Gold Outlook

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the outlook for gold, comparing its historical trends to current performance. They highlight how gold tends to break out before rate cuts and continues to rally over long periods, often lasting a decade. While acknowledging that gold generally underperforms the S&P 500 over time, the speaker emphasizes its potential as a hedge, especially during economic downturns. They also caution against short-term flipping, noting that gold's movements are typically slow and deliberate. The overall message is to use gold as a signal and hedge rather than a primary investment.

Takeaways

• 📈 Gold has historically shown strong rallies before rate cuts, as it did in 2019 and 2024, often following a similar pattern.
• 💡 In March 2024, gold's performance signaled a mid-cycle top for Bitcoin, offering crypto investors valuable market insights.
• 🛑 Over the long term, gold tends to underperform the S&P 500, but it serves as a useful hedge during times of economic uncertainty.
• ⏳ Gold's bull markets tend to last over a decade, in contrast to faster-moving assets like Bitcoin or altcoins.
• 📉 Significant pullbacks are expected during gold's bull runs, but historically, gold has always found support at key moving averages.
• 🏦 Even during the financial crisis and major downturns, gold typically experiences temporary drops before resuming its upward trend.
• 🚀 While gold has rallied about 27% from its last breakout point, it may continue moving toward higher targets like $3,500 depending on future market conditions.
• 🔄 Gold's movements can be slow and steady, with long periods of consolidation and occasional pullbacks before resuming its upward trajectory.
• 📊 Many investors remain bullish on gold as a hedge, despite its longer-term underperformance compared to stock indices like the S&P 500.
• ⚠️ The speaker emphasizes the importance of viewing gold as a long-term hedge rather than a short-term flip, cautioning against making short-term trades based on brief price movements.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video?

The main focus of the video is providing a general market outlook on gold, discussing its past performance, and making predictions based on historical trends.

What was the price of gold the last time the video creator discussed it, and what prediction did they make?

The last time the video creator discussed gold, it was priced around $2,000 per ounce. They predicted it would rally to around $2,500, which has since happened.

How does the video creator compare gold to Bitcoin in terms of market cycles?

The creator compares gold's breakout before rate cuts in 2019 and 2024 to Bitcoin’s midcycle top, suggesting that observing gold’s performance can serve as a signal for Bitcoin’s market trends.

What does the video creator suggest about gold as a long-term investment?

While the creator acknowledges that gold tends to underperform the S&P 500 over a long enough time period, they suggest it can serve as a hedge during times when the S&P is flat or underperforming.

How does the video creator describe the gold market's pace of movement?

Gold moves very slowly compared to assets like Bitcoin. Its bull markets can last for a decade, and its daily or monthly price movements are often minor compared to cryptocurrencies.

What key indicator does the creator use to assess the strength of gold’s bull market?

The creator uses the 20-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a bull market support band for gold, indicating its long-term trend.

What comparison does the creator make between gold’s performance in the 2000s and the present day?

The creator compares gold’s performance during the 2000s bull market, where it rallied 600% from 2001 to 2011, with its current performance, suggesting that it is once again in a slow, long-term uptrend.

Why does the creator believe gold is a useful signal for crypto investors?

The creator believes gold serves as a signal for crypto investors because, historically, its breakouts have coincided with significant moments in the crypto market, such as Bitcoin’s midcycle tops.

What does the creator say about potential pullbacks in gold’s price?

The creator expects occasional pullbacks to the bull market support band but advises against selling in anticipation of these pullbacks, viewing them as buying opportunities instead.

What is the creator’s outlook on gold's future performance?

The creator expects gold to continue rallying, with occasional pullbacks, and speculates that its bull market could last for several more years, potentially reaching new highs between $3,100 and $3,500 by 2025.

Outlines

00:00

💬 General Outlook on Gold's Market Performance

The speaker opens the video by discussing the historical performance of gold, focusing on its trends around critical economic events like Bitcoin's midcycle tops and interest rate cuts. He emphasizes how gold tends to break out before rate cuts and highlights its recent rally, which exceeded expectations by surpassing $2,500 per ounce. He stresses that for crypto investors, gold should be viewed more as a signal rather than a direct investment, especially noting its underperformance relative to the S&P 500 over long periods.

05:01

📉 Gold's Bull Market Support Band Explained

The speaker discusses the concept of the 'bull market support band' for gold, which differs from that of Bitcoin due to gold's slower movement. He explains how gold historically finds support at the 20-month SMA and 21-month EMA during pullbacks, with exceptions like the financial crisis. The speaker asserts that gold has been in a bull market since 2016, emphasizing its slow but steady rise with higher highs and higher lows, making it a more stable but less exciting asset compared to cryptocurrencies.

10:02

⏳ The Slow and Steady Nature of Gold

This section elaborates on the gradual nature of gold's bull markets, contrasting it with the rapid movements typical of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The speaker notes that gold's bull markets can last for a decade or more, with occasional pullbacks to its support band. He mentions quantitative easing (QE) as a factor that influences gold's performance, predicting that gold will likely continue its upward trend with intermittent corrections, making it a reliable long-term hedge rather than a short-term investment.

15:02

🚀 Long-Term Perspectives on Gold's Bull Market

In the final section, the speaker provides a long-term perspective on gold's ongoing bull market, suggesting that it might continue for several more years. He advises against selling gold in anticipation of minor pullbacks, instead viewing these as opportunities to increase exposure. The speaker also highlights the importance of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) in assessing gold's momentum, predicting that gold's bull market could last until 2029 or beyond, given its historical patterns of decade-long trends.

Keywords

💡Gold

Gold is the central focus of the video and represents a traditional safe-haven asset. The speaker discusses its historical market performance, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. Gold is presented as a reliable long-term investment, though it moves slowly compared to other assets like cryptocurrencies. In the video, gold is analyzed through its price movements and its use as a signal for predicting broader market trends, such as Bitcoin's midcycle tops.

💡Bull Market

A bull market refers to a prolonged period of rising asset prices. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses how gold has been in a bull market since 2016, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The speaker also contrasts gold’s bull markets, which can last for a decade, with the more volatile and shorter bull markets seen in assets like Bitcoin.

💡Bull Market Support Band

The bull market support band refers to a moving average indicator that helps define the support level during a bull market. For gold, this is represented by the 20-month SMA and the 21-month EMA, which are monthly moving averages. The speaker explains how gold has found support at this band in past bull markets and uses it to analyze future price movements. The video stresses that as long as gold stays above this support band, its bull market is likely to continue.

💡Interest Rate Cuts

Interest rate cuts refer to a reduction in central bank rates, which can influence the economy by making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment. In the video, the speaker points out that gold tends to break out before interest rate cuts, suggesting that lower rates are beneficial for gold prices. The speaker references gold's performance before rate cuts in both 2019 and 2024 as examples.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is used in the video as a point of comparison to gold. The speaker highlights how gold's price action can serve as a signal for predicting Bitcoin's midcycle tops. Although Bitcoin and gold are both seen as alternative assets, the video contrasts Bitcoin’s higher volatility and shorter bull markets with gold’s slower, decade-long market cycles. Bitcoin's midcycle top in 2024, for example, is mentioned as being predictable based on gold’s historical patterns.

💡S&P 500

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. The speaker discusses how, over long periods, the S&P 500 generally outperforms gold. However, during certain economic conditions, such as the dot-com crash and the financial crisis, gold significantly outperformed the S&P 500. The speaker uses this to argue that gold can be a useful hedge against a stagnant or declining stock market.

💡QE (Quantitative Easing)

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the economy by purchasing government securities, thereby increasing the money supply. The video references how gold continued to rally even after the introduction of QE in 2019, suggesting that this policy, often implemented during times of economic distress, tends to support rising gold prices. QE is mentioned as a factor that influences gold's long-term bullish trends.

💡Logarithmic Regression Trend Line

A logarithmic regression trend line is a tool used to model asset prices over time by applying a logarithmic scale to long-term price movements. The speaker discusses gold’s performance relative to its logarithmic regression trend line to suggest potential future price levels. The video notes that gold has previously extended 100% and 450% above this trend line during different bull markets, hinting that gold’s current cycle could still have room for further growth.

💡Labor Market Deterioration

Labor market deterioration refers to a weakening of the job market, often characterized by rising unemployment and slowing wage growth. In the video, the speaker suggests that a deteriorating labor market could prompt central banks to resume QE and cut interest rates, which would be favorable for gold prices. This is used as part of the speaker's broader argument that economic downturns tend to be bullish for gold.

💡RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a technical indicator used to measure the momentum of an asset, indicating whether it is overbought or oversold. The speaker refers to gold's RSI to suggest that while gold’s RSI is elevated, it has historically risen higher during bullish periods. In the video, the weekly RSI for gold is analyzed to predict potential corrections or continued upward movements.

Highlights

Gold is following a similar pattern to its 2019 breakout, where it rallied before rate cuts were introduced.

Gold has rallied about 27% from its breakout point, previously expected to reach $2500 and now exceeding expectations.

Gold can be viewed as a signal for crypto investors, especially for predicting Bitcoin mid-cycle tops.

Historically, gold underperforms the S&P 500 over the long term, but there are periods when it can significantly outperform, such as during the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis.

Gold's bull markets can last for a decade or longer, unlike the shorter and more volatile bull runs seen in crypto.

Gold often finds support during pullbacks at its 20-month SMA and 21-month EMA, unlike Bitcoin, which uses weekly moving averages for support.

During the 2001-2011 gold bull market, the price surged by 600% while the S&P 500 remained flat.

Gold tends to rally even during periods of quantitative easing (QE), as seen in 2019-2020.

Gold's current bull market started around 2016, with stronger momentum picking up in 2018-2019.

There are opportunities for occasional pullbacks to the bull market support band, which could serve as potential entry points.

Gold's bull market support band is currently between $2116 and $2165, providing wiggle room for potential pullbacks without losing the overall trend.

Despite the slow movement of gold compared to crypto, its long-term trends and sustained bull markets make it a useful hedge in portfolios.

Gold's moves can be slower but more sustained, making it attractive for longer-term investors looking to hedge against stagnant equity markets.

The current rally could continue for several more years, potentially reaching $3500 by 2025 depending on market conditions.

Gold tends to have fake-outs below its bull market support band before continuing upward, seen in both the 2000s bull market and the recent 2022 market.

The RSI for gold is currently elevated around 80, which is a historically high level, and previous bull market tops occurred when RSI reached around 84.

Transcripts

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back

into the precious metal verse today

we're going to talk about gold and we're

just going to be providing a general

Outlook if you guys like the content

make sure you subscribe to the channel

give the video a thumbs up and check out

intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe

cryptoverse

docomo here is go through gold and and

talk about a a General Market Outlook

based on what gold has historically done

the last time I did a video on gold was

probably about a year ago and it was

when it was around 2000 or so around

2,000 um uh dollars per ounce now if you

guys remember what I said back then my

expectation was that it would follow

something similar to 2019 right where

it's pushing up against a ceiling and

then it finally breaks through around

the time that Bitcoin puts in what you

might call a midcycle top right where

then Bitcoin kind of Trends down for at

least half a year gold did this did that

in 2019 before Cuts arrived and it's

also done it in 2024 before rate Cuts

arrived right you can look at at

interest rates put this on this put put

them on the chart and you can see that

in both Cycles here while it's easy to

assume this time is different both

Cycles gold broke out before rate Cuts

arrived right and then gold broke out

here before rate Cuts arrived and then

it it goes on a pretty impressive rally

so back then after gold broke out

rallied about 50% now it's already

rallied about 27% from the breakout

point so what I want to do is is think

about what did I say back then my

speculation back then was that gold

would rally likely to approximately

2500 and then get a pullback well this

was back in almost 2,000 an ounce it's

gone past 2500 I'm pleasantly surprised

right I have a gold position I've I've

said that many many times I will

reiterate you know for for most crypto

investors gold is not something they're

going to be interested in I'm not trying

to convince you of that I'm trying to

say look at it as a signal more than

anything else right if you're a crypto

investor and you don't care about gold

as an investment you could still have

used it back in March 2024 to say look

if it follows what it did in 2019 it

means Bitcoin is likely going to put on

a midcycle top and it's going to Trend

down for at least the next six months

right you could have known that back in

March when everyone was screaming at you

that something else was going to happen

just look at gold it was a signal more

than it was an investment for a lot of

crypto investors I will say over a long

enough period of time gold does

underperform the S&P 500 right it does

but you have to wonder right there are

people that are insanely bullish on gold

and they always have been and you're

like well why why are they there there's

there's a reason people get like that

right it's not just because it's never

done anything it's just because they had

it when it did do something at some

point and they want to relive The Glory

Days a lot of a lot of the people that

watch this channel are are about my age

right I was born in 1990 and I look at

this gold chart and I I you know I if I

were to draw on here when I was born it

was right here right in

1990 so the only bull market that gold

has really had an impressive bull market

was when I was still a kid right I mean

the rally it started in 2001 I was only

11 years old right so you'll have to

forgive me for not being on the gold

bandwagon back then right it's not like

I was on my way to middle school I was

checking the price of

gold but again there are people that

have seen these really impressive

rallies before and so that's why you'll

see the gold bugs right the same thing

could happen to bitcoiners too

eventually right it's possible in fact

this this rally over here by gold looks

eerily similar to the Bitcoin rally in

2013 sort of that double Peak cycle but

the thing about gold is that these

rallies don't take place over a year or

two they take place over a decade right

these are monthly candles 118 months

you're talking about a decade long move

here 120 months right 124 months a

decade long move and so what I think a

lot of people do is they treat gold like

they treat an altcoin or something where

they try to flip it over a day or a

month to make some money but gold is one

of those Investments if you're going to

have it in your

portfolio is you know and I and I do own

gold for full disclosure right but it's

a relatively small amount because as

I've said over a longer period of time

gold under forms the S&P 500 but I still

think it's worthwhile to hedge

occasionally because for instance during

this period right here when gold went up

you know 600% from 201 2011 or so during

that same period the S&P was basically

flat because of the dot crash and the

financial

crisis so you basically had a loss

decade while gold went up

600% now

the last time I made a video on gold I

think it was around 2,000 and I said

look guys it's probably going to break

out and it's probably going to get a

move to 2500 okay it's done that now and

I'm like all right well now what well

there is the bull market support band

for gold now the bull market support

band for gold is different than for

Bitcoin so for Bitcoin it's the 20we SMA

and the 21 we EMA which by the way

Bitcoin is currently back above but for

gold for something that moves as slowly

as gold is the 20mon SMA and the 21mon

EMA so it's a monthly moving average

rather than a rather than a weekly and

you might say well what is the

justification for that well look at this

bull market over here every single time

that gold had a larger pullback it

always found support at the 20-month SMA

and or 21-month EMA the only time it

went below this bull market support band

in its decade long bull market was

during the financial crisis so that

shows you that even gold is not immune

to some types of recessions where it

dropped

33.8% now I've tried to make this

comparison to this bull market for gold

right I mean there's no denying that

gold has been in a bull market I mean

you could argue that it's been in a bull

market since 2016 right you know looks

like it bottomed out here in 2016 and

it's been slowly moving up it didn't

really get moving though until early 20

or late 2018 early

2019 you see that it didn't really get

moving till then

but

certainly any unbiased person would say

you know this is just a series of higher

lows and higher Highs but it takes place

over a painstakingly long amount of time

that it's hard to notice right it's hard

to notice sometimes when Gold's moving

because a good day is for it to just

move up half a percent right that's a

good day whereas for Bitcoin if Bitcoin

only were to go up half a percent in a

day a lot of people would consider that

to be down right they would consider

that to be a red day almost if it's not

going up a lot um

and I mean it's just crazy the different

types of investors that sort of go to

these different different types of

assets but I would say this right I

would say this gold is still set up in a

relatively similar way as it was you

know out of that 2019 rally and

basically gold rallied even through the

introduction of of QE right so if you

look at the introduction of QE QE

started here in August 2019 gold still

or September 2019 gold still rallied

even after after that right it did get a

little bit of a pullback once QE came

back but it still continued to Rally

after that so my speculation is that it

will likely continue to Rally there will

be some pullbacks probably to the

bullmark sport band right now the

bullmark sport band for it is all the

way down at like 21 to 2200 so I'm not

really sure if it's going to go that low

but um I I could see some occasional

pullbacks but I don't think it makes

sense to sell in anticipation of those

occasional pullbacks not Financial

advice I would just some more so see

that as an opportunity if you want to

get exposure to gold right I mean first

of all if you wanted it right you had

plenty of time back over here um sort of

waiting for the breakout to to occur

just like it did in 2019 now it has so

now the question is well how long could

this go on for one of the things to

remember is that with gold it's not like

crypto right it's not like Bitcoin or

ethereum or any of that stuff when it

goes into bull markets it can stay that

way for a decade again this was a decade

long bull market I mean yes there was a

some some downtrends in between but

these were massive bull markets if you

look at the bull market support band for

gold this cycle it's been above that

level since 2019 it only fell below it

once during the bare Market of 2022 so I

wonder I wonder if this fake out there

is similar to that fake out right there

and then it come you see this it comes

back up consolidates gets a big pushup

up consolidates and just keeps on doing

it after that downturn right there in

2008 gold rallied for another

3 let's say 36 months right about three

years after this pullback it's already

been 22

months but again if it's going to follow

that you could argue that it could

easily

go look another 14 months will put at

the end of 2025 so I don't know if it's

going to take place over that long a

period of time but one of the things you

could do is you connect the dots on

these Peaks and say well what if you

connect the dots on these

Peaks where would that land gold well it

depends on when it hits it if it hits it

say the end of this year it could be at

3160 if it were to hit it say the end of

2025 you know it could obviously be 3500

or so now that might sound like a crazy

number for gold but remember when it

gets moving it can really move for a

while I think the hard part is that you

could get a scenario where gold does

something like this right where it gets

a big selloff and then consolidates

until the bullmark sport band catches up

right like if it if it did something

like this where then the bullmark sport

Bank catches up and then it goes up and

everyone during this time would be like

oh see Gold's not going anywhere but in

reality that would be a perfectly normal

move so when it comes to gold and you

have to think of it kind of differently

than crypto like it's not something

generally speaking that is worthwhile in

my opinion anyways to flip on a shorter

term period right it's it's not an

altcoin it's something that you could

have in your portfolio if you want to

hedge against the S&P becoming

relatively flat for a while right if the

S&P gets too overvalued and and then

there's another selloff and whatnot and

and and you just kind of generally have

riskof conditions where the S&P isn't

doing that great gold could be a hedge

against that just like bonds could be

just like fixed income could be but over

a long enough a period of time gold will

likely underperform the S&P 500 even

though there are years where it

outperforms the P 500 so over a long

enough period of time you know because

of that because over a long enough

period of time the S&P does send to

outperform Gold my thought process is

that it makes more sense to have you

know a smaller position in Gold than say

like index funds because index funds do

generally outperform gold but as a hedge

in a portfolio it's not necessarily a

bad way to go because it could protect

you could help protect you if the S&P

does you know do something like this

right because if you overlay gold

um during you know during that period

right if you overlay gold during this

period right here where the S&P was just

kind of going nowhere that was when gold

was going absolutely parabolic so you

know Gold's been going parabolic and you

know will there be another drop in the

S&P 500 at some point that's possible

right it's certainly possible and that's

why I say gold could be a a interesting

hedge right it gives you some exposure

to the upside it's not that gold can't

go down you can see that even during

some of these crazy bull markets that

gold has had it still went down I mean

you know the financial crisis was a a a

pretty large drop by gold I mean just to

give you an

idea of of the drop right during the

financial crisis it was like a 35% move

to the

downside I mean just to give you an idea

of where that would put gold today right

like a 35% drop would put gold all the

way back at 1,700 which I don't think

many people have when they're being go

card the other thing that I've used to

look at gold previously are the gold

logarithmic aggression trend line the

trend line here and so I've pointed this

idea out right that you have sort of an

intermediate

top a visit back to the bull market

support band and then another bull

market right which is probably what I've

been arguing we're in right now where

the extension from the fair value for

the second one is larger than the first

right so the extension from the fair

value right there was about 100% but the

extension from the fair value in 5 years

later was you know

450% the extens here was about 92% right

so really similar really similar to that

extension right there so far the

extension from the fair value is only

about 57% now I'm not suggesting it's

going to go 400% above the fair value

but I would suggest that it could

certainly go higher than 57% above the

fair value um the other thing to

consider by the way though is that it

doesn't have to end in 2025 right there

exists a scenario where where you know

you have these sort of little these

breakout moments like 2019 and 2024 and

then at some point here right it topped

out right it topped out after QE

returned um about six months or so so

you could have an example where gold you

know does something like this it rallies

qy returns and then it kind of stagnates

for a while and then the next cycle gold

breaks out again right it ends up being

another midcycle top for Bitcoin uh for

the next cycle and it just keeps doing

something like that and then you look

back on it and you're like oh wow you

know the bull market lasted from 2018

until 2028 or something right or

2029 that's always a possibility again

gold moves very slowly I think it's easy

to look at these bull markets be like oh

that would have been easy to ride this

was a 10-year bull market and then this

was a 10year bull market so why should

anyone expect the move by gold to occur

over a month or a week or even a year

when history shows that bull markets for

gold tend to last for a decade or so so

I would I would keep in you know keep

that in mind if you are interested in

Gold so I would say the main two tools

that I would use here the main things I

would be looking at um would just be all

right as long as gold is trending above

its bullmark support band I think all

systems are still go um that is all the

way down at 2116 to 2165 so there's

plenty of wiggle room in there there

will likely be pullbacks to the to its

bull Mark sport band along the way just

like there were in this bull market over

here and just like there were in this

one over here but when it's as long as

it's above it right you also had a fake

out below it in this bull market as well

right so in in both of the two last bull

markets there was basically one major

fake out below the bull Mark sport B

just like there was here in late

2022 so I think we're in sort of that

second stretch here and I think you're

watching gold basically go parabolic as

investors are starting to get concerned

about potentially some of the labor

market deterioration and the more that

the labor market deteriorates the more

it means that QE will be resuming soon

and interest rate Cuts will continue and

gold likes that so my general thought

process on gold is that it will remain

constructive it will likely continue to

put in higher lows as long as it holds

above the bull market support ban it

still should be fine I would get

concerned if it were to get below the

bull market support ban I don't even

know if it has to retest the prior

breakout point you know some of the

times when you look at at breakouts

you'll expect it to retest the breakout

point but if you look at 2019 it never

retested that before continuing higher

so there's no guarantee that it has to

retest this and in fact considering that

the bull market support band for gold is

above the prior breakout point I would

be inclined to say that it won't more

likely not to than it more than it is to

actually do that I would say my general

thought process as I said it's likely to

remain constructive my guess is that

there will be pullbacks to the bull

market support band throughout the bull

market for gold just like there were in

this bull market and just like there

were back over here right there was you

know different pullbacks to the bullmark

sport band during the overall macro

uptrend but that it's not worthwhile in

my view to sell an anticipation of that

but to use that as an opportunity if you

look at like the RSI right if we if we

pull up the RSI for gold you can see

that it is getting relatively elevated

right I mean it's currently at around 80

okay the last time we saw gold break

through um you know back over here in

2019 the RSI the weekly RSI it topped at

around

84 right 84 so I've been keeping my eye

on that a little bit because it was also

that was also around the level that it

topped out at during these sort of

intermediate rallies in the last bull

market you see that and then the final

top was actually a much lower high right

it was a much lower high which is

coincidentally where gold is right

now right that's actually coincidentally

where where gold is right now um is is

it's actually slightly above it right

now but what I would say you know I

wouldn't be surprised if Gold's weekly

RSI goes back up to like

8384 kind of like it did a couple times

over here right and then maybe out in

2029 or something you know it puts in a

a a lower high or something you know

something something like that could

happen but anyways those are my views on

gold um we'll see what happens I would

say it's still likely going to be a long

journey it's not something that's like

an altcoin that you're you're probably

looking for a shorter term play anyways

if you guys like the content make sure

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guys next time bye