🚨CRISE NOS FUNDOS IMOBILIÁRIOS! O QUE ESTÁ ACONTECENDO COM OS FUNDOS IMOBILIÁRIOS?

Summary

The video discusses the decline of several real estate investment funds (FIIs) in Brazil, attributed to rising interest rates and inflation concerns. The presenter, Neto Pereira, explains how the government's high spending and rising public debt contribute to inflation, leading the central bank to increase the SELIC rate, which impacts both FIIs and the stock market negatively. He advises long-term investors to seize this opportunity to buy discounted FIIs, emphasizing a buy-and-hold strategy. He also encourages viewers to remain calm, avoid panic selling, and focus on long-term financial goals.

Takeaways

• 📉 Many real estate investment funds (FIIs) have experienced declines in 2023, such as VGHF11 (-13.31%) and HGLG11 (-24%).
• 💰 The Brazilian government's high spending and growing public debt are contributing to economic instability, including rising inflation.
• 📊 The Central Bank of Brazil raised the SELIC interest rate to 10.75% to control inflation, which affects the stock market and real estate funds negatively.
• 📈 When the SELIC rate rises, the IFIX (index of real estate funds) tends to fall, and vice versa.
• 🔄 Investors are shifting from variable income assets like real estate funds to fixed-income investments due to the higher returns and lower risk in the fixed-income market.
• 🏠 Despite the current downturn in FIIs, the presenter encourages long-term investors to view this as an opportunity to buy discounted shares in quality funds.
• 🧠 The key is to think rationally and not emotionally in variable income investments, especially when fundamentals of funds remain strong.
• 📖 The presenter recommends the book 'Smart Investments' by Gustavo Cerbasi for better understanding of investments.
• 📉 FIIs' dividends may be lower due to market conditions, but selling shares out of panic isn't advised if the funds are still fundamentally sound.
• 🎯 The video encourages a long-term 'buy and hold' strategy, suggesting now is a good time to invest while others are selling.

Q & A

Why are real estate investment funds (FIIs) experiencing significant declines this year?

Real estate investment funds are facing declines due to macroeconomic factors such as rising inflation and the increase in Brazil's Selic rate. As interest rates rise, investors tend to move their money from variable income investments like FIIs to safer, fixed-income options with attractive returns.

What is the relationship between the Selic rate and the performance of FIIs?

The Selic rate and FIIs have an inverse relationship. When the Selic rate rises, FIIs typically see a decline as investors shift towards fixed-income products. Conversely, when the Selic rate falls, FIIs tend to perform better as they become more attractive compared to fixed-income investments.

Why do investors shift to fixed-income investments when the Selic rate rises?

As the Selic rate rises, fixed-income investments offer higher and more stable returns, making them less risky compared to variable income options like FIIs or stocks. The higher returns in fixed-income products attract investors, reducing the appeal of riskier assets like FIIs.

How does inflation affect the performance of FIIs?

Inflation negatively affects FIIs because it leads to higher interest rates, which increases the cost of borrowing for businesses and individuals. This reduces economic activity, impacting the value of real estate and lowering the returns on FIIs. High inflation also pushes investors toward safer fixed-income options.

Should investors sell their FIIs in light of the recent declines?

The speaker suggests that investors should not panic and sell their FIIs just because of recent declines. Instead, they should think long-term and consider buying more FIIs at discounted prices, as these declines are seen as temporary and part of the market cycle.

What is the speaker’s advice for dealing with market volatility in FIIs?

The speaker advises maintaining a diversified portfolio and focusing on the long-term potential of FIIs. They suggest taking advantage of the current low prices to buy more, rather than selling due to short-term market fluctuations.

Why might the Selic rate not remain elevated for a long period?

According to the speaker, maintaining an elevated Selic rate for an extended period is unhealthy for the economy. A high Selic rate stifles economic growth, so it's expected that the rate will eventually be lowered to promote economic recovery.

What is the speaker’s stance on managing fixed-income and variable-income investments during this period?

The speaker advocates for a balanced approach, suggesting that while it is wise to take advantage of the current favorable conditions in fixed-income investments, investors should still maintain a presence in variable-income investments like FIIs, focusing on the long-term growth potential.

How can investors identify which FIIs are worth holding or buying during market downturns?

Investors should look for FIIs that have strong fundamentals, good management, and are not experiencing financial difficulties such as poor management or defaults. If these conditions are met, the FIIs are likely to recover when market conditions improve.

What long-term strategy does the speaker recommend for FII investors?

The speaker recommends a buy-and-hold strategy, where investors focus on acquiring more FIIs during downturns at lower prices and holding onto them for long-term gains. This approach emphasizes patience and the importance of not reacting emotionally to market news.