La seguridad alimentaria y el impacto de la guerra en Ucrania | Los expertos responden

Summary

El conflicto en Ucrania está exacerbando la inseguridad alimentaria global, afectando especialmente el precio de productos como el trigo y los fertilizantes. Los países que importan granos de Ucrania y Rusia enfrentan el mayor riesgo inmediato, con países del Medio Oriente y África del Norte siendo los más vulnerables. El Banco Mundial aconseja contra las restricciones de exportación y promueve programas de protección social y apoyo a los agricultores para enfrentar el aumento de precios y la escasez de alimentos.

Takeaways

• 📈 La inseguridad alimentaria ha estado en aumento durante varios años, incluso antes de la crisis en Ucrania y la pandemia de COVID-19.
• 🌾 En 2020, el número de personas hambrunas era ya de aproximadamente 800 millones, un aumento de 100 millones con respecto al año anterior.
• 🔥 La guerra en Ucrania está exacerbando los problemas de inseguridad alimentaria, especialmente en lo que respecta a los precios de los alimentos.
• 🌎 Los países más vulnerables y afectados por la guerra en Ucrania son aquellos que importan gran parte de su trigo de ese país y Rusia.
• 📉 El trigo es el principal producto afectado por el conflicto, con un aumento del precio del 50% en marzo con respecto a febrero y del 80% con respecto al año anterior.
• 🌾 Rusia es el mayor exportador mundial de trigo, con casi el 20% de las exportaciones globales, seguido por Ucrania con un 10%.
• 🚢 El bloqueo de las exportaciones de trigo de Ucrania y Rusia está causando un shock significativo en los mercados globales.
• 🌱 Los precios de los fertilizantes también se ven afectados por la guerra, lo que podría traducirse en problemas de producción para la próxima temporada.
• 🚫 Las restricciones a las exportaciones de alimentos son contraproducentes y pueden tener consecuencias negativas en el mercado global.
• 💡 Los gobiernos y la comunidad internacional deben enfocarse en proteger la capacidad adquisitiva de los hogares más pobres y en programas de protección social bien dirigidos, en lugar de mantener los precios artificialmente bajos.
• 🌐 Para mejorar la resiliencia a futuros shocks, los países deben transformar sus sistemas alimentarios para que sean más productivos, eficientes en recursos, diversos y nutritivos.

Q & A

¿Cuál es el impacto inmediato de la guerra en Ucrania en la seguridad alimentaria mundial?

El impacto inmediato se está dando principalmente en y alrededor de Ucrania, pero también podría tener efectos de largo alcance más allá de la región, especialmente en los precios de los alimentos.

¿Cuál fue el número de personas hambrunas en 2020 antes de la guerra en Ucrania?

En 2020, el número de personas hambrunas era ya de aproximadamente 800 millones y estaba en aumento, 100 millones más que el año anterior.

¿Cuáles son algunos de los factores preexistentes que contribuyeron al aumento de la inseguridad alimentaria antes de la guerra en Ucrania?

Los factores preexistentes incluyen la pandemia de COVID-19, conflictos, eventos climáticos extremos y plagas y enfermedades.

¿Cómo afecta la guerra en Ucrania específicamente los productos de trigo y maíz?

La guerra ha afectado principalmente el trigo, con Rusia como el mayor exportador y Ucrania como uno de los principales exportadores. El maíz también ha aumentado en precios debido a la invasión.

¿Cuál es el porcentaje de aumento en los precios del trigo en el mercado global desde febrero?

El precio del trigo en el mercado global estaba a la fecha de marzo un 50% más alto que en febrero y casi un 80% más alto que hace un año.

¿Qué países están en mayor riesgo debido a su alta dependencia de las importaciones de trigo de Ucrania y Rusia?

Los países con un alto riesgo son aquellos que importan una gran cantidad de trigo de Ucrania y Rusia, como Egipto, Turquía, Bangladesh, Irán, Líbano, Túnez, Yemen, Libia y Pakistán.

¿Cómo afecta la guerra en Ucrania el costo de los fertilizantes y por qué es significativo?

La guerra afecta significativamente el costo de los fertilizantes, ya que Rusia y Bielorrusia representan el 20% de las exportaciones mundiales de fertilizantes. Esto podría traducirse en problemas de producción para la próxima temporada si los agricultores no pueden acceder a suficientes fertilizantes.

¿Qué tipo de estrategias recomienda el Banco Mundial para abordar la inseguridad alimentaria en tiempos de crisis?

El Banco Mundial recomienda proteger la capacidad adquisitiva de los hogares más pobres mediante programas de protección social bien dirigidos en lugar de mantener precios artificialmente bajos para todos.

¿Qué tipo de ayuda están brindando los países al Banco Mundial para enfrentar la crisis alimentaria causada por la guerra en Ucrania?

El Banco Mundial ha respondido con financiamiento de emergencia y nuevos proyectos, y se espera que haya más apoyo en respuesta a la crisis adicional.

¿Cómo pueden los países mejorar su resiliencia a futuros shocks, como pandemias o conflictos, en términos de seguridad alimentaria?

Los países deben transformar sus sistemas alimentarios para hacerlos más productivos, eficientes en recursos, diversos y nutritivos, asegurando la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional frente a riesgos climáticos, conflictos y económicos.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Aumento de la inseguridad alimentaria

El número de personas hambrunas aumentó a 800 millones en 2020, 100 millones más que el año anterior, incluso antes de la crisis en Ucrania y la pandemia de COVID-19. Los conflictos, eventos climáticos extremos y plagas y enfermedades son factores a largo plazo que afectan la seguridad alimentaria. La crisis en Ucrania ha exacerbado la situación, afectando especialmente los productos como el trigo, el maíz, los aceites comestibles y los fertilizantes, donde Rusia y Ucrania son grandes exportadores. Esto ha provocado un aumento significativo en los precios internacionales de estos productos.

05:02

🚢 Impacto del conflicto en Ucrania en la importación de cereales

Países con una gran dependencia de las importaciones de trigo de Ucrania y Rusia, como Egipto, Turquía, Bangladesh, Irán, Líbano, Túnez, Yemen, Libia y Pakistán, enfrentan un alto riesgo inmediato. La espera de envíos para la segunda mitad del año pone en peligro las operaciones humanitarias, especialmente el Programa Mundial de Alimentos. La respuesta a la crisis debe enfocarse en mantener los flujos comerciales abiertos y evitar restricciones de exportación, que podrían tener efectos negativos en el suministro global y aumentar los precios.

10:03

🌾 Medidas para fortalecer la seguridad alimentaria a largo plazo

Para mejorar la resiliencia ante futuros shocks y garantizar la seguridad alimentaria a largo plazo, es crucial transformar los sistemas alimentarios para que sean más productivos, eficientes en recursos, diversos y nutritivos. Esto implica un enfoque en la inversión en innovación, investigación y desarrollo, y en la promoción de prácticas agrícolas inteligentes ante el cambio climático. El Banco Mundial ha respondido a la crisis con financiamiento de emergencia y proyectos nuevos, aumentando su apoyo en áreas como la agricultura y medidas de protección social.

Keywords

💡hunger

El 'hambre' se refiere a la carencia de alimentos o a la ausencia de suficientes alimentos para mantener una vida saludable y activa. En el vídeo, se menciona que incluso antes de la crisis en Ucrania y la pandemia de COVID-19, el número de personas hambrunas en 2020 ya era de aproximadamente 800 millones y estaba en aumento, lo cual es un tema de grave preocupación para la seguridad alimentaria global [^5^] .

💡food insecurity

La 'inseguridad alimentaria' es una situación en la que un individuo, hogar o población no tiene regularmente acceso a alimentos suficientes y seguros. En el guion, se destaca que la inseguridad alimentaria ha estado en aumento durante años debido a factores como conflictos, eventos climáticos extremos y plagas y enfermedades, y que el conflicto en Ucrania puede empeorar la situación [^5^] .

💡conflict

El 'conflicto' se refiere a la guerra en Ucrania, que ha tenido un impacto significativo en la seguridad alimentaria global. El conflicto ha afectado directamente a los suministros de alimentos, especialmente de trigo, maíz, aceites comestibles y fertilizers, que son productos clave exportados por Rusia y Ucrania [^5^] .

💡wheat

El 'trigo' es un cereal crítico para la dieta de muchas personas alrededor del mundo. Rusia es el mayor exportador de trigo del mundo, y Ucrania es otro gran productor y exportador. El conflicto ha provocado un aumento en los precios del trigo en los mercados globales, lo que ha tenido un impacto en los países que dependen de las importaciones de estos países [^5^] .

💡fertilizers

Los 'fertilizantes' son productos químicos que se usan para aumentar la producción de alimentos. Rusia y Bielorrusia son importantes exportadores de fertilizantes, y el conflicto ha afectado su disponibilidad y ha provocado un aumento en los precios, lo que puede llevar a problemas de producción en la próxima temporada de cultivo [^5^] .

💡export restrictions

Las 'restricciones de exportación' son medidas tomadas por los gobiernos para limitar o prohibir la salida de bienes del país. En el vídeo, se aboga contra las restricciones de exportación de alimentos, ya que pueden tener efectos negativos en la distribución de alimentos y empeoran la inseguridad alimentaria global [^5^] .

💡social protection programs

Los 'programas de protección social' son medidas gubernamentales que proporcionan apoyo a los ciudadanos para protegerlos de la pobreza y la desesperación. En el contexto del vídeo, se sugiere que estos programas son una manera más efectiva de apoyar a los hogares más pobres en lugar de mantener precios artificialmente bajos para todos [^5^] .

💡food systems

Los 'sistemas alimentarios' hacen referencia a la interconexión de todos los componentes, operaciones y procesos involucrados en la producción, distribución y consumo de alimentos. El vídeo enfatiza la necesidad de transformar los sistemas alimentarios para hacerlos más resilientes y eficientes a largo plazo, lo que incluye la producción más diversa y nutritiva, y la reducción del impacto ambiental [^5^] .

💡acute food insecurity

La 'inseguridad alimentaria aguda' se refiere a una situación en la que la vida o la subsistencia de una persona está en peligro inmediato debido a la falta de alimentos. El vídeo menciona que 388 millones de personas en 42 países experimentaron inseguridad alimentaria aguda, lo que es un problema que requiere atención inmediata [^5^] .

💡World Bank

El 'Banco Mundial' es una institución de desarrollo que proporciona fondos a países en desarrollo para proyectos de infraestructura y desarrollo económico. En el vídeo, el vicepresidente para el desarrollo sostenible del Banco Mundial, Jürgen Voegele, aborda la crisis de seguridad alimentaria y cómo el Banco está respondiendo al conflicto en Ucrania y apoyando a los países en riesgo [^5^] .

Highlights

Hunger was rising even before the Ukraine crisis and COVID-19, with 800 million people hungry in 2020.

100 million more people were hungry in 2020 compared to the previous year.

The war in Ukraine exacerbates existing food insecurity issues.

Conflicts, extreme weather, and diseases are long-standing drivers of food insecurity.

388 million people across 42 countries experienced acute food insecurity in 2020.

Wheat is the primary commodity affected by the war in Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine are significant wheat exporters, impacting global food prices.

Global wheat prices were about 50% higher in March compared to February.

Maize prices increased by 25-30% following the invasion.

Rice prices have not been significantly affected by the conflict.

Shipping through the Black Sea has come to a standstill due to the war.

Countries that import wheat from Ukraine and Russia are at high risk.

Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran are major wheat importers from the region.

The World Food Program's humanitarian operations are threatened by the crisis.

Export restrictions in response to the crisis are not recommended.

Governments should protect the purchasing power of the poorest households.

Subsidizing fertilizers indiscriminately can increase demand and prices worldwide.

Countries should improve their resilience to shocks in the long term.

Investing in stronger food systems is also an investment in peace.

The World Bank has provided significant support in agriculture and social protection measures.

The World Bank expects to do more with the additional shock from the war.

Transcripts

has been rising for a number of years

and well before the ukraine crisis

and even well before kovit the number of

hungry people in 2020 was already about

800 million and rising unfortunately 100

million more

than we had the year before

[Music]

on this episode of expert answers we're

looking at the impact of the war in

ukraine on global food security while

the most immediate and obvious effects

are taking place in and around ukraine

disruptions from the war could have

far-reaching effects beyond the region

especially on food prices what does this

mean for the poorest and most vulnerable

and what should be done to promote food

security for answers to these questions

and more let's talk now to the world

bank's vice president for sustainable

development jurgen fogela

[Music]

so jurgen thank you so much for being

here and taking the time to chat with us

today one thing that i found interesting

was that even before the the war in

ukraine food insecurity was rising can

you explain the the pre-existing drivers

uh to the rising food insecurity and how

this invasion is likely to make those

worse

yeah it's good to be here paul great to

see you and thanks for for having me um

as you said hunger has been rising for a

number of years well before the ukraine

crisis

and even well before covet the number of

hungry people in 2020 was already about

800 million and rising unfortunately 100

million more than we had the year before

and this is partly because of the

impacts of the cobit pandemic but it's

also because of the long-standing

drivers of food insecurity such as

conflicts extreme weather events and

pests and diseases conflicts are a big

issue and and we need to look at two

elements of what it does right it is the

old it's the number of hungry people but

it's also the acute food insecurity and

acute food insecurity is

horrible because it really puts people

at immediate risk defined as when a

person's life or livelihood is an

immediate danger because a lack of food

and a staggering

388 million people across 42 countries

experienced acute food insecurity which

is more than five percent higher than in

2020. so this is an issue that we really

need to focus on right away the conflict

in ukraine is obviously dominating the

headlines right now can we sort of zoom

in onto that and is it possible to

to say which products are particularly

affected are there certain foods that

are that are particularly affected by

the the conflict in ukraine

sure i mean the commodities most

affected by the conflict our wheat

predominantly to some extent maize

edible oils and very importantly

fertilizers actually weed is the primary

commodity affected by the war russia is

the world's largest exporter of wheat

accounting for about 18

nearly 20 of global exports in 2021 and

ukraine accounts for another 10 now

they're both not the largest producers

of wheat that's india and china

but they are the largest exporters and

so

around 35 percent of the world's

population relies on wheat as the

primary staple in their diets so it's a

very significant

shock

as of march about a week ago the price

of wheat on global markets was about 50

percent higher than in february and

almost 80 percent higher than a year ago

maze prices also increased following the

invasion

a little rising about 25 to 30 percent

of our february levels and about 37

year-on-year so those two commodities

really have um gone up now other

commodities such as rice are not

affected for the moment which is quite

different from the situation we had 14

15 years ago during the last food price

crisis globally price is still about 17

lower than it was in january 2021 so

that there is a little bit of good news

there

now when you look at shipping through

the black sea and it's at a standstill

and high global wheat prices we can

expect other countries to sell more

wheat fortunately again the stock levels

are not bad so we should not

get a sense that we have a global wheat

shortage overall there is enough wheat

on the planet

and planting more wheat this spring and

summer will make up of the shortfall to

a significant extent if the exports

remain blocked out of ukraine

uh and russia so it's not really a total

supply issue but the problem is that

those countries that are used to

importing from those countries now have

to adjust and that will not be painless

and it will be very costly

then you have the impact of the war on

fertilizer cost and that's significant

because

it could really translate into

production problems for the next season

across crops

if yields crash because the farmers

cannot afford

or even access enough fertilizer we need

to understand that russia and belarus

account for 20 of global fertilizer

exports

and again fertilizer prices were already

very high before the war because of high

oil prices and the price of urea for

instance actually tripled last year

already so we're having a you know these

are sort of the two main buckets it's

the wheat

export and it's the fertilizer export

and and you're talking about the exports

there let's look at the other side of

the equation there are countries that

are importing

maybe it's wheat maybe it's other crops

but which countries are most likely to

be affected by the conflict in ukraine

so as i was saying right countries with

a high share of wheat imports from

ukraine and russia are the highest

immediate risk especially those who were

still awaiting shipments for the second

half of the of the year such as egypt

they're still waiting for 6.6 million

tons turkey is a major wheat importer

uh four million tons bangladesh is close

to four million tons in iran is 1.7

million tons but also lebanon tunisia

yemen libya and pakistan you can see

it's it's the countries in the region i

mean the men are the middle east and

north african countries depend on wheat

from the black sea region for geographic

reasons right the ships only have to

cross the mediterranean and wheat is a

staple in that region's diet egypt is

the world's largest wheat importer by

the way now this also threatens

humanitarian operations in venice since

the world food program depends on this

wheat so the compounding shock if you if

you want after war in ukraine may cause

severe outcomes for vulnerable people in

several middle east north african

countries if the humanitarian and

development decisions are not scaled up

so as again and again whenever we have

these crises it is the poor that suffer

the most

and one of the ways we've seen countries

respond to this is with export

restrictions is that an effective

strategy if

you know a government official from a

country were to phone you up and say

you know what should we do should we

stop the export of some of these crops

what would you tell them well this is

exactly the wrong thing to do so really

thanks for asking this question because

right now this is probably the most

important thing that we all can do

having a conversation around how to keep

the trade

of food commodities open and how to keep

the goodies flowing so when they call us

we will say absolutely not a good idea

if you want to support your own

population do it in a different way but

do not block the flow

of food it's a tempting uh you know it's

tempting to to restrict exports to avoid

local shortages but it it has very very

detrimental

implications as we as we saw when

when we went through the

2007-2008 food price crisis the trick is

really to move food from places of

surplus to places of need and that's

what needs to happen

so that's

what government shouldn't do

what should they do what should

governments the international community

do to support those that are most at

risk of food insecurity

right so of course they need to they

need to act they need to react and they

need to put measures in place in general

it's much better to protect the

purchasing power of the poorest

households to well targeted nutrition

sensitive social protection programs

rather than maintaining prices

artificially low for everyone

so for instance subsidizing bread across

all income levels is not a very

uh it's only very expensive for

governments it's regressive it

encourages food waste and poor diets and

it can be very hard to to politically

correct once a crisis is over right so

really supporting these social safety

nets at a time of crisis is the right

way to go the same caution applies to

helping farmers access fertilizers right

the knee jerk reaction is often well

let's subsidize it okay it's gotten more

expensive to help the farmers but if you

apply these subsidies indiscriminately

it risks increasing demand and

fertilizer

prices worldwide

and it doesn't help in the end removing

input trade barriers focusing on more

efficient user fertilizers investing in

bio fertilizers repurposing these public

policies and expenditures to better

support farmers a much better better way

of of doing this again this is in

addition to the to the export

restriction conversation what you do

domestically is actually very very

important as well and we know now from

many a couple of decades of experience

what works and what has a beneficial

effect overall and what doesn't work and

what should be avoided in a situation

like this

we spoke a couple months ago about

supply chains and what that meant for

food prices and food security

a few months ago most of us couldn't

imagine a war like the one that's

happening in ukraine

what can countries do

to improve their resilience kind of

across the board over the long term

to shocks whether it's something like a

pandemic that that

kind of

was quite hard to predict a conflict

that was hard to predict how can they

they strengthen their their food

security and boost nutrition over the

long term and create that resilience

that they need

right i think it's a very important

point that we don't just focus on the

immediate crisis and the short-term

measures but every country going forward

needs to continue to transform its food

systems and make make it more resilient

in the long term it's really crucial to

stay that course the food systems as i

said we're already reeling from multiple

crises prior to the russians invasion of

the ukraine governments private

businesses and international partners

really need to work towards more

productive more resource efficient more

diverse and more nutritious production

systems to ensure that food and

nutrition security is there in the face

of rising climate conflict and economic

risks i think this is absolutely clear

to everyone it's just we we forget

during times of crisis that we that we

can't take our eyes off the medium to

long term so it's really important to

better target the public spending

we talked about the subsidies before

right now you know the spending is in

the order of three quarters of a

trillion dollars a year and a lot of

that money is not doing what we've just

discussed and it needs to be repurposed

it needs to be redirected in a way that

actually achieves those those more

resilient more nutritious and and less

climate damaging outcomes important to

mobilize private funding and investing

in innovation and research and

development will be key because

everybody needs to do more with less

right we produce more nutritious more

diverse more high value food for great

for growing population and to do this

with less water and fertilizer while

limiting the land use and greenhouse gas

emissions climate smart agriculture is

the world to remember here now research

suggests that investing in stronger food

systems is also an investment in peace i

think this must be clear to everyone if

the food systems are wobbly as we see in

many countries right now this leads to

conflict it leads to migration etc etc

and i asked you earlier about you know

what would be your advice kind of

hypothetically if government officials

started reaching out to to you or the

world bank

my last question for you is have

countries reached out to the world bank

group for help and and what kind of

support uh is being offered in this area

of food security

yes definitely i mean we have been in

touch with a number of countries in east

africa west africa north africa

middle east

several other parts of the world even

before the pandemic but now it's really

been ramping up a lot of countries are

asking for support and we've responded

with a whole set of emergency financing

and new projects and we actually expect

to do more with this additional shock

and just the world bank has provided

significant support just in the last two

years about 17 billion annually in

combined ida and ibrd lending this is up

from about 12 billion on average in the

previous three years

primarily for agriculture and the social

protection measures and in the last

couple years we've allocated about half

a billion across

11 countries from the crisis response

window and there will be a lot more

coming and let's be clear this is not

the last crisis we are facing so

whatever we do we need to immediately

help those in acutely but we should

never take our eyes off that there is a

much deeper and much more fundamental

issue that we need to address with our

support in our programs

this is brilliant thank you so much for

taking the time today i really

appreciate it

it's my pleasure

a huge thanks to jurgen fogler for his

time you can find out more about how the

world bank is responding to the war in

ukraine by heading over to our website

that's worldbank.org and a quick

reminder that the world bank imf spring

meetings are just around the corner

we're planning several important events

and we want you to take part find out

the full schedule and more details at

live.worldbank.org

until next time goodbye

[Music]