BERSIAPLAH UNTUK TAHUN 2025.

AG Invest

1 Jun 202410:53

Summary

TLDRThe video discusses four factors that could lead to economic challenges in Indonesia by 2025. These include a rise in VAT from 11% to 12%, the introduction of a 2.5-3% housing savings deduction from income, the potential reduction of fuel subsidies, and high-interest rates. The speaker emphasizes the importance of preparing for these changes by saving and managing finances wisely to avoid desperate measures like online gambling or high-interest loans. The video also touches on geopolitical issues, particularly the unresolved conflict between Israel and Palestine, which could exacerbate global economic difficulties.

Takeaways

📈 The speaker predicts a bleak economic outlook for Indonesia in 2025, with several factors contributing to this prediction.
💹 An increase in the Value Added Tax (PPN) from 11% to 12% is expected, which could place additional financial pressure on businesses and consumers.
🏦 A new policy called 'taper a' is introduced, which mandates deductions from income for housing savings, potentially reducing the disposable income of the middle and lower classes.
🍚 The government is considering a policy to provide free food, which could be costly and may lead to a reduction in fuel subsidies (BBM) to fund it.
🚗 The reduction of fuel subsidies could further strain the purchasing power of the public, exacerbating economic challenges.
💰 High-interest rates are a significant concern, as they can widen the wealth gap and make loans more expensive, impacting middle and lower-income groups disproportionately.
🌐 Geopolitical issues, such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, are highlighted as an extra point that could impact global stability and, by extension, Indonesia.
💡 The video aims to serve as a reminder for individuals and business owners to prepare for potential economic challenges by saving and managing finances wisely.
🏢 Businesses are advised to anticipate increased costs and to strategize for maintaining financial stability amidst the predicted economic downturn.
🌟 The speaker encourages viewers to join a community called 'Smart Room' for further discussions on global and Indonesian economics, indicating a platform for collective preparation and knowledge sharing.

Q & A

What is the main prediction for Indonesia in 2025 according to the video?
-The video predicts that Indonesia will face economic challenges in 2025, becoming 'darker' due to various factors such as increased taxes, new policies, and geopolitical issues.
What is the first factor mentioned that will contribute to Indonesia's economic challenges in 2025?
-The first factor is the increase in the Value Added Tax (PPN) from 11% to 12%, which will put pressure on businesses and consumers.
How does the new housing savings policy (tapera) affect the middle and lower-income classes according to the video?
-The new tapera policy will reduce the disposable income of the middle and lower-income classes by requiring a portion of their income to be deducted for housing savings, potentially decreasing their purchasing power.
What is the concern regarding the management of the housing savings (tapera) as mentioned in the video?
-There is a concern that if the housing savings are not managed well, it could lead to a loss of the public's savings, similar to past incidents with financial institutions like Jiwarya.
What is the significance of the free food policy discussed in the video for 2025?
-The free food policy is expected to be a new government initiative that will require significant funding. The video raises questions about how this will be implemented and funded, especially considering the potential reduction in fuel subsidies.
How might the reduction of fuel subsidies (BBM) impact the Indonesian economy according to the video?
-The reduction of fuel subsidies could lead to a decrease in purchasing power for the general public, as the cost of living increases, which might further strain the economy.
What is the impact of high-interest rates on different income classes in Indonesia as discussed in the video?
-High-interest rates disproportionately affect middle and lower-income classes, increasing the cost of credit and loans, while the wealthy might benefit from higher returns on deposits, potentially widening the social and economic gap.
What additional advice does the video provide for individuals and businesses to prepare for 2025?
-The video advises individuals and businesses to prepare by saving and managing their finances well, ensuring they have emergency funds or sufficient savings to withstand potential economic challenges.
How does the geopolitical situation, particularly the conflict between Israel and Palestine, factor into the global economic outlook mentioned in the video?
-The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine adds to global tensions and uncertainty, which could have broader economic implications if it escalates or continues unresolved, affecting global markets and stability.
What is the call to action for viewers of the video regarding the information discussed?
-The video encourages viewers to share the information with others to prepare for 2025 and to join a community discussion, 'Smart Room,' for further economic discussions about global and Indonesian economic issues.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Economic Challenges in 2025

The speaker discusses the economic outlook for Indonesia in 2025, suggesting it will face significant challenges. Key points include a proposed increase in the Value Added Tax (PPN) from 11% to 12%, which could strain businesses already dealing with reduced sales and increased costs. The speaker also mentions a new policy requiring deductions from employee incomes for housing savings, which could reduce consumer spending power. The potential misuse of these funds is a concern, as is the broader economic impact of reduced consumer purchasing power.

05:02

🍽️ Free Food Policies and Subsidy Reductions

The speaker outlines additional economic pressures for 2025, including the introduction of free food programs funded by reducing fuel subsidies. This could exacerbate the financial burden on the middle and lower classes, who are already struggling with reduced purchasing power. The speaker emphasizes the importance of the government's management of these programs to prevent further economic decline and the widening of social disparities.

10:04

🌐 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Global Impact

In the final paragraph, the speaker touches on geopolitical issues, specifically the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, as an example of how unresolved tensions can affect global stability. The speaker calls for viewers to share the video to prepare for the challenges of 2025 and mentions an upcoming discussion on the stock market's potential in the context of these economic and geopolitical factors.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡PPN (Pajak Pertambahan Nilai)

PPN, or Value Added Tax, is a consumption tax levied on goods and services at each stage of production and distribution where value is added. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses the increase of PPN from 11% to 12% in Indonesia, which is a significant concern for businesses and consumers as it directly impacts the cost of goods and services. The video suggests that this increase can lead to a decrease in business turnover and an increase in operational costs, which can affect the overall economic climate.

💡Tabungan Perumahan Rakyat (People's Housing Savings)

Tabungan Perumahan Rakyat refers to a policy where a portion of an individual's income is deducted for the purpose of saving towards buying a home. The video mentions that this policy is being implemented in Indonesia, with deductions of 2.5% from employees' income and 0.5% from employers. For freelancers, the deduction is 3%. The video raises concerns about the potential negative impact on middle-income earners who may already own homes but are still subject to these deductions, which could reduce their disposable income and purchasing power.

💡Makanan Gratis (Free Food)

The term 'Makanan Gratis' refers to a policy being discussed in the video where the government plans to provide free food to certain segments of the population. The speaker questions the logistics and costs associated with such a program, especially considering the need to deliver food to remote areas. The video suggests that this policy could be funded by reducing fuel subsidies, which could have broader economic implications by increasing the cost of living for the general public.

💡Subsidi BBM (Fuel Subsidy)

Subsidi BBM, or fuel subsidies, are government-funded programs that reduce the cost of fuel for consumers. The video discusses the potential reduction of these subsidies in Indonesia, which could lead to higher fuel prices. This increase in fuel costs can have a ripple effect on the economy, increasing the cost of transportation and goods, and potentially reducing the purchasing power of the middle and lower-income classes.

💡Suku Bunga (Interest Rates)

Suku Bunga refers to the rate at which interest is charged on loans or earned on savings. The video highlights the high interest rates in Indonesia and the potential for these rates to remain high for an extended period. High interest rates can make borrowing more expensive, which can affect those who rely on credit, such as middle and lower-income individuals looking to purchase homes or businesses needing operational loans. Conversely, high interest rates can benefit those with savings or investments, as they can earn higher returns.

💡Inflasi (Inflation)

Inflasi, or inflation, is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. The video suggests that high interest rates are being used as a tool to combat inflation, but the speaker implies that this strategy may not be effective if the value of the currency continues to depreciate. Inflation can erode savings and increase the cost of living, which is a concern for the video's discussion on economic challenges.

💡Daya Beli (Purchasing Power)

Daya Beli, or purchasing power, refers to the amount of goods and services that can be purchased with a unit of currency. The video discusses how various economic policies, such as increased taxes and reduced subsidies, can negatively impact the purchasing power of the middle and lower-income classes in Indonesia. A decrease in purchasing power can lead to reduced consumer spending, which can affect businesses and the overall economy.

💡Geopolitical Problem

Geopolitical problems refer to issues that involve conflicts or tensions between nations, which can have global implications. The video mentions the ongoing tensions between Israel and Palestine as an example of a geopolitical problem that can affect global stability and economic conditions. The speaker suggests that unresolved geopolitical issues can lead to uncertainty and potentially impact international trade and investment.

💡Ekonomi (Economy)

Ekonomi, or economy, encompasses all economic activities and the relationships between individuals, businesses, and governments in a region. The video discusses various economic challenges facing Indonesia, such as tax increases, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, which can influence the overall health of the economy. The speaker's analysis of these factors aims to provide viewers with a comprehensive understanding of the potential economic outlook for the country.

💡Pembisnis (Businesspeople)

Pembisnis, or businesspeople, refers to individuals who own or operate businesses. The video mentions the challenges faced by businesspeople in Indonesia due to economic policies such as increased taxes and the potential reduction of fuel subsidies. These policies can increase operational costs and reduce profitability, which can affect the ability of businesses to grow and contribute to the economy.

💡Dana Darurat (Emergency Fund)

Dana Darurat, or emergency fund, is a financial reserve set aside to cover unexpected expenses or emergencies. The video emphasizes the importance of having an emergency fund, especially in the face of potential economic challenges in 2025. The speaker advises viewers to manage their finances wisely and prepare for the possibility of economic downturns by setting aside funds that can be used in times of need.

Highlights

The speaker predicts that 2025 will be a darker year for Indonesia than 2024.

Indonesia is set to increase the VAT (PPN) from 11% to 12% in 2025, impacting businesses and consumers.

The VAT increase from 10% to 11% in 2022 has already led to a drop in business turnover and increased costs.

The new housing savings policy (tapera) will deduct 2.5% from employees' income and 0.5% from employers, affecting purchasing power.

Freelancers will have 3% of their income deducted for tapera, potentially reducing their disposable income.

The tapera policy aims to encourage savings for first-home purchases, but it may also decrease the spending power of the middle class.

The speaker expresses concern about the management of tapera funds, referencing past issues with similar programs.

The government is expected to introduce a free food policy in 2025, which will require significant funding.

The logistics and costs associated with providing free food to remote areas are expected to be substantial.

Subsidies for fuel (BBM) are rumored to be reduced in 2025, potentially funding the free food policy.

A reduction in fuel subsidies could lead to a decrease in purchasing power and increased financial pressure on the public.

High-interest rates are expected to continue, exacerbating the financial burden on middle and lower-income classes.

The speaker suggests that the rich may benefit from high-interest rates while the middle and lower classes suffer.

The speaker advises preparing for economic challenges in 2025 by saving and managing finances wisely.

The geopolitical tensions between Israel and Palestine are highlighted as an extra point that could affect the global economy.

The speaker encourages sharing the video to help others prepare for the economic conditions of 2025.

The speaker invites viewers to join a discussion on the stock market and economic conditions in a Smart Room session.