Deflasi 5 Bulan Berturut Turut, Daya Beli Turun? - [Zona Bisnis]

Summary

Indonesia has experienced five consecutive months of deflation, starting in May 2024, with September seeing the deepest deflation of 0.12%. Despite this, officials from Bank Indonesia and the government insist the economy remains stable, citing controlled inflation rates within the target range of 2.5% ± 1%. Experts, however, warn that deflation may signal a decline in purchasing power and economic inequality. President Joko Widodo views it as a sign of sufficient food supplies and effective distribution, while Finance Minister Sri Mulyani sees the drop in food prices as positive for consumers, especially lower-income households.

Takeaways

• 📉 Indonesia has experienced deflation for five consecutive months starting from May 2024.
• 🏦 Bank Indonesia and the government argue that this deflation does not indicate economic weakness.
• 📊 Deflation rates have worsened since May, reaching 0.18% in July 2024, with a slight improvement in August, but declining again to 0.12% in September.
• 🔍 Public policy expert Ahmad Nur Hidayat suggests deflation may indicate a decrease in consumer purchasing power and highlight economic inequality.
• 💬 Bank Indonesia's Deputy Governor Juda Agung says that deflation is not necessarily a sign of economic weakness, pointing to inflation stability within their target range of 2.5% ± 1%.
• 🛒 President Joko Widodo notes that deflation reflects stable food supplies and good distribution processes, citing stable or reduced prices for basic food items.
• 🚨 Despite stable inflation, the government is advised to remain cautious about the prolonged deflation trend, especially since the September deflation is the worst in the past five years.
• 😊 Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati views the deflation positively, as it indicates a decline in food prices that had surged the previous year.
• 💡 The government has been working to keep inflation low to preserve consumer purchasing power, particularly among lower-income households.
• 🍽️ Stable or falling food prices are seen as beneficial for consumers, especially in the middle-to-lower economic classes where food expenses form a significant part of their spending.

Q & A

What is the trend in Indonesia's inflation rate over the past five months?

Indonesia has experienced deflation for five consecutive months starting from May 2024.

How did the deflation rates change from May to September 2024?

Deflation rates were 0.03% in May, 0.08% in June, 0.18% in July, 0.03% in August, and 0.12% in September.

Who provided the data on the deflation rates in Indonesia?

The data was provided by the acting head of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Amalia Adininggar Widya Santi.

What is the significance of the five-month deflation period according to public policy and economic expert Ahmad Nur Hidayat?

Ahmad Nur Hidayat views the deflation as an indicator of reduced purchasing power and economic disparity between the upper and lower-middle classes.

What is Bank Indonesia's perspective on the recent deflation trends?

Bank Indonesia believes the deflation does not indicate an economic downturn as inflation has been stable within their target range of 2.5% ± 1%.

What did President Joko Widodo say about the stability of commodity prices?

President Joko Widodo stated that commodity prices are stable and some food prices have even decreased, reflecting adequate supply and good distribution.

What was the reaction of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati to the ongoing deflation?

Sri Mulyani Indrawati was not worried about the deflation, viewing it as a positive indicator of falling food prices, which helps maintain low inflation and boosts consumer purchasing power.

Why does Sri Mulyani Indrawati consider the deflation a positive development?

She considers it positive because the decrease in food prices stabilizes the overall cost of living, especially benefiting lower-income consumers who spend a larger portion of their income on food.

What is the importance of core inflation according to the discussions in the transcript?

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is a crucial indicator for assessing underlying inflation trends and demand levels. Bank Indonesia monitors it closely.

How does the Indonesian government view the need for economic policy changes in response to the deflation?

Both Bank Indonesia and the government believe that no drastic policy changes are needed since the economy remains under control, with stable inflation within the target range.