Bitcoin: The Unified Standard Model
Summary
TLDRIn diesem Video vom 25. September diskutiert der Sprecher das sogenannte Standardmodell für Bitcoin. Er betont die Bedeutung von Liquidität, Geldmenge M2 und deren Einfluss auf den Bitcoinpreis. Der Power Law-Ansatz zur Adoption von Bitcoin wird ebenso thematisiert, der besagt, dass Bitcoin schneller als das Geldangebot wächst. Der Sprecher schätzt, dass Bitcoin in 10 Jahren einen Preis von etwa einer Million US-Dollar erreichen könnte und spricht von der Notwendigkeit, das Modell zu verstehen, um Bitcoin erfolgreich nutzen zu können.
Takeaways
- 📅 Bitcoin-Preis am 25. September 2024: 63.800 USD.
- 🌟 Ein neues Standardmodell für Bitcoin wird vorgestellt, das die Machtgesetz, Liquidität, Have-Zyklen und Volatilität als Preistreiber berücksichtigt.
- 💹 Liquidität ist ein Hauptfaktor für die tägliche Preisbewegung von Bitcoin, mit M2 als Basis für Geldmengenangebot.
- 🌐 Globale Liquidität wird als wichtiger Faktor für die Preisbewegung von Bitcoin angesehen.
- 📉 Ein Rückgang der Liquidität um 10% führte zu einer Preissenkung von Bitcoin um 20% zwischen 2022 und 2024.
- 🚫 Bitcoin-Investoren sollten sich der FED-Politik nicht entgegenstellen, da diese die Liquidität beeinflusst.
- 🌱 Bitcoin hat eine globale Annahmerate von etwa 1% und wächst exponentiell schneller als das Geldmengenwachstum.
- 📊 Die Machtgesetz-Modell passt besser zu den historischen Bitcoin-Preisdaten als ein exponentielles Modell.
- ⏳ Die Machtgesetz-Modell prognostiziert, dass der Bitcoin-Preis in etwa 10 Jahren bei etwa einer Million USD liegen wird.
- 🔮 Das Modell bietet eine gute Vorhersage für die Preisentwicklung von Bitcoin und die mögliche Hyperbitcoinisierung in etwa 20 Jahren.
Q & A
Was ist das sogenannte Standardmodell für Bitcoin, das im Skript erwähnt wird?
-Das Standardmodell für Bitcoin ist ein Konzept, das die Preisbestimmung von Bitcoin mit verschiedenen Faktoren wie der Machtgesetzverteilung, Liquidität, Preiszyklen und Preisvolatilität verknüpft. Es versucht, ein kohärentes Modell zu schaffen, das die Evolution von Bitcoin als Anlage im Rahmen eines S-Kurven-Modells beschreibt.
Was bedeutet Liquidität im Kontext des Bitcoin-Standardmodells?
-Im Kontext des Bitcoin-Standardmodells bezieht sich Liquidität auf den Geldbestand (M2) und die globale Liquidität. Sie wird als Hauptfaktor für die tägliche Preisbewegung von Bitcoin angesehen, da Bitcoin sehr an Liquiditätsänderungen sensibel ist.
Wie beeinflusst eine Veränderung der Liquidität den Bitcoinpreis nach dem Standardmodell?
-Nach dem Standardmodell reagiert Bitcoin sehr sensibel auf Veränderungen der Liquidität. Eine 10%ige Erhöhung der Liquidität führt beispielsweise zu einer 40%igen Erhöhung des Bitcoinpreises.
Was sind die 5-Jahres-Zyklen, die im Skript erwähnt werden?
-Die 5-Jahres-Zyklen beziehen sich auf die durchschnittliche Laufzeit der Schulden, die in 5-Jahres-Zyklen refinanziert werden müssen. Diese Zyklen sind wichtig, da sie sich auf die globale Finanzlandschaft und damit auch auf die Liquidität auswirken, was wiederum die Bitcoin-Preise beeinflusst.
Was ist die Rolle der US-Notenbank (Federal Reserve) im Bitcoin-Standardmodell?
-Die US-Notenbank hat eine zentrale Rolle im Bitcoin-Standardmodell, da ihre Geldpolitik und ihr Ansatz zur Schuldenrefinanzierung die Liquidität beeinflussen, was wiederum die Bitcoin-Preise beeinflusst. Ein Zitat aus dem Skript ist 'das wahre Mandat der Fed besteht darin, sicherzustellen, dass der Bondmarkt funktioniert und dass die US-Regierung den Bondmarkt für ihre Emissionen nutzen kann'.
Was ist die Bedeutung des Power Laws im Bitcoin-Standardmodell?
-Das Power Law beschreibt die Annahme, dass die Bitcoin-Akzeptanz exponentiell wächst, was zu einem schnelleren als exponentiellen Wachstum des Geldbestands führt. Dieses Wachstum ist schneller als das des Geldbestands und führt zu einem hohen Wachstum des Bitcoinpreises.
Wie wird die Volatilität von Bitcoin im Standardmodell behandelt?
-Die Volatilität von Bitcoin wird im Standardmodell als ein Merkmal der Machtgesetzverteilung und des Wachstums der Akzeptanz betrachtet. Im Logarithmenraum wird die Volatilität gemessen und sie scheint sich etwas zu dämpfen, was auf eine Annäherung an einen stabileren Preis hinweist.
Was ist der Unterschied zwischen dem Power Law und dem Exponentiellen Modell in Bezug auf Bitcoin?
-Im Power Law wächst der Bitcoinpreis schneller als das Geldbestand, was ein exponentielles Wachstum übertrifft. Im Exponentiellen Modell hingegen wird angenommen, dass der Preis exponentiell wächst, was im aktuellen Bitcoin-Standardmodell nicht der Fall ist.
Was sagt das Standardmodell über die Zukunft des Bitcoinpreises voraus?
-Das Standardmodell schätzt, dass der Bitcoinpreis in etwa in 10 Jahren etwa eine Million US-Dollar betragen wird, basierend auf der aktuellen Wachstumsrate und der Annahme, dass die Akzeptanz und Liquidität weiterhin steigen werden.
Was ist die Bedeutung der historischen 'Happening' Zyklen für Bitcoin im Standardmodell?
-Die historischen 'Happening' Zyklen haben in den ersten beiden Bullenmärkten von Bitcoin eine signifikante Rolle gespielt, da sie die Versorgung beeinflusst haben. Im Standardmodell werden sie jedoch als weniger relevant angesehen, da bereits 95% aller Bitcoin[minted] sind und die neuen Minenmengen im Vergleich zu den Einkäufen von größeren Investoren wie Black Rock und Fidelity nicht mehr so signifikant sind.
Outlines
📈 Bitcoin und das neue Standardmodell
Der erste Absatz spricht über das neue Standardmodell für Bitcoin, das die Machtgesetz, Liquidität als Preistreiber, Have-Cycles als Preisdeterminanten und Modelle für Volatilität, Annahme und Entwicklung in einen S-förmigen Verlauf über eine wable-Funktion integriert. Es wird betont, dass dieses Modell von einer Gruppe von Quanten, einschließlich dem Sprecher selbst, unterstützt wird. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Liquidität, die als täglicher Treiber des Preises angesehen wird, und es wird auf die Bedeutung der Geldmenge M2 hingewiesen. Es wird auch auf die Arbeit von Michael Howell und seine Analyse der Liquidität eingegangen, die auf der Idee der Liquidität basiert, die in den späten 1980er Jahren bei Salomon Brothers entstanden ist.
💹 Liquidität und deren Einfluss auf Bitcoin
Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Rolle der Liquidität und wie sie die Bitcoin-Preise beeinflusst. Es wird erwähnt, dass eine 10%ige Steigerung der Liquidität zu einer 40%igen Steigerung des Bitcoin-Preises führt. Derzeit ist Bitcoin sehr sensibel gegenüber Veränderungen der Liquidität, was durch die Zentralbankpolitik beeinflusst wird. Es wird auch auf die Aussage von Marty Zad zurückgekommen, dass man den FED nicht in Frage stellen sollte, was auch für Bitcoin gilt. Der FED ist momentan auf der Seite von Bitcoin, was zu einer Steigerung des Bitcoin-Preises führt.
🌐 Machtgesetz und globale Anpassung
Der dritte Absatz behandelt das Machtgesetz als Teil der Geschichte der Anpassung von Bitcoin. Es wird betont, dass Bitcoin derzeit eine globale Anpassung von etwa 1% hat und dass diese Anpassung exponentiell wächst. Das Wachstum von Bitcoin ist schneller als das des Geldangebots, was auf die Anpassung und die zunehmende Nutzung von Bitcoin zurückzuführen ist. Es wird auch erwähnt, dass der Preis von Bitcoin sehr volatil ist und dass dies im Logarithmenraum besser verstanden werden kann. Der Absatz schließt mit der Diskussion über die historischen Zyklen von Bitcoin und die Bedeutung von 'Happenings' für die Versorgung von Bitcoin.
🔮 Vorhersagen des Standardmodells für Bitcoin
Der vierte Absatz spricht über die Vorhersagekraft des Standardmodells für Bitcoin. Es wird vorhergesagt, dass der Bitcoin-Preis in etwa 10 Jahren bei etwa einer Million Dollar liegen wird, wobei auch eine mögliche Überschreitung dieser Marke in Betracht gezogen wird. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung der Vorhersagen hingewiesen, die das Modell bietet, verglichen mit der Allgemeinen Relativitätstheorie, die die Bending-Phänomene des Lichts vorhergesagt hat. Der Sprecher schließt mit einer Aufforderung an die Zuhörer, ihm zu folgen und sich bei Bitcoin Brain Trust einzutragen, um auf die neuesten Forschungen und Videos zuzugreifen.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Standardmodell
💡Liquidität
💡Power Law
💡Adoption
💡Volatilität
💡Refinanzierung der Schulden
💡Federal Reserve
💡S-Kurve
💡Hyperbitcoinisierung
Highlights
Bitcoin's price is currently at 63,800.
A new standard model for Bitcoin is being discussed, incorporating power law, liquidity, halving cycles, volatility, and adoption models.
Liquidity, particularly money supply M2, is a key driver of Bitcoin's price on a day-to-day basis.
Global liquidity has been measured differently, with Michael Howell's analysis being highlighted.
The concept of liquidity was born in the late 80s at Solomon Brothers, a premier institution for bond research.
Debt refinancing has become a central theme due to massive money printing, with 5-year cycles being significant.
The Federal Reserve's real mandate is to ensure the bond market operates smoothly for US government issuance.
Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to liquidity, with a 10% increase in liquidity leading to a 40% increase in Bitcoin's price.
A 10% fall in liquidity from 2022 to 2024 caused a drop in Bitcoin's price, driven by the Federal Reserve tightening interest rates.
The power law model is more about adoption, with Bitcoin currently at about 1% global adoption.
Bitcoin's growth rate is currently about 45% compounded annual growth rate, which is four times faster than money supply growth.
Bitcoin's high growth comes with high volatility, which is better understood when looking at the price in log space.
The historical model for Bitcoin prices fits the power law, not the exponential model.
Plan B's model is invalidated by the data, and it's suggested to discard it in favor of the power law model.
The power law model, combined with liquidity, provides a consistent model for Bitcoin with an r-squared of 95%.
The power law predicts that in 10 years, Bitcoin's price should hit around a million.
The model suggests that hyperbitcoinization might occur in about 20 years.
The video encourages viewers to follow the presenter on YouTube and Twitter for more research and discussions on Bitcoin.
Transcripts
all right hey guys it is Wednesday
September 25th Bitcoin is at um 80 sorry
63,800 got ahead a little bit ahead of
myself there um and uh this this video
will cover what I
call the new standard model for Bitcoin
um and what do I mean by a standard
model well I think we're in a position
right now where uh a number of us quants
and I will throw myself in that mix but
uh I would completely single out Giovani
Steven paranode uh plan
C Cena um have all we've all kind of
coales around this model which is a
model that
incorporates the power law which
incorporates liquidity as a driver of
price which includes haveing Cycles as a
determinant of price and which has a
model of volatility a model of adoption
a model of how this thing could evolve
into um an scurve uh via a wable fun
viable
function and uh and I really think this
this is a very cohesive model now that
we're we're starting to get to and I
really feel
like it's not a stretch to call this
thing the standard model um in the the
same sense as we have a standard model
now for particle physics um so you know
let's talk about the standard model and
let's start with liquidity right because
the most in a day-to-day basis I think
the thing that could drive the most
price is liquidity and what do I mean by
liquidity well broadly I mean money
supply M2 right uh and I think you know
there's a lot of things that are cre in
liquidity M2 is a good basis for a US M2
but you know uh there's been different
ways of measuring Global
liquidity and Michael Howell was on uh
with us uh yesterday and you know did an
amazing job with this
um you know his analysis of liquidity
and so I just want to single out Michael
and I want to single out this concept of
liquidity that really kind of was born
in the late 80s at Solomon Brothers uh
which was really the premier uh
Institution for research on interest
rates on bonds and and the largest bond
trading operation in the world at that
time and uh you know Michael was at that
firm I was at that
firm uh on the trading side and and uh
little later Josh Mandel was at that
firm and of course my friend David W who
I
subsequently left Solomon to trade with
it grenage was of that firm so uh we
have this history of being at Solomon
Brothers in the bond world at a time
when Solomon was the king of the bond
universe and uh the research coming out
of Solomon Brothers and the bond market
research group was led by Henry
calman and the bond portfolio analysis
group that was led by Marty Leo it's was
by far the best in the world and uh this
not a fretch to say that so we
have we have this this beginning of a
theory that starts with money supply and
I think one of the things that Michael
Howell said in the last video that
really resonated with me
is really because of all this money
printing
um we're
now the main thing is refinancing the
debt right because the debt has become
such a huge uh
number uh that the Cycles
all revolve around refinancing the debt
and these are tend to be actually
measured as 60-month or 5year cycles and
where the fiveyear number comes is that
um the average maturity of the debt is
about 5 years um
so you know we've got this 5year uh
phase to roll over the world debt um and
of course the US is you know at the
Forefront of that with you know $30
trillion in debt uh that is being issued
at different maturities now it's being
issued really at the short end but it
has an average maturity of 5 years and
um and as Michael said the the real goal
of the real Mandate of the Federal
Reserve is not to cut un inflation cut
protect against inflation or to protect
against unemployment the real Mandate of
the fed the unspoken real Mandate of the
FED is to make sure that the bond market
operates and that the fed the US
government can tap the bond market for
its issuance right so anyways that's the
liquidity side of it now as Howell notes
and in his studies if you increase the
liquidity by
10% the gold will go up 10% but Bitcoin
will go up 40% so uh Bitcoin
reacts in an is extremely sensitive to
liquidity and we we saw that there was a
fall in liquidity about a 20% fall a 10%
fall in liquidity uh from 19 20 from
2022 to
2024 and uh you know the first phase of
that caused a uh real drop in Bitcoin in
2022 and so you know that is more was
probably more liquidity driven than
having driven
um it was really driven by the liquidity
the Federal Reserve um tightening
interest rates
now and and you know it goes back to
another saying that was popularized by
Marty zag about the same era Marty was
an incredible uh personality and he was
always on Wall Street week and wrote
some great books and I actually
subscribed to Marty's subscription
service so he had a a newsletter and it
was it was it was great and uh Marty
always said don't fight the FED that was
one of his rules and in the same sense
Bitcoin you don't want to fight the Fed
so now we have the FED on our side we
have money printing we know that as the
fed's pushing right Bitcoin is going
forx on that so that's the liquidity
side now we have the power law side
completely separate the power law is
really much more of a story of adoption
so we have this new
technology Bitcoin which is about you
know 1% Global adoption right now so 1%
of the world uses Bitcoin as kind of
their main savings vehicle right now um
I'm one of them uh I hope you are as
well um if you have been using Bitcoin
as your savings vehicle you've been
doing very well recently uh
so that
1% is
growing right by
roughly the time since the Bitcoin was
invented in the Genesis Block in 2009
till now right so it's been growing for
15 years and the power loss says that as
it's growing as that time since the
Genesis block has happened it's growing
at
roughly
5.7 power of that time right so it's
growing at a very high rate at a rate
that is faster than an exponential rate
of money supply growth so money supply
growth is growing at
10% bitcoin's growing at
um currently at about 45% compounded
annual growth rate right so you know
four times faster than the money supply
is growing and it's growing that way
because adoption is growing and we're
having adoption into this finite
resource resource and because according
to Met's law
the uh it's becoming more useful there's
more people buying into this new money
um
Paradigm uh and the result of all this
is that we have this very very high
growth in bitcoin price but it's a high
growth with high volatility right now
really hard to understand to see any
Rhyme or Reason in this volatility when
you look at it in just regular space or
only if you look at the price in log
space you really need to look at the
price and time since Genesis Block in
log space so log log space and then you
can measure volatility and you see it's
3 which is actually very high but not so
high in log space right so and it's
actually dampening a little bit so um we
have this very good model now for
Bitcoin prices and let's just call it a
historical model right we we don't need
to say it's a predictive model but we
know it's a historical model the fit is
excellent you can't argue with this now
if you try to fit an exponential model
to it you will find the fit is not good
so this model fits the power law it does
not fit the exponential uh the data does
not fit the exponential uh an
exponential
hypothesis actually at this point the
data does not fit plan B's model at all
so plan B's uh system is invalidated by
the data um and I really think we should
just drop Plan B Because Plan B was a
very was an early model and a lot of
people sort of perceived it as the
standard model they didn't think of it
enough they didn't analyze it enough and
I I now think we can discard that model
and we really have this this power law
model which is the Genesis of of a
really great model now
so if you add in the liquidity model and
the power law model and then we also
take into account sort of
historically The Happening cycle right
which was very significant in the first
two
um in the first two bull markets of
Bitcoin right in 2013 when the market
uh when The Happening
happened and
these happenings were very very
significant they made an enormous amount
of difference in terms of Supply today
not so much right um we've mined 95% of
all Bitcoin and the happenings will
matter for the miners but they won't
matter so much for Bitcoin holders
because you know we're mining right now
450 Bitcoin a
day uh Black Rock just bought
2400 Bitcoin uh Black Rock and and
Fidelity and the other uh ETF provid but
they bought 2400 Bitcoin yesterday right
so between Michael sailor the
ETFs this is not a question
of um who's who's going to buy this
extra
mining uh uh Supply that it it's just no
longer relevant and that's just a bad
model to have in your head that there's
this finite little amount of new Bitcoin
that is and and you know if that thing
drops it's going to make an enormous
difference it really won't because if
we're mining 450 Bitcoin a day right now
if we drop to uh
225 which we will next happening uh it's
not going to make that much difference
those 200 Bitcoin a day are not going to
make a world mountain of difference um
so there will not be a supply shock but
but there may be a liquidity liquidity
shock worldwide and there probably will
be in 5 years because uh we'll probably
go through another liquidity cycle
because we always tend to do that and uh
and so you know I think liquidity Cycles
will continue haveing
Cycles probably not if I had to guess
and of course we have this power law of
adoption Etc so but all these things
together we now have a very consistent
model of Bitcoin we have a model with an
r squared of 95% we have a great
understanding of liquidity Cycles we
have a great understanding of why
Bitcoin is growing we have a models of
adoption um and again I want to thank
out Giovani first of all for discovering
this uh for discovering the power law I
want to
point out uh Steven paranode for his
work on applying the power law to gold
and for building up this wall model for
an scurve now again the the crew is not
100%
um
uh uh 100% in agreement that we are
going to see in a wble esurf but it's an
interesting model because at some point
point the Bitcoin price sort of exceeds
in a power law sort of exceeds all
um all the value of all resources on
earth now it may still do that or it may
sort of sort of kind of create an N
right now but we are in the early stages
where it's the wull S curve is
essentially a power law and will be for
the next two decades so we also have
this now this timeline in this what does
this model predict because the models
that don't predict anything are useless
right so you know general
relativity uh famously predicted
edington's experiment with the U the
bending of light around the Sun could be
measured verified uh general relativity
um now what does the power lot predict
well power lot predicts that 10 years
from now more or less we're should hit
around a million in terms of Bitcoin
price now we could hit 3 million right
we could we could undershoot it by only
going to half a million but it's very
unlikely that 10 years from now we're
going to be at 100,000
Bitcoin um so also pretty unlikely that
we're going to be at 10 million Bitcoin
so gives us a good range of Bitcoin it
tells us a little bit how long we have
to go to possible hyperbitcoinization
and that number tends to be 20 years
um so a lot of this stuff is a
predictive
model uh and uh I think it's it's it's a
great great model I think there's still
stuff that we don't know about the model
um you know it's it's great that a lot
of people are really digging into the
statistics and the math uh and the
economics because I think I think this
is a great area of study and I think
it's it's something that I'm glad to at
least be part of a little bit even if
it's just bringing it to light and
shutting shutting this out and spreading
this to the world so so anyways that's
that's what I would call the standard
model I think it's going to hold up over
time um and uh yeah that's my episode
for today a little longer than normal 16
minutes but if you like this video you
like our stuff uh please follow me on
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then please visit uh Bitcoin Brain Trust
Brain Trust BTC on Twitter as well which
is where all of us quants kind of hang
out and we sort of put some research not
every single day but there's going to be
some good research and good videos there
so again thank you very much
for um Prof follow me and uh safe
Bitcoin
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