A MAIOR OPORTUNIDADE para comprar FUNDOS IMOBILIÁRIOS baratos em 2025!

Summary

This video delves into the current state of real estate investment funds (FIIs) in Brazil, highlighting how the IFIX index has experienced a 10.5% drop over the past six months. Despite recent turbulence, the market is said to be at its second-largest discount in history, with opportunities for investors. The video explores factors influencing the market, such as the interest rate, inflation, and the behavior of retail investors. It also outlines methods for calculating the maximum price to pay for FIIs and compares them to Treasury IPCA+ bonds, offering insights into risk and potential returns.

Takeaways

• 😀 Real estate investment funds (FII) are currently undervalued, with the IFIX index showing a 10.5% drop in the last 6 months.
• 😀 The current market discount on FIIs is the second-largest in history, at 18%, only surpassed by the 2015-2016 crisis, which saw a 24% discount.
• 😀 Interest rates play a major role in FII performance. High Selic rates harm the economy, reducing consumption, credit availability, and demand for real estate.
• 😀 In times of high interest rates, FII performance suffers due to lower demand for properties like logistics warehouses and retail spaces.
• 😀 FIIs are a relatively new investment class, with only 12-13 years of market history, making it harder to make long-term comparisons.
• 😀 75% of FII investments are made by individual (retail) investors, who tend to be more emotional, selling off assets during uncertain times, exacerbating market drops.
• 😀 The IFIX index is suffering more than the Ibovespa (Brazil's stock market index), partly due to the retail-heavy composition of the FII market and the behavior of individual investors.
• 😀 Commodities and export companies in the Ibovespa have benefited from a strong US dollar, helping to stabilize the stock index despite broader economic challenges.
• 😀 When evaluating FII investments, investors can use a price ceiling (maximum price to pay) calculation, factoring in expected dividend distributions and risk premiums.
• 😀 For example, the XPML11 FII, a shopping center fund, shows a significant margin of safety when priced against projected returns, indicating the potential for undervaluation in the market.
• 😀 While evaluating funds with the Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) can be useful for paper FIIs, it’s not as reliable for brick-and-mortar funds, as property evaluations can be outdated and less accurate.

Q & A

What is the current discount level of real estate investment funds (FIIs) according to the IFIX?

The current discount level of real estate investment funds, as indicated by the IFIX index, is 18%. This is higher than the discount seen during the pandemic, which was 16%.

Why do real estate investment funds (FIIs) suffer during periods of high interest rates?

During high interest rate periods, consumption and credit demand decrease as the cost of money rises. This leads to economic cooling, reducing demand for commercial properties like logistics centers and shopping malls, which negatively affects real estate investment funds.

What was the largest discount ever observed in FIIs, and when did it occur?

The largest discount observed in real estate investment funds occurred in 2015-2016, during the Dilma impeachment period when the Selic rate was very high, reaching up to 24%.

Why is the current period with an 18% discount in FIIs considered significant?

The 18% discount is considered significant because it is the second-largest discount in the history of the IFIX, following the 2015-2016 crisis period, indicating a considerable market opportunity despite current economic challenges.

How do individual investors impact the performance of real estate investment funds?

Individual investors, who make up 75% of the real estate investment funds market, tend to make emotional decisions, especially in uncertain times. This often leads to panic selling, exacerbating price drops and discounts in the market.

Why is the IFIX index suffering more than the Ibovespa during high interest rates?

The IFIX index is suffering more than the Ibovespa due to the dominance of individual investors in the FII market, who tend to react emotionally in uncertain times. Additionally, the Ibovespa is heavily influenced by commodity stocks, which benefit from currency fluctuations, providing more stability compared to FIIs.

What does a 'price ceiling' mean when evaluating a real estate investment fund?

A price ceiling refers to the maximum price an investor is willing to pay for a fund based on expected dividends and desired returns. This calculation takes into account inflation, risk premiums, and dividend expectations.

How is the price ceiling for an FII like XPML11 determined?

The price ceiling for an FII like XPML11 is calculated by considering the current price of the share, expected dividend payments, inflation adjustments, and a risk premium. For example, using a 2% risk premium, the price ceiling for XPML11 was calculated to be R$ 118.7, significantly higher than its current market price of R$ 97.99.

How does the comparison of FIIs to Treasury IPCA+ bonds help investors make decisions?

By comparing real estate investment funds to Treasury IPCA+ bonds, investors can assess the expected return above inflation. Since FIIs are riskier investments, investors generally expect a higher return (risk premium) than Treasury bonds, making this comparison a helpful tool for setting reasonable return expectations.

Why is the Price to Book Value (P/VP) ratio more useful for evaluating paper-based FIIs than brick-and-mortar FIIs?

The P/VP ratio is more reliable for evaluating paper-based FIIs because their assets (such as bonds or securities) are marked to market regularly, providing a current reflection of their value. For brick-and-mortar FIIs, however, property valuations are done periodically, often annually, and may not accurately reflect the real-time value of the assets.