Is the weather actually becoming more extreme? - R. Saravanan

Summary

The video script discusses the distinction between weather and climate, highlighting the increase in extreme weather events over the past 40 years. It explains that weather is short-term atmospheric conditions, predictable with around 80% accuracy for a week, while climate represents long-term averages. Climate predictions, focusing on boundary conditions like solar radiation, can forecast patterns over decades. The script emphasizes that minor changes in climate, such as a 1-degree Celsius increase in Earth's temperature, significantly amplify atmospheric energy, leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, and storms. It concludes that while weather remains inherently chaotic, human activities are accelerating climate change, which in turn increases the probability of extreme weather events.

Takeaways

• 🌡️ From 2016 to 2019, there was a significant increase in extreme weather events, including record-breaking heat waves, wildfires, and category 5 tropical cyclones.
• 🌍 The number of extreme weather events has been on the rise for the past 40 years, and predictions suggest this trend will continue.
• ❓ The script poses the question of whether these disasters are due to 'bad weather' or a result of climate change.
• 🌤️ Weather is defined as the atmospheric conditions at a specific time and place, while climate refers to the average atmospheric conditions over longer periods.
• 🔮 Meteorologists can predict weather with about 80% accuracy for up to a week in advance, but climate predictions can forecast average temperatures for decades.
• 🎈 Weather forecasting relies on measuring initial atmospheric conditions, using data from instruments like radiosondes launched twice daily worldwide.
• 🔄 Weather is a chaotic system, making it impossible to predict with absolute certainty due to its sensitivity to small changes.
• 🌐 Climate prediction is more stable because it focuses on average conditions and boundary conditions, which change slowly and can be predicted with more reliability.
• 🌞 Boundary conditions, such as solar radiation, are key factors in climate prediction and are used to understand periodic patterns like seasons.
• 🚀 A minor increase in Earth's surface temperature (1 degree Celsius over 150 years) has added a significant amount of energy to the atmosphere, leading to more extreme weather events.
• ☀️ Human activities are accelerating climate change, which in turn increases the likelihood of extreme weather events, and scientists are nearly unanimous in this consensus.

Q & A

What is the difference between weather and climate?

Weather refers to the atmospheric conditions at a specific time and place, while climate describes a region's average atmospheric conditions over periods of a month or more.

How accurate can meteorologists predict weather for a region?

Meteorologists can predict a region's weather for the next week with roughly 80% accuracy.

What are the initial conditions meteorologists need to measure for weather forecasting?

The initial conditions include current levels of precipitation, air pressure, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction.

How often do meteorologists release balloons into the atmosphere to measure atmospheric conditions?

Meteorologists release balloons into the atmosphere twice every day from over 800 stations around the globe.

What is a radiosonde and how does it help in weather forecasting?

A radiosonde is an instrument carried by a balloon that measures atmospheric initial conditions and transmits the data to international weather centers for forecasting.

Why is it impossible to predict weather beyond two weeks?

Weather is a fundamentally chaotic system, sensitive to small disturbances, making it impossible to perfectly forecast without absolute knowledge of all system elements.

How does climate prediction differ from weather prediction?

Climate prediction focuses on the average of all weather data over long periods and ignores current atmospheric conditions, focusing on the range of what could happen.

What are boundary conditions in climate prediction, and how do they affect weather?

Boundary conditions are parameters that act as constraints on climate and weather, such as solar radiation. Slight changes in these conditions can significantly affect the weather system.

How has the Earth's surface temperature change over the last 150 years impacted the atmosphere?

A warming of almost 1 degree Celsius has added the energy equivalent of roughly one million nuclear warheads into the atmosphere, leading to an increase in extreme weather events.

What is the consensus among scientists regarding the cause of increasing extreme weather events?

Scientists are in near universal agreement that our climate is changing and that human activity is accelerating those changes.

How can we identify human behaviors impacting the climate?

By tracking which boundary conditions are shifting, we can identify what human behaviors are impacting the climate most.