Could Texas Turn Blue in 2024?
Summary
TLDRThis video explores Texas's political shift towards the Democrats, historically a conservative stronghold. With a shrinking Republican vote margin in recent elections, Texas is turning 'purple,' potentially impacting the Electoral College. The video delves into Texas's political history, demographic changes, and the implications for future elections, emphasizing the state's growing competitiveness and its 40 Electoral College votes.
Takeaways
- 🗳️ Texas, traditionally a conservative stronghold, has shown signs of turning 'purple', with voting margins narrowing in recent elections.
- 📊 The state's shift towards Democrats has been driven by demographic changes, including an influx of residents from liberal states and a growing population of young, urban professionals.
- 🏙️ Major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio have seen significant population growth, which has contributed to the political shift.
- 📈 Texas's political transformation is exemplified by counties like Harris and Fort Bend, which have swung from Republican to Democratic majorities.
- 🔍 The 2028 Republican National Convention is set to be in Houston, reflecting the GOP's concern over Texas's potential political shift.
- 🤔 Despite recent trends, Texas is not expected to vote for Democrats in the 2024 presidential election, but the margin of victory will be closely watched.
- 🏆 The competitiveness of Texas could have significant implications for the Electoral College, with 40 votes at stake.
- 🔄 The state's political landscape is changing due to a combination of factors, including suburban shifts, population growth, and economic development.
- 📉 Republicans have managed to maintain their support in rural areas, which has helped them stay competitive despite the overall trend.
- 🌐 The video encourages viewers to consider the broader context of political shifts and to engage with resources like Brilliant.org to enhance their understanding of complex issues.
Q & A
Why is Texas often considered a key state in American politics?
-Texas is often considered a key state in American politics due to its large population and significant number of Electoral College votes, which currently stands at 40. Historically, it has been a stronghold for the Republican party, but recent shifts in voting patterns have made it a state to watch in future elections.
What is the historical voting pattern of Texas in U.S. presidential elections?
-Historically, Texas has been a conservative-leaning state, voting heavily for Republican candidates such as Ronald Reagan and both Bush presidents. However, in recent elections, the state has shown a trend towards a more competitive political landscape, with the margins of victory for Republican candidates narrowing.
How did Texas's political landscape change from the 19th century to the 20th century?
-In the 19th and early 20th century, Texas voted consistently Democrat as the Democratic party represented the white ruling class and supported segregation. However, as Republicans took up the conservative mantle, Texas gradually shifted towards the Republican party, with a complete shift by the early 2000s.
What demographic changes are contributing to Texas's political shift towards the Democrats?
-Texas's political shift towards the Democrats is being influenced by rapid population growth in major cities, with significant migration from both the southern border and other Democrat-leaning states like New York and California. Additionally, a strong state economy has attracted young people who generally lean Democrat.
How has the voting pattern in Texas's major cities changed in recent years?
-In recent years, major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio have seen a shift in voting patterns, with traditionally Republican suburbs experiencing an increase in Democratic support. This is evident in counties like Harris and Fort Bend, which have shown significant increases in Democratic votes and margins.
What impact could Texas turning 'purple' or 'blue' have on U.S. presidential elections?
-If Texas were to turn 'purple' or 'blue,' it could drastically impact U.S. presidential elections due to its 40 Electoral College votes. It would essentially wipe out the Republicans' Electoral College advantage, potentially making it easier for Democratic candidates to win the presidency.
Why did Republicans choose Houston for the 2028 Republican National Convention?
-Republicans chose Houston for the 2028 Republican National Convention as a strategic move to solidify their support in Texas, a state that has been shifting politically and could become competitive in future elections.
What was the margin of victory for Republican presidential candidates in Texas in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections?
-In 2012, Mitt Romney won Texas by 15 points, in 2016, Donald Trump won by 9 points, and in 2020, Trump's margin was reduced to 5.5 points, indicating a trend towards a more competitive political landscape in Texas.
How did the voting patterns in Harris County change between 2012 and 2020?
-Harris County, which covers Houston, voted narrowly for Obama in 2012, but by 2020, it voted for Biden by 13.3 points, reflecting a significant shift towards the Democrats.
What is the significance of the 2022 midterms for Texas's political future?
-The 2022 midterms showed that Republicans were able to improve their margins in Texas, with a five-point swing away from the Democrats. This suggests that while Texas may not go blue in 2024, the trends indicate that it could become more competitive in the near future.
What does the future hold for Texas's political landscape according to the video?
-According to the video, if demographic trends continue, Texas will become increasingly competitive in future elections, potentially becoming a 'purple' state. This could have significant ramifications for presidential elections due to its large number of Electoral College votes.
Outlines
🗳️ Texas' Shifting Political Landscape
This paragraph discusses the evolving political climate in Texas, historically a conservative stronghold. It highlights the state's traditional Republican support, evidenced by its votes for figures like Ronald Reagan and the Bush family. However, recent elections show a narrowing margin of Republican victory, suggesting a 'purple' shift. The 2028 Republican National Convention's early scheduling in Houston reflects concern over this trend. The video will delve into Texas's political history, the reasons behind its Democratic shift, and the implications for future elections, including the potential impact on the Electoral College.
📊 Demographic and Political Changes in Texas
The second paragraph explores the demographic and political changes contributing to Texas's political transformation. It notes the state's historical conservatism, from its secession during the Civil War to its support for segregationist policies. The paragraph details how Texas transitioned from a Democratic to a Republican stronghold, losing all major state offices by 2002. However, recent trends show suburban professionals and a growing, diverse population, especially in major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, are increasingly voting Democratic. This shift, combined with internal migration from traditionally Democratic states and a strong state economy, suggests Texas could become a competitive state in future elections, significantly affecting the Electoral College landscape.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Swing States
💡Lone Star State
💡Purple State
💡Electoral College
💡Demographic Trends
💡Political Pundits
💡Population Growth
💡Internal Migration
💡Rapid Population Growth
💡Voting Records
💡Political Shift
Highlights
Texas, historically a conservative stronghold, is becoming increasingly competitive in elections.
The state's voting patterns have shifted from heavily Republican to a more balanced mix.
Texas voted for Romney by 15 points in 2012, for Trump by 9 points in 2016, and only 5.5 points in 2020.
The trend suggests Texas could be within the margin of error in future elections.
Republicans are concerned about Texas turning purple, as evidenced by the 2028 RNC being held in Houston.
Texas has been consistently conservative since its formation in the mid-1800s.
The state's political shift is driven by demographic changes and migration to major cities.
Suburban professionals and young people are increasingly leaning Democrat.
Population growth in Texas cities is fueled by migration from Democrat-leaning states and a strong state economy.
Harris County, which covers Houston, has seen a significant shift towards the Democrats.
Fort Bend County flipped from Republican to Democrat, with a significant increase in voter turnout.
Dallas County's vote margin for Democrats increased dramatically from 2012 to 2020.
Austin's Travis County, a tech hub, saw all counties in the metro area vote Democratic by 2020.
In 2018, Beto O'Rourke nearly unseated incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate election.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton claimed that Texas would have gone blue in 2020 without his intervention.
Despite recent trends, Texas is unlikely to go blue in 2024, but the margin of victory will be telling.
If Texas becomes competitive, it could significantly impact the Electoral College dynamics for Republicans.
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Transcripts
this video was brought to you by
brilliant as we head into the final
Sprint of the 2024 campaign many pundits
and politicos are understandably focused
on the key swing States like Nevada
Arizona Wisconsin Michigan North
Carolina Georgia and especially
Pennsylvania which looks ever more
likely to be the state that actually
decides the election however even if
it's not a swing state per se one state
that's arguably flown under the
political radar is the Lone Star State
of Texas for most of recent history
Texas has been considered a flagship
state for American conservatism it voted
heavily for Ronald Reagan and both
bushes who hailed from the state and
even when Democrats Bill Clinton and
Barack Obama were elected in their
Landslide victories Texas still went
comfortably red slowly but surely
however Texas is turning purple it voted
for Romney in2 by 15 points but by 2016
it voted for Trump by nine and in 2020
it only voted for Trump by 5.5 points if
this trend continues it's likely that
Texas could be in the margin of error
range this time round however the
thought of Texas turning purple or even
blue and the DraStic impact this would
have on Electoral College calculations
has clearly terrified some Republicans
who have made Houston the site of the
2028 Republican National Convention four
years in advance so in this video we're
going to take a look at Texas's
political history why it's shifting
towards the Democrats and why even if
it's probably a long shot for the
Democrats this time round it's
definitely a state you'll want to look
at in the near
[Music]
future before we start if you haven't
already please consider subscribing and
ringing the bell to stay in the loop and
be notified when we release new videos
but let's start with some history ever
since modern Texas was formed in the mid
1800s it's always been conservative
leaning It joined the Confederacy during
the Civil War and was part of the Jim
Crow South with laws and local statutes
legalizing racial segregation in place
until the mid 1900s in the 19th and
early 20th century when the Democratic
party represented the white ruling class
and supported segregation Texas voted
consistently Democrat however as
Republicans took up the conservative
mantle Texas gradually went red in 1993
Democrats lost the second senate seat
having lost the first one after Lyndon B
Johnson resigned from his seat to become
vice president in 1961 in 1994 they also
lost the governorship by 1996 they'd
lost the Upper House of the Texas state
legislature and by 2002 they'd lost the
lower house too gifting the Republicans
a governmental Trifecta for the first
time since reconstruction however in
recent years it looks like Texas has
been slowly moving moving back towards
the Democrats since the election of
Donald Trump many of the coalitions that
have made up Texas politics have been
shifting in the suburbs White Collar
upper middle class professionals who
reliably voted Republicans for decades
are now shifting towards the Democrats
while Democrats continue to do well in
the city centers this trend has been
supercharged by a rapid population
growth in Texas major cities with Dallas
Houston Austin and San Antonio all
seeing record level of migration both
from the southern border as well as
internally from the United States much
of this internal migration has come from
Democrat leaning States like New York
and California and a strong State
economy has also attracted a lot of
young people who also generally lean
Democrat and we can even see this shift
in specific counties voting records for
instance Harris County which covers
Houston voted narrowly for Obama in 2012
after Obama only actually won by two
points during his 2008 landslide in 2016
though Harris County went for Clinton by
12.4 points and in 2020 Biden won it by
13.3 points similarly neighboring Fort
Ben County actually flipped from voting
6.8 points for Romney in 2012 to voting
for Biden by over 10 points in 2020 with
the total number of votes increasing
from 217,000 to 353,000 in that same
time period similarly Dallas County
voted for Obama in 2012 by 15.4 points
but went for Biden by over 30 points and
the neighboring Taran County flipped
from voting 15.7 points for Romney to
narrowly voting for Biden again in both
cases the raw number of votes for the
two parties candidates also increased
dramatically from 2012 to 2020 but the
most dramatic shift has come in Austin
the capital of Texas and a booming Tech
Hub in 2012 Travis County was the only
County in the Austin Metro area that
voted Democrats
but by 2020 Travis Hayes and Williamson
all voted Democratic while Republican
margins were squeezed in the neighboring
counties of bolop and Cadwell in the
aggregate this has made Texas
increasingly competitive in 2018 for
instance b o rock nearly oued incumbent
Ted Cruz at the senate election and
Trump only won the state by about five
points in 2020 in a surprisingly candid
comments Texas Attorney General Ken
Paxton actually claimed in an interview
that Texas would have gone blue in 2020
if it wasn't for his methods to block
mailin ballot applications now it's
worth saying that Republicans actually
improved their margins in the 2022
midterms with a five-point swing away
from the Democrats and incumbent Greg
Abott easily beat oo by 10 points for a
second term as Governor given recent
results and the fact that Harris isn't a
stunningly popular candidate Texas looks
unlikely to go Blue in 2024 most polling
currently gives Trump something like a
five-point lead over Harris in the load
Star State although this is all
pre-debate polling and the most recent
Emerson poll again pre-debate gave Trump
a three-point lead nonetheless if the
aformentioned trends continue and
Democrats are able to limit their losses
in rural areas Texas could plausibly
become competitive in the near future in
a similar fashion to Georgia and this
would have massive ramifications for
presidential elections that's because
Texas has 40 Electoral College votes and
if it went blue or even became
competitive this would essentially Wipe
Out the Republicans Electoral College
Advantage for context because of the way
Democrats votes are concentrated they
currently have to win the popular vote
by about three points in order to win
the electoral college now this is in
part because a significant number of
democrat votes are essentially wasted in
Texas but if Texas became purple that
would quickly change all in all even if
Texas looks unlikely to go Blue if
demographic Trends continue it will
become a real possibility in the real
future so this time round it's worth
paying attention not only to Trump's
margin of Victory assuming he does win
in Texas but also the accompanying
senate election between Colin ored and
incumbent Ted Cruz Cruz isn't the most
popular politician in the state and if
he loses it could bode well for
Democrats going forward with issues like
these it's often hard to come to the
right conclusions so if you want to
improve your decision making you'll want
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