Kai-Fu Lee analiza el impacto de la IA en la sociedad
Summary
TLDREl texto explora cómo la inteligencia artificial (IA) está revolucionando el trabajo humano, automatizando tanto el trabajo físico como cognitivo. Aunque hay preocupaciones sobre la pérdida de empleos, se argumenta que la IA también creará nuevos empleos, aunque su naturaleza aún sea desconocida. Se sugiere que los gobiernos deben facilitar la reentrenamiento para abordar la brecha de habilidades. Además, se compara el desarrollo de la IA en China y Estados Unidos, destacando la tendencia china a crear 'superapps' y la competencia feroz, y se sugiere que Europa podría beneficiarse de la tensión entre estos dos países.
Takeaways
- 🤖 La inteligencia artificial (IA) es la primera vez que la computadora, el software y el hardware pueden realizar tanto el trabajo cognitivo como el físico, reemplazando partes simples del cerebro y las manos, ojos y pies en diversas tareas.
- 🚗 En el caso de los automóviles, la tecnología no reemplazó completamente al ser humano, sino que cambió las ocupaciones, como de conductor de carruaje a conductor de automóvil.
- ⚙️ La IA tiene el potencial de destruir empleos, ya que puede realizar tareas que antes solo podían ser realizadas por humanos, como la inspección visual en fábricas o la manipulación de hojas de cálculo.
- 🌐 La creación de Internet también generó más empleos de los que se anticipaba, incluyendo trabajos que no se podían imaginar, como el de conductor de Uber.
- 🔮 Aunque la IA puede desplazar empleos, también se cree que generará muchos más nuevos empleos, aunque aún no se conocen sus características exactas.
- 📚 En el libro 'AI Superpowers', se predice que aproximadamente el 40% de los trabajos y tareas actuales podrían ser automatizados en los próximos 15 años.
- 🏢 Existe una brecha de capacitación entre los empleos desplazados, que generalmente son menos cualificados, y los nuevos empleos que se crearán, que requerirán habilidades más especializadas.
- 🏛️ Los gobiernos pueden facilitar la transición al apoyar programas de reentrenamiento y ayuda financiera para las personas afectadas por la automatización.
- 💡 También se menciona la posibilidad de que las empresas proporcionen capacitación a sus empleados, con incentivos fiscales por parte del gobierno para aquellos que lo hagan.
- 🌐 La competencia en China es diferente a la de Estados Unidos, donde se valora más la creación de superaplicaciones que agrupan múltiples servicios, en lugar de una competencia más 'caballerosa'.
Q & A
¿Cómo está cambiando la inteligencia artificial (IA) el trabajo humano?
-La IA está reemplazando partes simples del cerebro humano, así como las manos y ojos, para realizar tareas que antes no había sucedido. Puede llevar a la desaparición de ciertos trabajos, pero también creará nuevos empleos que aún no conocemos.
¿Cómo se compara la revolución de la IA con la del automóvil?
-Mientras que el automóvil reemplazó a los caballos y carretas, la IA podría llevar a una destrucción pura de empleos, pero también es posible que cree muchos más nuevos empleos.
¿Qué tipo de empleos están en riesgo de ser automatizados por la IA?
-Los empleos rutinarios y menos cualificados, como la inspección visual en fábricas o el copiar y pegar en hojas de cálculo, están en riesgo de ser automatizados.
¿Cómo predice el impacto de la IA en el mercado laboral a lo largo de los próximos 15 años?
-Se predice que alrededor del 40% de los trabajos y tareas actuales podrían ser automatizados, lo que implica un desafío significativo en la transición de empleos.
¿Qué papel desempeñan los gobiernos en la transición laboral debido a la IA?
-Los gobiernos pueden ayudar facilitando la reentrenamiento de los trabajadores desplazados, identificando las categorías de empleo en riesgo y las nuevas oportunidades laborales emergentes.
¿Qué estrategias sugiere para abordar la brecha de capacitación en el contexto de la IA?
-Se sugiere que los gobiernos y las empresas colaboren en la creación de programas de capacitación, y que los gobiernos consideren subsidiar parcialmente estos programas o ofrecer rebajas fiscales a las empresas que lo hagan.
¿Qué es la propuesta de ingreso básico universal en relación con la IA y cómo se ve su efectividad?
-El ingreso básico universal es una medida extrema que propone dar dinero a todos, pero hay preocupaciones de que el dinero no se use para capacitación y mejora profesional.
¿Cómo difiere la competencia en la industria de la IA entre China y Estados Unidos?
-Mientras que en Estados Unidos se valora la innovación y se desanima el copiar ideas de otros, en China es común que las empresas aprendan de todos, creando aplicaciones super que a menudo incluyen múltiples funciones.
¿Cómo afecta la tensión entre Estados Unidos y China a las oportunidades para Europa en el mercado de la IA?
-La tensión puede generar oportunidades para que las empresas europeas suministren tecnologías a China, especialmente en sectores donde Estados Unidos ha sido restringido.
¿Qué desafíos enfrenta la industria tecnológica europea en comparación con Estados Unidos y China?
-Aunque hay grandes compañías europeas, el número de pequeñas y medianas empresas tecnológicas en Europa es desproporcionadamente pequeño en comparación con Estados Unidos y China, lo que requiere un enfoque en el desarrollo del ecosistema de emprendimiento y capital de riesgo.
¿Cómo pueden abordarse los problemas éticos y sociales relacionados con la IA?
-Se necesitan soluciones tanto regulatorias como tecnológicas para abordar problemas como la privacidad, la seguridad, el sesgo y la falta de transparencia. Además, es importante invertir en la capacitación y en herramientas que ayuden a los desarrolladores a crear IA más justa y explicable.
Outlines
🤖 La revolución del AI en el mercado laboral
El primer párrafo explora cómo la inteligencia artificial (AI) está transformando el mercado laboral, sustituyendo tanto el trabajo físico como cognitivo. Se compara con la revolución de los automóviles, que no reemplazaron a los humanos sino a los caballos y carruajes, cambiando las profesiones. Sin embargo, la AI puede resultar en una disminución neta de empleos, especialmente en trabajos rutinarios y menos cualificados. A pesar de esto, el autor mantiene una visión optimista sobre la creación de nuevos empleos que aún no se pueden prever, como sucedió con la internet, que generó trabajos inesperados como el de conductor de Uber. El autor, en su libro 'AI Superpowers', predice que aproximadamente el 40% de las tareas actuales podrían ser automatizadas en los próximos 15 años, y aboga por la importancia de la reeducación y la formación para abordar la brecha entre los empleos desplazados y los nuevos empleos generados.
🌏 Diferencias en el desarrollo de AI entre China y Estados Unidos
El segundo párrafo contrasta el enfoque de la innovación y competencia en la industria de la tecnología entre China y Estados Unidos. Mientras que en Estados Unidos se valora la originalidad y se desanima el copiado de ideas, en China se considera normal aprender de todos, lo que lleva a la creación de 'superapps' que agregan múltiples funciones y servicios. Estas aplicaciones, como WeChat, ofrecen una gran conveniencia al usuario y fomentan la creación de ecosistemas completos. Además, se discute cómo la competencia feroz en China puede llevar a la consolidación de superapps, que a su vez pueden reducir la competencia. Se sugiere que este modelo de superapps se ajusta bien al modelo de internet y podría ser estudiado por otros países y sistemas de inversión, aunque también se señala la necesidad de controlar excesos en el uso del poder monopolístico.
🌐 Competencia global y desafíos tecnológicos
Este párrafo aborda la competencia y oportunidades globales en el campo de la tecnología, especialmente en relación con el software. Se menciona que, a pesar de la liderazgo de Estados Unidos en investigación e innovación, China se está moviendo rápidamente en términos de implementación y creación de valor. Se destaca que la tecnología china ha comenzado a tener éxito en otros países, citando ejemplos como Ant Financial y TikTok. Sin embargo, se sugiere que mientras que el software estadounidense probablemente tenga más éxito en países desarrollados, el software chino tiene mayores oportunidades en países en desarrollo, donde las demografías y hábitos culturales son más similares a los de China hace unos años. Se discuten los desafíos tecnológicos como la privacidad, la seguridad, el sesgo y la falta de transparencia en la AI, y se hace un llamado a la necesidad de soluciones tanto regulatorias como tecnológicas para abordar estos problemas.
🛠 Desafíos y oportunidades para Europa en la era de la AI
El cuarto y último párrafo explora cómo la tensión entre Estados Unidos y China puede generar oportunidades para Europa en el mercado tecnológico. Se sugiere que, debido a las restricciones impuestas a algunas compañías chinas para utilizar tecnologías estadounidenses, hay un espacio para que las empresas europeas oferten alternativas. Se destaca la importancia de fomentar el ecosistema de startups y la inversión de capital de riesgo en Europa para asegurar un flujo continuo de nuevas compañías y tecnologías que puedan competir en el mercado global. Se cuestiona si los esfuerzos actuales son suficientes para mantener la competitividad de Europa frente a los gigantes tecnológicos de Estados Unidos y China.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡IA (Inteligencia Artificial)
💡Automatización
💡Desplazamiento de empleos
💡Formación y reentrenamiento
💡Superapps
💡Competencia y mercado
💡Innovación tecnológica
💡Privacidad y seguridad
💡Desigualdad de riqueza
💡Tecnologías de vanguardia
Highlights
AI is capable of replacing both cognitive and physical labor, a first in history.
AI's impact on job displacement could be more significant than past technological shifts.
AI has the potential to completely eliminate certain jobs, unlike previous technologies.
The creation of new jobs by AI is uncertain but optimistically expected, similar to the internet's impact.
AI could automate approximately 40% of current jobs and tasks within the next 15 years.
There is a training gap between the jobs being displaced and the new skilled jobs that AI will create.
Governments should facilitate retraining for people whose jobs are at risk of being automated.
Corporations might be encouraged to provide training for their employees, with possible government incentives.
Universal basic income as a solution to job displacement has potential drawbacks.
The competitive landscape for AI in China differs from the US, with a focus on creating super apps.
Chinese AI implementation is likely to move quickly and create significant value, similar to the US.
Chinese software has started to make successful strides in global markets, rivaling American counterparts.
American software may continue to dominate developed countries, while Chinese software finds opportunities in developing ones.
Technological advancements like AI are inevitable; the focus should be on addressing the challenges they bring.
Solutions to AI's challenges such as privacy, security, bias, and job displacement require a multifaceted approach.
Wealth transfer and job retraining are crucial to address the economic impacts of AI and automation.
US-China tensions may create opportunities for European companies in the Chinese market.
European entrepreneurs and the VC ecosystem need support to ensure a continuous export of technologies.
Transcripts
[Music]
ai is the first time ever that computer
software and hardware can do both our
cognitive as well as our physical labor
it's replacing simple parts of our brain
as well as our hands and eyes and feet
for various types of tasks that has not
happened before you can if you look at
in automobiles it didn't totally replace
us in fact it replaced horses and
carriages and the jobs shifted from the
driver of a carriage to the driver of a
car so there's a one-to-one
transformation with AI it it could be it
doesn't have to be but it could be a
pure decimation of jobs that is certain
types of job and just now be done by AI
for example visual inspection in
factories for example people who copy
and paste a spreadsheet and file and
refil documents whether you're
lectronimo physically those jobs AI can
can do now and when AI does it there
isn't another job created so I do agree
with that but I don't agree that AI will
not create many more new jobs it's just
that we don't know what they are for
example when internet was created it
actually ended up creating a lot of jobs
more than we ever thought including many
jobs that we couldn't possibly imagine
for example the job of an uber driver
right there are tens of millions of such
drivers in the world now providing
wonderful employment but when when
internet was invented none of us could
have predicted that drivers would be one
of the jobs created by internet so
similarly AI will create a lot of jobs
we just don't don't know what they're
going to be so we should have that
optimism those jobs will come out we
should as they come out we should help
facilitate the training but I think they
they will definitely emerge
[Music]
so in my book AI superpowers I predicted
that about 40% of the jobs and tasks
that we do can be automated in the next
15 years while we have gone through many
waves of new technologies displacing and
changing the job market this time is a
little more difficult first the numbers
are a little large for the percent is a
significant percentage secondly the jobs
that are displaced are routine jobs
generally less skilled works and then
the new jobs that will get created are
skilled jobs so there is a training gap
that exists and governments that are
willing to look at how to help this
transition be more harmonious and smooth
needs to look at what are the job
categories that are likely to be
displaced and what are the new jobs that
would be emerging and essentially helped
the process of retraining the people and
I realized that many governments and
countries are looking at not very high
unemployment numbers so they're not yet
alarmed but even if you don't think the
numbers are that large there will
definitely be routine jobs eliminated
and new jobs created with the skill set
mismatch for example we can easily
foresee that many of the jobs in
manufacturing and back office are going
to be displaced and we see also very
clearly healthcare services is one of
the segments that are growing so if
governments can do more diligence a
larger set of jobs that are impacted and
the set of jobs that are needed and
create training programs and perhaps pay
for them out of the governmental budgets
that would be one of the things that
governments can do governments can also
encourage corporations to provide this
kind of training
for example it might be more helpful if
each company take to take care of its
employees provides the training within
the company and in that case the role
government can play is perhaps to give
some tax rebates for corporations that
have their own training so the
corporation bears part of the cost and
the government helps subsidize another
another part there are also people
talking about more extreme measures such
as universal basic income that it is
giving everybody money I think I'm
actually quite cautious about that
approach because when you give people
money there's no guarantee they will
apply it to training to upskilling in
fact there's a high likelihood it might
be used for games entertainment or even
alcohol and drugs in addiction so I
think the money given to people needs to
be directed to ways where people can can
prepare themselves for the next step in
their career
there are similarities both are funded
by venture capital both use the
secondary stock market as exit they both
have entrepreneurs who raise money
Series A Series B C so that part is
similar the the China competitive
landscape is quite different I think the
American entrepreneurs want to do their
thing and they don't they feel it they
frown upon using ideas of other people
so so a company like snapchat would like
to build its product and it feels it
doesn't want to copy features from
Instagram for example so China is
different in the sense that everything
everyone should learn from everyone
everything that is not intellectual
property protected can be looked at
examined and used so the Chinese
products tend to be a collection of
ideas some are original some are
borrowed from other Chinese companies
others are borrowed from American
companies aggregated in a super app
that's quite useful the other difference
is that the American competition is
relatively gentlemanly in the sense that
in the for example when you look at the
food area OpenTable group on Yelp
GrubHub are not competing too much with
each other in China all of these
companies compete and then to create a
winner-take-all super app and I think
the outcome is when you create that
super app in China is called my demand
for food
WeChat for for social and communications
when you create that super app it is a
convenience for the user because
everything you need is in it is fewer
clicks away it's well-organized
it has all your friends in it so it's
very convenient and also creates an
ecosystem where people can connect with
other people and information and
products very very convenient and the
downside of course is that it could
stifle competition so that's that the
Chinese ecosystem tends to create super
apps
create great convenience for the user
and they get to super apps by intense
competition with tenacious entrepreneurs
who play in the winner-take-all
environment in some sense I think that
model better matches the Internet where
if you have a foundational platform with
a super app that people can use and
really live in it the that's what the
internet that fits the internet model
pretty well as long as there are some
controls for excessive monopolies
extension and uses of the in
monopolistic power unfairly then I think
the China model is very much worth
studying by business schools by other
countries by other VCS and other
ecosystems the China will make as much
impact and extract as much value from AI
as United States in pure research
innovations u.s. will still lead the
world but with in terms of
implementation and value creation China
will move very quickly and China has a
bigger pace with more users so in terms
of the global use of Chinese and
American technologies it used to be
everyone in the world used American
technologies I think for the last few
years for the first time we saw some
Chinese software make successful strides
in other countries
one example is ant financial early pay
another example spike dances tick tock
and there will be many many others so I
think that just sick signals that the
China companies and technologies have
matured to a point that they are
competitive with their American
counterpart and we should expect more
Chinese software to be exported to more
countries over time however most likely
American software will continue to be
more successful in developed countries
and Chinese software's opportunity is in
developing countries and the reason is
really twofold the first reason is that
American companies tend to deprioritize
developing countries so they don't care
as much about how it's used in India
Indonesia Brazil Middle East or Africa
but the Chinese developers are willing
to put more energy and localize for
these countries the second reason is
demographics developed countries the
people the civilization the culture the
habits the even the language is more
similar with the US so that includes
Canada Australia New Zealand and most of
Europe and Japan but the developing
countries their demographics young
relatively less resources and money big
interest in entertainment and social
those kinds of habits and games in
developing countries better match China
because China five or ten years ago very
much is similar to what India Indonesia
and their countries are today so Chinese
software is likely to be more successful
in these developing countries so we will
end up seeing both US and Chinese
software as quite successful but
probably to different extent in
different countries
well I don't think it's a question that
want to I don't think we ever really
have choice on technologies when a
technological tidal wave comes whether
its electricity internet or AI we have
to just accept it's coming what we can
do is prepare ourselves for the issues
and try to solve the problems that it
brings about for AI the biggest problems
people see today are privacy security
bias lack of transparency the black box
nature of AI and of course job
displacement and by AI and automation as
well as wealth inequality each of this
requires a different set of solutions on
privacy I think we need both regulations
and all kinds of regulations as well as
technological solutions for example when
electricity was became popular people
got electrocuted and circuit breakers
were invented when internet were
connected was connected to PCs viruses
spread to PCs and then antivirus
software was created so we need some
kind of technological approach to deal
with the privacy problems in the same
with security when security for example
deep fake and people hacking into AI
models so again those need to be
addressed
much like the security software or the
antivirus software in terms of bias and
the transparency we need to invest in
technologies that help AI explain itself
and also help AI developers be aware
when there might be bias created in the
software most of the bias is created as
a result of having imbalanced a training
set so if you have a training set with
95% men 5% women it might end up
discriminating or at least not
representing women in terms of the the
predictions of the model so I think the
engineers and developers need to be
trained that transparency explain
ability are an important part of
developing AI
and then tools need to be developed to
try to catch these problems before they
become really bad and this awareness and
education and then lastly on job
displacement and wealth inequality I
think several steps need to be
considered one is a shift of the wealth
because the rich is getting richer the
poor is getting poorer partly because of
technology and now it will be
exacerbated by AI so how to provide a
acceptable transfer of wealth from the
newly created super rich to help the
people whose jobs might be lost or
replaced
so that wealth transfer it needs to be
designed for each different country may
take a different approach to deal with
that problem also jobs retraining are
needed always governments should watch
for what kind of jobs are emerging as a
result of AI and what jobs are emerging
as a result of society with AI these
include not just high end jobs like data
data scientist and AI engineers but also
we're going to need a lot of robot
repair people and we're going to need
people who label data and we're going to
need services jobs because people will
live longer so they will so more people
should go into services not into doing
routine work so I think a systematic way
to examine what jobs are being created
either by AI technology or as a result
of society evolving aging and so on and
making sure that our schools and
vocational training and also government
subsidies are applied so that enough
people are moving into these jobs
finally there are social issues with
respect to some of these jobs for
example service jobs let's say a nanny
or elderly care in most countries that's
not considered the most desirable or
highest pay the job so what can be done
to entice people to go into these job
categories
does there need to be professional
companies with career paths for people
in these professions or does it need to
be a minimum wage for these jobs or does
there need to be social re-education for
people to respect these people who are
helping other people so unless the
social status and the pay is fixed it's
very hard just to say we want to retrain
people to be nannies and elderly care
and all of these things I think are
challenging and difficult but they can
be done and must be done so that the
world will embrace AI with much much
more benefits than downside
[Music]
China has been a very different market
with different language user habits so
that has been one inhibitor for European
companies to enter going forward I think
new opportunities will arise because of
the us-china tension there will be
Chinese companies that will prefer or
even be required to select European
technologies for example Huawei is
currently unable to use some American
technologies so now is a good chance for
the European substitutes to supply to
hallway so while I don't like us-china
tension but that tension does generate
opportunities for for Europe and I think
China will open its market to more to
the whole world
so whatever US was able to achieve in
helping China open this market I think
the same will apply for Europe so there
are multiple benefits
the major question I would ask is that
there are a lot of great existing large
European companies I think they will
stand to benefit I am a little worried
about European entrepreneurs if you look
at European small medium business
especially in tech as a percentage of US
and China
the numbers are disproportionately small
because if you look at giant companies
there are many great European companies
if you look at small startups that are
you know one to ten years old the
numbers in Europe are very small
compared to us in China so in order to
make this sustainable for Europe to have
a continuous set of companies and
technologies that export to China and
other countries it's important to
address the VC and entrepreneurial
ecosystem to ensure that the new ones
are emerging at an appropriate
percentage otherwise Europe has the risk
of falling
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