on market uncertainty and cryptocurrency.
The potential for reallocation of funds from traditional investments like gold and real estate to cryptocurrency.
Analysis of the cryptocurrency market cap in comparison to global wealth and the potential for significant reallocation.
Positive news on ETFs returning to net inflows after a period of outflows.
On-chain analysis by Look on Chain, tracking whale wallets and their trading patterns for potential investment insights.
Two dormant Bitcoin wallets, inactive for almost 11 years, suddenly transferring out 1,000 Bitcoins.
The strategy of copying trades from identified 'smart money' wallet addresses for potential gains.
Upcoming attendance at the Consensus conference in Austin, Texas, for networking and meeting with venture capitalists.
Emphasis on the time sensitivity of the discussed topics and the importance of staying informed in the rapidly changing crypto market.
Transcripts
hello everybody Welcome to the MonDay
live stream and uh just like we were
talking about I believe that there are
catalysts to the next Bull Run and
specifically there's four catalysts and
this is what I'm talking about and
actually this was all spurned on by an
article uh this was from coin Telegraph
and it talks about how wck Capital they
had put together some uh some nice ta
some nice graphs and they talk about how
this Bitcoin is repeating 2016 history
perfectly and then there a 350,000 price
prediction first of all these are two of
my most um non-satisfactory types of uh
presentations I like to give first of
all anything with ta and second of all
anything with the price prediction I
think I think the price predictions are
worthless the TA does have its place in
it but this is what we have I'm going to
totally skip the price prediction
because again those are worthless and
let's just go into this this was pretty
good Rec Capital said hey Bitcoin has
repeated a 2016 history perfectly
offering a downside Wick below the
bottom of its current reaccumulation
range within a three-week window after
the having and this was you know looking
back at 2016 now the previous having
that we had was around May 11th May 12th
2020 correct me in the comment section
of course we just had one on April 20th
2024 and of course we know that after
that around that having time we were in
the 70 around 70k and of course now
we're coming down to the 62 60k level
and it's been a dip just like it was in
2016 but then it re fired up moving
forward and that got me thinking about
well essentially where we're going and
it says here re highlight re highlighted
Bitcoin is currently in the last prehab
retrace which was a 40% a 48% Spike just
six months later on December 30th to
$973 which was pretty good so again it
got me thinking about well if that was
2016 what this reminded me of was either
doesn't really matter about the Bitcoin
having but it was what happens after the
having there's always a catalyst
and when I took a look and I remember
this this is the same type of thing that
we also saw in 2020 so again we had a
Bitcoin having somewhere around May 12th
right around
$9,800 and it kind of it took a little
bit of a dip but then it just kind of
went sideways for a bit which I really
don't care about this is the time I
think to re to start to accumulate again
if you haven't done so already if you
got kind of shook out people talking
about hey this is not going to go
bitcoin's going to zero sure but as we
can see here in 2020 what happened
happened well there was some catalysts
and it's the same Catalyst again what
happened in 2020 well we had the Corona
virus right and then things shut down
and we had the M2 money supply uh get
get reignited with quantitative easing
we had a presidential election and we
had a reallocation of funds but there's
something one thing that's different
from back then well we can see that in
September everything was going good and
then November of course October November
December and we hit alltime highs going
into
2021 and I kind of feel like that's what
we could be doing today because of these
four catalysts and this is what I really
comes down to so first of all this was
the one Catalyst we didn't have back
then and back then we didn't have major
institutions coming in sure we had Elon
Musk come out and say hey we're gonna
allow you to buy our Teslas uh using
Bitcoin and they Al actually also put
Bitcoin on their on their balance sheet
which was great and a nice piece but we
didn't have these ET ETFs this this ETF
we didn't have the institutions coming
in and we didn't have what's called a
13f filing which is being broadcast
today and actually the U the deadline is
May 15 so this is what what's going on
major institutions reveal significant
stakes in Black Rock uh the ETF ahead of
the 13th following date here's what it
is according to the latest 13 half
filings of course they ALS have they all
have to do that with the SEC and the
IRS symmetry Investments has a 61.5
million holding all right that's nice
rubric Capital 69.7 million and
Bracebridge Capital now the largest ibid
holder which I had no idea who these
people were with over a 100 million
invested in shares I had to take a look
at them like well who is Bracebridge
Capital apparently is a hedge fund low
Canada Boston and they have as far as
asset CER management 12 billion doar so
if they're putting a $100 million in
that's a pretty big piece but just wait
they like to play play the risk game and
they like to play it well so brace
Bridge's position is offset by a complex
set of options valuated over 270 million
for the SEC feling a mix of calls and
puts were plac creating a complex delta
neutral combo that combines elements of
a strangle and a straddle with a bullish
bias it will profit
mostly if ibit stages a large rally I.E
if the price of Bitcoin goes up and the
ETFs of course go up but the long puts
provide some downside protection I got I
have no problem with that that's a
pretty smart thing to do and I thought
was interesting also about this this
whole piece here was that black rock
followed at 13 F and revealed it only
had a 6.6 million
stake in its own ETF so kind of
interesting let me know what you think
about that in in the comment section so
that was one of the catalysts of course
the ETFs the 13f filings these major
institutions remember today's the 13th
so we got two more days before the
actual deadline we're going to see more
in tions come out we're going to see how
much they've actually put into it and
again I I've always said it's a step in
the right direction so that's one
Catalyst the next Catalyst we had back
in the day and this has actually changed
is the M2 money supply and if we take a
look and I'm stealing all this
information from Ben's website because I
love this deal and what I did was I we
always overlay and you can overlay
whatever you want you can do Bitcoin uh
you can do let's see
indices the S&P 500 Index pretty much
whatever you overlay and going all the
way back to the 1960s as the money
supply goes up
miraculously the S&P 500 goes up it's
amazing that that works out of course in
these gray sections we have what is
known as a recession however the
government wants to Define that these
days is fine but going back to crypto
let's take Bitcoin
again let me zoom in so people can see
this going back to the very early days
we just see that of course it's great
when we have more liquidity how do we
get more liquidity well the money
printer goes Brewer right treasury comes
out fed comes out and say hey you know
what we need we need more money and
that's exactly what happens now we have
Peaks and valleys of course because
things get overheated and you know we've
talked about this yesterday in
yesterday's video of course why things
go up why things go down and my five
rules but as you can see right here this
was the last time we just took a look at
Corona virus recession very very short
recession I might add because money
printer came on money printer came on
and what did the price do it skyrocketed
and we can see as it goes up and up
there was a point though in April where
things just went a little too crazy
crashed down again here's November or
December well November I think the Peak
at 63 I think it was
67 but then we can see a plateau here as
people started to sell off sell off sell
off and what's interesting in this piece
is that you notice that quantitative
easing turned into quantitative
tightening that means that the money
printer was shut off for quite some time
but yet you can see here as it came down
to its last
point was actually right around here
wasn't it the blue line is Bitcoin the
red line is the M2 money supply what
happened around January December
December 2022 January 2023 that's when
we bottomed out I think Bitcoin was
around I want to say
17,700 and then the money printer got
gets shut off and we we go sideways for
a bit but isn't an odd thing this is the
this is one of the first times this
actually happened I mean to a point
where you been pretty much stagnant on
this money supply and what does
bitcoin's price do just gone up and it's
one of those catalysts because of thing
we just talked about ETF and 13 half
filings and big institutions coming in
so that's the second one and the third
thing just like we had in 2020 we had a
presidential election funny enough we
have the same people battling and I'm
not gonna go into this big time because
nobody likes talking about politics but
I will say it's the same thing it's the
same thing going on again
do not like uncertainty they don't like
the uncertainty of pre-war but it's a
funny thing once you get past
presidential elections which are
essentially a war or real wars getting
into it then all of a sudden the
Market's like okay that's okay so look
on the bride side I know somebody hates
somebody in this picture I can guarantee
it I can feel their seething hatred go
to either Biden or Trump maybe RFK Jr
who hates RFK Jr I don't know worms but
in all
honesty let's just let's just say like
this if Biden gets gets reelected of
course the world's not going to end okay
this is not gonna end and then you can
just look at and go well at least the
markets are going to you know settle
down they're gonna say okay we got Biden
for four more years see that works out
and then you just move move forward then
of course if you get RFK Jr you're like
hey that's that's crazy this will be the
first time a third party cidate actually
won let's see what his his stances are
and he's pretty Pro crypto so that's
good for us and couple of different
other things that he's that on board
with hey might be fantastic and then of
course as everybody's booing let's say
Trump gets elected well that sucks but I
mean he's kind of warming up to crypto
and maybe in in the future if you say
well you know Trump won and I hate his
guts and of course democracy and The
Whole World's Gonna gonna end now on the
bright side you can use all those gains
in your crypto portfolio to move to
Canada wherever you want to go so just
look on the bright side these are these
different catalysts which of course the
presidency M2 money supply and the 13th
filings for the ETF and the last one as
I talk about is reallocation it's a
funny thing and I've made the same
mistake there is a lot of money sloshing
around right now we have around
2.4 trillion dollar in our entire crypto
market cap and when we take a look at
this this little square right here is1
billion I'm not going to go over this
whole thing because it's it's I've
beaten this dead horse way too much but
but I will just say like this I don't
know how the heck gold has almost 12
trillion market cap I still don't get it
if you look at it I mean people I mean
you know some of the the gold books
first of all I gold and silver as well
and they'll say well the intrinsic value
and the trinsic value and it's great for
microprocessors blah blah blah blah blah
you know 90% of what people use gold for
is speculation the other 10% is what
they call the intrinsic value even
though the intrinsic value is whatever
we we hold value to be so I guess I
don't see why we can't take one trillion
away from that I just don't get it and
then I'm not going to talk about this
but but okay look at this the S&P 500
how many people are doing great in the
uh in just traditional equities
Securities stocks that's 36 trillion
could we peel away one trillion from
that from people going you know what I
don't like this game and I don't really
like what's going on maybe I should go
go into crypto a little more I mean just
either half a trillion debt not a big
money supply always we already talked
about more debt look at that that's a
lot of debt but then this part and I
think this is where where we could
really find a lot of people because this
is this has been my conclusion you know
on this channel I love talking about you
know my pleasure in buying real estate
land that type of things short-term
long-term rentals but in all honesty do
you ever own it you don't ever own it it
kind of sucks it kind of sucks because
if you buy your house and you pay off
your house today guess what you're never
going to own it because you're still
going to have to pay taxes on it and
that goes goes on
forever forever and that is even if you
are a disabled
veteran in certain States you do not
have to pay your taxes however when it
goes to your kids or your grandkids
guess who gets taxed well that happens
there and then also when they take it
over they're gonna get taxed at some
point so you'll never really you'll
never ever ever on real estate not to
say that it's not a bad investment I
think it's solid I think it's great it
has fantastic returns it's done done for
me really well me and my wife over the
decades but 326 trillion come on we
can't peel away five trillion out of
that and then of course if we even go
down farther Global wealth yes of course
I get it derivatives I mean come on it's
$600 trillion doll we can't take away
five or 10 trillion from there so I just
look at this and I go why can't we peel
away those funds for a reallocation
anyhow let me know what you think about
that in the comment section then also
just to give everybody a little bit of
ray of sunshine or not too much ETFs are
returning to net inflows following four
weeks of outflows now on this channel I
try to be a little bit balanced not give
you everything too too pretty because it
never goes up in a straight line and
this was a pretty good article
interesting you know I mean just the
title was great
but just know that the inflows total 11
16.8 Million last week and I was reading
this I'm like oh that's pretty good
until I got to the actual graph I'm like
this is very underwhelming I must tell
you so over here is looking pretty great
right but in the last four weeks
beforehand we've had negative negative
negative negative and this little piece
here is $16.8 million so I guess it's
going in the right direction I'm very
happy if you take a look at hey Apollo
uh.com fantastic website to do all the
the tracking of the ETFs just so you
know that grayscale Bitcoin is on the
precipice of losing out to I bit which
would be Black Rock for the most amount
of Bitcoin being held in the beginning
it was
600,000 Bitcoin that was held by
grayscale and now it's down at
289 uh black rocket 275 and micro
strategy very close at 214,000 and of
course once that starts to get depleted
then we don't have so many outflows of
what's going on so I think that's good I
like to to see that and then also just a
little uh little interesting piece of
news because we always kind of sometimes
I I I look a little bit too narrowly
into today I I should really zoom out
like I talk about and this was a I think
a pretty good piece to talk about that
which was this is a great a great
account over on X called look on chain
and I I linked their account in the
description and it's a pretty cool thing
what they do what they do is they
essentially take a look at whale wallets
or just because of course onchain
analysis you can you can do do that but
what you want to do is take a look at
some of the bigger wallets that are out
there and just pretty much track what
they do and just kind of copy trade them
and this is what look on chain does and
it's a it's a really great piece I'm me
just you take a look at it but uh one of
the things they talked about
here two wallets that have been dormant
for almost 11 years Bitcoin wallets
transferred all their 1,000 Bitcoin out
in the past 20 minutes so they haven't
moved they've been
dormant for almost 11 years and they
just transferred out in 20 minutes
wallet whatever this is received 500
Bitcoin 62k of the time on September 13
2013 when the price was get this
$124 124
bucks 500 Bitcoin I mean back then it
seems like a lot of money right and uh
of course you know what that how much
that is
worth yeah that was worth well it's 60.9
for all thousand Bitcoins that's roughly
$30 million
crazy in 10 years where can you do that
can't do that wallet the other one
received 500 Bitcoin 62k at that time
and price is 124 so again uh fall that
account it's pretty interesting they
just said like this was from this is
what what they had H uh pierced on their
on their timeline how did I turn $1,000
on 30,000 with smart money I found a
smart money in madic in June very good
at buying lows and selling highs I had
this address to my watch list and they
just pretty much copied them boom boom
boom boom boom they bought over here and
it's the same thing uh my man over at
smart money crypto does he's been on the
channel a couple times I also linked him
in the description what he does is the
same type of thing he finds these these
big wallet ad or these big whale wallet
addresses and just follows them and then
just says okay this one looks like he's
done some pretty good trades I'm gonna
follow them again gives you some
information goes from there follow him
on YouTube he just got his X account
taken down so I'm trying to help him get
him back into his ex account a little
bit back as he puts it back up so
hopefully get some more followers
because smart kid and lastly if you are
at consensus in Austin May 29th of 31st
I will be there uh I've got to be there
to meet some VCS not my favorite thing
to do but it's because of this project
I'm involved in and uh I will be there
to hopefully meet some of you so uh find
out I'll do you all the posts on X and
that is it for today so look it went a
little bit long but lot of interesting
information that's going on right now
but that's it for today so look like
today's video give it a thumbs up
consider subscribing everything we talk
about is time sensitive
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