3-1 NFL Thursday! 15-6 NFL RUN! Sunday NFL Week 5 Picks and Best Bets for October 6th, 2024!

Summary

Zach from 'Being the Odds' presents his NFL best bets for Sunday, October 6, 2024. He recaps Thursday's successful results, where he went 3-1, and provides insights on various NFL matchups, including the Rams vs. Packers, Redskins vs. Browns, and others. He emphasizes betting strategies, including sharp money, public sentiment, and injury reports. Zach also discusses the importance of members-only best bets, urging viewers to join for additional exclusive picks. He ends by highlighting the importance of smart plays and predicting a strong week ahead for NFL betting.

Takeaways

• 😀 The channel host, Zach, reviews NFL betting results from Thursday, mentioning a 3-1 record with notable wins like the Falcons' money line.
• 🏈 Zach emphasizes members-only best bets, including successes in both NFL and college football, and offers a subscription for additional betting picks.
• 📊 He suggests betting on the Rams +3.5 against the Packers, citing injury factors and public betting trends as reasons to pick the Rams.
• 🏟️ The Redskins -2.5 versus the Browns is another pick, with Zach highlighting Cleveland's injury struggles and Washington's stronger roster and coaching.
• 🔥 Zach picks the over 48.5 in the Arizona vs. San Francisco game, citing Arizona's weak defense and the 49ers' improving offensive form.
• 🚀 Broncos -2.5 vs. Raiders is another pick due to Denver’s stronger recent form and the Raiders' internal struggles, including potential player trades.
• 💀 The Dolphins' money line against the Patriots is Zach’s final pick, stating that despite Miami's poor performance on Monday, they should bounce back against the struggling Patriots.
• 💰 Zach promotes his subscription service, where members can access exclusive picks, emphasizing success rates and long-term betting strategies.
• 💡 He expresses confidence in the Washington Redskins' future with a strong leadership team and player roster.
• ⚡ Zach ends by encouraging viewers to sign up for members-only bets and lock in the given picks, promising potential wins.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video?

The main focus of the video is NFL betting, specifically providing 'Best Bets' for the current Sunday games, as well as a recap of previous bets and an overview of current betting strategies.

How did Zach's bets perform on the previous Thursday?

Zach's bets on the previous Thursday performed well, with a 3-1 record. He had success with the Falcons' money line, hitting both of his player prop bets, and only lost on the under bet for the Tampa Bay and Atlanta game.

What does Zach predict for the Rams vs. Packers game?

Zach predicts that the Rams, at +3.5, will cover the spread against the Packers. He notes that public money is heavily on the Packers, which he believes might be a 'trap' by Vegas.

What are Zach’s reasons for betting on the Redskins at -2.5 against the Browns?

Zach is confident in the Redskins because he believes the Browns are dealing with significant injuries and instability. He feels that Washington has a stronger quarterback and coaching staff and will take advantage of Cleveland's weaknesses.

Why does Zach recommend betting the over on the Arizona vs. San Francisco game?

Zach recommends betting the over at 48.5 points because he believes both teams will score heavily. He sees the Cardinals' defense as weak and expects the 49ers' offense, led by a healthy Brock Purdy, to perform well. He also thinks that Kyler Murray’s mobility will challenge the 49ers' defense, which is not as strong as it was last season.

What is Zach’s prediction for the Broncos vs. Raiders game?

Zach predicts that the Broncos will cover the spread at -2.5 against the Raiders. He points to the Raiders’ internal issues, such as trade rumors around Davante Adams, and believes Denver's home advantage and recent wins make them the better pick.

Why does Zach consider the Dolphins' money line a 'disgusting play'?

Zach finds the Dolphins' money line to be a 'disgusting play' because of how badly they performed the previous week. However, he believes they will bounce back strongly against a weak Patriots team, especially since the Patriots have struggled this season and Miami has a history of performing well against them.

What are some of the 'Members Only' bets Zach mentions?

Zach mentions that the 'Members Only' bets include five additional NFL picks and one MLB pick. These bets are exclusive to his website, where subscribers can access these and other perks for $65.

Why does Zach believe the 49ers' defense is vulnerable against the Cardinals?

Zach believes the 49ers' defense is vulnerable because they have not been performing as well as last year, and key player Fred Warner is out. This could allow Arizona, particularly Kyler Murray, to have a more effective offensive game.

What rationale does Zach give for buying down to -2.5 on the Redskins' line?

Zach buys down to -2.5 from -3 to reduce his risk and secure a better position at only -120 odds. He feels the Redskins will still cover this adjusted spread comfortably.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Recap of NFL Best Bets on Thursday and Recent Success

Zach begins the video by welcoming viewers and recapping Thursday's NFL best bets. He highlights a successful 3-1 record, including a thrilling win for the Falcons. Although the under-44.5 bet for the Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta game failed, other props, like Ry McCloud and Mike Evans, were successful. After a rough start in weeks 1 and 2, Zach is now back to breaking even and aiming for 60% win rates. He expresses excitement for Week 5 and promotes his members-only bets.

05:01

🏈 NFL Week 5 Best Bets and Strategy

Zach dives into his picks for NFL Week 5, starting with the Rams +3.5 versus the Packers. He discusses how public betting favors the Packers, but he sees sharp money backing the Rams. Injury factors and home advantage (though diminished by Packers fans in LA) play into his decision. He believes the spread is a trap and recommends backing the Rams. Zach also picks the Redskins -2.5 against the Browns, citing Cleveland's struggles, injuries, and internal turmoil as reasons for his confidence.

🔥 Redskins' Game Strategy and Betting Approach

Zach passionately supports the Redskins' bet, emphasizing the Browns' injuries and instability. He praises the Redskins' improved leadership, including their quarterback and coaching staff. He believes this game could be a pivotal moment for Washington and predicts success against Cleveland's defense, with Terry McLaurin being a key player. He also mentions his decision to buy down the spread to -2.5 for better value.

📈 High-Scoring Game Prediction for Cardinals vs. 49ers

Zach shifts to the Arizona vs. San Francisco game, recommending betting on the over 48.5 points. He discusses the Cardinals' poor defense and how the 49ers' offense, led by Brock Purdy, is thriving despite injuries. He believes both teams will score heavily. Fred Warner's absence from the 49ers defense is highlighted as a key factor, which could allow the Cardinals, particularly Kyler Murray, to perform better. Zach predicts an up-and-down, high-scoring game.

🤢 Broncos vs. Raiders: Betting on a Messy Game

Zach calls the Broncos vs. Raiders game 'gross' but recommends Broncos -2.5. He points out the Raiders' chaos, including rumors surrounding Davante Adams' potential trade and team injuries. Zach praises the Broncos' recent form, noting their back-to-back wins and home-field advantage at Mile High. He expects Denver to win comfortably due to their superior coaching, quarterback play, and overall momentum.

🐬 Betting on a Dolphins Bounce Back Against the Patriots

Zach concludes with a surprising bet: Dolphins money line against the Patriots. He acknowledges how bad the Dolphins were in their previous game but expects a strong recovery. He criticizes the Patriots as the worst team in the NFL, especially with their struggling offensive line and quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Zach is confident that the Dolphins, led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, will dominate, citing their historical success against the Patriots.

💼 Promoting Members-Only Bets for Maximum Gains

In the final section, Zach promotes his members-only picks, highlighting five NFL bets and one MLB bet available on his website. He encourages viewers to join and take advantage of the successful betting streak. He ends by urging everyone to lock in their picks and join him in making money together.

Keywords

💡Best Bets

In sports betting, 'Best Bets' refer to the most confident wagers that bettors believe have the highest chance of success. In the context of the video, Zach shares his top NFL picks for Sunday, explaining that these are well-researched and backed by analysis. For example, he emphasizes how his members-only Best Bets have been particularly successful, such as the Falcons money line win.

💡Members Only

'Members Only' refers to exclusive content or services provided to paying subscribers. In the video, Zach frequently mentions his 'Members Only Best Bets,' which are available on his website for subscribers. He highlights how these picks have been performing well, including a 3-1 record in college football, and encourages viewers to join for access to more exclusive predictions.

💡Sharp Money

'Sharp Money' refers to bets made by professional or highly experienced bettors, often indicating where the 'smart money' is going. In the video, Zach refers to the 'sharp money' being on the Rams against the Packers, suggesting that professional gamblers see value in betting on the Rams, despite public perception favoring the Packers.

💡Public Betting

Public betting refers to where the majority of casual bettors place their money, often influenced by team popularity or recent performance. Zach discusses how the public is heavily betting on the Packers, making them a 'sucker bet,' and contrasts this with his decision to follow the 'sharp money' on the Rams, which he believes is the smarter choice.

💡Injury Report

The 'Injury Report' in sports is a crucial factor in betting decisions, as it lists players who are injured and may not play. Zach frequently refers to the injury situations for both the Rams and Packers, as well as other teams, such as the absence of Fred Warner from the 49ers, which influences his prediction for the Arizona-San Francisco game.

💡Vegas Trap

A 'Vegas Trap' refers to a situation where the betting line seems too good to be true, tempting casual bettors into making a poor decision. Zach describes the Rams vs. Packers game as a potential Vegas trap, where the line favors the Packers, but he believes the spread is set up to lure bettors into a bad wager, encouraging his audience to bet on the Rams instead.

💡Over/Under

The 'Over/Under' is a bet on whether the combined score of two teams in a game will be above or below a specified total. Zach discusses his bet on the 'Over 48.5' in the Arizona vs. San Francisco game, analyzing both teams' offensive and defensive performances, including how the 49ers’ defense is weakened without Fred Warner, making the over a more attractive bet.

💡Point Spread

The 'Point Spread' is a handicap given to one team in betting to level the playing field. In the video, Zach references several point spreads, including the Rams being underdogs at +3.5 and his decision to take the Redskins at -2.5. He explains how the point spread reflects Vegas’ expectations of a close game and uses this to justify his picks.

💡Money Line

A 'Money Line' bet is a wager on which team will win the game outright, without any point spread. Zach talks about taking the Dolphins money line against the Patriots, indicating his belief that the Dolphins will win the game straight up, despite their recent poor performance. He contrasts this with point spread bets, where the margin of victory matters.

💡Momentum

'Momentum' in sports refers to the perceived swing in confidence or performance a team has after a series of successful or unsuccessful games. Zach highlights how teams like the Broncos are riding high after consecutive wins, which influences his confidence in betting on them to continue their streak, as well as how he expects teams like the Dolphins to bounce back from recent losses.

Highlights

Recap of Thursday's results: 3-1, Falcons Money Line win, Ry McLoud over 34.5 receiving yards win, Mike Evans over 4.5 catches win.

Members-only best bets have been performing well, now back to 500 after a rough NFL week 1 and week 2.

The Rams +3.5 versus the Packers is the first best bet, sharp money is on the Rams, indicating a potential trap for the public.

Washington Redskins -2.5 versus Browns is a homer pick, based on Cleveland's injuries and dysfunction.

Analysis of Washington's team improvement under new leadership, including optimism for long-term success.

Over 48.5 points for Arizona vs. San Francisco, based on Arizona's weak defense and the 49ers' offensive strength.

Brock Purdy's performance for the 49ers has been strong, even without key offensive weapons in previous games.

Broncos -2.5 versus Raiders, based on Denver's momentum from recent wins and the Raiders' instability.

Devonte Adams trade rumors and Raiders' issues influencing the bet against them.

Dolphins Money Line versus Patriots, betting on Dolphins bouncing back after a poor Monday night game.

Patriots' offensive line struggles and lack of talent contributing to belief in Dolphins' easy win.

Historical analysis: Dolphins have dominated the Patriots over the last decade, even during Tom Brady's tenure.

ZDM Bets offers members-only best bets, with five NFL and one MLB pick for October 6th.

Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and other key Dolphins players expected to help secure a win against the Patriots.

Patriots' quarterback situation and offensive woes seen as major factors leading to predicted Dolphins victory.

Transcripts

Hello everybody welcome back to being

the odds it is Sunday October 6 2024 we

are back with our NFL Best Bets of the

day if you're new to the channel my name

is Zach and welcome to be Ys let's recap

Thursday's results so Thursday we a

great day went 3 in one Thursday members

only best bet Falcons money line that

was a win absolutely unbelievable game

wave of emotions especially on Twitter

um but hell an absolute hell of a win uh

for the Falcons and for us on members

only Best Bets under 44 and half tan B

Atlanta that was Dead on Arrival I mean

oh my God that was Dead on Arrival then

we had we hit both props Ry McLoud over

34 and a half receding yards win and

then Mike Evans was basically free money

we had over four and a half catches with

him I think we got that one in the third

quarter and after a disastrous and I

mean disastrous week one and week two of

the NFL season we're back to 500 and

we're back on the road to 60% like we

are with every other Sport and I'm

really excited to get back in the win

column today and we have a massive week

five in the NFL massive week five and

we've got six plays I mean five plays

I'm going to give you guys here on

YouTube uh we also have five members

only Best Bets in the NFL plus MLB

members only Best Bets so six in total

you can get all those at zdm bets.com

the website is linked in the pin comment

below six plays $65 get all the perks

and keep on winning cuz we've been

absolutely hammering members only three

in one in college football yesterday um

we've just been me for members only

excuse me 7 and3 overall having a great

members only season um but we have like

I said five plays I want to give you

guys here on YouTube today let's get

started with our first play which is

going be Rams plus three and a half

versus the Packers um first off the

sharp money's on the Rams this game is

stinky as hell the public is I mean they

are hammering the Packers every sucker

their mothers on the Packers here today

now granted listen the Packers I mean

they look good in the second half

against the Vikings but you could also

make a case that the Vikings took their

foot off the gas uh which is very very

possible and on top of that I don't know

if Jordan love trust his knee yet the

Rams are at home like kind of cuz again

like they're in La so they're not really

at home cu the Packers are going to take

over that stadium for sure but this just

makes I mean given where the Rams are

injury-wise and where the Packers are

injury wise I thought this game would be

more like a 5 and a half six point

spread the fact only three and a half

tells me that I think Vegas is laying a

trap for the public I'm rolled the Rams

plus three and a half versus the Packers

here today uh just off of where the

Public's going alone next going to the

Redskins minus 2 and a half versus the

Browns this is a complete Homer pi I'm

aware of that I don't give a

because it's going to win the fact is

the brown this brown team is ravaged by

injuries and Deshawn Watson's the

quarterback and amario Cooper wants out

and Nick chub isn't playing this is not

this is not a fair fight and the fact is

that Cleveland is a complete and utter

mess they look like my Redskins have

looked for the last 25 years just a

complete mess up and down up and down

they they look horrible um and listen

Cleveland plays a lot of manto man that

should feed right into King Cliff uh

Cliff cliff Cliff kingsberry system um

they're going to do a lot of Crossing

mesh patterns that are going to they're

going to pick off the Cleveland

Defenders they're going to run a lot of

go balls and if you put Terry mclen

one-on-one he's going to win that nine

out of 10 times he's an absolute dog and

Wasing him for the first time we have

like in my first time in my adult life

there's real optimism we've got a real

quarterback like we've got a real like

general manager and a real Coach a real

OC like like adults in the room it's

absolutely beautiful to see I think this

game is going to be a game where we look

back on in like at least Redskins lore

it's going to look like the 2012 season

in the stands where it's just packed

with nothing but skins fans There's real

optimism um and you know hopefully this

doesn't fall apart on our fans while

there but the fact is that Washington

we're at home we have the better

quarterback better coaching staff better

everything give me the Skins minus t out

versus the Browns now by the way I a lot

of books this is minus three I just

bought down Aus 2 and half cuz it's

only- 120 so that's well worth buying at

a half a point give me the Skins minus

two this game will be close by the way

this game will be close cuz that's just

what we that's what the Skins do but I'm

rolling with them here at minus 2 and a

half next go the over 48 and a half

Arizona and San Francisco Arizona's

defense is so bad they have no Talent

whatsoever on that side of the ball

while the Niners are while the Niners um

are offense is looking really good uh

Brock p is playing the best he's ever

play like that is that that is without

question he is playing I think he's

playing really really well um he's

throwing the ball down the field a lot

and he looked good without weapons I

mean like when he when Joan Jennings was

his number one receiver basically he

looked good which is which is a very

very big um a very very nice thing to

see for 49ers like front office in

particular um and plus George KD's back

um Debo's back they're going to have auk

Jawan Jennings looks great Jordan Mason

can fill the role uh right now while

McCaffrey's out um but the Niners

offensively is they're in a really good

position now the 49ers defensively are

not they do not look the same as last

year they look worse um and on top of

that Fred Warner is not going to play

and he's by I think I think he's the

best defensive player in football that

includes miles Garrett that includes TJ

watt like Fred Warner is a beast

if he's not top he's not number one he's

like top three at least and he's not

playing today which is obviously huge

for the Cardinals because they'll be

able to run the ball better with him not

in the middle if Trey McBride plays he's

going to have a better matchup and I

just really think Kyler is going to be

able to have success against te because

he's had success against the Niners in

the past offensively Maybe not winning

all those games but offensively he's

played unbelievably well and on top of

that he's a mobile quarterback that

gives good defenses trouble and the

Niners aren't as good as last year's

defense but they are still a really good

defense so I think this game's a really

high-scoring game I think it's an up and

down game the spread's a little weird to

me with a S and a half but I love the

over 48 and2 uh Arizona and San

Francisco next we the Broncos minus 2

and a half versus the Raiders uh this

game is gross um but the Raiders are a

complete mess very similar to Cleveland

um with the Adam you know with with with

Devonte Adam trade rumors he's gone by

the way like he's going to go I think

skinu try to get him but you know that's

just me being a fan uh Crosby Still out

Denver's at home coming off a nice win

against the Jets or gay law momentum

they smoked the Bucks as well which I

mean that's that's saying something the

Bucks are actually playing very well um

and the Broncos have the better coach

and quarterback and weapons um in this

spot plus they're at home in Mile High

coming off two wins so the home crowd's

going to be rabid I think the Broncos

win this game very comfortably and they

win this by game by 7 to 10 points we'll

see how how resilient this Raiders team

is but again they all they did was just

beat Cleveland last week and Cleveland

sucks so give me Broncos minus 2 and a

half versus the Raiders here today in a

divisional

matchup and then y'all we're going to go

with the most disgusting play that I've

had I think this entire NFL season this

game grosses me out more than any game I

have ever seen in my entire life and

it's going to be the Dolphins money line

right now versus the Patriots the

Dolphins are minus one versus the Pats

they got blown they got the doors blown

off them on Monday we had the Titans by

win that game plus two and a half they

were so bad and they're going to win

this game today and they're going to win

it comfortably the Patriots are the

worst team in the NFL there's no reason

on planet Earth this spread should be

this close even with Tyler Huntley as

quarterback they are so bad and the

dolphins with how bad they sucked on

Monday this is just they are due for a

bounceback here um especially being that

that embarrassing be on national

television and plus Tyler Huntley has

another opportunity well another week

excuse me to learn the Playbook get

plays he also got his first reps last

week he's going to play way better now

and by the way the dolphin still have

Tyreek Hill they still have Jaylen Wadd

they still have Devon aan they still

have really good players on the outside

I think that they can win this game by a

billion especially with the Patriots o

line being horrible I mean horrible

jacobe prette is is not is not a

starting quarterback in this league and

by the way for the record the Patriots

should not start Drake May under any

circum understand it's given how bad

this Patriots offensive line is cu

they're just going to kill him it's

going to be a Patrick Ramsey um David

Carr type deal where they just ruin a

good quarterback because they can't

protect him um they don't have any

weapons really on the outside with your

best weapon I think it's I don't even

know who their best weapon would be in

this specific maybe Demario Douglas I

mean that's a brutal brutal brutal

support system for a quarterback um and

the Dolphins historically the last 10

years have really actually owned the

Patriots and that's with Tom Brady

playing and I guarantee job per is not

Tom Brady so give me the Dolphins money

line this game is gross as but

we're going to take a win from it it's

give me the Dolphins m versus the Pats

now guys just so you all know all the

big games we have a members only not

because we own HDE them it's because

they're my favorite plays of the day you

all our members only Best Bets five of

them for NFL won the MLB you go to zdm

bets.com pii the website is linked in

the comments below but guys go lock in

those picks let's go win together it's

going to make some money I'll see you

all tomorrow