Не инвестируйте в ЭТИ российские акции! / БПН

Summary

In this episode of 'No Bad News,' hosted by Kirill Chuyko on the BCS Investment World channel, the main focus is the stagnation in the market, analyzing strategies for investors to capitalize on the current situation. The program delves into specific investment opportunities, highlighting stocks to consider for selling or reducing stakes in, like Alrosa, OGK-2, and RusHydro, due to various pressures and challenges. Conversely, promising prospects such as Sberbank, Transneft, and metallurgical companies like Severstal, MMK, and NLMK are recommended for their potential growth and dividend yields. The episode also covers viewer questions, market forecasts, and concludes with updates on company news and the anticipation of new IPOs, maintaining an informative and engaging discourse on investment strategies and market insights.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Russian market is range-bound with the MOEX index oscillating around 3,150 points
• 😟 Alrosa and RusHydro stocks are viewed negatively due to various business challenges
• 😊 Sberbank remains a top pick for 2024 with expected 12% dividend yield this year
• 📈Severstal, MMK and NLMK metal stocks offer attractive dividend yields of over 10%
• 😮 Qiwi stock crashed over 20% on news of the company splitting its business
• 🚗 Car sharing leader Delimobil plans to conduct an IPO soon
• 🍾 Vodka producer Kristall also prepares for an IPO in February
• 🛒 Online retailers Ozon and Wildberries named as dominant market players by watchdog
• 📉 European gas prices sink below $300 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since June
• 🛢 Oil prices are pushed higher by geopolitical uncertainty and drawdowns in US inventories

Q & A

Why is the Moscow Exchange Index not growing according to the show?

The Moscow Exchange Index is described as being stuck in a six-month sideways trend, fluctuating around the 3150 point level, which is considered an expected calm period previously outlined in their analytical strategy for 2024.

What does the show suggest investors do when the market is stagnant?

During a stagnant market, the show advises investors to calmly review their portfolio, suggesting it might be a good time to get rid of some stocks or at least reduce their shares, particularly in underperforming companies.

Why is Alrosa considered an outsider by the show's host?

Alrosa is considered an outsider due to the impact of artificial diamonds development and the ongoing decrease in natural diamond prices for almost two years, with a target price of 75 rubles and only about 6% growth potential.

What concerns does the show have about OGK-2 and RusHydro?

The concerns about OGK-2 relate to the expiration of its capacity supply contract (DPM) at the end of 2024, affecting its stock negatively. For RusHydro, large investment projects in the Far East and rising capital expenditures are putting pressure on the company's balance sheet, increasing debt and threatening cash flows.

What makes Sberbank a favorite for investment in 2024 according to the show?

Sberbank is favored due to its status as the largest bank, its technological advancements, and the payment of record dividends. The expected dividend yield for 2023 could be around 12%.

What is expected from Transneft's preferred shares?

A stock split is anticipated for Transneft's preferred shares, which is the main catalyst for the stock. The expected dividend yield is high, around 10-13% for 2023.

Why are metallurgical companies like Severstal, MMK, and NLMK highlighted as favorites?

These metallurgical companies are favorites due to significant price increases since the start of the year, driven by dividend expectations. Severstal, for example, appreciated by 15% with the anticipation of dividend resumptions.

What are the challenges facing Mechel as mentioned in the show?

Mechel faces challenges including discussions by the Ministry of Finance to increase coal taxes and plans by the company's management to spend 20-25 billion rubles on reconstructing coke production in Chelyabinsk.

Why is there a difference in dividend policies between common and preferred shares of companies like Sberbank and Mechel?

According to dividend policies, dividends for preferred shares are obligatory under certain conditions, otherwise, they become voting shares. However, there's no strict obligation for common shares. For Mechel, dividend payments on common shares are expected to resume after 2025 once debt is repaid.

What is the show's view on investing in Alrosa and Rusal while their prices are low?

The show has a negative view on both companies, with Rusal facing losses due to falling aluminum prices and export duties, and Alrosa being considered overpriced relative to its earnings, making them less attractive investments.