FRANCE | An African Defeat?
Summary
TLDRDepuis une décennie, la France combat des insurgés islamistes dans la région du Sahel en Afrique, mais elle fait face à des difficultés croissantes. Malgré les efforts militaires, le conflit semble perdu et la France est tiraillée entre poursuivre son engagement coûteux ou se retirer. La situation est aggravée par les tensions politiques locales, les coups d'État au Mali et au Burkina Faso, et l'influence croissante de la Russie via le groupe Wagner. Ce dilemme soulève des questions sur l'avenir de la présence française et des efforts internationaux dans cette région instable.
Takeaways
- 🇫🇷 La France a lutté pendant une décennie contre l'insécurité islamiste au Sahel, mais la situation devient de plus en plus difficile.
- 🔍 L'opération française au Sahel est entravée par la tension croissante avec les pays de la région et un choix difficile se pose.
- 🏜️ Le Sahel est une région semi-aride d'Afrique, couvrant environ 3 millions de kilomètres carrés et comptant une population de 90 millions d'habitants.
- 🕋 L'histoire du Sahel a été largement influencée par l'islam, qui est la religion principale depuis le 14e siècle.
- 🇲🇱 La crise a commencé à Mali avec la montée des groupes islamistes et séparatistes touaregs, entraînant un coup d'État militaire en 2012.
- 🔄 L'intervention française, initialement sous forme d'opérations Serval puis Barkhane, a tenté de lutter contre l'insécurité, mais sans succès total.
- 🗓️ Depuis 2014, l'opération Barkhane a été mise en place avec 3 000 troupes françaises pour travailler avec les forces de sécurité des cinq États du Sahel.
- 📉 Malgré des efforts pour la paix et la réduction de la violence, l'insécurité au Sahel a empiré, entraînant des milliers de morts et des millions de déplacés.
- 💶 Le coût de l'intervention française est élevé, s'élevant à environ un milliard d'euros par an.
- 🤝 L'entrée en scène de la Task Force Takuba, avec la participation de plusieurs pays européens, montre une tentative de l'internationalisation du conflit.
- 🏛️ Les coups d'État en Mali et le retrait progressif des troupes françaises montrent l'évolution complexe et incertaine de la situation politique.
- 🌐 La présence russe au Sahel avec le Groupe Wagner et l'influence géopolitique de la région sont des préoccupations croissantes pour la France et l'Occident.
Q & A
Quel est le contexte général de la mission de la France dans le Sahel ?
-La France mène une mission de lutte contre les insurgés islamistes dans la région du Sahel depuis une décennie. La situation est devenue de plus en plus difficile, et la France est confrontée à des tensions croissantes avec les pays de la région.
Quels pays sont concernés par l'opération française dans le Sahel ?
-L'opération française dans le Sahel concerne principalement la Mauritanie, le Mali, le Burkina Faso, le Niger et le Tchad.
Qu'est-ce qui a contribué à l'escalade de la violence dans le Sahel ?
-La chute du régime libyen en 2011 a conduit à un afflux d'armes dans le nord du Mali, renforçant les insurgés, notamment les séparatistes touaregs et les groupes islamistes.
Quelles ont été les principales missions françaises dans la région ?
-La France a lancé plusieurs missions, dont l'Opération Sabre en 2010, l'Opération Serval en 2013 pour stopper la progression des islamistes vers Bamako, suivie de l'Opération Barkhane en 2014 pour lutter contre l'insurrection islamiste dans toute la région.
Quelles difficultés la France rencontre-t-elle dans la gestion de cette mission ?
-La France fait face à des difficultés militaires croissantes, des tensions politiques avec les gouvernements locaux, un coût financier élevé, et une opposition croissante au sein des populations locales et françaises.
Comment les relations entre la France et le Mali ont-elles évolué récemment ?
-Les relations entre la France et le Mali se sont détériorées après deux coups d'État au Mali et la décision du pays de signer un accord de sécurité avec le groupe Wagner, une organisation militaire privée liée à la Russie.
Quels sont les impacts potentiels d'un retrait de la France du Sahel ?
-Un retrait français pourrait affaiblir la mission de maintien de la paix de l'ONU au Mali, permettre aux insurgés islamistes de prendre davantage de contrôle et déstabiliser d'autres pays de la région, comme le Togo, le Sénégal ou la Côte d'Ivoire.
Pourquoi la France hésite-t-elle à se retirer complètement du Sahel ?
-La France craint que quitter la région n'affaiblisse son influence en Afrique de l'Ouest et ne permette aux insurgés de créer des bases d'entraînement pour des attaques futures en Europe. Elle souhaite également éviter l'expansion de l'influence russe dans la région.
Quelles solutions sont envisagées pour l'avenir de la mission française dans le Sahel ?
-La France est confrontée à un dilemme : elle pourrait soit accepter un dialogue avec les insurgés, soit s'engager dans un conflit sans fin avec un soutien de plus en plus limité des dirigeants et des populations locales.
Quel rôle joue la géopolitique dans la situation actuelle au Sahel ?
-Outre la lutte contre l'islamisme, la situation est influencée par la rivalité géopolitique entre la France et la Russie, cette dernière cherchant à accroître son influence en Afrique via des groupes comme le Wagner, ce qui complique davantage la position française.
Outlines
🇫🇷 La mission militaire française dans le Sahel: un défi croissant
Depuis une décennie, la France mène une mission difficile contre les insurgés islamistes dans la région du Sahel en Afrique. Alors que les tensions s'intensifient avec les pays locaux, la France se retrouve face à un dilemme: elle ne peut gagner par des moyens militaires et envisage difficilement de se retirer. Le script introduit également le narrateur, James Ker-Lindsay, qui discute des relations internationales, notamment de la campagne mondiale contre l'extrémisme islamiste, en particulier les efforts français en Afrique. La France s'est investie dans cette lutte dans la région du Sahel depuis près de dix ans, mais les résultats deviennent de plus en plus incertains.
🔫 L'escalade de l'insurrection islamiste et la réponse militaire française
En juillet 2014, l'opération Serval s'est terminée, mais les menaces islamistes n'ont pas disparu, ce qui a conduit au lancement de l'opération Barkhane. Cette nouvelle mission visait à coopérer avec les forces de sécurité des États du G5 Sahel, mais malgré des espoirs de paix, l'intensité des attaques a augmenté, notamment avec l'émergence de l'État islamique au Grand Sahara. La situation en 2020 s'est détériorée, entraînant des pertes humaines massives et des millions de déplacés. La France a cherché à internationaliser ses efforts avec la création de la Task Force Takuba, mais la détérioration politique et militaire a continué, exacerbée par des coups d'État au Mali.
⚠️ Les défis géopolitiques et humanitaires pour la France au Sahel
La présence militaire française dans le Sahel rencontre des résistances croissantes, tant au niveau politique qu'au niveau populaire, avec des accusations d'échec à sécuriser la région. La signature d'un accord entre le Mali et le groupe Wagner a intensifié les tensions, tandis que la détérioration des relations internationales a conduit à l'expulsion de l'ambassadeur français. Le texte soulève des inquiétudes concernant le futur de la mission française et ses répercussions sur la paix et la stabilité, non seulement au Mali, mais dans toute l'Afrique de l'Ouest. L'influence croissante de la Russie et la question du prestige international de la France compliquent encore la situation.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Sahel
💡Opération Barkhane
💡Insurrection islamiste
💡G5 Sahel
💡Opération Serval
💡Groupes djihadistes
💡Coup d'État au Mali
💡Wagner Group
💡ECOWAS
💡Élections présidentielles françaises de 2022
Highlights
France has been fighting a tough mission against Islamist insurgents in the Sahel region of Africa for the past decade.
Tensions between France and Sahel countries have reached a boiling point, making France's military efforts increasingly difficult.
The Sahel, a semi-arid region in northern Africa, is the central focus of the conflict, covering Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad.
Islam has played a central role in shaping the region since the 8th century, and most of the population in these countries are Sunni Muslim.
France has conducted more than 60 military operations across Africa since its colonial rule ended in 1960.
Rising Islamist extremism in North and West Africa led to the establishment of France's Operation Sabre in 2010.
Operation Serval, launched in 2013 in response to Islamist forces in Mali, was successful but did not fully defeat the insurgency.
Operation Barkhane replaced Operation Serval in 2014, consisting of 3,000 French troops to counter insurgencies in the region.
Despite initial success, the situation worsened in 2016-2017 due to the emergence of a new group, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara.
France increased its troops to 4,500 by 2020, but over 10,000 people had died, including 50 French soldiers, and millions were displaced.
France's efforts faced political strain after the 2020 military coup in Mali, and relations further worsened with a second coup in 2021.
France announced the end of Operation Barkhane in 2022, with plans to reduce its presence to 2,500-3,000 troops.
Mali signed a security agreement with the Russian Wagner Group in response to France's reduced commitment.
France faces a dilemma between withdrawing and risking further instability or continuing a costly, unpopular conflict.
The Sahel conflict has broader implications for regional stability, including fears of insurgents expanding influence to neighboring countries like Senegal and Ivory Coast.
Transcripts
For the past decade, France has been fighting a tough mission
against islamist insurgents in the Sahel region of Africa.
However, it's now facing an increasingly difficult situation.
As tensions have reached boiling point with the countries of the area,
France faces a seemingly impossible choice.
Unable to win the conflict by military means, can it really walk away from the Sahel?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at international relations, conflicts and the origins of countries.
For over two decades, the campaign against islamist extremism has been
one of the most significant security issues in international relations.
However, while we've tended to focus on US-led efforts to eradicate Al Qaeda and Islamic State
in the Middle East and Afghanistan, less attention has tended to be given to another important actor
operating elsewhere: France's efforts to handle growing radicalism in Africa.
At the heart of this has been the French operation in the Sahel.
Over the best part of a decade, French forces have been working with the countries of the region
and other international allies to fight a growing islamist insurgency.
However, as France tries to reduce its commitment,
the mission is now running into ever greater difficulties.
With many now asking whether the conflict in the Sahel is essentially lost,
France seems unwilling and unable to withdraw completely.
The Sahel is a semi-arid region in northern Africa.
Lying below the Sahara and stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea,
it's about 5400 kilometres or 3300 miles long and about 1000 kilometres or 600 miles wide.
In total, it covers a region of around 3 million square kilometres or 1.2 million square miles.
However, for our purposes the focus is on the central and western parts of the arc,
covering Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad.
In total, the population of these five countries is around 90 million people.
The region has a long and fascinating history.
This has been largely shaped by Islam, which first arrived in the 8th century.
Over the following centuries,
it gradually gained ground and by 1300 had become the main religion in the Mali Empire.
Although the Empire had declined by the 17th century, Islam had become firmly embedded
and to this day most of the population in all five countries are Sunni Muslim.
During the European colonial 'scramble for Africa' in the late 19th century.
the area came under French rule.
This lasted until 1960, when the five countries all gained
their independence alongside nine other french colonies in sub-saharan Africa.
In the years that followed, France retained close economic,
political and even military links with its former colonies in Africa.
Indeed, to date it staged more than 60 military operations across the continent.
In the Sahel, these were mainly focused on Chad,
where France established a permanent military presence in 1986.
Our story really starts with rising Islamist extremism in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
While most international attention was focused on groups in the Middle East,
offshoots also emerged in north and west Africa including Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
and the Movement of Unity and Jihad in Western Africa (MUJAO).
In response to this, France established its first counter-terrorism mission,
Operation Sabre, in Burkina Faso in 2010.
However, the situation worsened dramatically in 2011.
As Libya fell into civil war, arms flowed into northern Mali,
where they strengthened insurgencies led by Tuareg separatists and Islamist groups.
Having lost confidence in the government's ability to handle the situation,
Mali's military staged a coup in March 2012.
However, it did little to stem the tide of violence.
Just months later, Islamist forces, having defeated the Tuaregs,
pushed down towards the capital, Bamako.
On 20 December 2012, the UN Security Council passed resolution 2085.
Condemning the overthrow of the government, it nevertheless
called on member states and regional and international organisations to assist Mali's
security forces and authorised the creation of an African-led International Support Mission, AFISMA,
under the authority of the 15-member Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS.
However, in the days that followed the situation deteriorated rapidly.
On 11 January 2013, following a request from Mali, France launched Operation Serval.
Cooperating with AFISMA and an EU training mission, this held the ground until a 13,000
strong UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSMA, was put in place in July that year.
In the period that followed, things appeared to be improving.
French forces, working with the UN,
pushed back the Islamist groups and elections were held in Mali.
As a result, on 31 July 2014, Operation Serval came to an end.
But the Islamist threat was far from over.
To this end, the very next day a new french military mission began: Operation Barkhane.
Consisting of 3,000 French troops, and integrating the French missions in Chad and Burkina Faso,
it would work with the security forces of the five Sahel states - known now as the
G5 - to counter the Islamist insurgencies in the region.
Despite hopes that the insurgency could be reined in, a prospect encouraged by a 2015
peace agreement with several groups in Mali, over the course of 2016 and 2017 activity intensified
again - driven by the emergence of a dangerous new group, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara.
This also extended to Niger and Burkina Faso.
By 2020, the situation was looking increasingly blea.
Although France had sent in another 600 troops to join the 4,500 now on the ground,
the conflict in the Sahel had led to over 10 000 deaths,
including over 50 french soldiers and hundreds of troops from the G5.
Additionally, an estimated 2 million people had been displaced
and 4 million needed humanitarian assistance.
On top of all this, the effort was becoming increasingly expensive; costing
France around a billion euros a year - roughly three-quarters of its overseas military spending.
It was against this backdrop that France sought to expand
its counter-insurgency mission by drawing in other european partners.
A new special forces counter-terrorism initiative
was now created under the umbrella of Operation Barkhane, Task Force Takuba.
Serving alongside the Malian and other G5 forces, it would also include contributions from Estonia,
Sweden, Romania, Italy, Hungary and the Czech republic, amongst others.
However, things continued to deteriorate.
As well as the increasingly difficult military situation,
the French presence in the Sahel was now coming under increasing political strain.
In August 2020, a military coup overthrew the government in Mali.
This was followed nine months later, in May 2021, by a second 'coup within a coup'.
Strongly condemned by France and ECOWAS,
the take over severely strange relations between Paris and Bamako.
Meanwhile, at a popular level, the mission was also facing growing opposition
as many ordinary Malians accused France of failing to secure the situation.
On top of this, differences emerged over strategy.
While there were increasing calls for dialogue with the insurgents from within the region,
France steadfastly insisted that it wouldn't talk to terrorists.
It was against this backdrop, as well as increasing domestic French opposition to
an ever more expensive mission, that the French President, Emmanuel Macron,
announced on 10 June 2021 that Operation Barkhane would come to an end in early 2022.
While remaining committed to the counter-terrorism efforts, including Takuba,
weeks later France announced that it planned to reduce its presence to around 2500-3000 troops.
All this led to an angry response from the military regime in Mali,
which accused France of abandoning the country.
This tension came to a head when Mali announced that it had signed a security
agreement with the Wagner Group - a shadowy military organization that many believe
is linked to the Russian defence ministry.
Although the move was heavily condemned by France and the G5, as French forces pulled
out of their bases in northern Mali at the end of 2021, the Russian mercenaries moved i.
As 2022 began, the situation deteriorated even further.
With the military regime in Mali still defying calls for elections,
a military coup overthrew the government in Burkina Faso.
Meanwhile, the future of international counter-insurgency efforts was cast into
doubt after Mali ordered over 100 Danish troops that had recently arrived to leave,
arguing that they'd been there without permission.
With the participation of other countries now thrown into doubt, the French foreign
minister accused Mali's military rulers of being "illegitimate" and "out of control".
In retaliation, they expelled the French ambassador.
As things stand, France's counterinsurgency efforts in the Sahel look precarious.
With a catastrophic breakdown in relations between Paris and local leaders,
there are naturally questions about whether the mission remains viable.
As the french Defence Minister, Florence Parly, stated,
"we do the work we do at the demand of a sovereign state to combat terrorism
that victimises Mali's population. But we can't remain in Mali whatever the price."
And yet there's also a sense that France can't simply leave.
For a start, this could undermine the ongoing UN peacekeeping mission in the country,
which is very limited in how it can use force.
In essence, it's relied on the counter-insurgency to create
the conditions to do its work of protecting civilians and extending government control.
Then there are the wider effects of allowing the insurgents to gain further ground.
Quite apart from the effects that this would have on local populations forced to
live under extremism, as Afghanistan showed in the late 1990s these areas can become
powerful training facilities for radicals who may eventually turn their sights on Europe.
Moreover, a strengthened foothold may then see them expand further in the region.
At present, the challenge is centred on Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad.
However, there are fears that it may destabilise other countries, such as Togo,
Senegal, and the Ivory Coast.
Taken with ongoing activity in northern Nigeria, much of West Africa could become highly unstable.
But there are also other factors.
This touches on wider French influence in West Africa.
Paris clearly feels that it's an international leader in the region.
Vacating the area would be a huge blow to its prestige.
The problem is that staying under current circumstances
may also lead to further resentment and accusations of neo-colonialism.
Then there's the wider geopolitical dimension .
Moscow's growing influence in the region will also be seen as a source of concern
for French policy makers; as well as western governments more generally.
Meanwhile, all this is taking place against the backdrop of a French presidential election
in April 2022, which is almost certain to make the issue even more fraught.
For almost a decade, France has led international efforts to eradicate
islamist activity in the Sahel.
However, over the course of late 2021
and early 2022 that effort has run into ever deeper problems.
Against the backdrop of growing tensions and decreasing popular support
at home and in the region, France's position appears increasingly untenable.
The military takeovers in Mali and more recently Burkina Faso
have shown a growing frustration on the ground with the apparent
failure to deal with the groups and have undermined efforts to foster democracy.
For these reasons, observers suggest that, like the United States in Afghanistan,
France may well have to accept that it's now caught in the bind.
But if it can't walk away, the choice it now faces is between accepting that it's now in a seemingly
unwinnable war, and therefore promote dialogue with the insurgents, or else commit to fighting
a never-ending conflict that will increasingly pit it against local leaders and local populations.
I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.
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