Demographic transition | Society and Culture | MCAT | Khan Academy
Summary
TLDRThe demographic transition model outlines the shift from high to low birth and death rates as countries industrialize. It consists of five stages: from high rates with a stable population in Stage 1, to a growing population in Stages 2 and 3 due to declining death rates and later, falling birth rates. Stage 4 sees a stabilization with balanced low rates, while Stage 5 remains speculative, with theories ranging from population decline to potential growth or even off-planet colonization.
Takeaways
- 🌟 Demographic transition is a model that describes how a country's population changes over time, moving from high to low birth and death rates.
- 📈 The growth rate is a measure of population change over a period, calculated by births plus immigration minus deaths and emigration.
- 🌱 Most countries currently have a positive growth rate, meaning their populations are increasing due to various economic, religious, and cultural factors.
- 🏭 Industrialized countries often have lower birth rates as children are no longer seen as economic assets but as individuals who require education and care.
- 🌐 The demographic transition model has five stages, starting from high birth and death rates to stabilization and potential decline.
- 🏥 Stage 1 is characterized by high birth and death rates due to limited birth control and poor health conditions.
- 🌱 Stage 2 sees a rise in population as death rates drop due to improvements in health and sanitation.
- 📉 Stage 3 is marked by declining birth rates due to access to contraception and a shift towards smaller families.
- 🔄 Stage 4 represents stabilization where both birth and death rates are low, seen in many developed countries.
- 🤔 The future of population growth after Stage 4 is uncertain, with theories ranging from stabilization to decline or even a resurgence in growth.
Q & A
What is the demographic transition model?
-The demographic transition model is a theory that describes the changes in a country's population as it moves from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, eventually stabilizing the population. This transition often occurs as a country becomes more industrialized.
How does a country's growth rate relate to its population changes?
-A country's growth rate measures the change in population over a specific time period, considering the number of births, deaths, immigrants, and emigrants. A positive growth rate indicates an increase in population, while a negative growth rate indicates a decrease.
Why do less developed countries often follow the demographic patterns of more developed countries?
-Less developed countries tend to follow the demographic patterns of more developed countries because they often look to them for advancements in technology, healthcare, and social policies, which can influence birth and death rates.
What factors contribute to a positive growth rate in a country?
-A positive growth rate in a country can be influenced by economic benefits of having children, government incentives for larger families, religious beliefs promoting large families, and cultural values that place prestige on having children.
What are the five stages of the demographic transition model?
-The five stages of the demographic transition model are: 1) High birth and death rates with a stable population, 2) Declining death rates and a growing population, 3) Declining birth rates as society becomes more industrialized, 4) Low and balanced birth and death rates with a stable population, and 5) Speculative stage where population may stabilize, decrease, or increase again.
What is a stationary population pyramid and how does it relate to Stage 1 of the demographic transition model?
-A stationary population pyramid is a model that shows a stable population with a high number of births and deaths, resulting in a balanced age distribution. This is characteristic of Stage 1 of the demographic transition model, where birth and death rates are both high.
How does the population pyramid change from Stage 1 to Stage 2 in the demographic transition model?
-In Stage 2, the population pyramid shifts from a stationary to an early expanding shape as death rates drop due to improvements in health and sanitation, while birth rates remain high, leading to a growing population.
What factors lead to a decline in birth rates during Stage 3 of the demographic transition model?
-During Stage 3, birth rates begin to fall due to increased access to contraception, changing social trends toward smaller families, better healthcare, and industrialization, which reduces the economic need for large families.
What characterizes Stage 4 of the demographic transition model?
-Stage 4 is characterized by low and balanced birth and death rates, leading to a stable population. This stage is marked by improvements in contraception, a high percentage of women in the workforce, and a focus on careers over having children.
What are the possible outcomes for the world population after Stage 4 of the demographic transition model?
-After Stage 4, the possible outcomes for the world population include stabilization due to resource constraints, a decrease as birth rates continue to fall below death rates, or an increase in population due to high standards of living and fertility rates.
Outlines
🌱 Demographic Transition and Population Growth
This paragraph introduces the concept of demographic transition, which is a model that explains how a country's population changes over time. It discusses the shift from high birth and death rates to low rates, leading to population stabilization, typically seen in industrialized countries. The growth rate, which measures population change over a period, is explained using the example of a hypothetical country 'Zed'. Factors influencing population growth, such as economic benefits, government incentives, religion, and cultural influences, are also highlighted. The paragraph sets the stage for understanding the five stages of the demographic transition model.
🌟 Stages of Demographic Transition
This paragraph delves into the five stages of the demographic transition model. Stage 1 is characterized by high birth and death rates, typical of pre-18th century countries. Stage 2 marks the beginning of population growth due to falling death rates, seen in 19th century Western Europe post-Industrial Revolution. Stage 3 witnesses a decline in both birth and death rates due to better healthcare and industrialization, observed in some South American and Middle Eastern countries. Stage 4 represents stabilization with low birth and death rates, exemplified by countries like the United States and Australia. The final stage is speculative, with theories suggesting possible stabilization, decrease, or increase in population, influenced by factors like resource scarcity, individualism, and government policies. The paragraph concludes with the uncertainty of future demographic trends.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Demographic Transition
💡Growth Rate
💡Industrialized Countries
💡Birth Rates
💡Death Rates
💡Population Pyramid
💡Economic Benefits of Children
💡Religion and Population Growth
💡Cultural Influences on Family Size
💡Malthusian Theorem
💡Anti-Malthusian Theorem
Highlights
Demographic transition is a model that predicts changes in a country's population as it moves from high to low birth and death rates.
Population stabilization typically occurs in industrialized countries due to their advancements influencing less developed ones.
Most countries currently have a positive growth rate, indicating a continuously increasing population size.
Growth rate is defined as the measure of population change over a specific time period.
The example of 'Zed' illustrates how to calculate population growth by accounting for births, deaths, immigration, and emigration.
Positive growth rates are influenced by economic benefits of child labor and government incentives for larger families.
Religion often promotes large families, which can impact population growth rates.
Cultural influences, such as the prestige of having children, can also contribute to higher birth rates.
The demographic transition model consists of five stages, starting with high birth and death rates.
Stage 2 of the model is characterized by a drop in death rates due to improvements in health and sanitation.
In Stage 3, both death and birth rates begin to decline due to access to contraception and a shift towards smaller families.
Stage 4 represents a stabilization of the population with low and balanced birth and death rates.
The final stage of the model is speculative, with theories ranging from population decline to potential stabilization or resurgence.
Malthusian Theorem suggests a potential global crisis due to resource depletion, which could force population stabilization.
Anti-Malthusian Theorem posits that higher standards of living could lead to smaller families and a decrease in population.
Government policies, such as China's one-child policy, aim to control population growth and conserve resources.
Demographic transition reflects the shift from high to low birth and death rates with industrialization, but the future trajectory remains uncertain.
Transcripts
Voiceover: Demographic transition is a model that
changes in a country's population.
It states that the population will eventually stop
growing when the country transitions from high
birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates
and death rates, stabilizing the population.
This stabilization often occurs in industrialized
countries, because less developed countries tend
to rely on and follow the more developed countries
for their advancements.
Right now, most countries have a positive growth
rate, which means their population keeps getting
bigger.
First, let's pin down what the growth rate is.
Growth rate measures how much the population
of a country grows or shrinks over some time period.
For example, let's take a look at this country.
I'm going to call it "Zed".
Zed, here, had one million people at the beginning
of the year.
If we want to know the growth rate of the population
of Zed for the year, we count how many people were
added to the population and how many people were
removed.
The number of people added includes the number
of births and the number of people who immigrated
into the country during that year.
Let's say 20,000 babies were born this year and
50,000 people moved to Zed from other countries.
Then you have to subtract from this number how
many people were removed from the population,
so the number of deaths and the number of people
who emigrated from the country during that year.
Let's say, during the year, 15,000 people died and
5000 people moved out of Zed.
From here, it's pretty easy to figure out the
population of Zed at the end of the year.
Started with one million, add 20,000 births and
50,000 immigrants and subtract 15,000 deaths and
5000 emigrants, which gives us 1,050,000 people
at the end of the year.
If we want the growth rate over this year, all you
need to do is take that total current population,
subtract the total number of people in the country
at the beginning of the year, and then divide by that
number again.
Multiply it by 100 and you turn it into a percentage.
Now you have your growth rate.
So now you can see why, when we say there's a
positive growth rate, that means that the population
is now bigger than the population in the past.
But why do most countries currently have a
positive growth rate?
There are economic benefits, because children can
work to help support the family.
Sometimes, the government even provides incentives
to families for each child, like in Japan, where birth
rates are very low.
Religion also influences population growth, because
it often promotes large families, which increase the
number of people in their faith and encourages
stronger community.
Some religions will even forbid the use of
contraceptives by their followers, pretty much
ensuring large families.
And there are cultural influences that promote
large families, too.
Having children means that a person is passing
down their own family's traits and values.
There's a kind of prestige that goes along with
having children.
Okay, now let's dive into the demographic transition
model.
There are five stages to the demographic
transition model.
In Stage 1, a country has high birth rates, often due
to limited birth control and the economic benefit
of having more people to work.
They also have high death rates, due to poor
nutrition or high rates of disease.
It is believed that most countries were at Stage 1
until the 18th Century, when death rates in western
Europe began to fall.
You can see this type of population modeled by a
high stationary population pyramid, with a high
birth rate.
This pyramid shows the number of people alive in a
population, depending on age and gender.
As you can see, the Stage 1 stationary population has
many births, creating a large young population, as
well as many deaths, creating a small older
population and keeping the over all population
fairly stable.
The second stage is seen in the beginnings of the
developing country.
The population begins to rise as death rates drop,
because of improvements in health and sanitation
and the availability of food.
This trend can be seen in western Europe in the
19th Century, after the Industrial Revolution.
The birth rates are about the same as they were in
Stage 1, though, so the over all population begins
to grow.
This is an early expanding population pyramid.
You have high birth rates still, see, lots of young people,
but the death rate is declining, so you have more
older people, making this nice pyramid shape.
In Stage 3, the death rates continue to drop, but
at the same time, birth rates also begin to fall
because of access to contraception and a changing
social trend toward smaller families.
The society has better health care and is becoming
more industrialized by this point, meaning there are
fewer childhood deaths and also the kids don't need
to work, or aren't allowed to work by law any more.
Having lots of children isn't economically beneficial
any more, as the kids are sent to school, rather than
working to support the family.
Many countries in South America and the Middle East
have such declining birth rates.
This population is still expanding, but at a slower
rate.
You can see in this late expanding population pyramid,
that, as birth rates decline, there are fewer young
people and, with the already-declining death rates,
people are living longer lives.
The population finally stabilizes in Stage 4 of
the demographic transition model, where both
birth rates and death rates are low and balance each
other out.
By this point, the population is rather large, because
it had been growing up until this point.
The low birth rates are due to a combination of
improvements in contraception as well as the high
percentage of women in the workforce and the fact
that many couples choose to focus on careers over
having children.
Countries like the United States or Australia are in
Stage 4 right now.
The population can be modeled by a low stationary
pyramid, with low birth rates and low death rates,
as well as a longer life expectancy.
The fifth and final stage is only a speculation.
There are few theories as to what happens next.
Some believe that the world population will be
forced to stabilize as the Malthusian Theorem
suggests.
Perhaps we will run out of resources, and there will
be a global food shortage.
Already, of the more than seven billion people on our
planet, there are about one billion world-wide who
suffer from hunger and malnutrition.
The world population continues to increase but,
perhaps, we won't be able to maintain the natural
resources at the rate we are going for how many
people live on this planet, which Malthusians believe
will lead to a major public health disaster and
force the population to remain stable.
Or, perhaps, the population will begin to decrease
after it stabilizes, continuing the trend of decreasing
birth rates until it drops below the death rate.
With more people dying than being born, there
would be a negative growth rate.
This results in a constrictive population pyramid,
where there are fewer young people than old.
Perhaps this will be because of a rise in individualism
or, perhaps, as the anti-Malthusian Theorem states,
this will be because couples only want to have one
child or they have children later in life.
Some evidence shows that a better standard of
living promotes smaller families, as children become
an economic burden, rather than a source of
financial support.
Industrialized nations often have better education
and access to health care, which contribute to more
reproductive choices.
Some governments, like in China, are even adopting
policies that encourage small families to slow their
population growth and save resources.
Or, on the other hand, perhaps the population will
begin to grow again after the stabilization of the
fourth stage.
Some evidence shows that high standards of living
actually promote fertility and a higher birth rate.
There's only one real way for us to find out what
will happen next and we'll have to wait it out
and see where the world is in a century or two.
So, I'll see you there, right?
To sum it up, demographic transition is a shift from
high birth and death rates to low birth and death
rates as a country becomes industrialized, but what
will happen after that is impossible to tell.
Will the population stabilize?
Will it decrease, will increase?
Will we move off-planet and colonize a world
around a distant star?
We could only guess for now.
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