Americans FLEE Cities For Small Town USA

Summary

The video script discusses a significant shift in domestic migration trends in the United States, as highlighted by a study from the University of Virginia's domestic demographics research group. The US Census data reveals a record number of Americans are leaving big cities for smaller ones, particularly those with populations under 250,000. This 'small town boom' is largely attributed to the rise of remote work. The trend, which began pre-pandemic, has been accelerated by the normalization of remote and hybrid work models. The shift has led to a net increase in migration to rural counties and a decrease in larger urban areas. The implications of this demographic change are far-reaching, affecting commercial real estate, local economies, and potentially altering political landscapes. The speaker suggests that this dispersion could be beneficial for cultural diversity and reducing political polarization, as people are exposed to a broader mix of perspectives. The discussion also touches on the potential political ramifications, including the impact on congressional districting and the changing dynamics in states like Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Takeaways

• 🏙️ Record numbers of Americans are leaving big cities for smaller towns and rural areas, largely due to the rise of remote work opportunities.
• 📈 The trend of domestic migration towards areas with populations under 250,000 has surpassed all other locations, indicating a significant shift.
• 📊 From 2000 to 2020, rural counties experienced a net loss in population, but from 2019 to 2020, there was a spike in net migration to these areas.
• 🌾 Factors contributing to this shift include trade policies like NAFTA, the decline of the American Farm, and the 2008 financial crisis.
• 🚨 The pandemic has significantly accelerated this trend, suggesting a persistent change in American migration and living choices.
• 💼 The rise of remote work and hybrid work models has fueled this migration trend, allowing people to live further from urban job centers.
• 🏠 Small towns are experiencing economic growth, with examples like a previously small town in Virginia now having the highest wage growth and new amenities like Starbucks.
• 📉 Large urban centers may face challenges due to population decline, which can lead to business vacancies and a downward spiral for local economies.
• 🏛 Political implications could arise from this demographic shift, potentially affecting the balance of voters and congressional districts.
• 🌐 This migration could lead to more diverse communities and cultural mixing, which can be beneficial for social cohesion and understanding.
• 📚 The book 'Coming Apart' by Charles Murray is mentioned as a resource for understanding these societal shifts, despite some controversy surrounding the author.

Q & A

What is the main trend highlighted by the US Census data?

The US Census data shows a record wave of Americans moving from big cities to small and remote towns, driven largely by the rise of remote work.

What impact has the shift to remote work had on domestic migration patterns?

The shift to remote work has led to a 'small town boom,' with migration to areas under 250,000 people surpassing all other locations.

What are some of the historical factors that have contributed to population decline in rural areas?

Factors such as NAFTA, the consolidation and decline of the American Farm, and the 2008 financial crisis have contributed to significant net loss in rural areas.

How has the net migration to rural counties changed recently?

There has been a massive spike in net migration to rural counties since 2019 and 2020, with over 100,000 people, and this trend has persisted above the overall trend line.

What is the current trend for domestic migration in US counties with over 1 million residents?

US counties with over 1 million residents have been experiencing a significant drop in annual domestic migration, with over a million people leaving from 2020 to 2021.

How has the pandemic influenced these migration trends?

The pandemic has significantly shaken up people's lives and work conditions, accelerating the trend of moving to more rural areas.

What is the potential impact of these migration trends on urban centers?

Urban centers may struggle to maintain their vitality due to population decline, leading to vacancies, a spiral effect on local businesses, and a potential decline in economic activity.

What political implications could these migration trends have?

The migration trends could lead to a more dispersed voter base, potentially affecting the balance of political power and the outcomes of congressional district splits.

Why is the speaker optimistic about the reversal of mass consolidation in the US?

The speaker believes that a more diverse and mixed population, including those with different political views, can lead to better cultural mixing and reduce polarization.

How has the rise of remote work affected the appeal of smaller towns and rural areas?

The normalization of remote work has made smaller towns and rural areas more attractive to people who can now live anywhere while maintaining their urban jobs.

What are some examples of small towns that have experienced significant growth or change due to migration?

The town previously known as the 'sweatshirt capital of Virginia' has seen the highest wage growth in the state and is getting its own Starbucks, indicating a significant shift.

What broader societal changes does the speaker hope will result from this migration trend?

The speaker hopes that the trend will lead to more cultural sorting, reducing the ease of demonization of those with different views, and promoting a healthier social and political climate.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Domestic Migration Trends and Remote Work Impact

This paragraph discusses a recent study highlighting a significant shift in domestic migration within the United States. The US Census data reveals a record number of Americans are leaving large cities for smaller ones, particularly those with populations under 250,000. This 'small town boom' is largely attributed to the rise of remote work. The speaker references a University of Virginia research group's findings, which show a net loss in rural county migration from 2000 to 2020, with a significant spike in 2019 and 2020. The trend is seen as a reversal from previous years, with a notable drop in migration to large cities. The discussion also touches on the potential long-term effects on urban centers and the political implications of these demographic shifts.

05:01

🏙️ Urban Decline and the Challenge for Large Cities

The speaker addresses the challenges that large urban centers may face due to population decline. With fewer people, there is an increased likelihood of vacancies, which can negatively impact local businesses and lead to a downward spiral. Historically, America has seen similar cycles, such as the 'white flight' from cities following the civil rights movement. The speaker suggests that the current trend could have political ramifications, particularly for the Democratic party, which has a high concentration of voters in cities. The potential for a more dispersed voter base could lead to changes in political dynamics. The paragraph concludes with a discussion on the importance of cultural mixing and exposure to diverse viewpoints for societal health.

10:01

🤝 Cultural Sorting and the Need for Interaction

The final paragraph emphasizes the potential benefits of reversing cultural sorting, where like-minded individuals cluster in the same areas. The speaker argues that having a mix of people with different races, socioeconomic backgrounds, and political views interacting with each other can counteract the ease of demonizing those who are perceived as different. The paragraph discusses the role of the media in exacerbating divisions and the importance of personal interaction in breaking down stereotypes. The speaker also mentions the book 'Coming Apart' by Charles Murray and its influence on Joe Biden, suggesting that the current migration trends could be a hopeful sign for the country's cultural and political future.

Keywords

💡Domestic Migration

Domestic migration refers to the movement of people within a country from one place to another. In the video's context, it highlights a trend where Americans are leaving big cities for smaller towns, particularly due to the rise of remote work. This shift is significant as it reverses previous patterns of urbanization and has implications for local economies, real estate, and political landscapes.

💡Remote Work

Remote work is the ability to perform one's job from a location outside of the traditional office setting, often from home or another remote location. The video discusses how the shift towards remote work has fueled a 'small town boom' as people are no longer tied to big cities for their employment, leading to increased migration to rural areas.

💡Small Town Boom

The 'small town boom' is a phenomenon where there is a significant increase in population and economic activity in small towns and rural areas. In the video, this boom is attributed to the rise of remote work, which has made it more attractive for people to move away from big cities. This trend is highlighted as a reversal from previous migration patterns.

💡Rural Counties

Rural counties are areas with a low population density and typically characterized by agricultural or natural landscapes. The video discusses a net increase in migration to rural counties, which contrasts with previous trends of net loss due to factors like the decline in farming and the impact of trade policies like NAFTA.

💡NAFTA

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is a trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. In the video, it is mentioned as a factor that contributed to the decline of certain industries in rural America, leading to population loss in those areas.

💡Pandemic

The term 'pandemic' refers to an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population. The video suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has 'shaken things up' for many people, accelerating the trend of moving to more rural areas and changing living and working preferences.

💡Hybrid Work Models

Hybrid work models combine remote work with in-person office work, allowing employees to split their time between working from home and working at the office. The video discusses how the normalization of such models has contributed to the trend of people moving to smaller towns and rural areas.

💡Commercial Real Estate Bust

A commercial real estate bust refers to a significant downturn in the market for commercial properties, often characterized by declining property values and high vacancy rates. The video mentions this as a looming economic issue, particularly for large urban centers that may struggle with population decline and its subsequent effects on local businesses.

💡Cultural Detriment

Cultural detriment refers to a situation where the cultural fabric of a society is negatively affected. In the video, the speaker argues that the mass consolidation of populations in big cities was a cultural detriment to the U.S., leading to a lack of diversity in perspectives and experiences.

💡Political Implications

Political implications refer to the potential effects or consequences that a particular situation or trend may have on politics. The video discusses how the shift in migration patterns could lead to political changes, such as altering the balance of voters in different regions and potentially affecting the outcomes of elections.

💡Cultural Sorting

Cultural sorting is the process by which people with similar characteristics, beliefs, or values tend to cluster together in the same geographic areas. The video suggests that the trend of moving to smaller towns and rural areas could reverse cultural sorting, leading to more diverse and integrated communities.

💡Real Estate Boom

A real estate boom is a period of rapid growth in the real estate market, characterized by increased property values, high demand for housing, and construction activity. The video mentions several cities and states experiencing real estate booms, which are attracting new residents and contributing to demographic shifts.

Highlights

Record wave of Americans fled big cities for small towns and remote areas under 250,000 people

Small town boom driven by remote work

University of Virginia's domestic demographics research group conducted the study

Net loss of domestic migration in rural counties from 2000 to 2020

NAFTA and decline of American farming contributed to migration trends

2008 financial crisis accelerated population decline in rural areas

Massive spike in net migration to rural counties in 2019-2020

Annual domestic migration in counties with over 1 million residents has been declining

Over 1 million people left large cities from 2020 to 2021

Pandemic shook up people's lives and migration patterns

Remote work fueled and accelerated the trend of moving to rural areas

Persistent change in American migration and living choices

Rise of superstar mega-cities like NYC, SF, LA contrasted with decline in rural areas

Young people leaving rural areas, no one to replace them

Trade policy led to loss of industry in many rural towns

Rural America's future looked extremely dire with population, tax revenue loss

Reversal with cities now struggling with population decline

Vacancies and decline in local businesses can be hard to reverse

Potential political implications of changing demographics

Demographic shifts could change the politics of formerly solid Republican states

Cultural mixing and exposure to different people is good for society

Potential for more cultural sorting and less polarization if demographic trends continue

Positive for small towns and rural areas to have life, growth and investment

Transcripts

all right let's turn to the next one

here I wanted to get something in the

show that was interesting and uh you

know this is some fascinating data

Crystal that you highlighted on top of a

new study that's come out we love to

track domestic migration here let's go

and put this up there on the screen so

latest data that's come out from the US

Census shows that record wave of

Americans fled big cities not for other

big cities but for small ones remote

work in particular has led to a quote

small town boom and Mig to areas under

250,000 people has topped all locations

that's actually crazy because we're

talking about midsize and smaller tier

cities so they highlight a few of them

um in the report but really if you look

at the overall trend line it's

absolutely fascinating so let's go and

put this up there on the screen um I

encourage everybody to go read this by

the way it's from the University of

Virginia's domestic uh demographics

research group and they've done a really

good job here what you see in front of

you is US rural County annual domestic

migration and basically from what you

can see is that from 2000 to basically

what is that 2020 it is net it is net

loss and in some cases significant net

loss a lot of this has to do with NAFTA

with uh you know the consolidation the

decline of the American Farm you can

also see also how 2008 definitely

accelerated a lot of those Trends as

well because a lot of those people went

bankrupt and they were forced to leave

their property but then all of a sudden

2019 in 2020 massive Spike of net

migration increased net migration to

rural counties over 100,000 people and

the fascinating part is it's only it's

stayed up it's I mean it's dropped a

little bit but it's way way above the

overall trend line if we go to the next

part here you can actually see too how

this is a complete reverse if we go to

the next slide please guys which is

annual domestic migration with over 1

million residents you see the same thing

where annual domestic migration in US

counties with over 1 million they've

been losing you know for a little while

but you know relatively going down some

people were moving with they're moving

to Big Earth cities or 250,000 to 1

million but here same thing you just see

a massive drop of over a million people

there from 2020 to 2021 and it continues

in the 800,000 so no real uh sign that

things are changing and in fact I think

what the pandemic did is it just shook

things up significantly for a lot of

people and that shakeup has changed in

combination with work conditions where

they're willing to move to more rural

areas they highlight um one town in here

Crystal uh that you may be able to speak

to which previously was it's like this

Tiny Town previously known as the what

the sweatshirt capital of Virginia and

now they're they have the highest wage

growth in the state and they're getting

their own Starbucks which is crazy

apparently for them so by the way I

wouldn't want Starbucks right um we got

our Starbucks in King George County few

years back and it was very it was a big

deal it's still a big deal that it's

there that's where all the ladies meet

right yeah I mean this is a so looking

at the trends there was this trend

actually began before Co but like many

other things Co accelerated it and so

since you had the um uptake and the

normalization of remote work or at least

like hybrid work models that really

fueled and accelerated this trend and

one of the questions was okay well was

this just like a CO era thing or or is

this a persistent change in American

migration and you know living choices

and what's really noteworthy now is that

it clearly is a persistent change so in

the early part of my you know

professional life it was very much the

the total opposite of this so we had

these rise of these Superstar mega

cities the DC New York San Francisco LA

Etc and they're just you know sucking up

all the population in rural counties uh

in particular were really struggling

because young people just they would

grow up there and they would leave and

no one was coming in to replace them

with trade policy that you know sucked

the industry out of many of these towns

it just it looked really dire for almost

all of Rural America it looked extremely

dire in terms of what the future was you

go to these towns and you can see what

they used to be and you can see how

they're struggling to just you know

maintain the roads and fill the potholes

and keep the school together Etc because

of the loss of population loss of tax

revenue so now we're seeing a total

reversal of that Dynamic where you now

have it's the cities that are going to

struggle with this problem we've talked

about this ties in with the commercial

real estate bust which still looms as a

major economic issue um overhang

actually I just saw this uh holiday in

that's like a block from where we are

right now that just sold for less than

the debt that's owed on yes I mean there

yeah it's crazy if anyone wants a good

deal on a day in I guess there's one

just around the corner here that was for

sale but um in any case these large

Urban centers are going to have a a

major Challenge on their hands to keep

their Vitality because when you have

population decline then you have you

know you have vacancies then it's a

spiral effect in terms of the local

businesses the small businesses the

lunch places the hotels Etc and it can

be very difficult to reverse that

decline now I mean we've had previous

Cycles like this in America um you know

after like the 1968 and the race rights

Etc you had this white flight out of

cities that pretended a real era of

decline in a lot of large mega cities in

America as well and then that you know

that changed around so it's not like

this is permanent and it's the end of

everything but it is really significant

it could also have some political

implications too because one of the

challenges for Democrats in terms of the

House of Representatives is that their

voters tended to be super concentrated

ated in these cities in a way that was

not advantageous for them in terms of

the congressional district split so if

you have Democrats sort of like spread

out a bit more across the Suburban

landscape the small City landscape the

rural landscape it could ultimately lead

to some political implications here as

well but I guess Sager my big takeaway

is those cities may be thankful for

these Republican Governors busting

migrants in they may need that that uh

new blood they may need that increase in

population thankful for it well they

won't be thankful for because they're

going to be on the Dole for the rest of

the time that they're there but people

not for now give them work permits and

they'll be good to go maybe we'll see um

but my point would just be if I would be

very worried like you said if I were

Republicans because you've now become so

attractive that a lot of people who

don't agree with you really at all are

now moving into your state to take

advantage they may agree with you

necessarily on like on tax policy or

whatever but not on abortion we're

already watching this play out in the

state of to now I'm not saying that

these states are going to go Blue what I

am saying is that the changes in their

Coalition is significantly different and

will change what the future politics of

the state look like especially as these

people amass wealth and power and

especially because a lot of these people

have money and you're already watching

it happen right now in Austin I mean

Austin politics has changed dramatically

just in my lifetime from the Texas that

I grew up in I'm hearing the same thing

out of Houston and out of Dallas the

spread that is happening also I mean

Texas is the biggest booming state in

the country tiny little counties which

previously you know you just drive

through are some of the fastest growing

areas in the United States I'm watching

the same thing happen in States like

Arizona where Phoenix you know is one of

the biggest boom towns in the US well

that's no coincidence that Maricopa

County went blue for Biden for the very

first time it's only more likely

especially with things like abortion to

be on the ballot I wouldn't sleep on

Idaho either from what I understand and

everything I've read Boise is a similar

boom didn't think I'd ever say that in

my life boom toown Boise Idaho for real

estate prices and from a lot of

Californians I think the same is true I

believe of the state of North Carolina

Charlotte um there's significant real

estate boom that's happening there I

think Charleston South Carolina seeing

similar things and of course Atlanta

Georgia and the changing demographic so

the politics of all of this can change

significantly both at the Electoral

College level and in terms of just

jering mandering in the way that we

think we think about this but overall

this is a very net positive in my

opinion I think Mass consolidation was a

real cultural detriment to the US

because basically you got to places

where you know and even I current I've

moved away from Washington DC moving

from a place which is 98% blue to 70%

blue is actually different and just in

terms of the people you're around and

then I can't even imagine what it would

be like to live from like 90% blue to

like 5050 I know you live somewhere in a

different area but I'm sure you see that

as well for cultural mixing and just the

type of people you're exposed to it's

good it's important to be around people

who you don't necessarily

agree with or we just very different

from you at all times yeah uh where I

live is uh I think it's about 6040 went

for Trump 6040 um so it's definitely

more it's definitely a conservative area

is where I grew up so it's very you know

it's what I'm used to very comfortable

there um I agree with you that it could

be a very help hopeful story because

there was this previous Dynamic um there

was a book written by Bill b Bishop the

big sword oh yeah yeah that um really

dug into how like-minded people were

clustering in the same places and so you

could go through your life and not have

to you know be at a school board or PTA

meeting with people who had different

views for you or going to get your

coffee at Starbucks with people who are

different like you could live in a total

and complete bubble and guess what human

beings being the tribal creatures that

they are when you're in that bubble and

you don't have to be exposed to people

with different views you can very easily

demonize them you can think of them as

monsters you can think of them as

enemies versus just like you know

complex human beings who happen to have

come to a different place and different

conclusions or had a different cultural

upbringing than you did so if this leads

to more cultural sorting we have all

this discourse about oh we're on the

brink of Civil War and we're going to

tear each other apart and part of that

true polarization and sense that I think

is real of the country being divided in

these you know very Stark ways is the

fact that we have had so much cultural

sorting into these various Bubbles and

so if this reverses that a little bit I

think it will be good I think it will be

healthy for the country I think it is

much better when you have a mix of

people of different you know races

socioeconomic backgrounds political

views who all have to interact with each

other because it really is an antidote

to the easy demonization of people who

are quote unquote different in whatever

way and in in a way that you know Matt

taibe really tracked this quite well in

his Hating Book in a way that has been

that division is very profitable for

cable news industry who can just pick

out one random person and you know use

them to say this is what everybody

disagrees with you has these terrible

views and they're these terrible people

or they're evil they're the biggest

threat to the country Etc that becomes

very powerful if you don't know those

people personally you have no experience

with what they're actually all about and

what they're actually like I mean it's

part of the core Foundation of this show

and why we do what we do so maybe

possibly it could be a very hopeful

Trend and I being a you know a pro small

town rural person I like to see that

there is life being injected back into

these communities I think there's

something you know precious and special

there that's worth rest it's good for

America America's built on that uh

coming apart by Charles Murray same book

same same thing I highly that one's a

little more controversial huh no Charles

Murray's controversial for separate

things that he wrote not for coming

apart coming apart is one of Joe Biden's

favorite books did you know that that's

why I was you should I me it doesn't

show in some of his politics but I mean

I guess we can take it so I recommend

the book don't read the R and IQ stuff

if you don't want to which is in

separate books but separate conversation

uh we got a great guest standing by uh

the UN special rapit tour Franchesca

albanes let's get to it hey guys if you

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