Geoengineering: A Horrible Idea We Might Have to Do

Summary

This video discusses the potential of geoengineering as a drastic measure to combat climate change, focusing on stratospheric aerosol injection. It explores the concept, inspired by the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions, where sulfur particles are injected into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight. While it could temporarily slow global warming, it poses risks like altered rainfall patterns, ozone depletion, and the danger of 'termination shock' if stopped abruptly. The video warns that geoengineering is not a solution but could buy time for transitioning to carbon-neutral economies.

Takeaways

• 🌍 By the end of the 21st century, climate change could lead to severe global crises such as poor harvests, famine, and resource wars.
• 🌡️ Geoengineering is proposed as a radical solution to slow down rapid climate change, involving interventions on a massive scale.
• ☀️ Stratospheric aerosol injection is a geoengineering method that involves spraying particles high in the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the Earth.
• 🌋 The 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption serves as a natural example of how volcanic particles can cool the Earth's surface.
• 💧 Sulfur dioxide from volcanic eruptions can create a veil that reflects sunlight, reducing global temperatures.
• 🌳 Geoengineering could have unintended consequences, such as changes in rainfall patterns affecting agriculture and potentially causing famine.
• 🌌 The stratosphere could be heated, and the ozone layer damaged, by the acid veils created by geoengineering efforts.
• 🔄 There is a risk that politicians and industry might use geoengineering as an excuse to delay transitioning to a carbon-neutral economy.
• 🌊 Ocean acidification continues to be a threat even if geoengineering slows down global warming, as CO2 emissions are still increasing.
• 💥 Stopping geoengineering after starting could lead to a 'termination shock,' where Earth heats up much faster than it would naturally.
• ⏳ Geoengineering might only provide a temporary solution, buying time for humanity to transition economies and develop CO2 removal technologies.

Q & A

What is the grim scenario described at the end of the 21st century in the script?

The scenario describes a world facing severe heatwaves, droughts, poor harvests, and a decline in fish populations due to warming oceans. This leads to famine, resource wars, and mass migration to the north.

What is geoengineering and why might it be considered as a solution?

Geoengineering refers to large-scale interventions designed to counteract climate change. It is considered as a potential solution because it could help slow down rapid climate change, giving humanity more time to transition away from fossil fuels.

What is stratosphere aerosol injection and how does it work?

Stratospheric aerosol injection involves spraying particles high up in the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the planet. It works by mimicking the natural cooling effect observed after volcanic eruptions, which release sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, creating a haze that reduces sunlight reaching Earth's surface.

How did the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption impact global climate?

The eruption ejected sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, creating a haze that reduced sunlight reaching Earth's surface by about 1%, leading to a temporary 0.5°C drop in global average temperatures.

What are the potential side effects of aerosol injections?

Potential side effects include changes in rainfall patterns that could negatively affect agriculture and cause famine, damage to the ozone layer due to the heating of the stratosphere, and the risk of politicians using the cooling effect as an excuse to delay transitioning to a carbon-neutral economy.

Why is it important to research geoengineering despite its potential risks?

Researching geoengineering is important to understand its potential benefits and risks fully. This knowledge could provide humanity with crucial time to transition away from fossil fuels and potentially mitigate the worst effects of climate change.

What is the 'termination shock' mentioned in the script?

The 'termination shock' refers to the rapid increase in global temperatures that could occur if geoengineering efforts were suddenly stopped after decades of blocking solar radiation while still releasing CO2 into the atmosphere.

How might geoengineering affect the oceans' acidity?

Even if geoengineering slows down global warming, the continued release of CO2 into the atmosphere would still cause the oceans to absorb more CO2, increasing their acidity and harming ecosystems like coral reefs.

What is the best-case scenario for geoengineering as described in the script?

The best-case scenario is that geoengineering buys humanity a crucial decade or two to transition economies and potentially develop technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, thus mitigating the existential danger of rapid climate change.

Why has geoengineering been controversial and what is the author's stance on it?

Geoengineering has been controversial because it involves manipulating the Earth's climate system with potentially severe unintended consequences. The author suggests that while it is not a solution to climate change, understanding geoengineering is crucial in case it becomes necessary, and that the current CO2 emissions are already conducting an uncontrolled experiment on the planet.

What is the role of specialized airplanes in the proposed geoengineering method?

Specialized airplanes would be used to ascend into the stratosphere and distribute aerosols along the equator, which would then be spread around the world to reflect sunlight and help cool the planet.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Climate Desperation and Geoengineering

The paragraph discusses the dire situation humanity could face by the end of the 21st century due to climate change, including heatwaves, droughts, poor harvests, and famine. It introduces the concept of geoengineering as a potential solution to slow down rapid climate change. Geoengineering methods range from constructing light sails in space to seeding clouds with salt or fertilizing oceans with iron. The focus is on Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, which involves spraying substances in the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the planet. The paragraph draws a parallel to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, which cooled the Earth by ejecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. It suggests that humans could mimic this process by injecting sulfur particles, which could be relatively easy and cost-effective. However, it also warns of potential negative side effects, such as changes in rainfall patterns affecting agriculture and the potential to damage the ozone layer.

05:02

🚫 Geoengineering Risks and Ethical Concerns

The second paragraph delves into the potential risks and ethical concerns associated with geoengineering. It discusses how politicians and industry might use the cooling effect of geoengineering as an excuse to delay transitioning to a carbon-neutral economy. The paragraph highlights that even if geoengineering slows global warming, it does not address the issue of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere, which leads to ocean acidification and damage to ecosystems like coral reefs. It also warns of the risk of 'termination shock', where stopping geoengineering after decades could lead to a rapid increase in global temperatures, causing severe disruptions to Earth's systems. The paragraph concludes by suggesting that while geoengineering is a frightening concept and not a solution to climate change, it is crucial to understand it better through research and experimentation. It emphasizes the importance of being prepared and conducting the necessary science to avoid potentially disastrous outcomes.

Keywords

💡Geoengineering

Geoengineering refers to large-scale interventions aimed at altering the Earth's climate, typically to combat or mitigate climate change. In the video, it is presented as a radical but potentially necessary response to slow down rapid global warming. Examples from the script include strategies like stratospheric aerosol injection, which aims to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching Earth.

💡Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

Stratospheric aerosol injection is a geoengineering technique that involves spraying particles high into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the planet. The video describes this as a plausible method that could slow or halt global warming by injecting sulfur particles into the stratosphere, similar to how volcanic eruptions affect global temperatures.

💡CO2 (Carbon Dioxide)

CO2 is a greenhouse gas that traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to global warming. The video highlights how carbon dioxide emissions are a primary cause of climate change, as it traps infrared radiation. Despite efforts like geoengineering, the video warns that CO2 will continue to accumulate, leading to problems like ocean acidification.

💡Mount Pinatubo Eruption

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo is used in the video as a real-world example of how natural events can influence global temperatures. The eruption released sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, which led to a temporary global cooling of 0.5°C. This event serves as a model for the potential effects of stratospheric aerosol injection.

💡Ozone Layer

The ozone layer is a protective layer in the Earth's stratosphere that absorbs most of the Sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation. The video warns that geoengineering methods, like injecting sulfur particles, could damage the ozone layer, as evidenced by the expansion of the ozone hole after the Mount Pinatubo eruption.

💡Termination Shock

Termination shock refers to the sudden and rapid increase in global temperatures that could occur if geoengineering efforts, such as aerosol injection, were suddenly halted. The video explains that after years of artificially cooling the Earth while CO2 levels continue to rise, stopping these interventions could result in a temperature spike that would cause severe global disruptions.

💡Solar Radiation

Solar radiation is the energy emitted by the Sun that reaches the Earth. In the context of geoengineering, the goal is to reflect a portion of this energy back into space to reduce global warming. The video explains how natural processes, such as ice and cloud cover, already reflect some solar radiation, and how aerosol injection could enhance this effect.

💡Ocean Acidification

Ocean acidification is the process by which the oceans absorb excess CO2 from the atmosphere, leading to a decrease in pH levels. The video warns that while geoengineering might cool the planet, it would not stop CO2 from making the oceans more acidic, which is harmful to marine ecosystems like coral reefs.

💡Famine

Famine is a severe scarcity of food that can result from climate change-related disruptions, such as altered rainfall patterns or poor agricultural yields. In the video, famine is a consequence of both global warming and potential geoengineering side effects, such as changes in rainfall that could devastate agricultural regions.

💡Acid Rain

Acid rain is precipitation that contains harmful amounts of sulfuric and nitric acids, typically caused by emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. The video raises the concern that sulfur particles injected into the stratosphere for geoengineering could lead to acid rain, damaging ecosystems and human infrastructure.

Highlights

Humanity faces desperation by the end of the 21st century due to climate change effects.

Geoengineering is proposed as a radical solution to slow down rapid climate change.

Geoengineering methods range from space-based light sails to ocean fertilization.

Stratospheric aerosol injection is a focus for potential intervention.

CO2 traps infrared radiation, similar to a blanket, causing the Earth to warm.

Nature's example: The 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption cooled the Earth temporarily.

Sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere created a cooling effect by reflecting sunlight.

Humans could mimic volcanic cooling by injecting sulfur particles into the stratosphere.

Specialized airplanes could distribute aerosols along the equator to reflect sunlight.

Aerosol injections could have negative side effects, such as changing rainfall patterns.

The stratosphere could be heated and the ozone layer damaged by such injections.

Geoengineering might delay the transition to a carbon-neutral economy.

Ocean acidification continues even if geoengineering slows global warming.

Termination shock could occur if geoengineering efforts are stopped abruptly.

Geoengineering is not a solution but could buy time for economic transition.

Geoengineering has been controversial, limiting scientific research and understanding.

We are already conducting a geoengineering experiment by emitting CO2.

It's crucial to be prepared with science and understanding before using geoengineering.

Transcripts

By the end of the 21st century,  humanity is becoming desperate.  

Decades of heatwaves and droughts  have led to unusually poor harvests,  

while the warming oceans yield fewer fish each  year. In the tropical zones, millions suffer from  

famine and resource wars have made millions  more flee to the north. As things quickly  

get worse, in an act of desperation, the world's  governments decide to enact an emergency plan...

It is far from certain that a grim scenario like  this will play out. But the failure of world  

leaders to effectively address climate  change, makes it far from impossible.

So in the near future it might become necessary  to try something radical to slow down rapid  

climate change: Geoengineering.  Interventions so massive in scale  

that they might undo centuries of human  behavior. Or make everything much worse.

What is geoengineering, is it really  an option and what if it goes wrong?

Geoengineering methods vary from fantastic ones  like constructing giant light sails in space  

to seeding clouds with salt or  wilder ones like fertilizing  

the oceans with iron to speed up the  growth of trillions of algae cells.

In this video we’ll focus on an intervention  we could see during our lifetimes:  

Stratospheric aerosol injection. A clunky term  

that means spraying stuff very high up  in the atmosphere to keep the sun away.

Keeping the Sun away

CO2 doesn’t heat up the planet on its own, almost  all of the energy on earth comes from the sun in  

the form of electromagnetic radiation. About 71%  of this energy is absorbed by the earth's surface  

and atmosphere. This absorbed energy is  emitted again, as infrared radiation. And  

CO2 is able to trap this infrared radiation  and keep it in the atmosphere for a while.  

You can compare this effect with  snuggling under a blanket in the morning.  

Even in a really cold room, your  body emits infrared radiation  

and the air between your body and the blanket  traps it and creates a warm and comfy feeling.

So one way to cool down the planet would  be to prevent energy from getting trapped  

under our planet blanket. Which is  already happening naturally. About 29%  

of the solar radiation hitting earth  is reflected back to space by bright  

surfaces like ice, deserts, snow or clouds.  More reflection, less energy, less warming.

We can look at nature for inspiration:

Specifically the 1991 Mount Pinatubo  eruption, the second largest volcanic  

eruption of the 20th century. Aside from  massive devastation and almost 900 dead,  

scientists noted its strong impact on the  global climate. The explosion ejected millions  

of tons of particles and gas as high as the  stratosphere which hung around there for a while.

The stuff that is interesting for geoengineering  is sulphur dioxide. A nasty smelling and invisible  

gas. High in the atmosphere, it produced a haze  of sulfuric acid droplets, that mixed with water  

and created giant veils. These veils reduced the  sunlight reaching earth’s surface by roughly 1%.  

Global average temperatures dropped by 0.5°C.  

It took three years until this  cooling effect had stopped.

Humans could imitate this process by injecting  sulfur particles directly into the stratosphere.  

According to some scientists, this  might be surprisingly easy to do  

and we don’t even need a lot of new  technology for it. According to one study,  

it also might be pretty cheap compared  with the cost of rapid climate change.

A small fleet of specialized airplanes could  ascend once a year and distribute aerosols along  

the equator from where they would be spread around  the world. Projections assume that injecting  

between five and eight megatons of material per  year would reflect enough sunlight to slow down  

or even stop global warming. . Giving us precious  time to transition away from fossil fuels.

Unfortunately, there might be  a few unhappy side effects.

There are a number of potential  issues with aerosol injections:  

rainfall patterns could change which  could negatively affect agriculture  

and cause famine. Billions of people  could be affected in the worst case.

Also, after the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, the  acid/water veils not only cooled down the surface,  

they also heated up the  stratosphere. As it turns out,  

acid is bad for the ozone layer and the  ozone hole over Antarctica was the largest  

it ever has been . Injecting sulfur particles  over decades could have a similar effect.

Scientists have already suggested  using a combination of different  

minerals that might have much less  harmful effects on the ozone layer  

but more research and experiments need  to be done to make sure this could work.

But even if we don’t damage the  ozone layer, there are other risks.

Politicians and industry  might use the cooling effect  

as an excuse to delay the switch  to a carbon neutral economy.

Even if geoengineering slows down global  warming, humanity is still adding extra CO2  

to the atmosphere. More CO2 in the air means  that the oceans absorb more CO2, which makes  

them more acidic. This is already beginning to  be deadly to huge ecosystems like coral reefs.  

And the longer this continues, the  more severe the effects will be.

But it gets worse: Once we start pumping  particles into the atmosphere on a massive scale,  

we might be forced to do so for a long  time, or we could risk a termination shock.

What that means is that if humanity  continues to enrich the atmosphere with CO2,  

but at the same time prevents the planet  from heating up by blocking solar radiation,  

we are sitting on a time bomb.

Once we stop geoengineering, the  natural cycle will take over again,  

and earth would heat up. But after a few  decades of keeping the planet artificially  

cold while still releasing massive amounts of  CO2, it would heat up, much, much quicker. An  

increase in temperature that would take 50  years today, could happen in just 10 years.

Such a temperature shock in such  a short time would disrupt every  

major system on earth so much that it  would be impossible to adapt in time.  

The worst case scenario could be dramatic  famines and the rapid destruction of ecosystems.

Humanity might survive. But the survivors would inhabit an unfamiliar and hostile world.

The best case scenario is that once the world has  finally fully understood the existential danger  

of rapid climate change,geoengineering  can buy us a crucial decade or two.  

Time to transition our economies  and maybe even pull CO2 out of the  

atmosphere. Maybe with technologies  that we’ll discuss in a future video.

# Conclusion

Geoengineering is a scary concept. It is not a  solution to climate change and it might even be  

a welcome excuse for the fossil fuel industry  to delay the end of the fossil fuel age.

Over the last few decades geoengineering has  been so controversial that it stopped many  

scientists from doing the experiments  necessary to understand it better.  

But blankly opposing  geoengineering is short sighted.

The sad truth is that we are already  running a geoengineering experiment.  

We are testing how fast the world changes if  we add about 40 billion tons of CO2 each year.  

This experiment is about to get really exciting.

Hopefully we never have to use Geoengineering.  But if we need to in the future,  

we better have done the science. We better  be prepared. Or a panicking humanity  

might accidentally press the self destruct button.