just lost LOTS of money - wtf just happened
Summary
TLDRIn this financial analysis video, Kevin discusses his recent hedge losses due to positive economic data, despite his bearish stance. He shares his skepticism about a second wave of inflation and predicts deflation, leading to joblessness. Kevin reveals his current investment strategy, focusing on real estate and expressing optimism about the mortgage sector, which he believes will benefit from lower interest rates in a soft landing or recession scenario. He also provides a personal update on his studies and family life.
Takeaways
- 📉 Kevin experienced significant losses in his hedges due to positive economic data, which he anticipated would negatively impact the market but instead led to a rally.
- 📈 Despite good inflation data, Kevin maintains a bearish stance, concerned about a Q3-Q4 slowdown and potential deflation, which he views as beneficial for consumers but detrimental to jobs.
- 🏠 Kevin is actively investing in real estate, specifically 'wedge deals,' which are averaging around $134,000 each and are currently performing well.
- 📚 He is studying for the FINRA Series 86 and 87 exams and spending quality time with his family, including building a greenhouse and playing with Nerf guns.
- 💼 Kevin discusses a new stock sector of interest, the mortgage sector, which he believes will benefit from a soft landing or recession due to falling interest rates and increased refinancing.
- 📊 Google Trends data indicates a spike in refinancing searches, which Kevin believes will positively impact mortgage companies' earnings and the value of their held mortgages.
- 📉 Kevin closed his hedges after the CPI data release, acknowledging the current market uptrend and the difficulty in timing the market's reaction to economic data.
- 💡 He sees the mortgage sector as an asymmetric market opportunity, with potential for growth in both a soft landing and recession scenarios, and has set price targets for Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage.
- 🚫 Kevin emphasizes that the video is not personalized financial advice and that any investment decisions should be made with thorough research and consideration.
- 📈 Despite the current market rally, Kevin remains cautious, believing that the inverted yield curve signals a delayed recession and that the market may overreact to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the future.
Q & A
Why did Kevin describe it as a 'tough day' for him at the beginning of the script?
-Kevin described it as a 'tough day' because his hedges performed poorly, resulting in a significant financial loss, which he humorously compared to the value of a small house in Florida.
What economic data did Kevin refer to as 'good' during the week?
-Kevin referred to PPI (Producer Price Index) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) as 'good' economic data, indicating that these inflationary indicators came in better than expected.
What was Kevin's expectation regarding the impact of good inflationary data on companies and earnings?
-Kevin initially thought that good inflationary data would be negative for companies and earnings, but instead, he observed a market rally, suggesting that the positive data was being interpreted as a reason to buy stocks.
What does Kevin mean by 'Nike Swoosh recovery'?
-The 'Nike Swoosh recovery' is a metaphor Kevin uses to describe the market's volatile recovery, which, like the Nike logo, has an upward trend but with fluctuations.
Why is Kevin concerned about a Q3 Q4 slowdown and 'lessness'?
-Kevin is concerned about a Q3 Q4 slowdown and 'lessness' because he anticipates a decrease in economic activity and possibly a deflationary environment, which could negatively impact jobs and consumer spending.
What does Kevin believe about the second wave of inflation?
-Kevin does not believe in a second wave of inflation, arguing that overcapacity in manufacturing and a lack of demand will prevent prices from rising significantly again.
Why did Kevin close his hedges after the CPI data?
-Kevin closed his hedges after the CPI data because the market continued to rally despite everything retailing, indicating that his bearish strategy was not aligning with market movements at that time.
What new stock sector is Kevin increasing his position in, and why?
-Kevin is increasing his position in the mortgage sector because he believes it will benefit from lower interest rates, whether in a soft landing or a recession scenario, due to increased refinancing activity and the value of existing mortgages held by companies.
What is Kevin's view on the current state of the inverted yield curve?
-Kevin believes that the inverted yield curve is getting more inverted, which traditionally signals a potential recession, and he thinks this could push the Federal Reserve to make significant rate cuts in the future.
Why does Kevin think the mortgage sector could be the best performing sector in the next 12 months?
-Kevin thinks the mortgage sector could be the best performing because he anticipates increased refinancing as rates come down, which could boost the value of existing mortgages and the earnings of mortgage companies.
Outlines
📉 Stock Market Volatility and Economic Concerns
The speaker, Kevin, discusses his bearish stance on the market despite positive economic data such as PPI and CPI reports. He mentions his hedges suffered due to market rallies post-Bank of Japan's intervention and unexpected good retail sales data. Kevin also talks about his 'recession thesis' and his belief in an upcoming Q3 Q4 slowdown, increased layoffs, and potential deflation. He highlights the disconnect between good inflationary data and its supposed negative impact on companies and earnings, which he expected but did not materialize.
🏠 Real Estate Investments and Personal Updates
Kevin shares his personal strategy, which includes investing in real estate, where he's finding success with 'wedge deals.' He also mentions studying for FINRA tests and spending quality time with his family. Regarding the stock market, he talks about his interest in a new sector, which contrasts with his previous positions. He emphasizes his continued bearish outlook due to concerns over economic indicators and the potential for joblessness due to deflation and AI advancements.
💼 Mortgage Sector Insights Amidst Economic Fluctuations
The speaker details his current interest in the mortgage sector, explaining his rationale in the context of potential deflation and a soft or hard economic landing. He discusses the impact of refinancing trends on mortgage companies' earnings and the value of existing mortgages. Kevin argues that the sector could benefit from rate reductions in various economic scenarios and that the market may not have fully priced in the absence of a second wave of inflation or a 2008-like real estate crash.
📉 Market Analysis and Mortgage Sector Opportunities
Kevin provides an in-depth analysis of the current market trends, focusing on the mortgage sector's potential as a 'buy the dip' opportunity. He explains how the sector could perform well in both a soft landing and recession scenarios due to falling interest rates and refinancing activities. He also discusses the risks and benefits associated with different mortgage companies, highlighting United Wholesale Mortgage and Rocket Mortgage as particularly attractive.
🚀 Asymmetric Market Opportunity in Mortgage Sector
The speaker identifies the mortgage sector as an asymmetric market opportunity, suitable for long-term investment rather than short-term trading. He believes the market has not fully appreciated the lack of a second wave of inflation or the risk of a 2008-style crash. Kevin shares his optimism for the sector's performance over the next 12 months, despite acknowledging the difficulty of hedging in the current market conditions.
📈 Reflections on Market Movements and Personal Commitment
Kevin concludes by reflecting on the market's movements and the difficulty of hedging in the face of delayed recession indicators. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for various scenarios and his commitment to providing consistent content and analysis. He also invites feedback on his communication style, specifically regarding the audio quality of his videos.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Hedges
💡Inflationary Data
💡Rally
💡Recession Thesis
💡Deflation
💡Supply Chains
💡Manufacturing Deflation
💡Mortgage Sector
💡Refinancing
💡Mortgage Servicing Rights
💡Yield Curve
💡Treasury Bonds
💡Residential Mortgages
Highlights
Kevin experienced significant losses in his hedges due to positive economic data, which he expected to negatively impact the market.
Contrary to expectations, good inflation data led to a market rally instead of a downturn.
The Bank of Japan's intervention in the US stock market was followed by a rally.
Unemployment claims did not deter the market from rallying.
Retail sales data showed a surprising increase despite companies reporting weaker Q3.
Walmart's positive report contrasted with the general narrative of a weakening consumer.
Kevin's personal strategy includes buying real estate at discounted prices.
He is studying for the FINRA Series 86 and 87 exams to expand his financial knowledge.
Kevin is interested in the mortgage sector, expecting it to benefit from falling interest rates.
He believes there will not be a second wave of inflation due to overcapacity in manufacturing.
Deflation is seen as beneficial for consumers but potentially harmful for jobs.
The mortgage sector is positioned to benefit from refinancing as rates decrease.
Google Trends show increased interest in refinancing as treasury yields fall.
Kevin is cautious about the potential for job losses leading to an earnings collapse.
He has set price targets for Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale that are significantly higher than current levels.
Kevin sees the mortgage sector as an asymmetric market opportunity with long-term potential.
Despite being bearish, he has increased his exposure to certain sectors like mortgage and Nphase.
Kevin emphasizes that his views are a thesis and not a guarantee, highlighting the uncertainty in the market.
Transcripts
your boy Kevin just lost lots of
money poopy doopy you're raw fch me yeah
welcome on in everyone this is the oo a
little bit of a tough day for the dirty
bear the data this week was really good
my hedges got smoked really badly to the
tune of a small house in Florida
poof unfortunately I guess that's the
downside of being a bear against train
America dirty dirty dirty Kevin so where
does that leave us now because quite
frankly the data was really good this
week PPI was pretty good we're like oh
okay that's pretty good CPI comes in
it's oh okay well that's pretty good now
personally I thought that the good
inflationary data would actually be bad
for company and earnings as we've seen
in the last CPI reports but instead what
we actually saw is
oh no we're just going to rally on
everything we're going to Rally uh after
the bank of Japan bails out the US Stock
Market last week we're going to Rally
after unemployment claims what when do
we rally after unemployment claims
Thursday then we're going to Rally
before PPI on Monday rally after p CPI
on Tuesday rally after CPI on Wednesday
and then Iran doesn't
attack I guess the week isn't over yet
but then you get retail sales data
they're just a complete blowout after
McDonald's and Amazon and Disney and
most companies are complaining about a
substantially weaker Q3 and this this
weakening of the consumer but no you get
a blowout retail sales and a really good
report from Walmart now I like I know
some people are going to say and have
this argument that oh well you know more
people shopping at Walmart Kevin is
actually a bad thing because it means
they're so broke they have to I'm
like I don't know or or people like the
fact that Walmart is responding to
disinflation it is cutting prices and
people want a good deal you it's kind of
like me I want a wedge deal on real
estate I want good deals so I I I don't
blame people for shopping at Walmart I
actually think it's a great thing I
think everybody should just have like a
Walmart Plus subscription stop wasting
time going to the the store and just
order it all online and have it
delivered to you I think same day not an
ad # not anad uh but in this video I do
want to talk about uh obviously my
recession thesis uh data and then I also
want to talk about a new stock sector
that I'm increasing it a position in uh
I'm exposing exposing myself okay that
sounds weird I'm I'm getting
increasingly exposed to a specific
sector and there's a real reason why and
it'll make sense uh it's
the complete opposite of uh what we've
been into earlier the year and at the
end of 2022 when we called the Nike
Swoosh volatile Nike Swoosh recovery so
far it has been a Nike Swoosh recovery
and it has been volatile but that
volatility hasn't pushed us into
recession yet uh and so uh I I'm still a
bear I'm still uh I have I'm not
flipping and and it's not to be stubborn
uh it's that I am truly concerned about
a Q3 Q4 slowdown I am truly concerned
about uh lessness uh and I am also
concerned about uh deflation which
actually is is a wonderful thing mind
you for the consumer it's just bad for
jobs The Economist just as an example
just the other day had a fantastic piece
about how manufacturers in China are
going bankrupt uh because there's not
enough to manufacture uh in other words
Supply chains became so loose that
manufacturers are like what we'd gladly
produce a lot more stuff you know this
is why I don't think there'll be a
second wave of inflation people are
under this impression that oh okay well
as soon as we cut rates we're going to
have a second wave of inflation because
everybody's going to be able to go buy
cheap stuff again but the factories are
like please we've expanded our capacity
with new machinery and capex and and
larger factories so much we are so
overbuilt for capacity now please have
we are built for covid in a world that's
not going to print money like that uh at
least in that short of time frame likely
ever again that was probably a once in
a-lifetime money print in that sort of
condensed period of time don't get me
wrong we will always print money but
manufacturers would absolutely love uh
an an influx of order so so I'm not a
believer in a second wave of inflation
but I am a believer in
deflation uh leading which is the
direction that I think we're heading
into I'm not a Believer or I am a
believer I should say that deflation
will eventually lead to joblessness uh
in addition to artificial intelligence
which actually comes up with this sector
that I'm interested in a beneficiary of
artificial intelligence
so uh so yeah I I I did close my hedges
uh I closed my hedges yesterday actually
after the CPI data because I'm like bro
everything is retailing on every
everything's rallying on everything no
matter what this is crazy so uh we've
just been on a week uptrend and uh like
a week straight of an uptrend and it's
like there's no stopping it right now I
still think it's euphoric I still think
valuations are high and I do think data
is noisy but uh
there are few things that I think are
very very concerning to me number one
manufacturing and number two what ends
up happening when EPS growth slows down
and we do get substantially more layoffs
the triggering of the S rule has not
been wrong we've talked about this
before we've also talked about the false
fire in 1959 how it really wasn't a
false fire you did have a recession
immediately after the only reason it
didn't increase unemployment as high as
it did in the 57 cycle is because it
literally just triggered two years
before that because you sort of had a
double dip recession there anyway so uh
I want to talk a little bit about my
current strategy and where I currently
sit because obviously things are are
doing very very well in markets right
now and people are euphoric and things
are rallying and that's wonderful but my
POV is the following first I'm going to
talk about my sort of personal game plan
and then I'm going to talk a bit about
this current stock sector that I'm very
interested in and why so current game
plan first of all buying a lot of real
estate that's what we're doing with
house got the house hack shirt on
actually uh wedge deals we're we're
doing great right now we're averaging
about
$134,000 per wedge deal which is
fantastic um we've got third party
valuations going on and appraisals to
justify what we're doing and it's it's
going really really well so from the
real estate side we're like at the
moment knock on wood not missing like
it's going great that's not to say there
aren't ups and downs and little you know
things that could go more perfectly or
whatever but it's going great uh second
thing is uh I've been uh start I've
started studying the elsad I don't know
if I mentioned that but it's just sort
of a personal thing that I always like
learning and always like studying
something although yesterday I also had
to sign up for some more finra tests I
thought I'd be done with those but I'm
signing up for the 86 and 87 uh that's
it's getting kind of exciting with finra
so we're pretty stoked about the things
we've got going so I've got elsat in
November series 86 and 87 to nov
November coming up been spending a lot
of time playing Nerf guns with the kids
and uh we're going to build a little
small Greenhouse with the kids as well
so a lot of family time which is really
cool uh but as far as the this the stock
sector that I'm interested in first of
all it's built around this idea that
recessions are slow recessions don't
move very quickly outside of covid look
obviously when we had covid we had this
explosion of of a recession it may made
sense to have puts all and hedges all
day long because you had a 30-day crash
I mean you could just make tons of money
every single day because the market was
just- 7- 7- 7- 7% you're triggering
circuit breakers on a regular basis
right so that was a pretty remarkable
time but normally when you look back at
recessions the stock market takes one to
three years to sell down and the tough
thing is trying to pinpoint well when
does that start and then how do your
Hedges survive during let's say bare
Market rallies if we're going into a
recession right maybe we're not even
going into a recession maybe we're going
to stick the soft Landing of
1995 and great uh and so that's where
what I've done is I've positioned my
exposure to this might sound crazy but
actually the mortgage sector and I'm
going to explain why first of all in the
event of a soft Landing because of
disinflation or frankly even deflation
not only Manufacturing deflation but
also look at the Wall Street Journal
talking about hourly pay basically
plummeting because there are so many
people available to work at hourly wages
people are starting to get really
desperate for jobs this is the I mean
you have speared Airlines laying off
Pilots I we we literally went from Pilot
shortage to Spirit Airlines laying off
Pilots now I mean maybe it's because
it's Spirit but pilot layoffs crazy 250
Pilots getting laid off it's wild so
anyway when you combine manufacturing
def inflation and wage deflation you're
going to have economic deflation and I
don't think you're going to have a
second wave of inflation for the overc
capacity arguments that I've made so I
think the Federal Reserve is on a clear
PA path to lowering rates so I have no
concerns about CPI and PPI I think
that's just going to keep going straight
down I do have a concern that that is
going to lead to layoffs which
eventually leads to EPS collapse and
earnings collapse and a consumer
collapse we haven't seen an explosion in
layoffs Beyond obviously the triggering
of the Som rule you know I need I'm
going to get a new bracket for this by
the way some one that doesn't sit on the
desk uh and put it on the floor and kind
of arch over be a little better testing
this out just for this video because
this is more a little conversational if
I'm using the computer and notes and
other stuff I'll have just our usual
shotgun mic uh by the way let me know
which one do you think sounds better
this is the desk mic right here and this
is the shotgun mic you're probably used
to hearing so shotgun mic that you're
used to hear desktop mic they sound
different obviously but anyway so the
current sector the mortgage sector is
very interesting uh now they had a
little bit of a run yesterday because
there was a news about refinancing and
so a lot of people sort of bought and
basically traded it right people went in
to trade it and then they were closing
those positions today that's pretty
typical but if you look at Trends right
now and you type into Google Trends
refining
and you look at the past 5 years you're
going to see something very interesting
you're going to see right here at the
beginning of August the first week so
about the 4th through the 10th as as
treasury yields were falling you
actually had a nice spike in refinance
searches which hasn't shown up in
mortgage company earnings per share
yet uh and if you zoom out even further
and you go out to 2004 to present you
see that similar spike is just beginning
and I think that trend line is actually
going to keep Rising because there are a
lot of people who financed loans in 200
uh 22 23 and 24 that either can
refinance cheaper now only by a little
bit or they need to because they're so
high in credit card debt they're
consolidating now don't get me wrong I
don't encourage you do that I think
that's a bad idea because if you
refinance your house to pay off your
credit card then your credit card Deb
goes to zero and then you're just going
to end up going into credit card debt
again really bad idea anyway that's just
sort of a more like broad Financial
advice thing it's not personalized
Financial advice but the mortgage sector
is really interesting because I do think
refinances are going to grow the upside
of that is you actually increase the
value of existing bonds that or
mortgages that these companies hold uh
compared to new loans that are made so
in other words you look at a company
like United Wholesale Mortgage company
or rocket mortgage they have billions of
dollars in net assets basically you know
assets above the debt that they have and
a lot of these billions of dollars are
Residential Mortgages so they're not
exposed to the commercial real estate
sector they're exposed to the
Residential Mortgage sector which I
don't think has a 2008 repeatability
because we have completely the opposite
set of loans this time we don't have
credit default swaps on top of uh you
know AAA rated negam ninja loans like
the kind of trash that we had in 2008
today we have loans where people have
the ability to repay the Dodd Frank act
forced that after the recession and
these loans are actually very tough to
get they're very very high caliber high
quality loans so I'm not very concerned
about these mortgages losing value in
fact I believe they're going to gain
value as rates come down as rates come
down I think the mortgages that are on
the books of these companies go up in
value and their refinance revenues go up
now there is a little bit of a downside
in the mortgage servicing rights that
gets a little complicated but just to
quickly address it they can tend to go
down in value as rates come down because
there's a refinance risk that gets
priced in so loan deep I I well I found
out of them I found that rocket mortgage
and United Wholesale had the highest
percentage of mortgage loans to mortgage
servicing rights so more loans and uh Mr
Cooper Penny Mac and uh loan Depot which
are also good had a higher percentage of
mortgage servicing rights so I I scaling
a little heavier towards the rocket
mortgage and United Wholesale versus the
others and now what's really interesting
about this is I think this play Works in
a soft Landing scenario and in a
recession scenario I still think we're
going into a recession I I I don't know
when it'll be if we'll start seeing the
triggers you know Q3 Q4 we're in Q3 now
if we'll start seeing the uh uh the real
recessionary hit in 20125 I don't know
I'm going to be patient I think
valuations are way too high to to sort
of like fomo into to the market I I
don't really care about that uh this is
some personal advice for you it's it's
me you know I'm I'm trying to take a
protectionist POV here and my POV is no
second wave of inflation no Residential
Mortgage
crash rates come down in soft Landing or
recession okay cool that benefits
earnings per share via refinances that
benefits uh the value of mortgage uh
mortgages held by these companies which
increases the book value and so I
actually think that I mean I have a
price target for Rocket mortgage of $30
and United Wholesale of $18 which is
substantially higher than where they sit
today and so uh for me I look at these
hot data trends that we got today as
actually buy the dip opportunities on
those particular companies so I'm like I
I I decreased my exposure to Nvidia to
zero my exposure to Tesla's at zero uh
Microsoft set zero I've got exposure to
Apple and
Amazon treasury bonds like TLT or
uty and uh and then this mortgage sector
because I think the mortgage sector as a
whole benefits in soft Landing as rates
come down or substantially quicker in
recession as rates come down rapidly and
yes joblessness would go up right but
you have to think about it this way
joblessness might go from 4% to 8% if
there's a recession okay so how many
workers are there in the country well
you have about 50 million people who
work so take another 4% of those and
another 4% is 6 million and then about
60% of those might be homeowners but a
lot of those I'll say 30% of those are
two income households so not necessarily
a default risk when if you do that math
if I say uh 30% or single so I'll
multiply by 70% actually no multiplying
by 30% because that's the number that I
want you've only got a risk of maybe
about a million homeowners that could
lose their job and my belief is that a
lot of those homeowners probably have
excess equity in their homes to help
bridge them to get to the next job or
whatever or get through the recession so
I don't think that uh cohort is so risky
to justify sort of the the pressure on
the mortgage sector now the mortgage
sector has already started recovering
you know we're this it's not like we're
buying these at bottom right now uh so
there is a risk that some of that
excitement has already been priced in
but I think the market hasn't fully
priced in that there is not going to be
a second wave it's my opinion could be
wrong uh I don't think the market has
fully appreciated that there's not a
2008 real estate risk I don't think
that's priced in so therefore I think
these companies are at discount and I
don't think uh the market has started to
pick up on oh my gosh there there are a
lot of people ready and willing to
refinance as soon as rates drop even
just a little bit so I'm very optimist
IC on this mortgage sector I actually
think over the next 12 months it could
potentially be the best performing
sector not AI not Nvidia not Tesla uh I
I think maybe nface I have exposed her
to nface may maybe maybe uh they you
know they're they're sort of a bottoming
sector as well and they're kind of
related right they uh inas uses contract
manufacturing so they can sort of scale
up and down their uh their expenditures
they benefit from a not housing
recession
because the lower rates let homeowners
borrow cheaply to install solar on their
homes so so nface is probably in that
bucket as well of of me actually being
optimistic on nphase but that mortgage
sector I think people are very bored by
and and it's not very like sexy or
entertaining uh and so again I think uh
not personalized advice obviously but I
think you know absent the the amazing
rally that's happening today in pretty
much all sectors except for the mortgage
sector I think longer term companies
like United Wholesale rocket and even to
some extent Mr Cooper pennyback and
alone Depot are very
attractive uh and so for me I maintain
about a 2.9 on the bare bull scale right
now uh so in other words it's a little
bit more bullish from 25 but it's by no
means you know back to like bull mode or
even 50/50 mode I'm still pretty bearish
I think the inverted yield curve is
inverting even more and I don't think
it's going to take a lot to really push
us back into serious pain I know today's
Rally Day and then of course the Bears
always look like fools usually Bears
just crawl into a hole and go dark and
just just don't show up for work on days
the market rallies like this I I mean
look at this on on N phase for example
you literally went from my 113 line to
my 119 line it's like literally a
perfect move to move this is pretty
classic we we we see these lines hit a
lot anyway so you've got the 2-year
treasury at up 16 basis points right now
and the 10year is up 11 which means the
treasuries are getting whacked so like
TLT is on sale today and sort of the
mortgage companies but you've also got
the yield curve inverting more by about
five to six basis points which does mean
you have more pricing in of recession to
do uh in other words the data this week
has really just delayed the recession
which makes it very hard to hedge for
you know it's very difficult to say okay
I'm going to hold puts through every
single rally because you're just going
to get smoked on them like I did and
like I always say like I can't guarantee
we're always going to make money we're
always going to be perfect I'm just all
the only thing I can guarantee is I'm
going to just I'm going to show up and
I'm going to do my best for you that's
that's the best we can do and so I think
this mortgage sector is as uh Roan Kitty
would say an an asymmetric Market
opportunity and it's not one that I want
to day trade or short-term trade it's
something that I look at as okay I I
want to I want to increase my exposure
when when rates sort of take up like
they do today on hot retail sales
numbers but numbers like today what they
really do is they delay rate cuts from
the FED which actually increases the
odds of a recession and then it
increases the clamoring of the market
going fed you've gone way too far you
need to like 50 to 75 BP cut rapidly and
I think those sort of actions could
happen between Q4 and q1 of next year so
this does delay things a little bit
though which again makes hedging hard
probably the best hedge is just cash uh
but I still really like treasuries again
20 year 30 year I love those uh because
I think uh we'll see a plummet there uh
gold I'm not the biggest fan of because
if you go into soft Landing or recession
gold performs differently gold per forms
well if you go into recession not so
well if you have a soft Landing mortgage
sector does usually both well in both
scenarios because rates are coming down
and people are going crazy buying uh you
know or refinancing and taking out fin
uh taking out new loans and you know the
ones who haven't lost their jobs and
what's Wild is uh the the value of the
loans they have as long as they're not
defaulting because which that would
generally only happen if home prices are
really rapidly declining which I don't
see happening I actually see them going
up uh or stable stabled up and it
depends on where you are like California
is doing a lot better than Texas and
Florida for example then then the value
of the loans they hold actually goes up
as well so this is a thesis this is not
a guarantee but this is this is roughly
what I'm seeing right now in markets uh
I'm not going to get you know suckered
into uh the Walmart and this oh retail
sales data coming in hot which generally
always gets revised down but I will say
the data was good I have to give credit
where credit is due the data was good
and I paid the price on the hedges for
it for hedging this week but you know
what I'm a big boy it's a number I can
handle it and the only thing I can
promise said I'm going to be here and
going to show up so let me know what you
think in the comments down below this is
the shotgun mic you're hearing right now
so make sure you leave a comment shotgun
or desk microphone it's kind of cool
anyway thanks so much take a sip of this
RuneScape cup which definitely isn't
filled with kala or vodka or tequila or
all three of them mixed
together yeah anyway thanks for being
here we'll see you in the next one
goodbye and good luck can not advertise
these things that you told us here I
feel like nobody else knows about this
we'll we'll try a little advertising and
see how it goes congratulations man you
have done so much people love you people
look up to you Kevin pafra there
financial analyst and YouTuber meet
Kevin always great to get your take
even though I'm a licensed financial
adviser licensed real estate broker and
becoming a stock broker this video is
not personalized advice for you it is
not tax legal or otherwise personalized
advice tailor to you this video provides
generalized perspective information and
commentary any third-party content I
show shall not be deemed endorsed by me
this video is not and shall never be
deemed reasonably sufficient information
for the purposes of evaluating a
security or investment decision any
links or promoted products are either
paid affiliations or products or
Services we may benefit from I also
personally operate an actively managed
ETF I may personally hold or otherwise
hold long or short positions in various
Securities potentially including those
mentioned in this video however I have
no relationship to any issuer other than
house act nor am I presently acting as a
market maker make sure if you're
considering investing in house Haack to
always read the PPM at house.com
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