Austrian Capital Theory | Roger W. Garrison
Summary
TLDREl script proporciona una discusión detallada sobre la teoría del capital en la escuela austriaca de economía, contrastando sus conceptos con las ideas de otros economistas prominentes como Frank Knight y Milton Friedman. Se explora la importancia de entender la estructura temporal del capital y cómo los cambios en las tasas de interés pueden afectar el ciclo económico, llevando a un crecimiento sostenible o a un cíclico de auge y depresión. La charla destaca la heterogeneidad del capital y su impacto en la producción y distribución de bienes, resaltando la diferencia fundamental entre enfoques estáticos y dinámicos del proceso productivo. Además, se cuestiona la noción de que la producción y el consumo son simultáneos y se aboga por una comprensión más profunda de la teoría del capital para prever y posiblemente evitar crisis económicas.
Takeaways
- 📚 La teoría del capital austriaca es fundamental para entender el ciclo económico de la escuela austriaca y su importancia en la economía.
- 🗓️ La estructura temporal del capital, que varía con los cambios en las tasas de interés, es crucial para la teoría económica austriaca.
- 💡 La distinción entre la teoría del capital de Frank Knight y la de la escuela austriaca se centra en la percepción de la estructura del capital y la importancia del tiempo en la producción.
- 🧩 La heterogeneidad del capital es un concepto clave en la teoría del capital austriaca, lo que significa que no todos los bienes son intercambiables y cada uno tiene su propio valor y uso.
- 🌱 La noción de que los árboles crecen en un estado estable y no hay consideración del tiempo en la producción, según Knight y Friedman, es un punto de discusión en la teoría económica.
- 🔄 La teoría del capital de la escuela austriaca enfatiza la secuencia de etapas en la producción y cómo el tiempo influye en el valor y la producción de bienes.
- 📉 Las tasas de interés son un factor determinante en la asignación de recursos y en la estructura de producción; una disminución en las tasas de interés puede llevar a un ahorro y reasignación de recursos.
- 🚀 Un aumento en el ahorro puede resultar en una realocación de recursos hacia etapas tempranas de producción, lo que promueve un crecimiento sostenible si las tasas de interés son verdaderas señales del mercado.
- 💥 Si las tasas de interés son manipuladas por el banco central, puede resultar en un auge artificial que lleva a un ciclo de burbuja económica.
- 🤔 La percepción de la teoría del capital varía considerablemente entre economistas, lo que demuestra la complejidad y la diversidad de enfoques en la economía.
- 🌟 La teoría del capital austriaca proporciona una visión detallada de cómo las decisiones de ahorro y las tasas de interés afectan la planificación de la producción y la asignación de recursos a largo plazo.
Q & A
¿Qué es la teoría del capital austriaco y por qué es esencial para entender el ciclo económico?
-La teoría del capital austriaco es fundamental para entender el ciclo económico porque proporciona una visión detallada de cómo funciona la economía, particularmente en lo que respecta a la inversión, el ahorro y el papel del banco central en la economía. Ayuda a explicar fenómenos como la inflación, la recesión y el crecimiento económico.
¿Por qué la teoría del capital de la escuela austriaca es crucial para entender el ciclo de negocios?
-La teoría del capital de la escuela austriaca es crucial porque muestra cómo las decisiones de ahorro y la estructura del capital afectan el crecimiento económico y pueden llevar a ciclos de expansión y recesión. La teoría destaca la importancia de la planificación temporal y cómo las decisiones de inversión pueden afectar el equilibrio económico a largo plazo.
¿Qué es el modelo de etapas de producción de Hayek y cómo se relaciona con la teoría del capital austriaco?
-El modelo de etapas de producción de Hayek es una representación de cómo los recursos se transforman a través de diferentes etapas antes de convertirse en bienes de consumo finales. Se relaciona con la teoría del capital austriaco al enfatizar la importancia de la estructura temporal del capital y cómo las decisiones de inversión y ahorro afectan esta estructura, lo que a su vez influye en el ciclo económico.
¿Cómo la reducción de las tasas de interés puede afectar la economía según la teoría del capital austriaco?
-Según la teoría del capital austriaco, una reducción de las tasas de interés puede llevar a una realocación de recursos hacia etapas de producción tempranas, lo que puede resultar en un aumento en la producción de bienes de consumo a lo largo del tiempo. Sin embargo, si las tasas de interés son manipuladas artificialmente por el banco central en lugar de ser una respuesta natural al ahorro, esto podría llevar a un auge artificial seguido por un derrumbe.
¿Por qué la teoría del capital de Frank Knight y la de la escuela austriaca pueden llevar a conclusiones económicas diferentes?
-La teoría del capital de Frank Knight ve al capital como un stock de factores productivos que producen una flujo constante de bienes de consumo, mientras que la escuela austriaca se enfoca en la estructura del capital y cómo cambia con los cambios en las tasas de interés. Estas diferencias fundamentales en la comprensión del capital y su rol en la economía pueden llevar a conclusiones económicas diferentes, especialmente en lo que respecta a la política monetaria y su impacto en el ciclo de negocios.
¿Qué es la estructura del capital y por qué es importante en la teoría económica?
-La estructura del capital se refiere a la forma en que los recursos se organizan a lo largo del tiempo en diferentes etapas de producción. Es importante en la teoría económica porque determina cómo las decisiones de inversión y ahorro afectan la producción y el consumo a lo largo del tiempo, y cómo las fluctuaciones en las tasas de interés pueden influir en esta estructura, llevando a efectos en el crecimiento económico y el ciclo de negocios.
¿Cómo la noción de 'capital humano' se relaciona con la teoría del capital austriaco?
-En la teoría del capital austriaco, el 'capital humano' se considera como una forma de capital, que es la habilidad y el conocimiento acumulados de los trabajadores. Aunque algunos economistas austriacos como Rothbard no estaban completamente a favor del término 'capital humano', la idea subyacente es que los recursos humanos son una parte valiosa del capital de una empresa y que su valor puede ser expresado en términos de su capacidad para generar futuros ingresos.
¿Por qué es difícil establecer unidades estándar para el capital según la perspectiva económica?
-Establecer unidades estándar para el capital es difícil debido a la heterogeneidad radical del capital. Mientras que las unidades de trabajo (horas laboradas) y la tierra (acres) pueden ser relativamente fáciles de definir y medir, el capital abarca una amplia gama de bienes y tecnologías, cada uno con características únicas que lo hacen difícil de medir de manera uniforme.
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¿Cómo la reducción de tasas de interés por parte del banco central puede afectar la economía de acuerdo con la teoría de Milton Friedman?
-Según Milton Friedman, una reducción de tasas de interés por parte del banco central tiende a aumentar los precios de los recursos en comparación con los precios de los servicios. Esto podría alentar la producción de dichos recursos, pero al mismo tiempo, los precios de los servicios podrían aumentar en relación con los precios de los recursos, trayendo todo de vuelta a su estado inicial y sin cambios en las tasas de interés.
¿Cuál es la diferencia fundamental entre la visión de la estructura del capital de la escuela austriaca y la noción de 'stock y flujo' de Frank Knight?
-La visión de la estructura del capital de la escuela austriaca se enfoca en la importancia del tiempo y cómo las decisiones de inversión y ahorro afectan la producción a lo largo del tiempo. Mientras tanto, la noción de 'stock y flujo' de Frank Knight ve el capital como un stock de factores productivos que producen una flujo constante de bienes de consumo, sin un enfoque específico en la estructura temporal o en cómo las tasas de interés pueden afectar esta estructura.
¿Cómo la teoría del capital de la escuela austriaca puede predecir ciclos de auge y recesión?
-La teoría del capital de la escuela austriaca predice ciclos de auge y recesión al analizar cómo las decisiones de inversión y ahorro, influenciadas por las tasas de interés, pueden llevar a una realocación de recursos que no está alineada con las preferencias de tiempo real del consumidor. Si las tasas de interés son artificialmente bajas, esto puede llevar a un auge temporal basado en inversiones mal orientadas, que eventualmente conduce a una recesión cuando las malas inversiones son reconocidas y se corrige el equilibrio económico.
Outlines
📚 Introducción a la Teoría del Capital Austriaca
El primer párrafo introduce la teoría del capital austriaco, destacando su importancia para entender el ciclo económico de la escuela austriaca. Se menciona que otros escuelas de pensamiento, especialmente Milton Friedman, no comprenden plenamente esta teoría. Se discute la diversidad de usos del término 'capital', desde el capital bancario hasta el capital humano, y se enfatiza la necesidad de entender la estructura del capital y cómo los cambios en las tasas de interés pueden afectar el crecimiento económico y generar ciclos de auge y depresión.
🧐 Heterogeneidad del Capital y su Comprensión
Este párrafo profundiza en la naturaleza radicalmente heterogénea del capital, contrastándola con la heterogeneidad del trabajo y la tierra. Se explora la dificultad de definir unidades de capital de manera clara y se cuestiona la noción de que el capital, en su forma más amplia, incluye factores como el trabajo y la tierra. Se destaca la importancia de la temporalidad en la teoría del capital austriaco y cómo esta puede cambiar con las tasas de interés.
🌳 Desarrollo de la Teoría del Capital en el Tiempo
El tercer párrafo aborda la discusión entre diferentes economistas sobre la naturaleza del capital y el tiempo en la producción. Se menciona la visión de Clark y Knight, quienes ven el tiempo de producción como irrelevante en un estado estable, contrastando con la perspectiva de Hayek y otros austriacos para quienes el tiempo de producción es crucial. Se discute la idea de que la producción y el consumo son simultáneos y cómo esto afecta la teoría económica del capital.
🔍 Teoría del Capital como 'Black Box'
Este párrafo compara la teoría del capital de Knight con una caja negra, un dispositivo que no requiere que el usuario conozca su interior para funcionar. Se discute cómo el capital se mantiene a sí mismo y produce una corriente de bienes de consumo. Se destaca la idea de que todos los factores de producción, incluyendo el capital humano y la tierra, se pueden considerar como formas de capital en una perspectiva más amplia.
📈 Efectos de las Tasas de Interés en la Teoría del Capital
Se explora cómo las tasas de interés afectan los precios de los factores productivos y los servicios en la teoría económica. Se describe cómo la reducción de las tasas de interés por parte del banco central puede llevar a un aumento en los precios de los factores productivos y, en última instancia, en los servicios. Se discute la idea de que estos cambios pueden deshacer los efectos iniciales de las tasas de interés y cómo la teoría económica de Friedman sugiere que estos cambios ocurren de manera simultánea, sin tiempo para una depresión económica.
🏭 Estructura del Capital y Proceso de Producción
Este párrafo se enfoca en la estructura del capital y cómo la producción ocurre en secuencias de etapas, donde la salida de una etapa sirve como entrada para la siguiente. Se discute la importancia del tiempo en la secuencia de producción y cómo la teoría del capital de Hayek se enfoca en la estructura temporal del capital y las implicaciones de las tasas de interés diferenciales. Se destaca la diferencia entre la visión de Hayek y otros economistas como Knight y Friedman en cuanto a la importancia del tiempo y la estructura del capital en la producción económica.
🌱 Aumento de la Estructura de Producción y Crecimiento Económico
El último párrafo aborda cómo un aumento en la ahorro de los individuos puede afectar la estructura de producción y, por tanto, el crecimiento económico. Se discute cómo el ahorro puede llevar a una realocación de recursos hacia etapas tempranas de producción y cómo esto puede resultar en un aumento en la producción de bienes de consumo a lo largo del tiempo. Se destaca la importancia de que las tasas de interés sean verdaderas señales de la disposición de las personas a ahorrar y cómo esto puede llevar a un crecimiento sostenible, en contraste con un auge artificial generado por la manipulación de las tasas por parte del banco central.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Teoría del Capital Austriaca
💡Ciclo Económico
💡Tasa de Interés
💡Estructura del Capital
💡Ahorro
💡Banco Central
💡Homogeneidad del Capital
💡Tiempo de Producción
💡Fluenciales y Stock
💡Recursos
💡Economía de Steady State
Highlights
Lecture focuses on Austrian capital theory and its importance to understanding the business cycle.
Contrasts Hayekian stages of production model with Frank Knight's concept of capital as a stock yielding a flow of consumption goods.
Discusses the confusion around the term 'capital' due to its varied use in economic contexts.
Explains the Austrian school's concept of capital structure as a temporal pattern of heterogeneous producers' capital.
Critiques the idea that capital is radically heterogeneous, unlike labor and land, and its implications for economic understanding.
Details how changes in interest rates, whether due to saving or central bank intervention, affect the capital structure.
Differentiates between the views of capital maintenance as a technical detail versus a matter of choice.
Explores the concept of capital as the only factor of production, absorbing human capital, land, and other sources.
Analyzes the impact of central bank actions on interest rates and the subsequent effects on the prices of sources and services.
Discusses the steady-state economy and its relation to production time, a concept that is irrelevant in Knight's view but crucial in Austrian economics.
Presents the idea of capital as a 'black box' that maintains itself and yields a flow of consumable output.
Compares the static view of capital in the 'black box' theory with the dynamic market processes in Austrian economics.
Examines the role of saving in reallocating resources towards early stages of production and its effect on economic growth.
Illustrates the structure of production as a triangle representing the intertemporal structure of an economy experiencing growth.
Clarifies the critical differences between Knight's and Hayek's views on capital, interest rates, and the market mechanism.
Warns of the potential for an artificial boom and bust when interest rates are artificially lowered by a central bank, contrasting with sustainable growth from genuine saving.
Transcripts
okay y'all quiet down at three o'clock
it works fine this lecture is on
Austrian capital theory and that that's
essential to learning about the business
cycle of the Austrian school and I'll do
a lecture on that and another day or so
but I'm going to lead up to it so that
you can so see just how crucial it is to
get the capital Theory straight and to
recognize that other schools of
economics just don't see it they don't
they don't see it at all and especially
Milton Friedman and so I showed you two
views here one is a Hayekian stages of
production model you know what that is
and the other one is the freeing Banyon
and actually it's naughty and it comes
from Frank Knight when both knight and
freedmen were at the University of
Chicago and I would claim that freedmen
got just a little too much night to
understand how the business cycle works
we're going to neglect changes animal
spirits okay we'll just leave that leave
that aside now start out that one of the
reasons that people get confused about
capital in Austrian theory or any other
theory is that the word capital is used
in so many contexts and so I'll show you
a few and then we'll zoom in on the
couple that are at at issue this
afternoon
we can talk about bank capital as assets
minus liabilities or
net worth you know we know about that
liquid capital how liquid is it well
that's cash held by producers for future
investment so it's that's the you know
dollar
Capital hears fixed capital you know
what that is plant and equipment fixed
implies durable working capital
that's goods in process raw materials
and semi-finished good capitalized value
that's present value of net future
receipts so the word is used to mean a
lot of different things and human
capital present value of a skilled
workers future earnings
rothbard didn't like the use of the word
human capital and I'm not sure just why
I think I know and that's because
business firms have to hire people and
the capital that those people have are
their capital not not the producers
capital but nonetheless that's still
another use of the word capital now
we're going to get serious because I'm
underlining things okay and one of them
is Frank Knight his concept of capital
was as a capital stock so it's a stock
of productive factors that yield a flow
of consumption good so you'll hear a lot
this time about stock inflows and then
you could guess the other one is capital
structure that's the Austrian school the
temporal pattern of heterogeneous
producers capital okay and it's a
pattern that can change and can change
by changes in the interest rate and the
changes based on the interest rates do
one thing if the rates come down because
people start saving more
and it does another thing if it's a
central bank that pulls them down one
gets you increasing growth the other one
gives you boom and bust so that's what
you want to look for in this lecture so
trawl the rest of them out and those are
the ideas of capital that we're going to
work with now there's a problem of major
in capital and sometimes it's hard to
get a handle on this what's what's the
problem okay
and one way of saying it is capital as
heterogenous doesn't get very far a lot
of things are heterogeneous okay so that
can't be it
exclusively another one the C but aren't
labor and land heterogeneous - well yeah
yeah so what's so strange about capitals
let's go on capital is radically
heterogeneous now that sounds like
something Ludwig Lachman would say okay
and that's fine but we need to see what
it means okay
so just how radical is capital
heterogeneity so capital is
dimensionally capable there are every
genius it's dimensionally heterogeneous
all right now let's look at our labor
land and capital and I've put in some
units here for you to figure out what
they are not all units of labor are
alike well of course not all units of
land are alike and not all units of
capital airline well so what's so good
and what's so strange about capital
and I'll show you what and you'll be
able to see just what let's start with
was labor worker hours that's that's the
working unit now okay we could talk
about unskilled labor semi skilled labor
or
skilled labor okay but there's still
heterogeneous but at least we have an
idea of what the units are and then you
could guess what it is in land we'd call
it acres if you're talking farmland and
of course it can be different grades of
fertility it can be terrain it could be
location and so on but we can talk about
acres if it's residential then of course
look with the other way if it's
residential then you know that's another
way of looking at it now I'll ask you
what what are the units of capital
what are those units and you kind of
hard-pressed to say something and I've
scoured through a number of well say
intermediate level macro books to see
what they say about it right so and so
here are a few of them they just put
units on it's they have their
parentheses there are units of capital
yeah what are they well let's look at
even some worse intermediate macro what
you get doses are counted
it's not gonna work okay
chunks and honks I'm not a differential
no I'm you know I went to the computer
and just looked up and see what these
things are and and if that can work okay
so you know there you got gallons and
you got pounds and said no that's not
gonna work
there's a dose of capital okay there's a
chunk is it a standard chunk could be in
a home that's human capital beef broth
barrage against that - okay now what our
focus is on is the Austrians and Frank
Knight and later Friedman right so you
can see what the the divisions are
temporal pattern that's that's the
Austrians and it's not just Hayek it's
minger Mises shoe Pater bomba burger all
right it's all about the temporal
pattern you have to have a time element
in there and it it can change with the
interest rate and it's important what
about what it is that changed the
interest rate as I've already indicated
and then stock and flow has a pretty
antiseptic look it doesn't it doesn't
have any pattern at all just a stock of
it and the flow from it right
now it turns out that that same clash
came much earlier with of course now
bomba Varick looking at the temporal
pattern and John Bates Clark was stock
and flow okay and I don't I don't see
much of stock and flow that he had as
opposed to some of the others and
Friedman for instance although I have to
say I have good feelings with Clark but
that's only because he looks just like
my grandfather
well-spotted mad so what about
production time in the Clark night
vision and it goes like this you see a
bunch of trees that have been set out
and some of them are growing because
they've been there more time than others
and Clark would argue and so would night
and so would freedom them okay that once
the steady state is reached and I
underline that then production time is
irrelevant to relevance and right now
clue you in that you may not have read
enough night but night puts quotation
marks around verbs that make you wonder
why to do and to me it seems like it
when he puts quotation marks you just
sort of crossing his finger like hope
you'll go for that you know
so we'll see more of them I'll let you
look for the quotation marks point them
out if you don't see him okay
so trees have a linear maturity
structure actually log glean here you
can see the curve a little bit okay each
period of sampling is set out and a
mature tree is harvested well okay look
they're over on the Left we'll start now
with year one these already got set it
out okay and so there we've got another
one okay and then look over at the right
and you can harvest that true okay and
so you've got a new tree and yet you've
got left what you had to start with all
right because it's a steady state as
long as you maintain this steady state
there's no time element involved at all
according to Knight and Freeman in that
sense maybe so the next period presents
us with the same maturity profile all
right let's see yeah see there grows it
grows again so that's that's what you
had before and you don't have to worry
about time at all okay so here's a look
at look at the quotation marks okay it's
the setting out that enables the
harvesting really is that what enables
the harvesting and what that means of
course is that somehow if you're just
dead set on having a steady-state
economy with no increase or no decrease
if you just have to have that then this
is what you do okay
now this
this one just got Hayek he couldn't
stand it setting out the sapling now
producers looking close the harvestable
free now okay and of course Hayek says
that's just an absurd use of words
that's all there is to it
it can't be true and there you go so
production and consumption are
simultaneous so don't why kayak why
you're worried about the time element
it's the same every every time so this
is what what night and then Friedman are
thinking about okay now here's George
Stigler and stickler courses most of you
know was at Chicago at the time that
Friedman was and night was so George
Stigler defends Clark and dismisses
bomba Varick on the basis of the
simultaneous simultaneity of production
and consumption we can say that any one
row of trees takes fifty years to mature
but since there is a constant output of
timber forever
there's simply no point in saying and
then a strange thing that's George
Stigler and this price is in production
no that's not it
it's production production and
distribution theories in 1941 and that's
stigler's dissertation under guess who
Frank not that's the story and we'll get
one more thing about about stings we
look at this
I wrote my dissertation in the history
of economic thought under Frank ty he
was so strong minded and so critical a
student of the literature that it was a
good many years before I could read
economic classics through my own eyes
instead of his I have never brought
myself to read through my doctoral
dissertation and that's production and
distribution theories again because I
knew I would be embarrassed by both the
knighting excesses and its immaturity
that's a stickler who said it at a at a
talk in the 1984 that and that's it all
right now we got when I call it black
box capital fear watch but black box
capital Theory is it it's like a flight
recorder on airline that's the black box
is it really black you know it's orange
okay it's a joint but the blackness is
that you don't get to see inside that's
it you don't just don't look at it okay
don't open it up so it's any complex
piece of equipment typically a
plug-and-play unit in an electronic
system the specific context about which
the user has no need to know all right
now this is a complete analog to the
capital stock all we need do now though
so that's the idea that you don't mess
what's in the box that's that's the
capital in there see what we can do with
it
yeah so you have maintenance of capital
it sort of maintains itself as you can
see and a flow of consumption so oh oh I
want to leave the maintenance of capital
there because that is just a
technicality because what that's what
you're looking at with the capital stock
the capital stock includes maintenance
as a there it is technically detail well
of course this it's not a technical
detail I mean some people would do more
maintenance than others you might do it
once a week or once every ten days once
every five days whatever you choose to
do okay and worries about this if it
goes wrong maybe you should do a little
more maintenance all right so it it's if
not a technical detail at all so hence
the capital stock is permanent it it
maintains itself it's permanent and they
say you know I'm saying he puts
quotation marks every time you turn
around and that that's actually not
always because he has another way of
saying it
capitals the Gerald O'Driscoll put me
onto this years ago and I keep
underlining it in my book on night here
it is the capital stock is permanent
well it is safer
and then a page or two later
now capital stock is permanent as it
were what else with a cold capital stock
is permanent so to speak what can you do
it's not permanent we're sorry okay so
the permanent capital stock yields a
perpetual flow and you think about what
the quality shion's are in a sense as
the work so to speak okay so if you go
for night and that's that's what you've
got to get into so here we are the
capital stock we've got maintenance of
capital we've got flow of consumption
okay so we have a system of capital
yielding consumable output all right
and then he says but really there's only
one factor of production you thought
there were three there were only one it
is capital okay
so human capital everything everything
becomes capital land becomes capital and
so on in the broad sense of sources so
now we've gone to the idea of sources
okay good sources much more inclusive
than just capital as you thought it was
before you realize there really there's
only one factor of production
and sources now look at her maintenance
of capital well land labor and capital
are all capital in the broader sense
right so maintain main maintenance of
sources is what we look at and look at
the flow of consumption it's the flow of
services because Knight doesn't want to
mess with people who aren't producers
that nonetheless have things like houses
that yield a return over time okay he
wants it he wants it all be services so
you have to think that everybody's a
renter or something everybody has a
service book cause they own a home all
right now don't try to read this what
what I read this it just wasn't wouldn't
work
let's put the sources up and the
maintenance of sources and the services
so that's what we got and I'm gonna try
to read it for you I may not make it but
to help me and maybe you are color coded
so you know where the services are and
you know where the sources are now
before I go through this just a wild
girl is all that's given so this is this
one is Freeman it goes over to the next
slide and I'll show you where it comes
from Freedman so this is Freeman and so
he's locked into tonight on on capital
theory okay well I have one blue thing
up there just to let you know what it's
about the key feature that's Freeman and
then I write of the process in which
interest rates have
been lowered and has put it that way
because what they're talking about has
been lowered by the central bank but
there's nothing just not that she
decided that to change her saving habits
okay it's been lowered okay so and so
the key feature is that it tends to
raise the prices of sources okay that
this student Hornstein of both producer
and consumer services and those consumer
services I have to do with houses that
are rented okay relative to the prices
of services themselves there really are
services like the maid or something like
that if therefore encourages the
production of such sources and at the
same time the everything happens here at
the same time so you don't have any any
problems during a bust right because the
whole happens at the same time the
direct acquisition of the services
rather than of the sources but these
reactions in their turn tend to raise
the price of services relative to the
prices of sources that is to undo the
initial effects of the interest rate
okay so nothing really has happened
because though time has been allowed for
anything to happen and it goes on it's
pretty busy okay the final result may be
arise in expenditures all directions
without any change in interest rates at
all interest rates and asset prices may
simply be the conduct through which the
effect of the monetary change is
transmitted to expenditures without
being altered at all so everything just
happens at once essentially and this is
there's no time for
a depression or a downturn and this
comes from Friedman's optimum quantity
of money and other essays you could look
it up that's the strange thing so
essentially he could have said he could
have said okay so much for that
Mises you know so it's for that Hayek
because nothing actually happens all
right now despite the fact that they're
talking talking about steady state do
you realize that things can go awry and
you can actually grow or you can
actually train right and so that they
show how this works do let's see if we
can do it okay there's a capital stock
doesn't get much output but everything
comes back to the capital stock
it's gone
alright now this let's just look at
night and hayek and modulus a Friedman
and Hayek alright it goes like this
maintenance is a technical detail Oh
hiya Quinn degree maintenance is a
matter of choice capital is permanent no
capital depreciates but is aldeman able
capital is the only factor capital is
heterogeneous and multi specific
production time is irrelevant in
production time is a key variable in boy
is that true in Austrian economics its
key variable it's all about sources and
services it's all about temporal capital
structure it's about stocks and flow
according to night and it's about
dynamic market processes according to hi
hi you can't think of two economists
that would be that far apart on these
basic issues but there they are and to
me it's I don't get it
with Friedman I don't get it the
Friedman would pick up on that and the
only thing I can think of is that he was
there with Frank Knight and you heard
what always said what Stiegler said
about how how he just couldn't read it
on his own had to read it through 9 as
reported in March thousand in his vienna
and chicago very webern and early 1950s
PhD candidate at the University of
Chicago reports that Austrian capital
theory
was one of those subjects were potent
verboten in Chicago right he says one of
those what were some of the others I all
right now let's look at minger and so
what's going on here he uses two term
goods of different quarters goods of the
seventh order goods of the first order
the goods of the first order are
consumption goods so we'll change that
to consumption good and you have
higher-order goods and that always
struck me as strange higher what makes
up higher and all I can think of it's up
there at the top of the screen you know
that's higher you call that higher order
good put the highest order Goods near
the top of the screen and Hayek followed
suit as you'll see shortly so there's a
higher word goods now what we see here
is production proceeds top to bottom
well how could it not you can't start at
the bottom and go to the top all right
but value imputation goes from bottom to
top okay
some of those parallels what dr. Salerno
talked about this morning
you can see what I've done is just
superimposed high-hat structural
production that's
page 56 or whatever in the structure of
production orders of goods and this this
thing hood of strange
took me a long time to wonderful what
does that mean birthing in another Hayek
hangers strange and what strange is is
that you have time coming down the
horizontal axis well okay but there's
nowhere else in this world of economics
where time goes downward always goes
upward but they've got it goes down with
you you might think that it crashes at
the origin or something
and at the bottom you have consumer
goods that are flushed out okay
and that's that's sort of on to clean it
up a little bit that's that's just
higher now okay yep I work on this to
sort of fix it because I didn't like
this time coming down in that and I
worked on it quite a while
Walter block told me I did a good job
okay so let's see how it works
[Laughter]
okay so though the time goes left to
ride as you would think and the
consumption comes out of right as you
would guess okay you know there's a more
stylized trying well it does not a
styler that's the triangle
so we talk about the - triangle it's
just really the blue part there or
purple whatever whatever that is
hi I think triangle yeah production time
is the sequence of stages we get that
right now you might all be thinking if
we're dealing with a capital structure
isn't that really a simple thing thing
is simple to way looking at G's but at
least you have the time element there
and if you really think that's just too
simple for you to play with then go to
pure theory of capital instead of prices
in production and here's what you'll
find so you'll be better off with with
the purple triangle okay okay here we go
the structure production I think they've
got time capital base macroeconomics
disaggregates capital to enter
temporally consumable output is produced
by sequence of stages of production the
output of one stage feeding in to the
input of the next the temporal
temporally defined stages or array
graphically from left to right the
output of the final stage constituting
consumable output so there's the
triangle in stages at least we put the
stages back in and there's somebody at
the early stage it looks like he's on
the ball goes what he's doing
late stage now that guy's kind of
loafing and entering customers but show
up yeah late stage investment activities
is simple exemplified by inventory
management
now I put this and this is a factory it
says main gate down here and you see the
main gate over there and you'll see a
sign that says you are here if you've
ever gone to look at you you are here
now what's missing is that one that says
we are here and the point the point is
that that almost any factory would be
producing things that some go one stage
and some go another and you're not quite
sure because you haven't read prices and
production you don't know what is where
alright so they wouldn't be able to tell
you where it goes it might be ball
bearings that are that go to that go to
mining mining equipment and also go to
stage board is that early stage your
late stage so it's really you can't sort
it out at the industry level for
pedagogical convenience the initial
capital structure is shown as having
five stages with growth the number of
stages will increase well okay so while
all five of these stages are in
operation during each period resources
can be tracked to the structure of
production over time let's see this what
what's that what's the goods in process
there is oh this is a note here Henry I
see I can reduce the triangle in 1931
when Henry Ford was still producing a
Model A if only Hayek had had PowerPoint
he could have shown how the abstract
triangle aligns with real-world output
we can do that here and that's just to
show you that the output doesn't fall
out of the bottom okay you comes to the
right together the sequence of stages
format hijacking triangle of summary
depiction of the economies intertemporal
structure of production in an economy
experiencing secular growth the triangle
increases in size but not or not
necessarily in shape and that is an
increase in size if people are saving
right you know it'll change in shape if
they decide to save more or save less
that's what a man watch to the watch the
structure of production to expand here
you can see it expands as people must be
saving but it's the same general shape
as to triangle when people choose to
save more the change in their preferred
temporal pattern of consumption is
registered by the market the first and
foremost by reduction in interest rates
and this see reduced current consumption
frees up resources in the late stages
which then can be employed in the early
stages I should say which some can
become employed in the early stages so
it looks like it looks different let's
see
so what's the structure production
respond to an increase in save so sure
enough see when cane so they he didn't
have a triangle so when he saw that
people saved that means they're not
consuming well if they're not consuming
why would we be producing and Hayek says
realizes that notes if they're saving
that changes the interest rate and it
makes it makes production better more
profitable so in Hayek in theory
increase saving results in a
reallocation of resources towards the
early stages of production there the
differential interest rates that
sensitivities or the xix theory in
nineteen theory increasing saving beyond
capital mainland maintenance requires a
requirements result in an increase in
the capital stock but with no
implications about capital's temporal
structure that's that's what's lame
about this you can get a big capital
stock but it's not spread out just right
an increase in output of consumer goods
emerges over time as their as the early
and intermediate products move through
the more time-consuming structure of
production so now now that you have
saving you can increase faster
we can see clearly the critical
difference between night and high if you
burn through the casing of the high of
the night in black box we see the hayek
Hayekian temporal structure of capital
that allows for differential interest
rate sensitivities and hence reveals the
market mechanism that tailors production
plans to the inner temporal preferences
if the interest rates are telling you
the truth about people's willingness to
save it gets genuine sign a sustainable
growth if interest rates are being held
down by the central bank's we get an
artificial boom followed by a bust so
that's the end of this one in the start
of boom bust cycle when I do another you
okay they're there they are
thank you
[Applause]
you
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