Retired colonel says this move could be a sign of a rift between US-Israel relations

Summary

在MSNBC的一次采访中，美国总统拜登表示，以色列进入拉法为其划下的红线，这将是一场灾难，因为那里有超过一百万的人民避难，且无处可去。尽管拜登发出警告，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡仍表示将继续对拉法的军事行动，以根除哈马斯，并可能扩展到黎巴嫩南部。同时，以色列和哈马斯在释放人质和停火问题上的谈判陷入僵局，双方均坚持各自的立场，使得和平前景变得渺茫。

Takeaways

• 🚨 拜登总统明确表示，以色列进入拉法赫将是一条红线，因为那里有超过一百万的居民，而且他们无处可去。
• 🗓 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，尽管拜登总统发出警告，但对拉法赫的攻势仍将继续，他认为10月7日是一个重要的日期，要确保不再发生类似事件。
• 🥊 内塔尼亚胡强调，以色列国防军（IDF）进入拉法赫打击哈马斯的行动可能需要两个月或更短的时间，且在达成协议前不会有战斗暂停。
• 💥 内塔尼亚胡还提到，可能会将军事行动扩展到黎巴嫩南部，那里已经发生了多次以色列和真主党之间的交火。
• 🛣️ 以色列正在加沙地带修建一条公路，这表明以色列试图在加沙保持一定程度的军事存在，并可能使其成为永久性的存在。
• 🏡 哈马斯领导人伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚表示，哈马斯仍愿意谈判，但指责以色列是导致谈判进展停滞的原因。
• 🕊️ 拜登总统在采访中提到，中央情报局（CIA）局长正在以色列与摩萨德（Mossad）进行会谈，但以色列和哈马斯并未公开进行对话。
• 🔥 哈马斯在开罗的上一轮谈判中退出，而以色列从未参与，因为他们认为哈马斯未能满足其最新要求，包括提供活着和死去的人质名单。
• 🏢 以色列坚持战争只会在哈马斯被完全摧毁后结束，这意味着他们可能会进入拉法赫，无论是在达成停火协议之前还是之后。
• 🚢 有消息称，用于新浮动码头的设备正在运往加沙，但五角大楼表示，完成码头至少需要一个月的时间。
• 🥢 尽管有援助物资正在运送，但目前加沙地带的居民面临的饥饿和可能的疾病问题仍然非常严重。

Q & A

美国总统拜登提到的“红线”是指什么？

美国总统拜登提到的“红线”是指以色列进攻拉法赫（Rafah），因为那里有超过一百万的人在寻求庇护，而且几乎没有其他地方可以去。

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对于进攻拉法赫的态度是怎样的？

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，尽管美国总统拜登发出了警告，以色列仍将继续在拉法赫对哈马斯进行军事行动，他认为自己的“红线”是10月7日，并确保不会再次发生类似事件。

内塔尼亚胡提到的军事行动可能持续多久？

内塔尼亚胡提到，以色列国防军（IDF）进入拉法赫铲除哈马斯的行动可能需要两个月，或许少于两个月，并且在达成某种协议将人质带回家之前，战斗不会暂停。

以色列和哈马斯之间的谈判现状如何？

以色列和哈马斯之间目前并没有公开进行谈判。哈马斯退出了在开罗的最后一轮谈判，而以色列从未参与，因为他们认为哈马斯没有满足其最新要求，包括提供活着的人质和已死的人质的名单。

哈马斯对于恢复谈判的立场是什么？

哈马斯领导人伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚（Ismail Haniyeh）在电视讲话中表示，哈马斯仍然愿意进行谈判，但他认为以色列应该为谈判缺乏进展负责，并坚持在达成协议之前不会释放人质。

美国在以色列和哈马斯之间的谈判中扮演什么角色？

美国中央情报局（CIA）局长在以色列与摩萨德（Mossad）的同行会面，但以色列和哈马斯之间并没有公开对话，美国在这些谈判中试图促成停火和解决人质问题。

以色列在加沙地带建立的军事道路有什么战略意义？

以色列建立的军事道路意味着他们试图在加沙地带保持一定程度的军事存在，并尽可能使其成为永久性存在。这条道路将帮助以色列军队快速进出加沙，可能用于对恐怖分子的突袭、火箭发射设施等。

目前加沙地带的人道主义援助情况如何？

目前加沙地带急需人道主义援助，美国军方正努力安装一个新的浮动码头以便船只能够抵达并提供必要的支持。同时，有一艘驳船正从塞浦路斯前往加沙，预计能够带来约200卡车的食物和其他必需品。

以色列和哈马斯的冲突对美国与以色列的关系有何影响？

以色列的行动使得美国总统拜登在国内外面临压力，一方面需要平息阿拉伯裔美国人社区的担忧，另一方面又要展示对以色列的强力支持。这使得美国在国际论坛上或与欧洲盟友及国际公众舆论中难以为其政策辩护，可能对美以关系造成损害。

以色列和哈马斯的冲突对加沙地带平民的影响是什么？

以色列和哈马斯的冲突导致加沙地带平民遭受严重的人道主义危机，包括食物短缺、医疗资源匮乏以及安全威胁。冲突还可能导致大量平民伤亡和流离失所。

以色列的军事行动对加沙地带的基础设施有何影响？

以色列的军事行动可能导致加沙地带的基础设施遭到严重破坏，包括住宅、公共设施和交通网络。这将加剧人道主义危机，并对未来的重建工作造成巨大挑战。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 拜登总统谈及以色列对拉法赫的行动

美国总统拜登在MSNBC的采访中表示，以色列进入拉法赫将是一条红线，因为那里有超过一百万的居民，而且他们无处可去。尽管拜登发出了警告，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡却表示将按计划进行军事行动，声称他的红线是10月7日，并强调不会再次发生那样的事件。内塔尼亚胡还提到，以色列国防军进入拉法赫打击哈马斯可能需要两个月或更短的时间，并且在达成某种协议前不会有战斗暂停。他还暗示可能会将军事行动扩展到黎巴嫩南部。

05:00

🤝 以色列与哈马斯的谈判僵局

尽管拜登总统强调了以色列与哈马斯之间缺乏公开对话的问题，哈马斯在开罗的上一轮谈判后退出，而以色列从未参与，因为他们认为哈马斯未能满足其最新要求，包括提供活着的人质和已死的人质的名单。哈马斯坚持要求永久停火和以色列国防军完全撤出加沙。以色列则坚持战争只会在哈马斯被完全摧毁后结束，这意味着将进入拉法赫。此外，以色列还表示战争结束后，以色列国防军将在加沙拥有完全的控制权，可以自由进入任何地方。哈马斯领导人伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚在电视讲话中表示，哈马斯仍愿意谈判，但指责以色列是缺乏进展的原因，并坚持在达成协议前不会有人质获释。

10:03

🛠️ 以色列在加沙地带的军事行动与基础设施建设

CNN军事分析师、退役美国空军上校塞德里克·莱顿讨论了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡关于入侵拉法赫的评论，这可能会预示着总统与总理之间的摊牌。以色列有军事上的必要性，即在拉法赫摧毁哈马斯，因为那里似乎是集中了大量人口的南部地区。然而，由于当地居民众多，将他们撤离到安全地带将非常困难。此外，美国军方正在努力在加沙建立一个新的浮动码头，尽管需要至少一个月的时间来完成，但这是迫切需要的。美国军方需要迅速行动，以确保必要的物资能够及时到达加沙。以色列还在加沙地带建设一条公路，这表明他们试图在那里保持一定程度的军事存在，并尽可能使其成为永久性的。

Keywords

💡President Biden

美国总统拜登，在视频中提到他对以色列可能进入拉法赫的行动设定了红线。这表明了美国政府对于以色列军事行动的立场和警告，是视频中讨论的核心政治人物之一。

💡red line

红线是指一个国家或政治领导人设定的不可逾越的界限，一旦跨越将引发严重后果。在视频中，拜登总统明确表示以色列进入拉法赫将是不可接受的行动，这是他的红线。

💡Rafah

拉法赫是加沙地带的一个城市，视频中提到如果以色列军队进入该地区，可能会造成严重的人道主义危机，因为它是一个人口密集的避难所。

💡Netanyahu

内塔尼亚胡是以色列的总理，在视频中他表明即使面临国际压力，以色列仍将继续对加沙地带的哈马斯进行军事行动，显示了以色列政府的坚定立场。

💡IDF

以色列国防军（Israel Defense Forces，简称IDF）是以色列的国家军队。在视频中，IDF的行动和计划是讨论的焦点，特别是关于是否进入拉法赫以及如何回应哈马斯的行动。

💡Hezbollah

真主党是黎巴嫩的一个政治和军事组织，在视频中提到与以色列之间的紧张关系和边境冲突，显示了中东地区复杂的政治和军事局势。

💡hostages

人质指的是被非法拘禁并通常用于政治或军事目的的人。在视频中，以色列和哈马斯之间关于人质的谈判是解决冲突的关键问题之一。

💡ceasefire

停火协议是指冲突双方达成的暂时或永久停止敌对行动的协议。视频中提到，以色列和哈马斯之间达成停火协议的可能性很小，因为双方在关键问题上立场坚定。

💡Gaza

加沙地带是一个位于以色列和埃及之间的巴勒斯坦领土，视频中的主要冲突发生在这个地区。以色列和哈马斯之间的军事行动对加沙地带的居民造成了严重影响。

💡military operations

军事行动指的是军队进行的战斗或其他形式的行动，以实现战略或战术目标。视频中提到以色列可能会扩大其军事行动到黎巴嫩南部，这表明了冲突可能进一步升级。

💡international community

国际社会指的是全球各国和国际组织的总和，它们在处理国际事务和危机时通常会采取共同的立场或行动。在视频中，国际社会对于以色列可能进入拉法赫的行动表示担忧，担心这会导致灾难性后果。

Highlights

美国总统拜登在MSNBC的采访中表示，以色列进入拉法赫将是一条红线。

拉法赫有超过一百万的居民在避难，而且实际上没有其他地方可以去。

以色列表示将撤离拉法赫的居民，但该国其他地区几乎每个地方都在发生战斗和轰炸。

尽管拜登总统发出了不要越过红线的警告，内塔尼亚胡总理仍表示将推进对拉法赫的攻势。

内塔尼亚胡总理提到，以色列国防军进入拉法赫清除哈马斯的行动可能需要两个月或更短的时间。

内塔尼亚胡强调，除非达成某种协议以带回人质，否则战斗不会暂停。

内塔尼亚胡还提到可能会将军事行动扩展到黎巴嫩南部。

以色列北部有数万人因与黎巴嫩真主党的交火而被迫离开家园。

内塔尼亚胡表示，以色列将尽一切努力恢复安全并带回人质。

以色列和哈马斯没有公开对话，CIA局长访问以色列与摩萨德进行会谈。

哈马斯在开罗的上一轮谈判中离开，以色列从未参与，因为哈马斯未能满足其最新要求。

哈马斯坚持要求实现永久停火和以色列国防军完全撤出加沙。

以色列坚持战争只会在完全摧毁哈马斯后才结束，这意味着将进入拉法赫。

以色列表示战后以色列国防军将在加沙内部自由行动。

哈马斯领导人伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚表示愿意谈判，但指责以色列阻碍进展。

美国试图在支持以色列和满足阿拉伯美国社区关切之间找到平衡。

美国在国际论坛和欧洲盟友面前难以为以色列政策辩护。

美国军方需要迅速行动安装新的浮动码头，以支持加沙的迫切需求。

从塞浦路斯到加沙的驳船上装载的物资可能有助于缓解加沙人民的饥饿和必需品短缺问题。

以色列正在加沙地带建设一条道路，可能用于加强军事存在和快速行动。

Transcripts

President Biden, etc., an interv

on MSNBC on Saturday

that, look, his red line

would be Israel going into Rafah

which even Israel's

closest allies

and many other countries

in the international community

would be a catastrophe

because you have well

over a million people

there who are sheltering.

And frankly,

there is nowhere for them to go.

Israel has said

that they would evacuate them el

but there is fighting and bombin

taking place in virtually

every other part of the country.

And yet, despite

that warning from President Bide

of not crossing that red line,

we have Prime Minister

Netanyahu saying that

that offensive in Rafah will, in

go ahead, saying that his red li

is October 7th

and making sure

that that doesn't happen again.

And he

he said that

an IDF incursion

into Rafah to root out Hamas

there

could take two months,

perhaps even less than two month

and that there would be no pause

in the fighting

until there is

some kind of a deal made

to bring the hostages home.

He also left open

the possibility

of expanding

military operations

into southern Lebanon,

where, of course,

there have been many back and fo

fires firing between Hezbollah

and the Israelis.

In fact, you have hundreds

or you have tens of thousands of

who've been forced to leave thei

in northern Israel.

And this is what Netanyahu said

about ensuring those people

can go back home. Listen.

So we'll do whatever

we can to restore security for t

and bring them home.

And I hope we can do that

if we have to do it with a milit

means will do so.

If there's a diplomatic way

to achieve it, fine,

but ultimately will do it.

It is worth pointing out, Erica,

that that Hezbollah, excuse me,

is a much more formidable fighti

that really dwarfs

the capabilities of Hamas.

The Israelis themselves

estimate, at least

before the war, estimated

that there were hundreds,

maybe thousands of rockets

stored in people's

private homes

near the border

within firing range of Israel.

When it comes to the negotiation

to get those hostages

back, the hostages back in

any kind of a potential cease fi

the hopes of that happening

any time soon are pretty

dim at this stage of the game. Y

President Biden pointing out

that the CIA director was in Isr

to meet with his Mossad counterp

But the problem is

that the Israelis

and Hamas

are not actually talking to each

at least not publicly.

You had Hamas leaving

the last round of talks

in Cairo on Thursday

and the Israelis were never ther

in the first place

because they say that

Hamas has failed

to address its latest demands,

which include

providing a list of hostages

which are alive

and which hostages are dead.

I mean,

Hamas says that it cannot provid

Hamas is also digging in

on its key demands

of a permanent cease fire

and a full withdrawal of the IDF

from Gaza.

Both things

that are going to be very diffic

for the Israelis to agree to

because they continue to insist

that the war will only end,

as you heard the prime minister

saying there,

until Hamas is completely destro

And that means going into Rafah,

whether that's

before or after any kind of a ce

deal is made.

And they also say that

the day after the war,

the IDF will have full control,

free rein to go wherever they wa

inside of Gaza.

And the IDF will also continue t

the borders of everything

going in and out of the territor

We also heard from the Hamas

leader, Ismail Haniyeh,

who gave a televised address say

that Hamas is still open to talk

but he says that

it is Israel

who is to blame

for the lack of of progress.

And he also insisted

that there would be no hostages

until there's a deal. Erica. Wow

And as we watch all of that,

a lot of really important

developments tonight.

Scott, appreciate it. Thank you.

I want to bring in our CNN

military analyst, retired U.S.

Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighto

Colonel, always good to see you.

First, I'd just love to get your

as we start to Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu's comments

about invading Rafah,

which, of course,

come on

the heels of what we heard

from President Biden in

that interview yesterday.

Yeah, Eric, I think this is

really setting things up

for a showdown between President

and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

It looks as if both sides, both

side and the Israeli side,

are basically digging in

in their respective positions.

The Israelis

have that military imperative

of basically destroying Hamas

and doing it at Rafah

because everybody seems

to be concentrated

in that area there in the southe

part of Gaza.

The problem with that, as Scott

pointed out in his reporting, a

plus people are right there

because they had to flee to that

and to get them out of there,

to get them out of harm's way

is going to be really difficult

to do under the best of circumst

And in these conditions,

those circumstances are certainl

quite difficult.

So it's one of those areas

where

we're going to see a lot of diff

a lot of problems.

And this could portend a rift in

Israeli relations,

at least to some extent,

and that could be really dangero

for any peace prospects for this

Were you surprised at all

at how far we saw

the president

go in those comments yesterday

saying that Rafah would be a red

when asked about other specific

red lines?

He was a little less committal,

if you will,

but said there can't be another

another 30,000 Palestinian

civilian deaths,

for example,

the fact that the rhetoric is no

ramping up.

And to your point,

the impact that this could have

moving forward,

especially given the US role

in these talks, in these efforts

to try to get to a cease fire,

to try to get some of the hostag

How damaging could this be at th

This could be very damaging.

It could be damaging

for the Israeli hostages

that are still being held by Ham

It could be damaging

for all of the Palestinian civil

that are

caught in this in Gaza,

especially in Rafah.

And, you know,

from a political standpoint,

I think what you're seeing here

is, on the one hand, domesticall

President Biden is trying very h

to placate concerns

from the Arab American community

And on the other hand,

he still wants to show himself

as being a strong supporter of I

But the things that Israel is do

that make it very difficult for

to, in essence, sell

those policies or defend those p

in international forums like the

or with European allies in the E

Union

and with international public

opinion at large.

And so this is where the United

finds itself,

and it's going to be really diff

for them to work with the United

to be in lockstep with Israel

at this particular juncture.

Let's talk about the aid situati

Some news today

that some of the equipment

for this new floating

pier is actually on its way to G

So the Pentagon has said

that pier is going to take

probably at least a month to con

It would require as many

as a thousand troops

to get that completed.

That's a long timeline.

When we look at just

how acute the needs are today,

what do you make of that timelin

Well, it's certainly a long time

I do think that it is possible

to do some things.

I a lot quicker than that timeli

For example,

we know that there is a barge

that's on its way from Cyprus

right now to Gaza,

or at least

it's supposed to be on its way.

Sometime today.

If that is the case,

then that will help alleviate

some of the things that are

that are plaguing the population

in terms of hunger and possible

But the fact is that the militar

the U.S.

military is going to have

to move very quickly

to install this floating pier

and to make sure

that the requisite number of shi

can actually come in to provide

the kind of support that's neces

I think

it is

something that

should have been done a bit earl

but sometimes we just know

how difficult the situation is o

IT situation is

until we start seeing the pictur

from places like us.

One country

official said that

this new Marine corridor

would bring some 200 truckloads

via barge from Cyprus to Gaza ea

Do you think that is a realistic

I did a little quick math just b

how many containers can fit on b

and how many

shipping containers can fit on t

And it does seem a realistic pos

assuming that

all of the flows from places lik

are going to be uninterrupted

and they're not going to be

any security issues

once everything gets to Gaza.

So assuming all of that works pe

it is realistic

that somewhere

around the order of 200 truckloa

of foodstuffs

and other necessary equipment

can get into Gaza using this met

Of course,

the other thing is,

I think

when before

this crisis

occurred on the 7th of October.

I read

somewhere around 400 to 500 truc

that were needed just to sustain

the population.

So this is about

a little less than half of

what they really need in order

to sustain themselves.

Really quickly,

before I let you go,

we have a CNN

analysis of satellite images whi

Israel building this road

that runs across the Gaza Strip.

The Israeli military has said

that route will help

to establish

an operational foothold in Gaza.

What does that say to you?

Well, it says to me that the

Israelis are going to try to mai

some degree of presence

of military presence in Gaza,

and they're going to make it

as much of a permanent presence

as they possibly can.

Basically,

this road will facilitate them

getting in and out very quickly.

And it may facilitate

the idea of lightning raids agai

terror cells,

you know,

installations of that type,

possibly rocket launch

facilities, things like that.

They're building it for military

and they want to continue

to have a say in Gaza

and basically the security situa

there and do want to try

to protect themselves

from Hamas at this point.

Colonel Cedric Leighton,

always appreciate your insight

and your expertise. Thank you.