Generative AI Is About To Reset Everything, And, Yes It Will Change Your Life | Forbes
Summary
TLDRThe script discusses the transformative impact of generative AI, the second wave of AI following ranking systems like Google search. It highlights the potential of AI to generate content and reshape society's communication and information structure. The launch of OpenAI's chat GPT and its implications for business and society are explored, along with the cautious optimism towards AI's future, its applications in various sectors, and the ethical and practical challenges it poses, such as biases, copyright issues, and the potential for misuse.
Takeaways
- 🌊 The script discusses generative AI as the second wave of transformative AI, following the first wave of ranking systems like Google search and YouTube recommendations.
- 🔑 The first wave of AI impacted society by restructuring incentives for various professions through the act of ranking information created by people.
- 🌟 The second wave of AI is about generating content, which has the potential to completely change the way information is made and communication occurs in society.
- 🛠 Generative AI refers to AI tools that create new content from large datasets in response to prompts, such as text, audio, or video.
- 📈 OpenAI, initially a non-profit, transitioned to a for-profit entity to raise funds for developing artificial general intelligence (AGI), partnering with Microsoft and receiving significant investment.
- 📚 The script mentions the cautious optimism around generative AI and the recognition of its inevitability, with a focus on how to manage its integration into society.
- 🎨 Generative AI is being used to enhance creativity, allowing people to visually communicate ideas almost instantly, which was previously time-consuming.
- 🏢 The technology is expected to be integrated into business workflows and existing software like Microsoft Word or Google Docs, enhancing productivity.
- 🤖 Bill Gates is quoted as being optimistic about AI's impact, particularly in developing areas where AI could provide medical advice or educational support where human resources are scarce.
- 🚀 The script suggests that AI will open up new possibilities, similar to how previous technological advances created new use cases that were not previously possible.
- 🔍 However, the script also highlights challenges with AI, such as inaccuracies, ethical concerns, copyright issues, and the potential for misuse, like deepfake technology.
Q & A
What is considered the first wave of transformative AI experienced over the past few decades?
-The first wave of transformative AI is centered around ranking systems, which includes applications like Google search, Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok, focusing on the ranking of information created by people.
How does the ranking of information by AI systems impact society?
-The ranking of information by AI systems affects the incentives of various societal figures like politicians, entertainers, and journalists, thereby restructuring society through the simple act of ranking for billions of people every day.
What is generative AI and how does it differ from the first wave of AI?
-Generative AI refers to AI tools that create new content such as text, audio, or video. It goes beyond ranking to actually generate content by learning from large datasets and creating new outputs based on prompts, unlike the first wave which focused on ranking existing content.
What was OpenAI's initial purpose and how did it transition to a for-profit entity?
-OpenAI initially aimed to create artificial general intelligence (AGI), a sci-fi concept of AI that is conscious and self-learning. However, as a non-profit, it couldn't raise enough funds for such an ambitious goal, leading to the creation of a for-profit entity in 2019, with Sam Altman becoming the full-time CEO.
How has OpenAI's relationship with Microsoft influenced its growth?
-Microsoft's investment in OpenAI, reportedly amounting to 10 billion dollars at a 29 billion dollar valuation, has been instrumental in OpenAI's growth, positioning it as a key ally and accelerating its development in the AI space.
What is the general consensus regarding the current wave of generative AI?
-The consensus is cautiously optimistic, with people accepting AI as an inevitability and focusing on how to manage its integration into society, rather than fearing the technology itself.
How can generative AI enhance human communication and creativity?
-Generative AI allows humans to communicate visually by creating visual content almost instantly, which previously would have taken much longer for skilled individuals to achieve through traditional art or presentation methods.
What is the potential impact of generative AI on education and other sectors?
-Generative AI can assist students with homework, structuring, or writing, and it is expected to have a broad impact across various sectors by enhancing and accelerating content creation and workflow processes.
What are some of the ethical concerns and challenges associated with generative AI?
-Ethical concerns include potential errors and 'hallucinations' where AI provides incorrect information confidently, copyright and IP issues regarding the data used to train AI models, and the broader implications of AI-generated content on trust and the perception of reality in society.
How does the advancement of generative AI compare to previous technological cycles according to Bill Gates?
-Bill Gates considers the advancement of AI as one of the four big technological changes of his lifetime, predicting that AI will be the hottest topic of the year and having a significant impact, especially in developing areas and underserved communities.
What are the potential future developments in generative AI technology?
-Future developments in generative AI are expected to include advanced capabilities in video, audio, and 3D content creation, further integrating into existing systems and potentially leading to new AI-native applications and tools.
Outlines
🌊 The Impact of Generative AI on Society and Communication
The first paragraph discusses the emergence of generative AI as the second wave of transformative AI, following the initial wave of ranking systems like Google search and social media algorithms. These systems have restructured society by influencing the incentives of various societal roles through the act of ranking information. Generative AI, such as OpenAI's chat GPT, is now capable of creating new content from prompts, which is a significant shift from merely ranking existing content. The implications of this new wave are vast and not fully understood, with the potential to completely rewire the way information is made and communicated across society.
🚀 Generative AI's Breakthrough and Business Potential
The second paragraph highlights the mainstream breakthrough of AI with the launch of OpenAI's chat GPT, which demonstrated the technology's capability to generate content in various forms, such as recipes or scripts in the style of famous personalities. The paragraph explores the business implications of AI, questioning who will profit and the reality of the hype surrounding it. It delves into OpenAI's transition from a non-profit to a for-profit entity, backed by significant investments and partnerships, aiming to create artificial general intelligence (AGI). The paragraph also notes the cautious optimism surrounding generative AI and its potential applications in various sectors, including education and creative industries.
🌟 Open Source Generative AI and Its Rapid Community Growth
The third paragraph focuses on the open-source nature of some generative AI models, which has led to a rapid and extensive community engagement, surpassing the popularity of projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The applications of generative AI are expanding from basic creativity to more complex uses, such as creating video game assets and artwork. The paragraph anticipates further integration of AI into business workflows and existing software like Microsoft Word and Google Docs. It also raises the question of whether new AI-native applications will emerge or if existing software will integrate AI to stay ahead.
💡 Bill Gates' Optimism and AI's Potential in Education and Healthcare
In the fourth paragraph, Bill Gates is quoted expressing his excitement about AI, considering it one of the four major technological changes of his lifetime. He anticipates AI to be a central topic of discussion, particularly highlighting its potential positive impact in developing regions and low-income areas, where AI could provide medical advice or educational support where human resources are scarce. The paragraph also touches on the broader applications of AI, from improving existing tasks to creating entirely new possibilities, and the importance of understanding AI's capabilities and challenges, such as biases in AI systems.
🚧 Challenges and Ethical Concerns of Generative AI
The fifth paragraph addresses the challenges and ethical concerns associated with generative AI, such as errors in information (referred to as 'hallucinations') and deeper issues like copyright and intellectual property. It discusses the legal disputes arising from the use of data from the internet to train AI models without compensating the original creators. The paragraph also raises concerns about the rapid pace of AI development and the potential societal impacts, including the risk of undermining trust in society through the creation of deepfakes and the potential for misuse of AI to disrupt democracy and personal privacy.
🌐 The Future of AI and the Need for Global Democratic Processes
The sixth paragraph envisions the future of AI, predicting advancements in video, audio, and 3D creation that will enable the realization of imagined worlds. It emphasizes the potential of AI to augment human potential in fields like education and healthcare. The paragraph also discusses the surprising uniformity of human communication, as demonstrated by AI's ability to predict certain types of interactions. It calls for new forms of democratic processes to guide the use of AI technology globally, to ensure that it is deployed in a way that considers its impact on society and supports human values.
🛠 The Paradigm Shift of AI in Technology and Society
The final paragraph asserts that AI and machine learning are becoming the new paradigm for building technology, with the potential to completely change the way we interact with computers and develop new applications. It suggests that the most innovative applications of AI are yet to be invented and that AI will be integrated into everyday business workflows and consumer behaviors. The paragraph concludes with a call for AI systems to be designed to optimize for human values, including unity and productivity, rather than division, which is often a byproduct of engagement-based algorithms.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Generative AI
💡Ranking Systems
💡Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
💡Incentives
💡OpenAI
💡Chat GPT
💡Stable Diffusion
💡Ethical Concerns
💡Optimization for Division
💡Platform Democracy
💡AI Native Applications
💡Reality Apathy
Highlights
Generative AI is the second wave of transformative AI, following ranking systems like Google search and YouTube recommendations.
Ranking systems affect the incentives of various societal roles, restructuring society through the simple act of ranking information.
Generative AI tools can create content like text, audio, or video from large datasets in response to prompts.
OpenAI's launch of Chat GPT brought AI into the mainstream, enabling creative tasks like writing in the style of Shakespeare.
OpenAI transitioned from a non-profit to a for-profit entity to raise funds for developing artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Microsoft's significant investment in OpenAI indicates a key alliance in the development of generative AI.
The generative AI wave gained momentum in summer 2022 with the release of models like Dolly 2 and stable diffusion.
There is a cautious optimism about the potential of generative AI to reshape communication and information creation.
Generative AI has applications in visual communication, education, and creative sectors, enhancing human potential.
The open-source nature of some AI models has led to a rapid community growth and diverse applications.
Expectations for future AI integration include business workflow use cases and potential AI-native applications.
Bill Gates considers AI one of the four major technological changes of his lifetime, with significant potential impacts.
AI tools have the potential to improve existing use cases and create entirely new ones, expanding possibilities.
The hype around AI is sustainable as it reflects a growing understanding and application of the technology.
AI systems still face challenges such as biases, errors, and ethical concerns like copyright and IP issues.
The rapid advancement of AI raises concerns about readiness and the potential for misuse, impacting trust in society.
Democracy and governance models need to adapt to consider the global and fast-paced nature of AI technology.
Generative AI's ability to copy voices raises both exciting translation possibilities and concerning misuse potential.
AI's impact will be widespread, affecting everything from chatbots to media, education, and healthcare.
The future of AI may include advanced capabilities like video, audio, and 3D world creation, enhancing human potential.
AI's ability to predict human communication patterns reveals a potential for early integration into business workflows.
The potential applications of AI are vast, with many yet to be invented, offering a paradigm shift in technology development.
AI democracy or platform democracy could be new forms of global decision-making regarding technology use and deployment.
AI systems should be optimized for human values that support society and democracy, rather than just engagement.
Transcripts
generative AI is in a sense the second
wave of transformative AI that we've
experienced over the past few decades
and that first wave was really around
ranking systems and so you're thinking
here about Google search Facebook
YouTube's recommendations Tick Tock all
of this is around choosing sort of the
ranking of information that was already
created by people and this seems like a
small thing it's just ranking a set of
items but when you're ranking everything
that Humanity has created that actually
affects the incentives of politicians of
entertainers of journalists you're now
restructuring Society just by that
simple Act of ranking because you're
ranking for billions of people every day
all the time the second wave is where we
go beyond ranking to actually generating
that content this second wave of
transformative artificial intelligence
we don't know fully what those
implications are going to be the whole
way in which we make information and the
basis of communication across Society
like that is all going to be rewired
[Music]
at its simplest generative AI refers to
an AI tool that is generating or
creating content that could be text
audio or video you're taking a really
large data set and you're inputting a
prompt and then you're outputting
something completely new that is
learning from all that info and creating
something to answer the prompts we've
covered AI for some time at Forbes but
on November 30th when openai launched
chat GPT it's tool that allows you to
you know ask for a recipe or a sauna in
the form of Shakespeare or a script in
the form of you know Alex as movie star
which my boss did he also asked it to
write an annual performance review for
me which I did not appreciate well we
saw everyone playing with these tools we
thought okay AI is really breaking into
the mainstream here it's not just
something that the tech bubble cares
about and it's time to ask questions
about who's really gonna make money here
how real is this hype and what will be
the business impacts openai is a really
interesting company it actually started
as a non-profit it was backed by Sam
aldman who used to run my combinator as
well as the billionaires Elon Musk and
Peter Thiel and it was formed with the
idea of creating an artificial general
intelligence this is a real kind of
sci-fi AI one that is conscious
self-learning that could theoretically
rethink capitalism as Sam almond has
said or could potentially outstrip human
Control building that AGI was something
that openai could not do as a non-profit
it couldn't raise enough money to do
this so it needed to create a for-profit
entity openai does that in 2019 and
that's when Sam Allman becomes CEO
full-time and not long after we've seen
the company become a key Allied to
Microsoft which has reportedly invested
10 billion dollars recently at a 29
billion dollar valuation
foreign
this current wave that we're seeing this
generative AI wave has been kind of
building up for the last couple months
now really hitting an inflection point
probably summer of 2022 we were slowly
seeing these different companies
starting to tease out you know new
releases like open AI launching Dolly 2
and beta and then stability AI announced
stable diffusion this text to image
generation model I think really it was
the culmination of all these different
models that reached a viral moment you
know really got to the masses I would
characterize the consensus as cautiously
optimistic you know I think there's not
so much pessimism around like AI as a
technology anymore I think more than
like optimism it's kind of gotten to a
point where people are accepting that
this is an inevitability now what do we
do with this inevitability you know
different folks have different levels of
bullishness on where this technology can
take us or what the potential harms and
risks of it are but uh for the most part
people seem to be optimistic that we
still have time it's still kind of in
our hands to kind of control the destiny
that this new AI Paradigm Shift brings
I think the way to look at this is if
Steve Jobs said that you know the phone
was a bicycle for the mind this
technology is really a rocket ship for
the mind the most exciting application I
think of this generative AI is with what
we're building allowing humans to
communicate visually so you can take
what's in your mind and create it almost
instantly whereas before it would have
taken days or months even for skilled
individuals to do that via art or
PowerPoint or whatever else I think
we've also seen the impact of this also
emerging other sectors such as education
where students are now using it to help
with their homework structuring or
writing I think we'll see it across
everything whereby again anything you
can imagine you'll be able to create now
stability or differential is that we are
open source so we release our models so
there's an amazing Community that's
built around it if you look at
popularity on the code base it's
outstripped things like Bitcoin in
ethereum in a few months what took them
10 years
the types of applications that we're
seeing are largely around basic
creativity at the moment but now they
are extending into combining these
things to create video game assets to
create artwork of various types to
create new textures and things like that
to extend the capabilities of creators
and to make more people creators I think
where it goes from here I think we'll
see more and more business workflow use
cases definitely expect to see these big
tech companies like Microsoft and Google
that are building some of these models
and kind of working with companies like
open AI on these models to start
integrating them more deeply into some
of the existing software we know so for
example you could expect to see
generative AI use cases in Microsoft
Word or Microsoft Outlook Google Docs
stuff like that I think one of the open
questions remains are we going to see
like an entirely new wave of uh AI
native applications kind of become a
whole new gen generation of software
tools that people use or will it be kind
of the existing options that are able to
integrate this AI faster and stay ahead
of the curve for example Adobe putting
this AI into Photoshop versus entirely
new like AI powered photo editor coming
about speaking of Bill Gates about AI I
was honestly a little surprised just how
excited he was I asked him how does this
compare to previous technological Cycles
like the the rise of the PC or the PC
with you know Graphics interfaces that
allow us to play games and do a lot more
you know graphically inclined things on
computers or even the internet itself
and Bill said that he thinks this is one
of the four big technological changes of
his lifetime and he said that he thinks
AI will deservedly be the hottest topic
of this year overall I would say Bill
Gates was optimistic about the impact
that these AI tools could have
particularly in the developing world
where he spends a lot of his thoughts
with his foundation he was thinking
about how in Africa some people may not
have access to human doctors you can do
a lot as a foundation to try to get
doctors to that place or train new
doctors but an AI tool that could answer
some basic medical questions could fill
a need without challenging doctors
professions similarly he was thinking in
you know lower income neighborhoods here
at home in the U.S there might be some
math tutoring or basic homework support
or teaching support but a tool like this
could use for students who don't have
access to human Tutors or don't have a
lot of time with a teacher
so with AI you can do existing use cases
better than before right so you can
improve search for example you can
improve moderation in social networks
you can improve communication by adding
uh virtual backgrounds for example to to
this video you can also create
completely new use cases that were just
not possible before right you can
generate image Club text you can
generate 3D context you can like
recognize voice and translate that you
can create better conversational AI so
it really opens up a new range of
possibilities the same way the previous
generation of Technology creates the
ability for machines to calculate better
or to retrieve information better with
search engine there's a whole range of
new use cases that weren't possible
before that are now made possible by
Machine learning uh the hype that we're
seeing now is just to catch up on the
previous wave of usage this is very
different for example than crypto where
you had a lot of pipe but very little
usage
I think it's quite sustainable and as we
see more use cases more usage more
companies investing on the topic in 2023
hopefully it's gonna going to become
more and more for mainstream topic and
more and more Central topic what we want
is for everyone to understand AI
understand what it can do what it can't
do some of the challenges associated
with it for example biases are a big
challenge for AI systems today we want
everyone to you know
understand that so that they can you
know help us mitigate some of the risk
uh and and make sure it doesn't create
more challenges
so there are a number of issues that
fall into different categories that
still need to be resolved with this AI
as uh flashy and exciting as some of
this new technology is it's still prone
to errors and mistakes AI practitioners
call it like hallucination where you
might ask open AI is a chat gbt a basic
math problem and it will very
confidently give you an answer but it
turns out the answer is completely wrong
that could you know in a business
capacity hurt a business if they're kind
of using inaccurate information taking
it at face value beyond that there are
kind of more deeper ethical concerns
that have not been addressed one of them
being the copyright and IP around this
new AI the way that this generative AI
is possible is these companies have
trained their AI models on this massive
massive quantities of data and a lot of
that data is pulled from the internet
you know so take an example like stable
diffusion which is trained on millions
and millions and millions of images
around the internet stability AI which
is one of the companies that we write
about in in our coverage and is behind
stable diffusion they've been sued
recently by Getty Images which is
alleging that they used millions of
Getty's photos to allegedly train the
models without paying Getty a dime for
their work there's also a lawsuit going
on against openai Microsoft and GitHub
which is owned by Microsoft from
programmers who believe that the code
that you can get which is usable it's
not perfect but it can actually save
time for some programmers today but that
code comes from programmers who
similarly were not compensated for their
work
foreign
[Music]
the rate of change that I expect that
we're going to be seeing over the next
few years
it makes me
concerned that we are
not going to be ready
for what's coming next and yes we're
better at the issues from 10 years ago
but we still haven't even solved the
problems that have been caused by the
the old
transformation where ranking systems
sort of reshape our society right now
there's two main sort of camps within
the tech World in terms of how we're
going to govern this technology and one
is we're just gonna give everyone the
power as an individual to do whatever
they want with it and the other is that
the tech companies themselves will
decide what you can do and both of those
don't seem really great like yes it's
nice for us to have individual power but
if everyone has the power to mess with
democracy everyone has the power to
harass others to extort others to
generate scams quickly on demand like
that maybe isn't really good for the
world there's a question of what else is
there right and then that is what
democracy tries to do it's it's can we
take that question of how this
technology should impact society and
bring it to a process where those
decisions are being really considered in
terms of their impacts but the challenge
is that our current Democratic systems
are frankly too slow and the AI advances
are both incredibly quick and they're
global
one of the most terrifying and in many
ways exciting applications of generative
AI is to copy our voices that's
incredibly useful for translating across
languages so you can have you just
speaking in any language and it really
sounds like you but the downside there
is someone can use that same technology
to just copy your voice saying anything
they want we had companies in the space
that were really responsible as well as
one couldn't be and they they had a lot
of safeguards to make it so that you
really it was really hard to copy
someone's voice about their consent but
that all changed very recently when a
number of companies just came out
without doing that it's sort of like
you're lowering the bar for
responsibility because these new
entrants are coming in because it's
cheaper to not build in that extra Tech
and it makes it easier to use and so we
can't live in a world where people keep
undercutting those responsibility
practices there is real risk that we are
moving toward a world where people just
don't have any sense of what is real and
they just sort of give up on that and
we've already seen that obviously in
many parts of the world the sort of what
I'm calling reality apathy that is not
the ingredient that we need if we want
to have functional Society functional
democracy like Society is built on trust
economics is built on on trust politics
is built on trust and we get into a
really dark place
when
we don't know what we can believe
I think there it's very difficult to see
where this AI will not impact anywhere
that a human and a computer interface
from better chat Bots to the whole of
the media industry changing to create
faster better output and even areas like
education and Healthcare augmenting
human potential in these areas it's hard
keeping up to date with what giant Fai
look likes next week let alone one year
or five years but I think in the next
few years we're going to see video we're
going to see audio 3D the ability to
really create any world you can imagine
and I think that will be amazing I think
we'll see it in areas like education and
Healthcare and others really helping and
enhancing our ability to Aid people and
I think that's going to be great to see
because it can integrate into existing
systems unlike other things like maybe
the metaverse or web 3 that always
created their own systems and there was
never really immediate value for a
couple things that have shocked me about
AI as I've gotten to know this space one
is that I feel like we're not all as
unique as we think we are these tools
are pretty good at predicting what an
email to reject a PR pitch looks like or
right back at me you know the kind of
way to send a PR pitch to someone like
Alex the reporter that kind of
communication is actually pretty well
predicted and so I think that we're
going to see these AI tools you know
being useful there much earlier than I
would have guessed
Sam Walden declined to be photographed
for our Forbes story we did photograph
Greg Brockman and a couple other leading
entrepreneurs in this space but for Sam
we thought it would be really fitting to
use his own tools to generate an image
of himself so he put into a prompt in
open ai's image generating tool called
dolly that said Sam Alden on the cover
of Forbes
we got some weird ones back including a
cover of sort of a blurry faced uncanny
valley Sam almond-like person holding a
cover of a magazine like Forbes with the
same image of blurry Sam Altman we've
already seen some media companies
starting to explore how to use these AI
tools themselves some elegantly some
actually getting in trouble for
publishing stories written by an AI tool
and not disclosing it right away I think
this is a debate that's going to happen
across the media landscape for someone
like me I'm actually not concerned I do
believe that just like using an iPhone
or a transcription tool or other pieces
of technology in my job I'll be using AI
to do my work better if the AI can
replace my work then I don't think I'm
doing a good job
thank you
I think her sense talking to these
Founders these investors is that uh a
lot of the coolest applications that are
going to come out of this you know AI
wave haven't even been invented yet
maybe haven't even been imagined yet
that said it seems like for the most
part starting out where this AI is going
to be applied is in some of the more
boring places some of the more busy
workplaces how do we integrate this AI
into our basic business workflow so I
think you're starting to see kind of
consumer behaviors change students for
example are already kind of using chat
gbt to generate essays for them some
artists are using models like stable
diffusion mid-journey or open ai's Dolly
to help them create works of art I think
because machine learning is such a
different Paradigm as a typical software
there's going to be like a flock like a
wave of AI ml native startups that are
going to do things build products 100
times better than the inconvenience who
have not been able to deal with machine
learning the the same way so this is
very exciting because I think we really
have the opportunity to change the
Paradigm completely and make a merge a
whole group of newcomers uh and and new
companies that are going to be able to
do things differently what we can do is
you can use
sort of new forms of democratic
processes
and this is what what I've been calling
sort of platform democracy or AI
democracy to ask a sort of
Representative selection of the global
population like how should this
technology be used how should it be
deployed it sounds crazy
to to say this but there already are
pilots of of this sort of global process
and the reason why you need it to be
Global is because this technology
affects everyone it creates legitimacy
it makes it really really hard for
companies to then be like oh we're
democratizing this technology when
really what they mean is we're giving
everyone the ability to just like mess
with everything that isn't what a
democratic process that isn't what
considered deliberation would have led
to if you had the people who were being
impacted by that technology in the room
we need our AI systems to not just be
optimizing for engagement as we've seen
with things like Facebook and Tick Tock
and YouTube but for the sort of the
human values that actually support
society and support democracy and a big
part of that is sort of not optimizing
for division which is what comes
naturally out of those algorithms in
many cases and so a lot of my work
recently has been around how can we
instead optimize for bridging divides
making conflict productive as opposed to
destructive so that I think that is
absolutely core to bake in from the
beginning because we've seen what
happens to society when systems that
billions of people are using every day
are really optimizing for division and
it isn't pretty
in my opinion Ai and machine learning is
becoming the new paradigm to build all
technology in my opinion Ai and machine
learning is becoming the new paradigm to
build old technology
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