【硬核】一口气了解国债,这么一直借下去真的可以么?

小Lin说
2 Jun 202321:28

Summary

TLDRThe video discusses government debt - the trend of rising debt levels globally and reasons governments borrow money. It covers debt ceilings, fiscal deficits, economic theories supporting government spending, internal vs external debt, factors limiting debt issuance like interest rates and inflation, and options when debt gets too high like austerity, default or 'dragging it'.

Takeaways

  • 😀Governments borrow money to fund deficits caused by higher spending than tax revenue
  • 😮Government debt levels relative to GDP have been rising steadily in major economies
  • 🤔There are debates on whether governments should borrow more based on modern monetary theory
  • 😲High government debt can raise interest rates and hurt the economy if uncontrolled
  • 📉Quantitative easing helps lower interest rates so debt costs stay manageable
  • 😠High inflation is the biggest threat that can force spending cuts to control debt
  • 👍🏻Low interest rates and inflation allow more borrowing without economic pain
  • 😥Austerity, default or money printing are ways to address high debt issues
  • 🤨Countries often just delay the pain by borrowing more to pay off old debt
  • 😫Voters make long-term austerity hard so governments keep borrowing

Q & A

  • What was the main factor that caused the Great Depression and led economists to rethink the role of government in the economy?

    -The inaction of the US government and its refusal to intervene during the economic downturn was seen as a key factor in the Great Depression lasting over a decade. This led economists like John Maynard Keynes to argue that governments should take an active role, especially during economic crises.

  • How does increasing government debt raise interest rates across the economy?

    -Issuing more government bonds increases the supply, lowering bond prices and causing interest rates to rise. Since government bond rates determine the risk-free rate, interest rates across the wider economy also increase.

  • What is the difference between internal and external debt for a government?

    -Internal debt is borrowed domestically using bonds denominated in local currency. This gives more flexibility as debt can be monetized. External debt is borrowed from foreign creditors in foreign currencies, increasing vulnerability to default.

  • How does quantitative easing help governments take on more debt?

    -Central banks use QE to buy bonds and lower long-term rates. This reduces the interest cost of new debt, allowing governments to borrow more without rate spikes.

  • Why is inflation the limiting factor for government borrowing and spending?

    -When inflation gets out of control due to excessive spending, central banks lose their ability to lower rates artificially. The only solution left is austerity measures to suppress inflation and growth.

  • What are the three main options governments have when they issue too much debt?

    -When debt gets too high, governments can (1) implement austerity by cutting spending (2) default on the debt or (3) 'drag it' by borrowing more to pay off old debt.

  • How does the US debt ceiling provide political leverage rather than restrict spending?

    -The debt limit has been constantly raised, showing it doesn't really restrict government borrowing. However it does give parties political leverage during negotiations.

  • Why do most governments choose to 'drag' high debt rather than impose austerity or default?

    -Dragging debt by borrowing more is politically easier as it avoids painful short-term consequences of austerity or default. But it fails to address the underlying debt problem.

  • How did quantitative easing allow Japan to increase its debt level substantially?

    -Japan used QE to artificially suppress bond yields, reducing the interest cost of debt. This allowed the government to take on more and more debt without rate spikes.

  • What parallels can be drawn between the US debt situation today compared to Japan's in recent years?

    -Like Japan, US debt is high but interest rates were low pre-pandemic due to QE policies. However, with inflation and rates now rising, US debt capacity may face issues like Japan did before Abenomics.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 政府の借金とその論理

このセクションでは、世界各国が急速に増加させている政府の借金に焦点を当てています。アメリカ、イギリス、ユーロゾーン、中国、そして世界で最も多くの借金を抱える日本など、多くの国々がGDP比で高い借金を有しており、その意味と影響について掘り下げています。政府が大量の借金をする背後にある論理、特に借金が経済に与える影響や、デフォルト(債務不履行)のリスク、政府の支出と収入の構造、そして財政赤字の常態化について説明しています。また、デットシーリング(借金上限)の概念と、それが象徴的な制約である理由、そして調整の頻度についても触れられています。

05:00

📈 政府支出の理論的根拠と現代貨幣理論

このセクションでは、政府がなぜ大量の借金をし、経済に投資するのかの理論的基盤について深掘りしています。経済危機や不況時に政府が積極的に支出を行う理由、そしてその支出が経済に与える刺激効果について説明しています。また、近年注目を集める現代貨幣理論(MMT)についても触れ、政府の借金と支出が経済にとってどのように機能するか、そしてその限界について考察しています。さらに、政府と中央銀行の関係、内部債務と外部債務の違い、および経済活動における債務の役割についても説明しています。

10:01

💰 政府借金の制約とインフレの問題

このセクションでは、政府の借金が直面する主要な制約、特に利子率とインフレーションの影響に焦点を当てています。政府の借金が経済に与える潜在的な影響、借金のコスト上昇、およびインフレーションへの対応不足が経済に与える影響について分析しています。また、量的緩和(QE)とその政府の借金に対する影響、特に長期金利に対する中央銀行の介入とその結果についても詳しく説明しています。

15:02

🔍 債務問題への対処法

このセクションでは、政府が過剰な借金をどのように管理し、経済を安定させるかについての様々な戦略について説明しています。具体的には、緊縮財政、デフォルトや債務再編、そして問題の先延ばしという三つの主要な方法について詳細に分析しています。これらの戦略が経済に及ぼす影響、特に短期的および長期的な結果について考察しています。また、政府が直面する政治的および経済的制約、およびこれらの戦略の実施が選挙民や政治システムに与える影響についても触れています。

20:03

🌐 政府借金のマクロ経済学

最終セクションでは、政府借金とマクロ経済政策の全体像についての包括的な解説を提供しています。政府がなぜ借金をするのか、借金の限界とその経済への影響、および借金管理のための様々なアプローチについての深い洞察を提供しています。また、このエピソードが視聴者にマクロ経済学と各国の財政政策についての理解を深めることを目的としていることを強調し、視聴者に対する感謝の意を表明しています。

Mindmap

Keywords

The video is abnormal, and we are working hard to fix it.
Please replace the link and try again.

Highlights

US government debt has risen over 120% of GDP in the past 25 years

Japan has the highest government debt in the world at 260% of GDP

Constant budget deficits lead governments to borrow money by issuing bonds

Governments spend borrowed money to provide public services and stimulate the economy

The debt ceiling is mainly symbolic and used by US political parties to argue

Keynesian economics says governments should borrow and spend money to increase demand during recessions

Modern Monetary Theory claims governments can freely borrow as long as there is no inflation

Internal government debt is more controllable than external debt denominated in foreign currencies

Higher interest rates restrict governments by making borrowing more expensive

Central bank quantitative easing aims to lower interest rates so governments can borrow more

Inflation is the key restriction on government borrowing that cannot be avoided

Facing excessive debt, governments can pursue austerity, default, or drag out the problem

Austerity brings economic pain in the short term but can solve debt issues

Defaults seriously damage a country's creditworthiness and access to financing

Dragging out debt issues with more borrowing is politically expedient but risky

Transcripts

play00:00

Our video today is very hardcore

play00:02

Let's talk about a topic

play00:03

that is arguably the centre of the financial universe

play00:05

Very interesting

play00:05

and intricate

play00:07

Very suitable for me to talk about it

play00:08

That is

play00:09

Government Debt

play00:12

This is the trend of the U.S.

play00:13

debt to GDP over the past 25 years

play00:15

play00:17

Now it's over 120%

play00:18

Britain, the Eurozone and China

play00:20

at what seems like an incredible speed

play00:23

increase their own country's government debt

play00:25

And the most outrageous

play00:26

the world's most prolific borrower

play00:28

is Japan

play00:29

The government debt is the highest in the world at 260% of GDP

play00:32

What does this number means?

play00:33

It takes every person in Japan 2.6 years to make

play00:35

enough money to pay off their national debt

play00:37

If you look at the revenue of the

play00:38

Japanese government in 2022

play00:40

If they don’t eat or drink or spend any money

play00:42

not even a cent

play00:43

then it’ll take them 18 years to clear the debt

play00:47

Have the government of these countries gone crazy

play00:49

borrowing so much money

play00:50

What’s the logic behind it?

play00:52

Will US default on its debt

play00:53

Why do some economists say

play00:55

its better for government to borrow more and more money

play00:56

how much money is considered a lot?

play01:02

To be honest

play01:03

when I was crafting the script for this episode

play01:04

I believe the contents are valuable

play01:06

I try to

play01:07

make it easy to understand

play01:08

If you think this video is useful

play01:09

You can save it as favourite

play01:11

This will make your

play01:12

collection more valuable

play01:15

Every government makes money

play01:17

and spends money

play01:18

This is US government’s income for the past 30 years

play01:20

95% of them comes from tax

play01:22

This is their spending

play01:24

They spend their money on public utilities like

play01:25

National defence, military, infrastructure, etc

play01:27

You will find that

play01:28

most of the time they spend more than they earn

play01:31

In technical terms, it's called constant budget deficits

play01:33

Where did the extra money come from?

play01:35

Government would issue bonds to borrow money from the market

play01:37

to make up for this part of the funding gap.

play01:39

You can see the fiscal balance of

play01:41

China, Japan, UK and Eurozone

play01:43

they are all in constant deficit

play01:46

If you just look at this financial situation

play01:47

if it’s your next door neighbour

play01:48

then he is probably a prodigal

play01:50

But that doesn't seem to hold true for a country

play01:52

Let’s first take a look at

play01:53

debt ceiling, a topic

play01:54

heavily debated for past few days

play01:58

In order to control themselves

play02:00

so that the government spending won’t go too high

play02:01

there exist a symbolistic system

play02:04

called

play02:04

Debt Ceiling

play02:05

The congress would vote on deciding the line

play02:07

The treasury cannot borrow money

play02:09

beyond this line

play02:11

This sounds like a reasonable restriction

play02:13

and self-restrain

play02:14

But why did I say it’s symbolistic?

play02:16

Once the debt nears the ceiling

play02:18

the Congress would immediately held a vote

play02:19

When it’s getting close, there’ll be a vote

play02:20

When it’s getting close, there’ll be a vote

play02:21

So from 1981 till now

play02:22

In 42 years

play02:23

the debt ceiling has been adjusted 42 times

play02:25

On average, it is raised once a year

play02:28

Actually everyone knows that

play02:29

if there’s a problem with US debt

play02:31

like a default

play02:32

then the blow to the entire U.S. economy would be devastating

play02:35

White House predicted that

play02:36

if the default lasts for a few weeks

play02:38

it would lead to a 45% drop in the U.S. stock market

play02:41

More than 8 million people would lose their jobs

play02:42

In short, the consequences are very severe

play02:44

So this debt ceiling

play02:45

mainly gives the two parties an opportunity to quarrel

play02:48

Now Biden’s Democrats is in power

play02:50

but in Congress

play02:51

majority is Republicans

play02:53

So the Speaker of the House, McCarthy

play02:55

wanted to take this opportunity

play02:56

to force Biden to reduce financial expenditure

play02:58

So both sides are negotiating

play03:00

this financial mechanism

play03:01

play03:02

Two years ago when Biden

play03:04

threw in $5 trillion to stimulate the economy, they didn’t do anything

play03:06

Now they want to start negotiation when the debt ceiling is close

play03:08

Actually there aren’t many countries

play03:09

in the world that has debt ceiling

play03:11

Other than US, there is Denmark

play03:12

But Denmark debt ceiling is very high

play03:14

Three times their current debt

play03:16

so the debt ceiling is basically just a farce

play03:17

There is really no country in the world

play03:19

that restricts its own country's debt issuance

play03:20

because of debt ceiling

play03:21

For the past 50 years

play03:22

Global government debt continues to rise

play03:27

Why do you think they are borrowing so much?

play03:29

What are they thinking?

play03:30

Are they not happy?

play03:32

Lin is going to

play03:34

give you a

play03:35

Economic 101

play03:38

First we have to understand

play03:39

what is the problem we are trying to solve

play03:41

Government borrows money to spend

play03:43

the problem is why are these governments

play03:46

spending so much money?

play03:47

The father of modern economics

play03:48

the one who introduced

play03:49

The Invisible Hand, Adam Smith

play03:51

he actually was very against government spending

play03:53

He believes that market competition is the most efficient

play03:55

So the less the government manages, the better.

play03:58

the smaller the better

play03:59

If you borrow so much money and spend so much money

play04:00

it is very irresponsible

play04:03

US followed his theory

play04:05

from 18th to 19th centuries.

play04:06

encouraged competitions

play04:07

The government would not regulate anything

play04:09

But slowly the problem arises

play04:10

he realised that

play04:11

If the market is completely free to compete

play04:13

the economy will collapse every once in a while

play04:15

the economy will collapse every once in a while

play04:16

The worst was

play04:17

the Great Depression in 1929

play04:19

In the face of such a great depression

play04:20

US government was firmed on their practice

play04:22

play04:24

I don't want to intervene too much in the economic cycle

play04:25

Unexpectedly, this depression lasted for more than a decade

play04:28

Afterwards, many economists believe that

play04:29

the reason why this depression can last for so long

play04:31

is due to government’s inaction.

play04:36

Under the background of this era

play04:37

another great economist appeared

play04:39

John Maynard Keynes

play04:41

He put forward a set of new theories

play04:42

adopted by the governments over the world

play04:44

The most succinct summary is that the market will also fail

play04:47

so the government cannot ignore completely

play04:50

especially during economy downturn

play04:52

People are not willing to spend money

play04:53

demand is sluggish

play04:54

So government should borrow money and spend it

play04:56

to increase aggregate demand

play04:58

and prevent economic crisis

play04:59

Of course

play05:00

Keynes's theory was later disputed

play05:02

However

play05:02

Its core has been gradually accepted by governments across the globe

play05:04

When the economy faces a crisis or recession

play05:06

The government has to borrow and spend money vigorously

play05:08

Stimulate the economy

play05:09

Only in this way the economy can get out of crisis

play05:12

Did you notice that

play05:13

whenever there is a crisis

play05:14

the government will start spending money

play05:15

US 2008 subprime mortgage crisis

play05:17

2020 pandemic

play05:18

1998 Japan financial crisis

play05:19

2008 subprime mortgage crisis

play05:20

2011 earthquake

play05:21

Euro debt crisis

play05:23

Not sure if it is a coincidence

play05:24

but lately there are quite a lot of crises

play05:25

so governments accumulated large amount of debt

play05:28

But it doesn't mean that

play05:28

the money spent is useful

play05:30

For the past 30 years

play05:31

Japan has been borrowing money

play05:32

but their GDP

play05:34

is motionless

play05:37

What we said just now

play05:38

is the theoretical basis for government spending

play05:40

Let’s expand it a little

play05:41

Recently, this theoretical basis has been upgraded

play05:43

An economic theory that subverts

play05:44

previous theory became popular

play05:46

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

play05:49

The theory believes that

play05:49

Governments should be able to borrow freely

play05:52

Because the more the government spends,

play05:53

the more money the non-government side of the market makes

play05:55

The government's credit is essentially money

play05:57

As long as there is no inflation

play05:58

Then borrow and spend as much as you can

play06:00

This is the best for the economy

play06:01

Of course this theory

play06:03

is not yet accepted by mainstream economics

play06:04

but it really is very popular these days

play06:05

that’s why I mention it

play06:09

Alright, even if

play06:10

the government can borrow and spend money

play06:11

they can promote employment, stimulate economy

play06:13

Could they be borrowing and spending

play06:15

money endlessly

play06:16

This definitely doesn’t sound reasonable

play06:17

There must be a limit

play06:19

However the limit

play06:19

is definitely different for people like us

play06:21

Because government possess capability

play06:22

that we do not have

play06:24

and that is printing money

play06:25

Some might disagree

play06:26

Lin you’re wrong

play06:27

How could government print money

play06:28

Only central bank can print money, government can only borrow

play06:31

That’s right, theoretically that’s how it should be

play06:32

Most of the well-established systems

play06:34

also separates the government from the central bank.

play06:36

The government can't simply print money

play06:37

from the central bank and spend it

play06:39

But actually, there are ways

play06:41

the government can work around it

play06:44

The simplest one would be

play06:45

the central bank cannot print money and give it to government

play06:47

but it can buy government bond right

play06:49

Isn't this what Quantitative Easing does?

play06:50

play06:52

play06:53

Essentially it is government borrowing money from central bank

play06:56

This is actually the difference between domestic debt and foreign debt

play08:24

The one we mentioned

play08:25

A country's using bond issued locally

play08:27

is internal debt

play08:28

Maybe back in the days of using gold standard

play08:29

it is restrictive for government

play08:30

they wouldn’t dare to print money without limit

play08:32

But now

play08:32

it is easier for government to evade

play08:34

default by printing money

play08:35

Money borrowed overseas

play08:37

are usually debt denominated in USD

play08:38

and this is external debt

play08:40

No one can print money other than US

play08:41

If you really have a cash flow problem

play08:43

you can only borrow from others

play08:44

This is the time

play08:45

when it's very vulnerable to default

play08:47

If we say that

play08:47

internal debt is a buffer period for economic activities

play08:49

Then external debt

play08:50

is amplifier of economic activity

play08:52

It’s easy to understand

play08:53

because debt itself is leverage

play08:54

When the economy is good

play08:55

the capitals would all come to you

play08:56

then you can magnify your advantages

play08:57

then you can magnify your advantages

play08:58

but once there’s a problem

play08:59

and the capitals withdraw

play09:01

it’ll exacerbate the crash

play09:03

Actually throughout history

play09:05

many national level economic crash

play09:07

debt crises

play09:08

are mainly due to default on external debt

play09:09

In the 1970s and 1980s

play09:11

Latin America was growing fast

play09:12

and attracted a lot of external investment

play09:14

Two oil crises in the 1980s

play09:16

USD raised interest rates

play09:16

Latin America had to follow suit

play09:18

causing their debt grew further

play09:20

External debt was increasing

play09:21

In the end, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico

play09:23

all defaulted on their debt

play09:24

The American investors lost their money, too

play09:27

Euro debt crisis

play09:29

lasted for so long

play09:30

is because Eurozone

play09:32

in my opinion is a bit troublesome

play09:33

Before this, I’ve mentioned in

play09:35

Greece and Euro debt crises videos

play09:36

In the beginning these European countries

play09:37

all huddled together and

play09:38

created a central bank to print money

play09:40

but their fiscal policy is a separate business

play09:42

This is turning internal debt

play09:44

into external debt

play09:46

But Greece, Italy and Spain

play09:48

were facing a problem

play09:49

Their national debt is at risk of default

play09:50

European Central Bank

play09:52

can’t break the rule

play09:53

can’t break the rule

play09:54

right

play09:55

So they can only borrow money from others

play09:57

EU and IMF lent money to them

play09:59

but they are also forcing them to tighten up expenditure

play10:00

This caused further problems for these countries

play10:01

Their economy was already weak

play10:03

and now they had to tighten up

play10:04

This fiscal policy was supposed to be

play10:05

an economic regulator, but instead it

play10:07

increased economic fluctuations

play10:09

This is the problem with external debt

play10:12

1997 Asia Financial Crisis

play10:14

1998 Russia and Ukraine default

play10:16

2001 Argentina Financial Crisis

play10:17

including last year’s Sri Lanka

play10:18

The direct reason for their crash

play10:20

is because default on external debt

play10:22

This is why some people said internal debt isn’t debt

play10:24

Although this theory is a bit extreme

play10:25

internal debt is certainly a debt

play10:27

but it's much more controllable

play10:29

Governments can borrow more comfortably

play10:31

in an emergency without worrying

play10:33

about short-term defaults

play10:35

So looking from this point

play10:36

US has their particularity

play10:37

They don’t have to worry about internal or external debt

play10:39

for them it is all internal debt

play10:40

The dollar, of course, is another topic

play10:43

Alright just now we talked about

play10:44

the government borrows money differently than we do

play10:46

It's not money or the debt ceiling

play10:48

that restricts government borrowing

play10:49

So what exactly is restricting it?

play10:51

Lin dive deep and found that

play10:53

The biggest debt crises in history

play10:54

can be summed up in two ways

play10:57

First is interest rate

play10:59

Interest rates are at the heart of financial markets

play11:01

and national debt is the core of the interest rate

play11:02

because its price determines the risk-free rate

play11:04

You will find that bond issued by companies

play11:06

for example Microsoft, Amazon, Petrochina

play11:08

their interest rate is highly related

play11:10

to government bond rate

play11:11

because its pricing is determined by the interest rate of government bond

play11:13

If more government bonds are issued

play11:14

the supply will increase, the price will drop

play11:16

and the corresponding risk-free interest rate will rise

play11:18

Interest rates across the economy will rise accordingly

play11:20

The effect is almost the same as raising interest rates.

play11:22

What’s the effect of raising interest rates?

play11:23

I believe everyone would have some understanding on this

play11:24

and that is suppress consumption, suppress investment

play11:26

suppress economy, suppress everything

play11:30

Maybe it confuses you a bit

play11:31

Isn't the rate hike controlled by the central bank?

play11:33

how is it related to national debt again?

play11:34

We have talked about this in previous episode

play11:36

To put it simply

play11:37

Central banks control short-term interest rates

play11:39

National debt control long-term interest rates

play11:41

In addition to suppressing the economy

play11:43

the rise in interest rates has a more direct consequence for the government

play11:45

The cost of issuing debt

play11:46

simply goes up

play11:47

If they want to take new debt

play11:48

they’ll have to pay higher interest

play11:50

It’s like if you get into more car accidents

play11:51

then the insurance become more expensive

play11:52

Too much government debt raises interest rates

play11:55

If the rate is too high to a point

play11:56

that the tax received is insufficient to pay for interest

play11:57

how can they stimulates economy

play11:59

don’t bother think about it

play12:00

The government will become

play12:01

a fund that provides

play12:03

fixed income to global creditors

play12:04

They’ll get into a spiral of debt

play12:05

uncontrollable, borrow more and more

play12:07

This idea is

play12:07

not extreme at all

play12:09

For example, Japan's debt

play12:10

If the average government interest rates

play12:11

is as high as 5%

play12:12

Then all the government revenue

play12:14

is not enough to pay the interest.

play12:15

Of course, this is not the case in Japan.

play12:17

Although their debt is the highest in the world

play12:19

but their current fiscal revenue is only 11%

play12:21

they spent it mostly on interest rate

play12:22

For the past few years

play12:23

although they are borrowing more

play12:25

but the interest paid is less

play12:27

This is because government has a way

play12:28

to counter the rise of interest rate

play12:30

All the things we’ve talked about is slowly connecting

play12:32

This method is Quantitative Easing

play12:36

Since 2013, Japan has been

play12:38

following Abenomics

play12:39

and borrowing a lot to stimulate economy

play12:40

But he was worried about borrowing too much

play12:42

causing a rise in interest rates

play12:43

play12:43

The central bank is responsible for printing money to buy government bonds

play12:46

Once demand increase

play12:47

price increase, then the interest rate can be lowered

play12:49

It's better to get it down to almost zero

play12:51

After that, the government

play12:52

can borrow money comfortably

play12:54

without worrying interest rate hike

play12:55

Until 2020

play12:56

Japan government couldn’t be bothered to pretend

play12:58

They laid it all out

play12:59

They just want to do unlimited QE

play13:01

Their goal is in the open

play13:03

and that is to push down 10 years yield

play13:04

to below 0.25%

play13:06

After battling with capitals in the market

play13:08

it has been increased to 0.5%

play13:09

still there’s a limit

play13:11

After 2013

play13:12

Japan's central bank holdings of government bonds risen

play13:15

because the central bank continues to buy government bonds

play13:17

to push down interest rate

play13:18

This allow Japanese government

play13:19

to pay lesser interest

play13:21

despite borrowing more money

play13:23

Don't think that central banks are printing money

play13:25

purely to put a little more money in the economy

play13:27

It has a

play13:29

very important target

play13:30

and that is to lower long-term interest rate

play13:31

Not only in Japan, QE in US, Europe

play13:33

produced the same results

play13:34

Every time someone questions whether

play13:36

the U.S. Treasury is borrowing too much

play13:38

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

play13:39

will come out and say

play13:41

although we borrowed a lot

play13:42

but the interest rate is very low

play13:43

The interest rate we pay now

play13:44

is not as high as it was in the 90s

play13:45

The implication is that

play13:46

Borrowing is cheap and it helps stimulate the economy

play13:48

then why wouldn’t I borrow?

play13:50

So you see

play13:51

the first restriction on borrowing, interest rate

play13:53

can be lowered through

play13:54

cooperation between

play13:55

government and central bank

play13:56

But there’s no free meal in the world

play13:58

There is one restriction

play13:59

which the government cannot get around

play14:00

The one topic that concerns

play14:03

governments, central banks and economists

play14:04

and that is inflation

play14:07

We have published videos

play14:08

for these two topics respectively

play14:13

Inflation

play14:13

is the one matter that troubles many governments

play14:15

They can use money to pull demand

play14:16

They can use money to stimulate employment

play14:18

But when it comes to inflation, there’s not much they can do

play14:20

Other economic problems now seem trivial

play14:22

Central bank can no longer suppress interest rate artificially

play14:24

nor use smart-ass policy to curb

play14:26

Countless historical experiences have shown that

play14:27

the only solution is taking austerity measures

play14:31

This is akin to chemotherapy

play14:32

Kill all the cells

play14:34

both good and bad

play14:35

Cooling prices by suppressing the overall economy

play14:37

There are some governments who

play14:38

couldn’t go through with it

play14:40

so they continue to borrow and stimulate economy

play14:41

This risk them falling into hyperinflation

play14:43

Venezuela was in that position few years ago

play14:50

You must be wondering

play14:51

now that US inflation is so high

play14:52

why are they still increasing debt ceiling?

play14:54

This is because

play14:55

they have spent all the money, there’s no other way

play14:57

If the US government knew that

play14:58

the stimulation in 2021

play14:58

would bring such high inflation,

play15:00

The Fed raising interest rates frantically, and the global economy in recession

play15:02

they wouldn’t dare spending so much money

play15:04

Now that you have an understanding on the two restrictions

play15:05

now let’s take a look at how much bond issued

play15:06

is good for some countries

play15:08

or is considered normal

play15:09

As long as they don’t touch on these two restrictions

play15:11

Issuing bonds is about

play15:12

trade-off between

play15:14

growth and stability

play15:15

They can have different strategy

play15:16

or different style

play15:17

Some countries which are relatively stable

play15:18

like Denmark

play15:19

even though they have debt ceiling, but it’s not useful

play15:21

Debt to GDP ratio

play15:22

has been below 50%

play15:23

Countries like Sweden, Netherland, Switzerland

play15:25

are similar

play15:26

They don’t pursue high economic growth

play15:28

they do it step by step

play15:30

US and Japan are both pursuing rapid growth

play15:32

China has different system

play15:34

the central is quite stable

play15:36

but for local bond or municipal bond

play15:37

then there are more problems to that

play15:40

Anyway, no matter how much debt a country chooses to issue

play15:42

these two are the bottom lines

play15:43

If they issued too much causing a hike in interest rate

play15:45

or suppress economy or unable to repay

play15:46

or they issued too much until there’s a rise in inflation

play15:48

then there’s a risk of losing control

play15:49

At this time the government debt is definitely too high

play15:51

So the red line for debt

play15:52

is not an absolute number

play15:53

nor is it an absolute ratio to GDP

play15:55

It is based on

play15:56

the economic environment of the country

play15:57

If interest rate and inflation is low

play15:59

and people have confidence towards government

play16:00

Even if you keep borrowing

play16:02

and the number may seems too big

play16:03

but it could be nothing for the economy

play16:05

Before pandemic, that’s how it is for

play16:08

US, Japan and Europe

play16:09

Even if Japan’s debt is so high

play16:10

only the media would make some noise

play16:12

The financial market is still relatively stable

play16:14

but the environment is different now

play16:16

Let’s look at the interest rate on ten-year US Treasury bonds

play16:18

3 years ago was 0.6, now is 3.7

play16:20

Inflation is even higher

play16:21

3 years ago inflation was 0

play16:23

now is 4.9

play16:24

Not only US

play16:25

it’s similar in Japan and Europe

play16:26

So you see

play16:27

Japan's 260% debt ratio

play16:29

Two years ago it didn’t look so high

play16:30

but now it poses a problem

play16:34

If one day UK government realised that

play16:36

they issued too much government bond, inflation is rising

play16:38

the road is getting narrow

play16:39

What can they do?

play16:41

Then the choice will definitely not be so easy.

play16:43

There are three roads ahead

play16:46

First

play16:47

the more direct way

play16:49

austerity

play16:52

You borrow too much

play16:53

so spend less and borrow less

play16:54

Simple as that

play16:55

For example US government

play16:56

Often because the budget is not approved

play16:57

they had to shut down for few days or few weeks

play16:59

In 2009

play17:00

they shut down for the longest time in history

play17:01

35 days

play17:02

Across US, more than 800,000 civil servants

play17:04

had not been paid for more than a month

play17:05

This kind of small scale austerity

play17:07

can't solve the problem at all

play17:09

Large scale intense austerity will

play17:11

definitely bring an immediate hit to the economy.

play17:13

So governments need a lot of courage

play17:14

to implement this kind of policy

play17:16

They will also face strong resistance

play17:17

when implementing the policy

play17:18

800,000 people didn’t receive wages

play17:20

They wouldn’t take such drastic measure

play17:21

if they had not been forced to a certain degree

play17:23

Like Europe debt crisis

play17:25

Italy, Greece, Spain

play17:26

always these countries

play17:27

In 1997

play17:28

Asia Financial Crisis, Korea

play17:29

they all implemented very strict austerity policy

play17:32

to solve debt issue

play17:33

Do you think they have self-conscious?

play17:34

Of course not

play17:35

This is because they have external debt

play17:37

They had to borrow from IMF

play17:38

The creditors must have forced them to retrench

play17:42

In the face of debt problem

play17:44

there’s a second road

play17:45

This is more radical

play17:46

and that is by defaulting or debt restructuring

play17:51

Many of you may not be clear on

play17:52

what would happen when a country default

play17:54

Country default

play17:55

is not the same as how a company default

play17:56

not as disastrous

play17:57

selling off all your assets

play17:58

and dissolve immediately

play17:59

When government goes bankrupt

play18:00

investors can’t do much about it

play18:02

Over a century ago

play18:03

it was indeed solved by force

play18:05

When Venezuela went bankrupt in 1902

play18:07

the creditors, Germany, UK, Italy

play18:09

dispatched army and blew up the ports

play18:11

to force Venezuela to pay

play18:12

But now such thing will not happen

play18:14

Now when a government default

play18:16

the biggest consequences is decline in credit

play18:17

Then the cost of financing will be high

play18:19

and it will be hard to borrow money

play18:21

This is a serious case

play18:24

because now an economic body

play18:26

is based on credit

play18:27

The more advanced the economy, the more it depends on credit

play18:30

Once government default

play18:31

entire country’s credit market will crash

play18:33

play18:34

Everyone would avoid it

play18:35

Then the currency market will plummet

play18:37

They would take a really long time

play18:38

at least 8 to 10 years

play18:40

to slowly recover

play18:41

This shows how serious the blow is

play18:43

The US government predicted that

play18:44

defaulting on few interest rate terms

play18:45

would cause 8 million people lose their jobs

play18:46

However

play18:47

this doesn’t mean there won’t be a default on internal debt

play18:50

Lin counted that

play18:52

from 1980 to 2022

play18:53

In these 42 years

play18:54

There are a total of

play18:56

84 internal defaults around the world

play18:59

I counted it one by one

play19:01

What I found

play19:02

interesting is that

play19:03

Internal default for larger country is

play19:05

at the same time with external debt default

play19:08

For example, Russia in 1998

play19:09

Argentina in 2001

play19:10

Greece in 2012

play19:11

Their main problem

play19:12

is on external debt

play19:13

When the government see that

play19:14

they are defaulting on external debt

play19:15

their credit will definitely face a huge blow

play19:17

then might as well default on internal debt

play19:19

and won’t even have to pay back debt

play19:20

or print less money

play19:21

For the past 20 years, Argentina had

play19:23

bankrupted 3 times

play19:25

play19:27

play19:28

The two roads we mentioned, austerity and default

play19:30

are not common options

play19:32

Most government would take this route

play19:34

I think you know what it is

play19:35

that is drag it

play19:39

How do they drag it?

play19:40

Either by borrowing money to pay back old loan

play19:42

or simply print money

play19:44

or both at the same time

play19:45

Generally when government facing debt problem

play19:47

it’s when economy is sluggish

play19:47

accompanied by high inflation

play19:49

At this time if they

play19:50

spend money to stimulate

play19:52

for example stimulate EV industry

play19:53

and suddenly there’s a technology outburst

play19:55

that brings about improvement in productivity

play19:57

Then the economy will be expanded

play19:59

inflation will be digested by growth

play20:00

Government finances will stop going downhill

play20:02

The economic problem is thus easily traversed

play20:05

But of course

play20:07

the possibility of this is too low

play20:08

If they continue to borrow and print money

play20:10

the most probable outcome is it becoming worse

play20:11

If they keep dragging

play20:12

that is certainly irrational

play20:13

and unreasonable

play20:14

But this is what most countries

play20:16

choose to do when facing

play20:17

debt problem

play20:19

This doesn’t mean

play20:19

the government is procrastinating

play20:20

This is actually due to political system

play20:23

They are often elected by terms

play20:25

Even if economists and government official

play20:27

do not want to drag

play20:28

but the citizens don’t want to face austerity

play20:29

and they can’t stand government defaulting

play20:31

In these 3 solutions

play20:32

Only dragging is expansive

play20:35

It’s the least painful in short-term

play20:36

This kind of policy

play20:37

is definitely popular amongst the voters

play20:38

If you watched the episode on Greece

play20:41

you’d now how undependable voters are

play20:43

Did you realise

play20:43

a lot of the topics

play20:45

are now connected

play20:48

Today, on the topic of government debt

play20:50

we talked about US debt ceiling

play20:51

Why governments borrow money

play20:53

The difference between internal and external debt

play20:54

What are the factors limiting debt issuance

play20:56

What to do when issuing too much debt

play20:58

Quite hardcore right

play21:05

For this episode

play21:06

I spent a lot of time scripting

play21:08

not a lot of stories told

play21:09

with the hope of laying

play21:10

the framework down in one go

play21:11

and help all of you to understand

play21:13

more macro economics

play21:14

and fiscal policies of various countries

play21:15

To those of you who watched till now

play21:17

Let me give you a Like and hope you can give me one too!