Why Countries Natural Increase Rates Grow/Shrink [AP Human Geography Unit 2 Topic 4] (2.4)

Summary

This video from the Mr. Sin channel explores population dynamics, specifically covering key concepts like crude birth and death rates (CBR and CDR), natural increase rate (NIR), infant mortality rate (IMR), and total fertility rate (TFR). It highlights how factors such as healthcare, education, government policies, and economic conditions influence population growth. The video also touches on environmental impacts and the importance of understanding doubling time for effective planning. Viewers are introduced to essential terminology and concepts to prepare for deeper discussions in future lessons, including the demographic and epidemiological transition models.

Takeaways

• 📊 **Crude Birth Rate (CBR)**: The number of live births per year per thousand people.
• 💀 **Crude Death Rate (CDR)**: The number of deaths per year per thousand people.
• 🌱 **Natural Increase Rate (NIR)**: The difference between CBR and CDR, indicating population growth or decline.
• 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 **Replacement Rate**: A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 is needed for a population to replace itself without immigration.
• 📉 **Total Fertility Rate (TFR)**: Average number of children per woman, reflecting family sizes.
• 👶 **Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)**: Number of deaths of children under one per thousand live births.
• 🏛️ **Social Factors**: Access to wealth and healthcare can lower IMR and CDR, affecting population dynamics.
• 🏫 **Education**: Greater educational opportunities can lead to lower TFR and smaller family sizes.
• 🏦 **Political Policies**: Governments can influence population growth through pro-natalist and anti-natalist policies.
• 🌾 **Economic Factors**: Agricultural societies tend to have larger families due to the need for farm labor.
• 🌍 **Environmental Factors**: Resource availability and environmental conditions can impact family planning decisions.

Q & A

What is the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and how is it calculated?

The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) measures how many people are born in a given year. It is calculated by taking the number of live births in a year and dividing it by 1,000 people.

What is the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and how is it calculated?

The Crude Death Rate (CDR) measures how many people die in a given year. It is calculated by taking the number of deaths in a year and dividing it by 1,000 people.

How is the Natural Increase Rate (NIR) or Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) determined?

The Natural Increase Rate (NIR) or Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) is calculated by subtracting the Crude Death Rate (CDR) from the Crude Birth Rate (CBR). A positive number indicates population growth, while a negative number indicates population decline.

What factors are excluded when calculating the Natural Increase Rate (NIR)?

The NIR only considers natural births and deaths. It excludes factors like immigration, emigration, or migration, which can affect overall population growth.

What are some social factors that influence a country's natural birth rate?

Social factors like access to healthcare, education, and employment opportunities can influence natural birth rates. For example, better healthcare can lower infant mortality, while increased education and job opportunities for women often result in smaller family sizes.

What is the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and how is it calculated?

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) measures how many children die before reaching the age of one. It is calculated by taking the number of deaths of children under one year of age and dividing it by 1,000 live births.

What is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and why is it significant?

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. It is significant because it indicates family sizes and helps predict population growth. A TFR below 2.1 indicates that the population is not replacing itself.

What is the replacement rate and why is it important?

The replacement rate is the TFR needed for a population to maintain its current size, typically 2.1. If a country's TFR falls below this rate, its population will begin to shrink unless supplemented by immigration.

How do economic factors impact population growth?

Economic factors such as the shift from subsistence agriculture to urbanization can reduce family sizes. In agricultural economies, larger families are needed for farm labor, while in urbanized areas, children become more costly and less economically beneficial.

What is doubling time, and why is it important for societies to monitor?

Doubling time refers to the number of years it takes for a population to double in size. Monitoring this is important because it helps governments and societies plan for future needs, such as infrastructure, resources, and services.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Introduction to Population Dynamics and Key Metrics

In this section, the video introduces population dynamics, specifically focusing on concepts like crude birth rate (CBR), crude death rate (CDR), and natural increase rate (NIR). The CBR refers to the number of live births per 1,000 people in a given year, while the CDR looks at deaths per 1,000 people. The NIR is the difference between the CBR and CDR, showing whether a population is growing or shrinking. It is emphasized that NIR only accounts for natural births, excluding immigration or migration. Even if a country has a negative NIR, its population could still grow through immigration.

05:01

📉 Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Population Growth

Here, the focus shifts to the various socioeconomic factors that influence natural birth rates. These include healthcare advancements, education, and workforce participation, particularly among women. As societies become wealthier and provide better healthcare, infant mortality rates (IMR) and crude death rates (CDR) tend to decline. With higher education and job opportunities, total fertility rates (TFR) also decrease as families become smaller. The IMR is defined as the number of children who die before their first birthday per 1,000 live births. Higher IMR often correlates with higher TFR, as families expect some children to die.

Keywords

💡Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) refers to the number of live births in a given year per 1,000 people. It is used to measure the birth rate of a population. In the video, this metric is explained as a basic way to understand population dynamics by showing how many people are born within a year in a given society.

💡Crude Death Rate (CDR)

Crude Death Rate (CDR) represents the number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people. It complements the CBR and helps track mortality within a population. The video explains it as a key indicator to determine whether a population is shrinking or growing based on how many people die in a year.

💡Natural Increase Rate (NIR)

Natural Increase Rate (NIR) is calculated by subtracting the CDR from the CBR. It shows whether a population is growing or shrinking, excluding migration. The video emphasizes that the NIR only looks at natural births and deaths, highlighting its use in assessing population trends without factoring in immigration or emigration.

💡Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) measures the number of deaths of infants under one year of age per 1,000 live births. It is a critical indicator of a society's healthcare and living conditions. In the video, the IMR is discussed in relation to family size, as societies with high IMR tend to have higher birth rates to compensate for expected infant deaths.

💡Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime. It is an important metric for understanding family size and population growth. The video connects TFR to societal development, explaining how as societies gain wealth and education, the TFR tends to decrease, leading to smaller family sizes.

💡Replacement Rate

The Replacement Rate is the average number of children a woman must have to maintain a population's current size, which is typically 2.1. The video highlights that if the TFR drops below this rate, a population will decline unless compensated by immigration. This is critical for understanding population sustainability.

💡Pro-natalist Policies

Pro-natalist policies are government strategies designed to encourage people to have more children, often through incentives like tax breaks or free child care. The video mentions these policies in the context of political factors influencing population growth, as some governments actively promote larger families to increase population.

💡Anti-natalist Policies

Anti-natalist policies aim to reduce birth rates and limit population growth. These might include propaganda campaigns or laws discouraging large families. The video explains that such policies are used by governments to manage overpopulation and its associated challenges, emphasizing their impact on population dynamics.

💡Doubling Time

Doubling Time refers to the time it takes for a population to double in size at its current growth rate. The video explains its importance for governments to anticipate and plan for future population changes. A fast doubling time can strain resources if a country is unprepared for rapid growth.

💡Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a theoretical model that describes how birth and death rates change as a society develops. The video introduces this model as a key topic in understanding population changes over time, with future lessons planned to explore its stages and significance in more detail.

Highlights

Introduction to population dynamics and review of previous topic, including population pyramids, sex ratios, and dependency ratios.

Explanation of crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR), including definitions and calculations.

Definition of natural increase rate (NIR) and how to calculate it using CBR and CDR, with emphasis on its exclusion of migration.

Impact of social factors such as wealth, healthcare access, and education on population growth, leading to reduced infant mortality rates and smaller family sizes.

Introduction to infant mortality rate (IMR) and total fertility rate (TFR), including their definitions and significance in understanding family size trends.

Correlation between high IMR and high TFR, with an explanation of why families in high-IMR societies often have more children.

Explanation of the replacement rate (2.1) and its importance in maintaining population stability.

Discussion on pro-natalist and anti-natalist government policies and their role in influencing population growth.

Political stability's influence on birth rates, highlighting how uncertainty and safety concerns impact family planning.

Economic factors affecting population growth, particularly the difference between agricultural economies and urbanized societies in terms of family size.

Influence of urbanization on family size, with children becoming more of an economic burden in cities compared to rural areas.

Environmental factors influencing family size, including subsistence agriculture, desertification, and resource depletion.

Impact of environmental factors on family planning within cities, such as school districts, available resources, and neighborhood safety.

Introduction to doubling time and its importance for societies in understanding and planning for population growth.

Preview of the next video covering the demographic transition model and the epidemiological transition model, emphasizing their significance in understanding population dynamics.

Transcripts

hey there geographers and welcome back

to the mr sin channel today we're going

to be going into

topic 4 of unit 2. we're going to be

looking at population dynamics now

last time we talked about 2.3 where we

looked at population pyramids

sex ratios dependency ratios and

population composition in general

and now we're going to be expanding on a

lot of those concepts and ideas now

before we go into all the different

reasons why we see natural bursts go up

or down we have to talk about some

terminology

the first term you're going to have to

know is crude birth rate also known as

the cbr

what this is looking at just how many

people are born in a given year

to find it what we're going to do is

take the amount of live births in a year

and divide it by a thousand people we

also have our crude death rate or cdr

and you can probably guess it deals with

how many people are dying in a year

and just like our cbr we're going to

calculate it pretty similar

we're going to take the amount of people

who died in a given year and divide it

by a thousand people next we have our

natural increase rate or

nir now sometimes this will also be

shown to you as

rni which would stand for rate of

natural increase

now what we're talking about here is

essentially how much is society growing

to find this we're going to take our cbr

and we're going to minus our cdr

if this is a positive number it shows

that our society is growing

if it is a negative number it shows our

population is actually shrinking now i

want to highlight that the nir is only

looking at natural birth so we're not

factoring in

immigration emigration or migration

we're only looking at the natural births

that are occurring

in the country so that's important to

note because if a country has a negative

nir

they still overall could be growing as a

population

if they have a lot of immigrants coming

into the country the real question is

now

why do some countries see their natural

births go up while

others see their natural births go down

to answer this question we could look at

social factors we could look at how

society develops and as they gain more

access to wealth

they're able to get better health care

they're able to have more access to

medicine and treatments that can lower

a society's imr and also its cdr or we

could look at education as societies

give more opportunities for both men and

women

more people gain access to higher paying

jobs and can participate

more in society this would lower the tfr

as now women are actually participating

in the workforce

and have less time to have kids so our

family sizes start to decrease

and our population growth rate goes down

with it so i just mentioned the imr and

tfr and these are important concepts to

understand

the imr is the infant mortality rate and

it's a sad metric

it looks at the amount of children who

die before they get past the age of one

to find this what we would do is take

the amount of deaths of children under

one

and divide it by a thousand live births

the tfr on the other hand stands for our

total fertility rate here we're taking

the average amount of babies and

dividing it by women this shows us

on average how many kids are women

having

and that also shows us our family sizes

when this number is going down that

means our family sizes are decreasing

when the number's higher we're having

larger families societies that have a

high imr

oftentimes are going to have a higher

tfr this is because women are going to

be having more children

expecting some of them to die so they'll

have a family of eight and maybe only

expect

six to unfortunately live this impacts

population growth significantly

especially as we start to see society

develop

but we're going to go into that more in

our next video when we talk about the

demographic transition model now before

we go back into the other reasons why we

see population growth change i want to

highlight one more thing with our total

fertility rate

and that's the replacement rate for

society actually keep its current

population

we have to have a tfr of 2.1 this is the

replacement rate

if we are seeing our tfr drop below

there we're actually going to see our

population

decrease we're not having enough

children to be able to make up for our

current population

if we're above 2.1 well we're going to

start to see some population grow

politically we can look at how the

government changes population growth by

implementing pro-natalist and

anti-natalist policies

these are policies we'll cover in depth

in 2.7 but

these policies have a big influence some

governments actually will pay for all

the child care

they'll offer tax incentives to families

for having kids

while others will put laws in place to

prevent larger families

or use propaganda to manipulate people

to try and convince them to

decrease their family sizes all of these

can change the growth rate of a society

another political factor that could

impact population growth could actually

be just stability

if you're living in an area where you

don't feel safe if you feel like there's

a lot of uncertainty

you're less likely to have more children

because you won't feel like it's a good

environment to be able to bring up kids

in

when looking at economics we can see a

bunch of different factors as well that

influence our population growth

for example societies that are

developing and have more of an

agricultural based economy

where we see a lot of people working in

subsistence agriculture

are going to have larger family sizes

that's because the families need help on

the farm and so they have larger

families to be able to support it

however as we see countries develop and

we see more people

move to the cities and we have more

urbanization occur well we start to see

family sizes go down

children are no longer as economically

advantageous and they actually cost a

lot of money in the city

so we start to see changes the family

size gets smaller you don't need to have

a large family to help you out as much

and now too just living in the city has

other costs and you're probably also now

focused on other careers

so you have less time for larger

families lastly we could talk about

environmental factors for example

some societies are still in subsistence

agriculture and they rely

heavily on the land around them to be

able to feed themselves and to be able

to provide for their family

and they have those larger families like

we already talked about to be able to

help around the farm well if we're

starting to see more desertification and

more depletion of the natural resources

that's going to put more of a strain and

burden on the farmers and the people

living in these societies to get enough

food

so sometimes we start to see families

actually having more kids so they have

more help around the home

to be able to get food and to be able to

support the family

the issue there is it creates a cycle

then where now we're taking more out of

the land

and depleting the resources at a faster

rate but we could also look at too

just the environment within a

neighborhood or a city families will

look around them before having kids

do i have the right school district for

my child do i have resources to support

them is there enough room for them to go

outside and play

all of these things would get factored

in for the decision of families and it

all impacts our population growth now we

only just started to scratch the surface

on for all the different reasons why

population growth changes

and before we wrap this up i want to

make sure you understand one more

concept and that's

doubling time doubling time is the

amount of time it would take for a

population to double

this is important for societies to focus

on because if they don't understand

what's happening with their population

growth

they're not going to be able to plan

accordingly and they're going to run

into some pretty big

issues countries need to study what's

happening with the demographics in their

country

so they can better make decisions on how

to address the needs and wants of their

people so that about does it for 2.4 now

next time we're going into 2.5 and

i can't stress this enough it's going to

be a huge video now hopefully not in

length but in

content we're going to be going into the

demographic transition model

and the epidemiological transition model

these are

so important for this unit and this

entire class so make sure you subscribe

so you get notified when that video goes

live

also if you need help with reviewing any

of these concepts make sure you check

out the ultimate review packet

it'll help you get an a in your class

and a five on that national exam

all right that's all the time we have

for today i'm mr sin

and until next time geographers i'll see

you online

[Music]

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