Why are Excess Deaths Considered as Inconvenient Facts?

Summary

Dr. Philip McMillan discusses the controversial topic of excess deaths related to COVID-19, suggesting that the recent shift in statistical methodology by the UK's Office for National Statistics may be an attempt to downplay the issue. He warns that despite changes in how excess mortality is calculated, the significant rise in economically inactive people due to long-term sickness cannot be ignored. McMillan emphasizes the importance of acknowledging and addressing the potential causes behind these alarming numbers, rather than avoiding the 'elephant in the room,' for the sake of public health and the well-being of the population.

Takeaways

• 📈 Dr. Philip McMillan discusses the topic of excess deaths related to COVID-19, suggesting it's an inconvenient truth that has been largely ignored.
• 🔍 He highlights the potential for a statistical trap in the way excess deaths are being discussed and calculated, cautioning his audience to be aware of this.
• 📉 The UK's Office for National Statistics has changed its methodology for estimating excess deaths, which could affect the interpretation of current trends.
• 🤔 Dr. McMillan questions the timing and rationale behind the change in statistical methods, especially considering the ongoing debate about excess deaths.
• 📅 A comparison of the old and new methods for calculating excess deaths is provided, showing a divergence in the numbers since 2019.
• 📊 The new statistical model is more complex, which could make it difficult for the general public to understand and potentially be used to downplay the issue.
• 😷 There is a noted increase in the number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK, which is a cause for concern.
• 📚 Dr. McMillan is preparing a comprehensive package on general immunity and the immune system's role in COVID-19, particularly concerning cytokine storms.
• 📢 He emphasizes the importance of not ignoring the issue of excess deaths and the need for transparency and acknowledgment to address it properly.
• 👥 The impact of excess deaths is not limited to numbers; it affects friends, family, workers, and co-workers, making it a pressing societal issue.
• ⏳ Dr. McMillan predicts that the current methodologies will have to be changed again within six months due to the persistently high numbers of sick people, indicating that the issue of excess deaths is not going away.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?

The main topic of discussion is the issue of excess deaths related to COVID-19 and the changes in the methodology for estimating excess mortality in the UK.

Who is Dr. Philip McMillan and what is his focus?

Dr. Philip McMillan is a speaker in the transcript who has been discussing COVID-19 since early 2020, with a focus on autoimmunity and raising awareness about important and often overlooked topics related to the disease.

What does Dr. McMillan refer to as the 'elephant in the room'?

The 'elephant in the room' refers to the ignored yet obvious issue of excess deaths potentially linked to COVID-19 policies and their broader health impacts.

What change did the UK's Office for National Statistics make regarding the estimation of excess deaths?

The Office for National Statistics changed the statistical model used to estimate excess deaths, moving from a simple five-year average to a more complex average that accounts for trends in population size, aging, and mortality rates.

Why does Dr. McMillan suggest that the recent decision to debate excess deaths could be a trap?

Dr. McMillan suggests it could be a trap because the new, more complex statistical model may be used to argue that there are no excess deaths, thereby dismissing the need for further investigation or discussion.

What is the 'Frontiers in Immunity' event mentioned by Dr. McMillan?

The 'Frontiers in Immunity' event is part of the advanced COVID-360 presentation series where Dr. McMillan aims to present comprehensive research related to general immunity and the immune system's response to COVID-19.

What does Dr. McMillan believe is the significance of the rising number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK?

Dr. McMillan believes this unprecedented rise indicates a serious issue that needs to be addressed, as it suggests a large number of people are becoming sick, which inevitably leads to excess deaths that cannot be ignored or hidden by methodological changes.

Why does Dr. McMillan think that the issue of excess deaths is not going away?

Dr. McMillan thinks the issue is not going away because the number of people getting sick and dying is high and unprecedented, and it has been rising since 2020, which suggests an ongoing problem that requires acknowledgment and mitigation.

What is the 'debate' that Dr. McMillan anticipates will occur around excess deaths?

The debate Dr. McMillan anticipates will focus on whether the new statistical model accurately represents the current situation regarding excess deaths, and whether the high numbers of economically inactive people due to sickness are related to COVID-19 or other factors.

What is the potential 'trap' Dr. McMillan refers to in the context of the new statistical model for estimating excess deaths?

The potential 'trap' is that the new model could be used to argue that excess deaths are not as high as previously thought, which could be misleading and used to end discussions or avoid addressing the underlying health issues.

Why is Dr. McMillan concerned about the timing of the change in the statistical model for estimating excess deaths?

Dr. McMillan is concerned because the change was made at a time when there is significant public and political scrutiny over excess deaths, which raises questions about the motivations behind the change and whether it is intended to influence the debate.

Outlines

00:00

🤔 The Elephant in the Room: Excess Deaths Debate

Dr. Philip McMillan discusses the controversial topic of excess deaths related to COVID-19, emphasizing the need for transparency and awareness. He highlights the recent shift in the UK's methodology for estimating excess mortality, which has led to a complex statistical model that may be used to downplay the issue. Dr. McMillan warns that despite changes in calculation methods, the underlying problem of excess deaths is not going away and needs to be addressed.

05:01

📉 The Changing Trends and the Potential Trap

The video script details the change in the UK's approach to estimating excess deaths, with a new method introduced in February 2024. This new method has resulted in a different trend compared to the old one, showing a decrease in excess deaths as of March 29, 2024. Dr. McMillan suggests that this could be a trap to dismiss the issue of excess deaths, as the new statistical model makes it difficult for the public to understand and thus, debate. He also raises concerns about the implications of lockdown decisions and their potential contribution to increased sickness and death rates.

10:03

📈 Unprecedented Rise in Economically Inactive Due to Long-Term Sickness

Dr. McMillan presents data from Statista showing a dramatic rise in the number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK, reaching an unprecedented 2.8 million by January 2024. He argues that this indicates a serious issue that needs to be addressed, rather than ignored or dismissed. The speaker calls for acknowledgment and mitigation of the problem, likening the avoidance of addressing excess deaths to ignoring cancer until it's too late to resolve.

Keywords

💡Autoimmunity

Autoimmunity refers to a condition where the immune system mistakenly attacks the body's own cells. In the context of the video, Dr. Philip McMillan discusses how he has been focusing on autoimmunity in relation to COVID-19, indicating the importance of understanding the immune system's role in the disease's pathology.

💡Excess Deaths

Excess deaths refer to the number of deaths above what would be expected based on historical trends. The video discusses the controversy and debate around excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that this is a critical issue that needs to be addressed and not ignored.

💡Statistical Model

A statistical model is a mathematical representation of a real-world process. In the video, Dr. McMillan talks about the changes made to the statistical model used by the UK's Office for National Statistics to estimate excess mortality, which has implications for how excess deaths are calculated and understood.

💡Economically Inactive

Economically inactive refers to individuals who are not currently available for work. The video presents data showing a dramatic rise in the number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK, which is a key concern raised by Dr. McMillan as it indicates a broader health issue that needs attention.

💡Cytokine Storm

A cytokine storm is a potentially deadly immune reaction involving an excessive release of cytokines, which can lead to multi-organ failure. It is mentioned in the context of the immune system's response to COVID-19, emphasizing Dr. McMillan's focus on general immunity in relation to the disease.

💡Lockdowns

Lockdowns are severe restrictions on movement and social interaction implemented to control the spread of a disease. The video suggests that decisions regarding lockdowns may have contributed to excess deaths and other health issues, such as obesity and increased alcohol consumption.

💡Elephant in the Room

The phrase 'elephant in the room' is used to describe an obvious issue that is being ignored or not addressed. In the video, Dr. McMillan uses this metaphor to describe the reluctance to discuss excess deaths, suggesting that it's a significant problem that needs to be acknowledged.

💡Omicron

Omicron is a variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19. The video discusses the impact of the Omicron variant and questions whether it adequately explains the ongoing issues with excess deaths and long-term sickness.

💡Frontiers in Immunity

Frontiers in Immunity is presumably an event or publication that Dr. McMillan is associated with, which is part of the 'advanced COVID-360' presentation. It is mentioned to highlight the comprehensive research being done on immunity and its relevance to COVID-19.

💡Methodological Changes

Methodological changes refer to alterations in the methods or techniques used in a study or analysis. The video discusses how changes in the method for estimating excess deaths in the UK could be a way to manipulate the perception of the issue, which is a point of concern for Dr. McMillan.

💡Mitigation

Mitigation involves taking action to reduce the severity or impact of a problem. In the video, Dr. McMillan argues that acknowledging excess deaths is the first step towards mitigation, suggesting that without recognition, no effective measures can be taken to address the issue.

Highlights

Dr. Philip McMillan discusses the topic of excess deaths related to COVID-19 and the potential for it to be an inconvenient truth globally.

Andrew Bridgend in the UK has been raising awareness about excess deaths, despite facing pushback.

A recent debate around excess deaths was initiated around April 12th, which Dr. McMillan cautions could be a trap.

Frontiers in Immunity is an upcoming presentation by Dr. McMillan, focusing on advanced COVID-360 research and immunity system relevance to COVID-19.

The UK's Office of National Statistics made significant changes to the methodology for estimating excess mortality in February 2024.

The new statistical model for estimating excess deaths is more complex and may be used to downplay the issue.

A comparison between the old and new methods shows a divergence in the number of excess deaths recorded post-2019.

Dr. McMillan questions the timing of the statistical model change amidst ongoing discussions about excess deaths.

The new method shows a current trend where excess deaths are below the expected mortality rate, which could be used to dismiss the issue.

There is a dramatic rise in the number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK, with a peak in January 2024.

Dr. McMillan emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the rise in sickness and the need to understand the underlying causes.

The potential connection between lockdown decisions and the rise in sickness and deaths is a topic that needs further investigation.

The issue of excess deaths is not going away and will likely require new methodologies to be changed again within six months.

Dr. McMillan calls for acknowledgment and mitigation of excess deaths, likening the avoidance to ignoring cancer until it's too late.

The importance of understanding and addressing the health of the population is stressed, rather than avoiding difficult discussions.

Dr. McMillan warns that avoiding the topic of excess deaths will not make the issue disappear and it is crucial for the health of working-age people.

The conclusion is a call to action for leaders to make decisions based on the health interests of the population and not on avoiding controversy.

Transcripts

hi good evening to everyone I'm Dr

Philip McMillan I've been talking about

covid for a while since early 2020

focused on autoimmunity around the

disease I also pick up on important

topics that I think need to be raised to

my subscribers so that they are well

aware of some of the shenanigans

occurring across the world around

covid-19 one one of them is that excess

deaths seems to be an extremely

inconvenient

discussion across the world you find

that many people ignore it because

they're concerned about a potential link

to an elephant in the room I've spoken

about this quite often and I like the

association because what it does is that

it demonstrates that when there is

something really obvious that is ignored

it points to an elephant in the room

knocking over chairs and it needs to be

addressed so what has happened is that

Andrew Bridgend in the UK has continued

to raise awareness on this and he has

been put down on many times about it but

for some reason in the past few weeks it

seems around the 12th of April I think

they decided that they will have a

debate around excess deaths you have to

be careful this could be a trap and you

need to understand what it is that they

are probably planning to do around this

so please be aware so before I start

explaining what I think is happening

I'll give you an important update so

coming up in another few days is

Frontiers in immunity now it doesn't

sound too exciting but it is part of the

advanced covid

360 and this is the presentation that

will represent the second part of this

course that I'm doing where I'm trying

to capture as much of the research that

have done over the past four years and

put it together in a comprehensive

package that's relevant to co9 so even

in in terms of the immunity what I'm

focused on is General immunity and the

immune system that is relevant around

covid-19 especially with regards to the

cyto kind storm so if you want to join

me register at the link below it will be

coming up in just a few days so thank

you very much for that let's get back to

this inconvenient excess deaths debate

what made the politicians changed their

minds you have to wonder why suddenly

have they decided yeah okay let's have

this debate so Andre Bon be prepared

this may be a trap so let's show you

where the Trap has been

laid estimating excess debts in the UK

methodology changes February

2024 and this was about the fact that

the office of uh National statistics

went about making some significant

changes to the way that they looked and

estimated excess mortality they were

pointing out that Trends in population

size aging and mortality rates account

for by the new method for estimating

expected numbers of deaths used in the

calculation of excess mortality so in

effect they came up with a different

statistical model and so instead of the

previous or the current method which

uses a simple five-year average they've

changed it to a much more complex

average that they use to work out excess

deaths now I'm not a statistician but I

can tell you that when I look at the

formula I thought I have no idea what

this is but this is how they calculate

it and it will come up with a number

that is just very complex to understand

but it's probably there for a

statistician and therefore they can use

this to say and discuss about excess

deaths so here is what it looks like in

reality now before I show you the

current Trend you'll have to first see

what happened and they did the new

method for the past as well so this is

what it looks like so here is the in

dark blue is the current method this is

it here and the new method and they've

gone back in time and so zero is where

there are no excess deaths minus meaning

less above meaning higher they were

looking from 2011 all the way to

2019 and you can see here that largely

they trended along but you can start to

see a split out in terms of dark blue so

it was higher using the old method and

lower using the new method up to

2019 so the first good news is that they

have got something here which is a

comparison for the previous times but

again the question is ask well why did

you make this change at this point when

there is a question about ESS deaths so

how does this trend then look when we

look at the current period of time and

again this is here the link is in the

description if you want to see it so

here again this is your zero line going

through this is above this is below and

you can see here in 2020 both spiked

with regards to covid-19 in

2021 around the Delta wave comes down

well no this is probably more the Delta

wave wave then in 2022 it remains above

the zero all the way through and then

based on their blue line they're saying

here that this has now come down below

zero so if you are using the blue line

it's still above and this is the

previous method that was used that was

causing the question around excess death

so this is where I think the Trap has

been laid and one has to think very

carefully as to what is happening so

look at this again so this now is deaths

registered weekly in England and Wales

ending the 29th of March 2024 so this is

just about a couple weeks ago and when

you slide down this here you can now see

what it is that they are doing here so

this is weekly Debs and you can see this

is January

2023 and the blue Mark here represents

the expected deaths so in January 2023

it was above it and then gradually it's

come below it and based on what they can

say excitedly 29th of March

2024 it is based on the new method of uh

calculating it significantly below the

expected mortality this is the

Trap because what they will say when

they come to this meeting is they well

actually there is no excess deaths when

we look at it and look at our

statistical methods that have been

improved excess debts are down so when

you have the debate they can genuinely

say there is nothing to see here that's

the trap now I genuinely don't

understand why they're not concerned

about excess deaths because many of

these people were involved in decisions

with regards to lock Downs is it

possible that that could be a

contributing factor yes maybe it led to

obesity people drinking more um why

wouldn't you want to know that why

wouldn't you want to address it I think

that the issue lies right with the

elephant it seems that

because there was a

mandating around the

elephant if there is an issue everyone

involved in pushing that

through is in theory liable not just

companies but governments individuals

people who promoted it nobody seems to

want to

know I understand that and I can see why

people are anxious but there is a

problem this is not going to go away and

I'll tell you why I say that again I did

this um point a little bit um recently

take a look at this this is from from

statista and this is looking at the

number of economically inactive people

due to long-term sickness in the United

Kingdom and this was up to January

2024 this represents

1993 it went up to a peak here in about

97 stayed there gradually came down to

about here which is

2019 and then it does this dramatic rise

to a level that we have not seen before

and this is in the thousands that is

2.8 million who are economically

inactive we're talking about working

aged people here's the problem there

clearly is something going on so it's

one thing to say that there are no

excess deaths or you arguing that there

are no excess deaths but I'm telling you

there are a lot of people who are sick

and sick people die and based on that

trend

no matter how many methodological

changes that you use you will not be

able to hide this kind of number again

look at it this is

unprecedented we need to understand what

in the world is going on here this

started from 2020 some of it was covid

but beyond that with Omicron that

doesn't make sense and so therefore it

means that there is an issue here that

needs to be addressed as I said to you

there is an elephant here and I I can

understand the reasons why people in

power don't want to consider the

elephant but genuinely if you are

interested in the health of your

population and you are seeing that more

people are getting sick more people are

dying if it could be possible this is a

point I'm not saying it is I'm just

saying if it could be possible that this

is relevant and this is part of the

reason why this is

occurring why would you not want to

know is it more important for people to

save face and to feel safe not caring

because remember you know the people who

are affected here are not just random

people people these are your friends

this is your

family this is your workers your

co-workers why in the world would you

want to ignore that if there is

something that could be

done these are difficult times and as I

said I think that this is a trap they

want to kill this discussion they don't

want it to continue but I'm just warning

them

this is not going to go away within

another few months within six months

those new methodologies will have to be

changed again because the death numbers

are going to be high if many people are

sick just remember this these are

working age people where this is

happening to when this whatever is

causing this occurs in the elderly they

die but in the younger cohort they get

sick

and eventually if you leave it alone

they will die excess deaths is not going

anywhere it needs to be addressed it

needs to be

understood it needs to be acknowledged

because without acknowledgement there is

no opportunity for

mitigation it's like ignoring the

cancer until it is so obvious that it is

visible to

everyone guaranteed it will be too late

to

resolve it's likely to be the same with

regards to excess deaths let's get

people who are truly interested in the

health of their population leading and

making the decisions about the

directions that we take have a great

evening

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