Be Aware Of These Levels Please | Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis

Summary

In this video, the speaker analyzes Bitcoin's potential price movement using Elliot Wave theory on both the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes. They present two bullish scenarios, focusing on a possible continuation to new all-time highs, and a bearish scenario where a larger corrective wave may form. Key areas of interest are identified, such as Fibonacci levels, volume profiles, and important resistance zones between 90.4k and 91.3k. The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and monitoring price action, especially with high-impact news potentially affecting volatility.

Takeaways

• 😀 A bullish scenario is presented for Bitcoin on the 4-hour time frame, where a continuation to the upside is expected after completing a blue wave four.
• 😀 The common Fibonacci target for wave four is between the 0.236 and 0.5 levels, with the 0.382 Fibonacci level being well-respected in this case.
• 😀 The invalidation level for wave four, based on Fibonacci analysis, is 82.5k (0.618 Fibonacci level).
• 😀 A base channel is used to track the movement of the blue impulse waves, and any significant deviation from the base channel could alter the bullish scenario.
• 😀 If wave four takes out the previous low and touches the lower trend line of the base channel, the probabilities for the bullish blue wave four scenario decrease.
• 😀 A larger wave four structure is considered if the smaller blue wave four is invalidated, suggesting a larger correction and longer retracement before heading upward.
• 😀 The target for the larger green wave four is between 87.2k and 80.1k, with a possible time frame for completion around Tuesday, November 19th at 9 p.m. CET.
• 😀 The minimum target for green wave four would be the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, which is yet to be touched as of the current chart.
• 😀 After the green wave four, the expectation is for a green wave five to move upwards, completing the larger yellow wave three before continuing with yellow four and five towards the upside.
• 😀 The resistance zone between 90.4k and 91.3k is critical, with key levels such as daily naked point of control and the golden pocket providing potential obstacles for further upward movement.

Q & A

What is the main bullish scenario in the Bitcoin analysis on the 4-hour chart?

The main bullish scenario involves a continuation to all-time highs after completing a Blue Wave 4 on the 4-hour chart. The Blue Wave 4 is expected to end between the 0.236 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels, with a key invalidation level at 82.5k (0.618 Fibonacci).

What Fibonacci levels are considered common targets for Wave 4 in this analysis?

Common targets for Wave 4 are the 0.236 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels taken from the low of Wave 2 to the high of Wave 3. The 0.382 level is also commonly respected.

What is the significance of the base channel in the analysis?

The base channel is drawn from the start of Blue Wave 1 to the end of Blue Wave 2 and is used to track the price movement. If Wave 4 moves back into the base channel without breaking below the previous low significantly, the bullish scenario remains intact.

What is the expected timeframe for the completion of Green Wave 4?

Green Wave 4 is expected to finish around November 19th, 9 p.m. Central European Time (CET), based on the time analysis of Green Waves 2 and 3.

What would invalidate the bullish scenario and point to a bearish trend instead?

If Wave 4 breaks below the previous low significantly and touches the lower trendline of the base channel, the bullish scenario becomes less probable. This would shift the probabilities towards a bearish scenario of a larger corrective structure.

What is the target range for Green Wave 4 according to the Fibonacci retracement?

The target range for Green Wave 4, based on Fibonacci retracement from Green Wave 2 to Green Wave 3, is between 87.2k and 80.1k.

What is the bearish scenario presented in the video?

The bearish scenario involves the formation of a larger corrective structure if the price fails to break above key resistance levels. This could result in a double zigzag pattern (ABC-X-ABC) indicating further downside movement.

What are the key resistance levels that traders should watch for the bullish or bearish decision?

The key resistance levels are between 90.4k and 91.3k, with specific areas of interest at 90.4k, 91.3k (naked point of control), and the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement between these values.

What role do CVD divergences play in the analysis?

CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) divergences are used to confirm price movements. After a low was made, bullish CVD divergences were observed, indicating potential for price to move upward. These divergences can help traders anticipate price direction.

How does high-impact news affect the analysis and trading strategy?

High-impact news, scheduled for November 15th, 2:30 p.m. CET, can increase volatility in the market. Traders should be cautious, as news events can significantly impact price movements, making it important to stay informed and manage risk appropriately.