Investidor olha Oriente Médio e aguarda ansioso por Payroll: Minuto Touro de Ouro

Summary

The video discusses a calm day for global stock markets after a sharp drop due to Middle East conflicts. U.S. job data is anticipated, with expectations of 150,000 jobs created in September. The outcome may influence interest rate cuts, with 70% predicting a 25 basis point cut in November. If more jobs are added, the dollar may rise, but fewer jobs could increase the chances of a larger cut, causing the dollar to fall. Other updates include oil prices rising and Bitcoin at $61,300. The speaker also promotes an educational investment game for kids.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Global markets are calm this Friday, with slight positive trends: +0.2% in the US and +0.2% in Europe, after a sharp drop yesterday due to the escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts.
• 📉 Investors are awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll (employment data) to assess the labor market's condition and its potential impact on monetary policy.
• 👷‍♂️ The US labor market is cooling down and is no longer overheating, which raises questions about whether the US economy can achieve a 'soft landing' or will enter a recession next year.
• 📊 Expectations are that 150,000 jobs were created in the US in September, and this data will influence the market's outlook on interest rate cuts.
• 💸 The CME Group’s current betting odds for the November 7th FOMC meeting are divided: 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut and 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
• 💹 If more than 150,000 jobs were created, a 25 basis point rate cut becomes more likely, which could lead to a rise in the dollar. If fewer jobs were created, the likelihood of a larger rate cut increases, which might weaken the dollar.
• 🛢️ Oil prices rose 1.3% today, trading at $78.65, after surging 5% yesterday when President Joe Biden mentioned that Israel could potentially target Iran’s oil industry.
• 💰 Bitcoin is trading at $61,300 amid overall market calmness.
• 🇨🇳 Iron ore markets are currently closed due to a holiday in China.
• 🎲 Promotion of the financial education game 'Bolsa' by Pablo: the game teaches mathematical thinking and investment concepts, and is recommended as a Children's Day gift.

Q & A

What is the general mood of the global stock markets mentioned in the report?

The global stock markets are calm and slightly positive, with a 0.2% increase in both the United States and Europe, following a significant drop the previous day due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East.

What key economic data is expected to be released in the United States, and why is it significant?

The employment report (payroll data) for September is expected to be released, which is significant because it will provide insights into whether the U.S. labor market is cooling down. The report is crucial for predicting whether the U.S. economy will achieve a 'soft landing' or enter a recession next year.

How many jobs are expected to have been created in the U.S. in September, according to the report?

The expectation is that 150,000 jobs were created in September.

How does the U.S. employment report affect interest rate expectations?

If more than 150,000 jobs were created, there will likely be a 25 basis point interest rate cut. However, if fewer jobs were created, there will be increased expectations of a larger interest rate cut, which could weaken the dollar.

What is the current status of the U.S. dollar index (DXY), according to the report?

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is calm, dropping slightly by 0.1%, and is hovering near the 0% mark.

What is the current price movement of oil, and what caused a recent surge in prices?

Oil prices are up by 1.3%, currently at $78.65. Yesterday, oil prices surged by 5% after U.S. President Joe Biden suggested that Israel could attack Iran’s oil industry.

What is the status of iron ore trading, and why?

Iron ore trading is currently closed because of a public holiday in China.

What is the current price of Bitcoin mentioned in the report?

Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,300.

What event in Brazil is highlighted, and what is its significance?

Brazil's central bank is meeting with economists, and the country's trade balance report is set to be released. These events are important for assessing Brazil’s economic outlook.

What promotional message is included at the end of the transcript?

The speaker promotes a game called 'Bolsa,' which teaches children about investment products and mathematical thinking. It is available on their website with a 50% discount using the voucher code 'bolsa 50'. The game is also seen as a way to reduce screen time for children and bring families together.