Is the Stock Market DIP Already Over ??
Summary
TLDRDer Skript bietet eine Analyse des Aktienmarktes, der dank besser als erwarteter Inflationenzahlen anzieht. Es diskutiert die möglichen Auswirkungen des Nahen Ostens, die Besitzverhältnisse von Bitcoin und eine Vorschau auf den CPI-Inflationenbericht. Es geht auch auf die Chancen eines Soft Landings der Wirtschaft und die potenziellen Rezession ein, während es auf die Bedeutung der Unternehmensgewinne und die Reaktion auf die geplanten Zinssenkungen der FED hinweist. Zudem erwähnt es die geopolitischen Spannungen mit Iran und deren Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffmärkte.
Takeaways
- 📈 Der Aktienmarkt hat sich aufgrund besserer als erwarteter Inflationen-Daten erholt.
- 📉 Der Energiesektor war der Schwächeste, mit Rückgängigmachung von Rohöl.
- 🌐 Der Mittlere Osten-Konflikt scheint vorübergehend abgeklungen zu sein, und die Märkte reagieren nicht besorgt.
- 🚀 Die Halbleiterbranche hat an Führungspositionen gewonnen, mit Nvidia zu einem Anstieg von 62%.
- 💊 Eli Lilly und Tesla sind unter den heißen Werten mit einem starken Börsenwertanstieg.
- 📊 Die Indizes sind noch unter ihrem 50-Tage-Volumgewichteten-Schiebemittel, was auf eine mögliche Marktbottleneck hindeutet.
- 💰 Die Weichheit der Inflation könnte die Notenbank ermutigen, die Zinssenkungen zu beschleunigen.
- 📊 Die PPI-Trends deuten auf eine Abnahme der Inflation hin, was die Märkte beruhigen könnte.
- 📉 Die Aktien von Home Depot gaben eine Warnung vor einem Verlangsamen des Konsums ab, was jedoch nicht stark auf den Aktienkurs einwirkte.
- ☕ Starbucks erlebte ihren besten Börsentag, nachdem bekannt wurde, dass ein neuer CEO mit guter Fast-Food-Referenz aufgenommen wurde.
- 🤔 Es gibt unterschiedliche Meinungen über die Inflation und die zukünftigen Zinssenkungen, was Unsicherheit im Markt schafft.
Q & A
Was hat den Aktienmarkt am gestrigen 'bullish Tuesday' im positiven Bereich geführt?
-Der Aktienmarkt wurde vor allem von Halbleitern geführt, wobei Nvidia mit einem Anstieg von 62% auffiel. Andere heiße Aktien waren Eli Lilly, die stark handelte, und Tesla, das um über 5% stieg. Industrie, Gesundheitswesen und Finanzen hatten auch einen guten Tag.
Warum könnte der Aktienmarktabsturz vorübergehend sein?
-Der Aktienmarktabsturz könnte vorübergehend sein, da die Indizes immer noch unter ihren 50-Tage-Volume Weighted Moving Averages (VWMA) sind, aber je weiter der Markt von dem Tiefstand des letzten Montags entfernt wird, desto größer ist die Möglichkeit, dass dieser tatsächlich der Absoluttiefstand war. Ein solcher Rückgang von 8,1-12% könnte als sehr günstiges Szenario angesehen werden, da der S&P 500 im Durchschnitt pro Jahr einen Rückgang von 14,5% erleidet.
Welche Rolle spielen weiche Inflationswerte für die Aktienmarktentwicklung?
-Weiche Inflationswerte, wie sie im Skript erwähnt wurden, können die Aktienmärkte stützen, da sie die Furcht vor zunehmenden Inflationen reduzieren und die Hoffnung auf eine 'weiche Landung' der Wirtschaft erhöhen. Eine 'weiche Landung' bedeutet, dass die Wirtschaft eine Verlangsamung erleidet, aber keine Rezession eintritt.
Was bedeutet die Erwähnung der 'CPI-Inflation Bericht' für die Marktteilnehmer?
-Der CPI-Inflation Bericht ist ein wichtiger wirtschaftlicher Indikator, der den Verbraucherpreisindex misst. Seine Veröffentlichung kann die Märkte beeinflussen, da er Einblicke in die Inflationstrends gibt, die die Entscheidungen der Zentralbanken über die Geldpolitik beeinflussen können.
Welche Faktoren könnten zu einem weiteren Anstieg der Aktienmärkte führen?
-Faktoren, die zu einem weiteren Anstieg der Aktienmärkte führen könnten, beinhalten positive Korporate-Gewinnmeldungen, die Überschreitung von Erwartungen bei Gewinnen und Prognosen, sowie eine Verbesserung der wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen, die auf eine 'weiche Landung' hindeuten könnte.
Was zeigt der Verlauf des VIX-Index?
-Der VIX-Index, auch als 'Furcht-Index' bekannt, zeigt die Marktvolatilität. Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass der VIX schnell nach einem Anstieg auf einen '18-Handhabe' zurückgegangen ist, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Optionenhandler möglicherweise keine zu hohen Prämien für zukünftige Bewegungen verlangen.
Was bedeuten die aktuellen Zinssätze für Japanische Government Bonds (JGBs) für den Yen-Carry-Trade?
-Die niedrigen Zinssätze für JGBs, wie im Skript erwähnt, mit einem 10-jährigen Zinssatz von 0,84%, sind ein Faktor, der den Yen-Carry-Trade attraktiv hält, da Investoren hohe Zinsdifferenzen ausnutzen können, indem sie Yen borrowen und in höhere Zinsätze investieren.
Welche Rolle spielen Führungswechsel in Unternehmen wie Starbucks im Aktienmarkt?
-Führungswechsel in Schlüsselunternehmen können den Aktienkurs stark beeinflussen. Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass der neue CEO von Starbucks, Brian Niccol, den Aktienkurs um 24% an einem Tag steigerte, was die Bedeutung eines erfolgreichen Führungswechsels zeigt.
Was bedeuten die aktuellen Haushaltsschulden und deren Verzugsquoten für die US-Wirtschaft?
-Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass die Haushaltsschulden und die Verzugsquoten niedrig sind, was darauf hindeutet, dass die US-Wirtschaft derzeit keine großen Probleme mit Schuldenrückständen hat. Dies kann ein positives Signal für die Wirtschaft und den Aktienmarkt sein.
Was ist die aktuelle Haltung der Märkte gegenüber einer möglichen Rezession?
-Der Aktienmarkt scheint eine 'weiche Landung' der Wirtschaft zu hoffen, obwohl viele Beobachter eine Rezession fürchten. Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass die Märkte eine 'weiche Landung' als eine alternative zu einer Rezession in Betracht ziehen, was auf eine optimistischere Haltung gegenüber der wirtschaftlichen Zukunft hindeutet.
Wie beeinflusst die geopolitische Situation, insbesondere im Nahen Osten, die Märkte?
-Obwohl es Spannungen im Nahen Osten gibt, scheinen die Märkte derzeit nicht zu große Sorgen zu haben. Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass die Aktienmärkte und Rohstoffpreise relativ unbeeinflusst von der Situation im Nahen Osten bleiben, was auf eine geringe Beunruhigung der Investoren hinweist.
Outlines
📈 Aktienmarkt steigt auf Grund besserer Inflationserwartungen
Der erste Absatz beschäftigt sich mit der aktuellen Situation des Aktienmarktes, der aufgrund überschrittener Inflationserwartungen anzieht. Es wird erwähnt, dass einige Sektoren wie der Energiesektor und der Verbraucherdiscretionary-Sektor unter ihrem 50-Tage-Mittel liegen, während der Markt von Halbleitern geführt wird, mit Nvidia, das einen Anstieg von 62% verzeichnen kann. Auch einige heiße Aktien wie Eli Lily und Tesla sind aufgeführt, die einen Anstieg verzeichnen. Es wird diskutiert, dass die Indizes immer noch unter ihrem 50-Tage-Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) sind, aber die Möglichkeit, dass der Bottom des Marktes bereits erreicht wurde, wird diskutiert. Zudem wird auf die Bedeutung der bevorstehenden Arbeitsmarktberichte und die Möglichkeit eines 'soft landing' für die Wirtschaft hingewiesen.
🌐 Analyse der Rezessionsbefürchtungen und geopolitische Risiken
Der zweite Absatz behandelt die Bedenken hinsichtlich einer möglichen Rezession und die Auswirkungen von geopolitischen Risiken, insbesondere im Nahen Osten. Es wird erwähnt, dass die Marktbeteiligten skeptisch sind und auf der Wartestellung sind, insbesondere aufgrund von Insiderverkauf bei Technologie-Riesen wie Nvidia, Facebook und Amazon. Die Diskussion um die Furcht vor einem Krieg im Nahen Osten und die Reaktion des Marktes auf diese Nachrichten wird dargestellt. Zudem wird auf die Bedeutung der Yen-Carry-Trade-Entwicklung und die Aussagen von Analysten bezüglich der Währungsbewertung und der zukünftigen Dynamik des Yen hinzugefügt.
🛒 Einblicke in den US-Aktienmarkt und die Auswirkungen von Führungswechseln
Der dritte Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Dynamiken im US-Aktienmarkt und wie Unternehmensneuigkeiten Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs nehmen können. Es wird auf die Warnung von Home Depot vor einem Verlangsamen des Konsums eingegangen, die Ernennung von Brian Niccol, dem ehemaligen CEO von Chipotle, als neuer Starbucks-CEO und die positive Reaktion des Marktes auf diese Neuigkeit hingewiesen. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung von Aktionärsbuybacks und die Rolle von Führungswechseln in der Wirtschaft diskutiert, sowie auf die Unterschiede zwischen dem heutigen Tech-Boom und dem des späten 90er Jahre.
📊 Entwicklungen der Inflation und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft
Der vierte Absatz behandelt die Entwicklung der Inflation und wie diese die Wirtschaft und den Aktienmarkt beeinflusst. Es wird auf den Rückgang der PPI und die Erwartungen bezüglich der zukünftigen Inflationstrends eingegangen. Es wird auch diskutiert, dass die Inflation in Bereichen wie Autoversicherung und Unterkünfte nachgeht und dass die Rohstoffpreise dazu beitragen, den Inflationstrend nach unten zu drücken. Zudem wird auf die Aussagen von Zentralbankpräsidenten und die Erwartungen bezüglich zukünftiger Zinssenkungen hingewiesen.
⚔ geopolitische Spannungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffmärkte
Der fünfte und letzte Absatz spiegelt die geopolitischen Spannungen wider, die die Märkte beeinflussen, insbesondere die Erwartungen bezüglich der Reaktion Irans auf die aktuellen Entwicklungen. Es wird auf die Unruhe im Rohstoffmarkt und die Erwartungen bezüglich der Reaktion Irans auf die geopolitischen Ereignisse eingegangen. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung von Gold als Schatzhaus in Zeiten der Unsicherheit und die Haltung der Zentralbanken gegenüber Kryptowährungen wie Bitcoin diskutiert.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Inflation
💡Aktienmarkt
💡Semiconductors
💡50-Tage-Bewegungsmittelwert
💡CPI-Inflation Report
💡VIX
💡Recession
💡Corporate Earnings
💡Crude Oil
💡Bitcoin
Highlights
Stock market rebounded across the board due to better than expected inflation data.
Energy and consumer discretionary sectors were the only ones not above their 50-day moving averages.
Semiconductors led the market higher, with Nvidia gaining 62%.
Despite the market's recovery, indices are still below their 50-day volume weighted moving averages.
The possibility of the recent low being the bottom of the 8-12% pullback is increasing.
S&P 500's average annual pullback is 14.5%, and current market conditions suggest it could be lower.
Corporate earnings are tracking above expectations, with many companies beating forecasts.
The VIX index has returned to a lower level, indicating less market volatility.
The difference between bond market and stock market volatility is climbing back, which could be a bullish signal for stocks.
Bitcoin is hovering just below the 50-day mark above $60,000.
Gold is resting at all-time highs of $2,500 an ounce.
Most sectors finished higher, led by growth, despite energy and oil and gas pulling back.
Large-cap tech insiders have been selling significant amounts of stock.
The VIX spike is considered by some as an abnormal print due to market conditions.
Japanese markets experienced a significant drop but have since rebounded.
Starbucks stock had its best day ever with the announcement of a new CEO from Chipotle.
Nvidia's earnings are anticipated to be a key market driver later this month.
Inflation data is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts.
Total household debt and delinquency rates are low, indicating a healthy economy.
Geopolitical tensions with Iran are being closely watched, but markets do not seem overly concerned.
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is the third-largest holder of Bitcoin, after Binance and the creator of Bitcoin.
Transcripts
coming up today stock saw across the
board thanks to better than expected
inflation data is the stock market dip
over Iran fears fade who owns the most
amount of Bitcoin and a preview of the
CPI inflation report
[Music]
tomorrow and welcome back everybody on
this bullish Tuesday in the markets just
when things look like they're about to
roll over up she squeezes again now
getting quite a bit more green up the
front in markets in fact we've only got
energy and consumer discretionary as are
two sectors underneath their 50-day
energy was really only the real weak
sector today we can see that in the heat
map pretty much energy the only one
coming off as we had a bit of a pullback
and crude oil Market seems to really not
be worried about any potential large
conflict in the Middle East and who
knows maybe Iran is still a little
unsure of how to respond now that
they're surrounded by Western military
assets have more on that later on the
market was led higher today by
semiconductors Nvidia slapping on 62%
some other hot stocks Eli Lily trading
up Tesla adding over 5% and Industrials
health care and financials all enjoying
a good day as well however we're not out
of the woods just yet all indices still
below their 50-day volume weighted
moving averages however the more we
creep away from last Monday's low just
increases the possibility that that may
have actually been the bottom in this 8
1 12% pullback and like I've been saying
if so that would be the very best case
scenario as On Any Given year the S&P
500 on average will do a 14 a half%
pullback so given the elevated risks in
the macro backdrop recession fears
geopolitics heading into what looks like
could be a contested US federal election
it wouldn't be all that reasonable to
think the market could do an average
inear drop of 14% And if we did that
would take us down to about 4,800 on the
S&P 500 however we keep getting soft
inflation prints like we did today and
I'd say a big one would be the jobs
report next month on the first Friday
it's really what spooked the market got
Bon yields diving if that came in at 43
42 or better along with things not
blowing up in the Middle East then who
knows 5123 very well could be the low
for the rest of the year CU we do have
corporate earning tracking really good
above expectations on Beats and guidance
and we did just do a bit over a 500
point retracement on S&P 500 so just
going out to the weekly chart maybe if
it can reclaim this elevated Trend back
above 5500 who knows it could be off to
Blue Skies again and to try and get an
idea on the structure of the market we
look at bre today pretty good on volume
over four times as much volume and
advancing stocks NC then declining
overall breadth holding up 59% of stocks
above their 50-day average still not the
best on the amount of stocks hitting New
52 we highs still pretty subdued and
look at that the vix already back into
an 18 handle just amazing how quick the
vix can Crush after it spikes up fix one
day still a little elevated 9.3 option
dealers potentially pricing in a bit of
movement tomorrow after we get the CPI
inflation release pretty good sign to me
is volatility risk premium now back into
negative territory difference between
the vix and realized volatility and last
time we went back into negative
territory back in early May right after
the stock market finished its dip so
according to option dealers they're not
really worried about what's around the
corner they're not asking for a premium
on top of how much stocks are already
moving at the moment and just looking at
the spread between bond market and stock
market volatility that's climbing back
as well which I think is a bullish
signal for stocks when you've got the
volatility and the stock market
improving a lot versus bonds they have
the 2-year yield creep Back Down Under
4% today and the 10e as well like I've
been saying I'm going to pay close
attention to the price action and these
tomorrow after we get that CPI print
high bonds looking good no problems
going on in the credit markets Japanese
Yen as well creeping back up looking
more and more likely last Monday was
capitulation like I've been saying 70
80% chance I'm sure we've already seen
the worst of it when it comes to the Y
carry trade unwind and volatility
however we can't rule it out just yet I
could be wrong markets can surprise all
of us so I'll be looking for a close
above the 50-day vwap for more
confirmation that we've already seen the
worst of it in the Japanese Yen Bitcoin
looking good just hovering below the
50-day above $60,000 a coin we got gold
just resting at all-time highs $2,500 an
oun and crude oil retracing a little bit
just below its 5078 a barrel looking
across all sectors they were green today
except energy oil and gas even the
defensive sectors showed up all factors
finishing higher led by growth and
here's a look at some of the biggest
stocks in the market Microsoft having
another good bounce back today there's
Nvidia remember I showed you guys last
week on the 15minute charts there was
really strong signs of accumulation on
those dips when you look underneath the
hood of the daily candle here we are
sitting back at the 50-day already along
with all semis having a good bounce arm
Holdings slapping on another 5.6% today
and pretty much bullish across the board
just looking at the price action big
stocks JP Morgan back above the 50-day
and like Nvidia other Market leaders Eli
Lily trading up above the 50 as well so
the market showing a bit of strength
here in its leaders and its growth names
and in breadth as well just not so many
stocks breaking out to 52 we highs yet
but overall most of them are sitting
above their medium long-term averages
volatility coming down corporate
earnings are accelerating economy is
still growing still a chance of a soft
Landing however that's still contrarian
view as most people are convinced if
we're not already in a recession it is
just around the corner and I'll show you
some more data on the economy and the
odds of a recession soon first let's
just get back to the stock market and
whilst we're still in a seasonally weak
period we do have a couple of bullish
catalysts that could take over a lot of
people are still on the sideline and
very skeptical of this bounce with
articles like don't rush back into the
stock market as more pain is coming if
the economy keeps slowing that stifles
Barry banister said there's still reason
to be cautious the fed's 2% inflation
goal is just a pipe dream and he still
expects we'll get a 10% Market
correction taking us down to 5,000 by
October and over the last couple of
months we have seen relatively large
amount of Insider selling especially
from Mega cap Tech Jensen hang CEO of
Nvidia has been offloading hundreds of
millions of dollars worth of stock seen
Marcus Zuckerberg Jeff Bezos has
offloaded even more and some skeptical
over the bullish implications of a spike
in the fear index the vix with one
analyst calling the vix 65 print a
garbage piece of data saying use it in
you're investing at your own Peril and I
guess there's an argument to be made
there like I pointed out it was a real
abnormal print given market and macro
conditions However the fact it did get
there just shows how loose liquidity the
options Market Came In the Heat of the
Moment last Monday lunchtime market
makers just bail widen in their bit ass
spreads causes a huge spike in the vix
there was real fear coming into Monday
morning Japanese markets were getting
created and we already had the fears
from the previous week recession diving
bond yields Middle East War surprise
jump and unemployment rate Bank Japan
indicating they're going to keep hiking
rates and on top of all that before the
market opened on Monday we got news
Warren Buffett chopped his Apple steak
in half just a perfect recipe for a
spill over in fear so I don't agree
totally with the argument of this
article we should just completely ignore
it as an abnormal print cuz you could
say that about any Market in history
when it spikes That's What markets do
they become irrational in the short term
like I said markets are like a person
who's mostly logical and sane however
every now and then gets massively drunk
becomes bipolar for a few days and never
settles down and Carries On and whilst
the fears of a recession and a middle
eastern War still linger in the
background Market's pretty much gone
over the fact where buffets cut as Apple
steak in half the real pinpoint of fear
last Monday morning was Japanese stocks
having their Black Monday at one point
down 15% however as markets often do
they put in their best gain starting
from a place of Maximum fear now we can
see that in niiki Futures traded over in
Osaka Japan that was the monster candle
from last Monday and here we are trading
up above the highs Bank of Japan came in
and kind of did a soft intervention car
markets down and said they won't
increase rates there's still this Market
volatility still think they need to
however that it's going to give the
market some time to digest this cuz I
guess coming off Rock Bottom for the
first time in years was always going to
rock markets a little bit especially
when we had a bunch of other things
going on at the same time however for
here and now just like the yen currency
it looks to have calmed down a little
bit and like the Yen I still think
there's better than a half chance we've
seen the worst of it however can't rule
it out could still be another event to
be had here well some saying the big
carry trade unwind is far from over
that's Richard Kelly head of global
strategy at TD Securities said he'd be
very hesitant to declare the end of the
carry trade unwind despite suggestions
from some economists that the roll back
may be largely complete he said he still
thinks there's a lot that can unwind
especially if you look at how
undervalued the yen is and I mean
valuing currencies is probably even more
trickier than valuing stocks because
with stocks you've got earnings you can
work out an earnings yield you can kind
of approximate what the growth will be
the next year or two out you can compare
that against the risk-free rate of
government bonds have with currencies it
gets a little more murky there a lot of
different ways value currencies
purchasing power parody using things
like the Big Mac and deck pricing a
common commodity in US Dollars you can
also look at terms of trade a whole
bunch of other things the fact is Japan
still has huge amount of debt versus GDP
more than anywhere else in the world
when developed economy and we can see
that in this chart here it's just
increased so much over the last 30 years
with now Japanese government debt 265
versus GDP and like I said that's Head
and Shoulders above other developed
countri fact there's only one other
country in the world Lebanon that's
higher there's United States at 122% not
only that but they have more of a
demographic and reproduction crisis than
the West does Japan's population's
already been declining for over 10 years
and that could actually accelerate over
the coming decades however I wouldn't
completely rule out their economy they
are a global leader in Automation and
Robotics which is definitely the future
it's already arrived so through
Innovation and Technology along with
them continuing to be a real export
dominant economy selling their cars and
electronics all around the world I don't
think Japan will completely go down the
toilet however my point is I don't think
the carry trade is going to be going
anywhere anytime soon either just
looking at jgbs Japanese government bond
10year yield 0.84% still well lower than
the rest of the world and who knows some
of these currencies Yen carry Traders
had been long like the Mexican pzo
versus Japanese Yen which you can earn a
huge overnight swap rate that's because
Mexico's overnight central bank rate is
10.75% versus Japan 0.25% so if you're
along the Mexican pzo versus Japanese
Yen you earn over 10% minus your Brokers
spread per year in overnight swaps
however that 10% doesn't mean much when
the actual currency comes off 25%
however all these people saying the end
carry trade is going to be completely
Unwound however big it is 3 trillion 5
trillion 10 trillion nobody really knows
I just don't think that's the case
because Japanese interest rates Japanese
debt the GDP all that stuff is just not
going to materially change overnight and
that's the whole reason for the Y carry
trade in the first place so it's hard to
see thep Japanese Yen appreciating for
multiple years we'd have to see a real
deterioration and other economies more
so than theirs for that to be the case
but just getting back to the US Stock
Market like I said we're not completely
out of the woods just yet S&P 500 still
below its 50-day moving average and
we've still got loose liquidity out
there just looking at the S&P 500 e-
many Futures top of book Market deth
that's the average size sitting on the
best bid and the best offer quite low at
the moment meaning markets are trading
quite thin less liquidity can exacerbate
movements just like the oppos it more
liquidity can kind of thicken the market
up and we just got earnings from a key
retailer in the state's Home Depot
warning of consumer slowdown reduced
their 4-year EPS guidance to a decline
of 2 to 4% and comparable sales to a
decline of 3 to 4% CEO said High
interest rates an economic uncertainty a
pressuring consumer spending on Home
Improvement reported earnings of 467 a
share 43 billion in sales beating
estimates comparable Us sales declined
3.6% however like one portfolio manager
pointed out company has a history of
conservative guidance so they always
lowball things a little bit and maybe he
right because the market is really not
negatively reacting to that earnings
report today pretty much holding ground
here $350 a share what's really moving
today is Starbucks who just put in its
Best Day Ever as we just got news Brian
Nicole ex CEO of Chipotle will join
Starbucks will join Starbucks on
September 9th as they've been under
pressure from activist investors Elliot
management and starboard value we're
trying to unlock value get some new
leadership a new strategy and the new
CEO does have a proven track record of
creating value in the fast food business
and the market certainly seems to love
it up 24% today and just goes to show
you how much of an impact a CEO can have
on a business just looking at how
dramatic the repricing is in the shares
here how's G out to a weekly chart still
got a bit of work to do still well off
those highs in 2021 have a looking at
the price action it very well may have
just put in a decent bottom there we at
Goldman saying today investors have the
opportunity to buy the dip ahead of
Nvidia earnings which will duw out later
on this month on the 28th and so that
and the language we get from J pal at
the Federal Reserves Jackson Hall
economic event on the 22nd will likely
once again shape this market like I've
been saying sediment is really weak here
a lot of people bailed after last week
sitting on the sidelines we can see that
in Ned Davis research their daily
trading sediment composit which is down
near the lows in extreme pessimism
territory real sharp turnaround a week
and a half ago and we still got the fear
and greed index in the extreme fear Zone
indicating most people are just not
buying into this rally and even though
we're in a seasonally weak period
looking back and history at the S&P 500
how it trades August through October one
thing that's going to be counteracting
that is we got a huge amount of
corporate buyback that to come into the
market over 90% of the S&P 500 in the
open window over the next 2 months been
able to buy back stock and that's
something that's been breaking out as
well corporate buyback and for people
worried that the tech bubble is even
more crazier now than the late '90s
that's just not simply the case cuz just
looking at the top tech stocks from back
then in the month that they peaked out
March 2000 Cisco AOL Oracle Nel micr
systems EMC JDS Qualcomm and Yahoo these
were the hot stocks back in the late
'90s a lot of people just piling into
them but just look at their price to
earnings multiple and sure they were
growing really fast just like the big
tech stocks are now however many of
these big tech stocks they're on pees
even still on their 20s 30s or 50s we
don't have pees of 668 or 217 or 148
like Cisco was in fact the PE on Nvidia
is 63 and while that sounds ridiculously
high it's not really when you consider
how fast nvidia's been growing how fast
they're likely to continue growing they
huge operating margin they're almost
Monopoly on Advanced gpus and the huge
amount of runway in front of them I'd
say that's actually reasonably priced if
Nvidia was trading for 30 or 40 times
earning that would actually be cheap cuz
the multiple you pay is relative to the
growth and the quality of that growth
Microsoft has a PE of 34 Apple 33 Amazon
39 alab Google probably the cheapest of
all of them PE of 23 meta quite
reasonable as well 26 I'd say that
almost cheap and of course Tesla well
that could be argued either way with a
PE of 55 I wouldn't necessarily call
that cheap however I wouldn't call it
ridiculously priced either given their
potential growth in the years ahead and
the good thing for the Here and Now
inflation is pulling back as we've been
expecting produce a price index
increased by 0.1% in July less than the
0.2% forecasted with a year-over-year
increase of 2.2% these PPI Trends are
closely watched they can influence the
CPI and that is trending in the right
direction real big drop there for last
month in PPI bringing other measures of
inflation down as well super core what
was really holding up inflation in
recent months auto insurance but the
insurance industry is real lagging with
their pricing so that's set to come down
as well we also need to see some more
disinflation and shelter however most
reads of inflation are trending down and
commodities has definitely helped that
and just looking at true fl's latest
read really comprehensive look at actual
prices in the US economy looking at a
lot of different retailers and things
Americans buy their latest print shows a
year-over-year change of 1.5% which is
down near the oneyear lows so the market
is pricing in a significant path lower
for interest rate over the next 12
months in fact over 1 1/2% Market thinks
will be down around 3 and A2 this time
next year from where we currently are 5
and a quarter still risks of our urgence
though still got shipping rates climbing
up still could see some commodity
disruption however a like Goldman
forecasts pretty much the whole world is
going into monetary loosening it's
already started central banks around the
world trimming rates and their markets
forecasting lower rates months ahead as
well we even got Raphael bosk president
and chief executive of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Atlanta saying he
expects the US economy will be ready for
interest straight cuts within the next
several months and he doesn't see a
recession in sight he talking about
economic normalization thinks they can
get inflation down near 2% closely
monitoring employment still hopeful of a
soft Landing however the market has
priced in a higher chances of a
recession over the last month or two
that's kind of what got Bon yields
diving spooked the stock market a little
bit as well Goldman Sachs puts a
probability of a US recession in the
next year at 40 1% keep in mind they
were higher back in May last year they
thought there was a better chance than
not would be in a recession by now so
like I said we got Bon yields pulling
back today after that soft PPI print
what sort of print are we going to get
on CPI tomorrow we'll find out before
the Market opens 8:30 a.m. eastern time
expected to show 0.2% increase on the
headline and core month over month and
this could really solidify the fed's
thinking on a potential cut next month
this comes in as expected who knows
maybe even a touch better the FED does
have the window to Cut Rate however like
I've been saying we can't rule out the
possibility that Jay just wants to hold
until after the election to see who he's
dealing with in the white house maybe
just cover himself a bit more that
inflation's definitely been put to bed
and I think that could quite upset the
stock market and then we might get that
pull back to 5,000 on the S&P 500 if Jay
kind of hints at that and Jackson Hall
come next Thursday and Friday going into
next weekend we'll be looking at his
language to see if he gives us a hint
that he's ready to cut if CPI comes in
good tomorrow and more good news just
looking at total household debt and the
delinquency status on that debt is
actually pretty low there's 30 days late
in the blue line under 1% with very late
debt at 1.3% and 60 to 120 days pretty
low 0.2 to 0.4% a real different look
going into the last big recession we had
200 2008 clearly trending up and Peak
inside it or a little bit afterwards and
something else interesting to note with
recessions so I think people think they
happen a lot more often than what they
actually do especially in modern times
ever since financial markets really got
modernized in mid mid late ' 80s the fed
put lot of new financial instruments
electrification better access you look
at the frequencies of recessions before
that so really kind of regular thing
have a looking back in the last 30 years
the 1994 we've only had three recessions
and the 2021 is questionable as it was
so sharp and shortlived and technically
met it was caused from a global pandemic
so it still happened however even
including that over the last 30 years
we've only really had three recessions
could even argue two even three is one a
decade so you could argue both ways
maybe there's going to be a reversion to
the mean we're going to see more regular
recessions or maybe you could argue the
markets have changed government and
Federal Reserve have gotten better at
managing the economy interest rate maybe
America's dominance with technology
gives it some exceptional conditions to
enjoy but I guess we won't know for
another 6 or 12 months or so and like I
said wouldn't it be a nice surprise for
markets on the first Friday of September
if the unemployment rate came in better
than expected it's what really spooked
markets 2 weeks ago good news is United
Kingdom just had a surprise fall and
there unemployment rate with wage growth
slowing and so it was expected to come
in at 4.5% actually came in at 4.2%
meaning the United Kingdom has a more
fully employed economy the United States
and remember we live in a globally
synchronized World especially in the
west so this to me is a good sign for
the next print we get on unemployment
from the state over to geopolitics and
commodity markets been waiting for
Iran's response for over a week now been
told it could happen any day the latest
we've got is Iran rejecting Western
calls to refrain from Attack on Israel
Western diplomats been trying to cool
things down as Iran not to send 500
missiles to Israel as they risk a
full-blown War promised they will get a
response if they do cause any
significant damage in Israel however
they appear to be waiting for something
maybe some more weapons from Russia
maybe getting all their proxies ready
for a multi-front attack however on the
same hand Israel in the west was also
getting more assets in the region and
ready still the potential for a big
Showdown however for the here and now
the market is just simply not all that
worried about it looks like stocks
couldn't even care less oil did trade up
a bit over the last week pulled back a
little bit today maybe a bit of worries
over demand been a little bit soft
lately so we'll just have to wait and
see to see what sort of response Iran is
going to give expect them to do
something just may not be a fulls scale
attack and all the missiles might be
able to be shot down again just like in
April Gold's still sitting pretty though
at all-time highs still pricing in a bit
of geopolitical risk in my opinion along
with a chance for lower rate that's
another Tailwind actual demand in the
physical Market still breaking out to
records nonwestern central banks still
want to accumulate and huddle it and
they may also want to do the same thing
with Bitcoin apparently we've only got
two governments in the top 10 list of
Bitcoin holders US Government 213,000
coins Chinese government 190,000 but
look at that black Rock's Bitcoin ETF I
bit the third largest owner of Bitcoin
after binance exchange and the creator
of Bitcoin whom is still officially an
unknown person satosi Nakamoto 1.1
million coins he holds in his wallet if
the guy is still even alive and I wonder
if we'll ever find out who he really is
there's a look at fed fund future
pitches actually gone back to pricing in
high probability we get a 50 basis point
cut next month than 25 they think Jay's
going to kick things off with a bang and
get straight to work which we can't rule
out for sure however I still think the
odds are at a 25 basis point cut he's
still got to be mindful of lingering
inflation can't say for sure it's
definitely been beat like I said he
lived through the 70s where they thought
it was beat in 1976 as well but who
knows if he's seen sharp signs of
deterioration in the economy he may just
want to get to work with 50 basis point
cut but I'd say this next meeting is
really crunch time he could really go
either way he could hold he could do 25
he could do 50 this is really up in the
air this next meeting that could give a
bit of volatility in the bond market
potentially the stock market as well but
like I said for the Here and Now appear
to be holding on almost back at the
50-day on the S&P 500 with that sharp
dive in volatility risk premium really
sticking out to me here today amongst
all others and of course tomorrow could
be another test for this market after we
get CPI should be an interesting one
thanks very much for tuning in with me
today and I look forward to breaking all
down again for you guys tomorrow cheers
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