Dashyat!!! ADRO Resmi Bagi Dividen Rp 1.350, Yield 35%!!! - Belajar Dari Kasus PTBA Yuk!!

Summary

This video script offers insights into the stock market, with a focus on Adaro's dividend distribution, inflation's impact on the economy, and the behavior of retail investors. The speaker critiques the misunderstanding and emotional responses of retail traders, emphasizing the importance of financial education and strategic investment. It also discusses how rumors and fear can lead to market volatility, particularly around dividend payouts. The message encourages investors to view downturns as opportunities rather than threats, and to maintain emotional control and informed decision-making for long-term success in the market.

Takeaways

• 😀 Inflation control is a major concern for economies like the US, UK, and Germany, with inflation rates being tightly managed to avoid economic instability.
• 😀 Indonesia’s economic situation is in deflation, which contrasts with countries like the UK and Germany where they maintain a 2% inflation target.
• 😀 A 2% inflation target is often considered an achievement, but it can be misleading if the broader economic output is negative, as seen in countries like the UK and Germany during their crises.
• 😀 Many retail investors fail to understand stock fundamentals like share count and valuation, leading to misguided perceptions about stock prices and potential investments.
• 😀 Adaro (ADRO) has 30 billion shares, which makes its stock price appear cheaper compared to companies like AADI with only 7 billion shares. The true valuation depends on the number of shares in circulation.
• 😀 Retail investors often panic during dividend announcements, leading to fear-based selling and stock price fluctuations, especially when rumors or misinformation spread.
• 😀 Strategic investors will use dividend payouts to buy additional assets, including affiliates, ensuring that even if retail investors don’t participate, the shares remain under corporate control.
• 😀 Dividend traps are a common fear tactic in the market. Investors are often warned that stock prices will fall dramatically after a dividend payout, but these claims are not always accurate.
• 😀 It's important to educate oneself about market fundamentals rather than rely on hearsay or misinformation, which often leads to poor financial decisions.
• 😀 Successful investing is about controlling emotions and seeing opportunities where others panic. Strong investors can manage fear and make informed decisions even when faced with volatility.

Q & A

What impact does the 11% VAT increase have on investor behavior?

The 11% VAT increase causes fear among investors, leading them to pull out their investments. This contributes to a market downturn, particularly in the short term.

Why are the UK, Germany, and the US taking a hard stance on inflation?

These countries, especially the UK and Germany, focus on aggressively controlling inflation, often targeting 2%. The US, under the Federal Reserve's approach, maintains interest rates because inflation rose to 2.6%, and they fear lowering rates could worsen inflation.

What is the significance of the 2% inflation target in Indonesia?

While Indonesia's government and economists view 2% inflation as a benchmark of success, the transcript highlights concerns about the country's negative economic growth despite low inflation, raising questions about the effectiveness of this target.

Why is understanding stock share quantities important in stock valuation?

The number of shares in circulation directly affects the valuation of a company. For example, Adaro’s shares are fewer compared to Aadi, which makes Adaro's stock seem more expensive, even though the underlying value may suggest otherwise.

What is the misconception about the price of Adaro's stock being too high?

Retail investors may find it illogical that Adaro’s stock is priced lower than Aadi's, not realizing that Adaro has more shares in circulation. When adjusting for the number of shares, Adaro’s price appears more reasonable.

How does Adaro plan to handle the 1 trillion rupiah from the sale of shares?

Adaro plans to use the 1 trillion rupiah from the sale of shares to acquire full ownership of its affiliates, such as Garibaldi. Any unsold shares will remain under Adaro's control.

What is the future of Adaro's shares after the share buyback and acquisition?

Following the buyback and acquisition of affiliates, Adaro will retain control of any unsold shares, which will not disappear but remain as part of the company's ownership structure.

How will Adaro’s equity be affected by the share buyback process?

Adaro's equity will not disappear after the share buyback. While some funds may not return directly to Adaro, most of the money will circulate back to the company due to its strategic investment plans.

What role does social media play in influencing stock prices during dividend announcements?

Social media plays a significant role in driving panic among retail investors. During dividend announcements, rumors and misleading information often spread, causing retail investors to panic-sell, as seen in the case of PTBA’s dividend last year.

What advice is given to investors dealing with market volatility?

Investors are encouraged to view market drops as opportunities, especially when other retail investors are panicking. A strong understanding of the stock’s value and managing emotional reactions are key to surviving and profiting from market fluctuations.