NÃO IGNORE O ALERTA: A TAXA SELIC VAI SUBIR MUITO MAIS NO BRASIL

Summary

The video discusses Brazil's high interest rates and the potential for further increases due to concerns raised by the Central Bank about the government's fiscal policy. The Central Bank highlights that Lula's administration's expansionist fiscal stance, marked by rising public spending, makes controlling inflation harder, possibly leading to higher interest rates. The video also emphasizes discrepancies in the accounting of public finances between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, affecting market confidence. Lastly, it offers investment advice given the expected high interest rates until mid-2025, suggesting safe options like fixed-income funds.

Takeaways

• 📈 High interest rates in Brazil are not surprising, but the Central Bank warns that they could rise even higher if fiscal policy transparency is not improved.
• 🏛️ The Central Bank criticizes the expansionary fiscal policy of the Lula government, which increases public spending and stimulates the economy, leading to higher inflation and the need for higher interest rates.
• 💼 The Central Bank demands predictable rules and transparency in public accounts, highlighting a difference in accounting methods with the Ministry of Finance.
• 🔢 There is a significant discrepancy of over R$ 41 billion in the calculation of the public account deficit between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance.
• 💼 The discrepancy is influenced by factors such as R$ 6 billion in forgotten PIS and COFINS taxes that the Treasury counted as revenue, but the Central Bank did not.
• 💵 Another discrepancy arises from R$ 8.6 billion in forgotten money in bank accounts by Brazilians, which the Treasury will count as revenue, but the Central Bank will not.
• 🚫 The Central Bank is particularly critical of certain fiscal projects that attempt to circumvent budget constraints, such as a gas subsidy program and tax benefits for a shipbuilding project.
• 📉 The market distrusts the government's fiscal policy due to lack of transparency, which contributes to higher interest rates.
• 📅 The script provides a forecast for SELIC interest rates, expecting increases in November and December 2024, and further increases in January 2025, with a median forecast of 11.75% by the end of July 2025.
• 🏦金融机构如Itaú预测2025年初的SELIC利率将达到12%，显示出对利率进一步上升的预期。
• 💼 The script recommends investing in fixed-income securities such as Treasury bonds, post-fixed CDs, and post-fixed LCIs, and directs readers to the author's investment consultancy for personalized advice.

Q & A

Why is the interest rate high in Brazil?

The high interest rate in Brazil is due to the government's expansionary fiscal policy, which increases public spending and stimulates the economy, leading to inflation. The Central Bank of Brazil has to raise interest rates to control this inflation.

What does the Central Bank of Brazil require from the government to avoid higher interest rates?

The Central Bank of Brazil is asking for transparency in fiscal policy. They believe that without it, the government's expansionary fiscal policy will continue to put upward pressure on prices, necessitating even higher interest rates.

What is an expansionary fiscal policy?

An expansionary fiscal policy is a government strategy that involves increasing public spending to stimulate economic growth. This typically results in a warmer economy and higher inflation, which can necessitate higher interest rates.

What is the difference between the Central Bank of Brazil and the Ministry of Finance in terms of accounting for public deficits?

The Central Bank of Brazil and the Ministry of Finance have a discrepancy in how they account for public deficits. The Central Bank uses a more conservative method, not counting certain revenues like forgotten funds and PIS/PASEP that the Ministry does, leading to a difference of over R$ 41 billion in the last 12 months.

What is the significance of the discrepancy between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance's deficit figures?

The discrepancy signifies a lack of transparency and trust in the government's fiscal reporting. It affects the market's confidence and can lead to higher interest rates as investors become more cautious.

What are some examples of the Ministry of Finance's actions that have raised concerns about transparency?

Examples include attempts to increase gas subsidies through a triangulation involving Caixa Econômica to avoid budget constraints, and granting fiscal benefits for a ship tank project without proper countermeasures, which has been suspended.

What is the current market expectation for SELIC rates by the end of 2024?

As of September 24th, the market expects future interest rates to rise to the highest level of the year. The median forecast for the SELIC rate by the end of 2024 is 11.25%, and it is expected to rise to 11.75% by January 2025.

What is the projected SELIC rate for 2025 according to the median forecast?

The median forecast for the SELIC rate in 2025 is 11.75%, with a projected decrease only at the end of July 2025.

Which financial institution has a higher interest rate projection for 2025 compared to the median forecast?

Itaú Unibanco has a higher projection for the SELIC rate, expecting it to start 2025 at 12%.

What are the recommended investment strategies by Hy Correa Research amidst rising interest rates?

Hy Correa Research recommends investing in fixed-income securities such as Treasury SELIC bonds, post-fixed CDBs, post-fixed LCIs, and post-fixed fixed-income funds.

How can one get personalized investment advice as mentioned in the script?

One can get personalized investment advice by clicking on the first link in the description or comments, which leads to the RC Wealth consultancy services, known for growing rapidly in Brazil.