AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future | Kai-Fu Lee

Summary

このビデオスクリプトでは、AIの未来に関する驚くべき本「AI 2041」について、著者のカイフ・リーとの熱い議論が繰り広げられます。スティーブ・オルリアンスがホストとして、カイフ・リーの創造的な思考と、AIが我々の未来にどのように影響を与えるかについての彼の洞察に光を当てています。AIのリアリスティックな応用から、その潜在的な危険、さらには国際協力の必要性に至るまで、幅広いトピックが探求されます。この対話は、AI技術の将来と、それが世界中の産業と社会に与える影響について、聴衆に深い洞察を提供します。

Takeaways

• 📘 カイフ・リーとチェンチョ・ファンが共著したAIに関する新書「AI 2041」についてスティーブ・オーリアンズが熱烈に推薦。
• 🤖 本書は、AIの現実的な応用とその社会的影響に関する科学フィクションの物語を通してAIを紹介している。
• 🌏 各物語は、今後20年間で実現可能なAI技術を取り上げ、世界中のさまざまな場所での展開を描いている。
• 🔬 カイフ・リーは、AI技術の解説を行い、それが現実的かどうかを評価している。
• 🚀 AI技術の応用範囲は広く、言語処理から量子コンピューティング、医薬品発見まで多岐にわたる。
• 🌐 米中関係において、AIの発展は両国間の協力と信頼を強化するための重要な分野とされている。
• 🤔 人工知能は日常の仕事に大きな変化をもたらし、多くのルーチンワークを自動化する可能性がある。
• 🛡️ 量子コンピューティングのような特定のAI技術分野は、国家安全保障と関連しているため、国際協力が限定される可能性がある。
• 📊 AIがもたらす労働市場への影響に対し、政府は適切な安全網の提供に取り組む必要がある。
• 👥 AIの利用により生じる可能性のある社会的不平等に対しては、適切な規制とデータの偏りを減らす努力が重要である。

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Outlines

00:00

📘「AI2041」の紹介とその影響

スティーブ・オーリンズ（米中関係全国委員会会長）が、カイフ・リーとの対話を通じて、彼とチャン・チョウファンが共著した「AI2041」について紹介します。この本は、AIに関連する10個のサイエンスフィクションストーリーを通じて、AIの将来のビジョンを探求しています。オーリンズは、物語を通じてメッセージを伝える手法を評価し、リーがこの本で実現したことを称賛しています。彼はまた、AIについての知識が乏しい自分でも、この本を通じてAIについて多くを学べたと述べています。

05:01

🤖AIの応用とその将来に関する議論

カイフ・リーは、AI技術の将来についての10のストーリーをどのように選んだか、そしてそれらが異なる産業にどのように適用され得るかについて語ります。彼は、自然言語処理から量子コンピューティング、薬物発見まで、約20の技術をカバーしたかったと述べ、これらの技術がエンターテイメント、ヘルスケア、仕事など、さまざまな分野にどのように応用されるかについて議論します。また、米中関係におけるAIの影響についても触れ、AIの発展と応用における米国と中国の役割について考察しています。

10:02

🌏AI技術の国際協力と競争

リーは、特定のAI技術分野での米中の協力と競争について語り、民間と軍事の両方での応用の可能性を探ります。彼はAIの民間用途における協力の重要性を強調し、一方で国家安全保障に関連する技術については協力が制限されるべきだと主張しています。また、量子コンピューティングのような特定の技術がいかに戦略的な重要性を持つかについても議論しています。

15:04

💡AIの誤用に対する懸念と対策

カイフ・リーは、AIの誤用、特に非国家行為者による潜在的な脅威について議論します。彼は、AI技術を使った自律型兵器が低コストで容易にアクセス可能になり、テロ行為の手段として使用され得ることを指摘します。このような脅威に対抗するためには、国際的な協力と規制が必要であると強調しています。

20:04

🚀AIの先進的応用と倫理的課題

「AI2041」のストーリーを通じて、リーはAI技術の先進的な応用とそれに伴う倫理的な課題について考察します。彼は、AIがもたらす可能性のあるポジティブな影響と、それによって引き起こされる可能性のあるリスクや問題点について議論し、AI技術の倫理的な使用を促します。

25:07

🌐AIの社会的影響と将来の展望

リーは、AIが労働市場に与える影響、特にルーチンワークの自動化とそれによる雇用の変化について語ります。彼は、AI技術が社会にもたらすポジティブな影響、例えば労働時間の削減や生産性の向上に焦点を当てつつ、これらの変化が人々に与える影響についても考察しています。

30:07

🔍AIによる自動運転の未来と規制の課題

カイフ・リーは、自動運転車が将来的に交通事故を大幅に減少させる可能性について説明します。彼は、AIによる自動運転技術の発展がもたらすメリットと、それに伴う規制や倫理的な課題について議論します。特に、技術が完全に成熟するまでの過渡期において、規制当局がどのように対応すべきかについての考察が含まれます。

Keywords

💡AI

AIまたは人工知能は、機械に知的な振る舞いをさせる技術です。ビデオはAIの可能性と限界について説明していると思います。

💡機械学習

機械学習は、AIの重要な一部であり、コンピュータに大量のデータから学習させることで機能します。ビデオはおそらく機械学習の応用について説明しているでしょう。

💡自律兵器

自律兵器はAIが制御する兵器のことでしょう。ビデオはその危険性について議論しているかもしれません。

Highlights

本のアイデアはAIを誰でも理解できるように平易な言葉で説明すること

SF作家が想像力を制限して現実的な話を書くことに同意した

自律兵器はテロリストによって悪用される可能性が高い

AIはバイアスを持つ可能性があるが、適切なデータセットを用いれば人間よりも公平である可能性がある

AIがルーティンな仕事の50%を置き換えると予測

AIがもたらす失業問題への対策が必要

AIがもたらす格差問題への対策が必要

翻訳者の需要は一時的に増加するが、最終的にはAIに置き換えられる

AIアシスタントが次第に主要な労働者となる

ヨーロッパはAI開発を制限しようとしている

商業AI分野では各国企業が競争・協調する

自律走行車両は最終的には人間の運転よりも安全

AIは偏見を持つ可能性があるが、適切なデータセットを用いれば人間よりも公平

ヨーロッパはAI開発を制限しようとしている

商業AI分野では各国企業が競争・協調

Transcripts

[Music]

okay well let us reward the people who

are prompt and the many

thousands of people who will view this

after we've done this program but i am

steve orleans president of the national

committee on u.s china relations and i'm

thrilled

absolutely thrilled to be joined by

kaifu lee my old friend

um and i'm even more thrilled to have

read this extraordinary book

a.i

10 visions for our future

2041

which kaifu and chancho fan have

written and recently translated into

english one of the great things about my

job is i get to read books by friends

and colleagues

and this one was really a pleasure i

blew more than a pleasure it was

absolutely enthralling

um

more

you know at the national committee what

we often try to do is find ways to

educate people and what i'm frequently

telling

my colleagues chinese officials american

officials is you educate through story

that you tell a story that delivers a

message and then you explain the message

that it's really a terrific political

technique on how to educate

and what kaipu has done with this book

is

and with

uh mr chun

who wrote the

fiction part of it and kai who wrote the

non-fiction part of it is tell these

absolutely compelling

science science fiction stories related

to a.i

and then kaifu explains is this

realistic is this not realistic um how

does it work it it's you know i loved ai

superpowers his former book his his late

his last book which was on the new york

bestseller the new york times

bestsellers list uh but this one is

really compelling if anyone on this

has not read it yet

read it it is truly a

wonderful experience one

which for me who doesn't know much about

ai it really educated me about ai and

what we should think about looking into

the future so i've always been an

admirer of kaifu now even more so even

more so i won't go over you know he's

currently we won't go over his bio

because we talked about all the awards

and all the things

that he has done we wouldn't have time

uh for the program but he is the ceo of

sinovent

synovation ventures

um and as everybody knows his story from

ai uh super powers started out at

carnegie mellon was it google microsoft

other companies and then started

cynovase which invests in startup

companies so kaifu

um i've given a big pitch for the book

this is this is the cover

um

tell me it was so imaginative how did

you come up

with the idea

of kind of combining

fiction

with ai

analysis well thank you steve uh for for

having me on this uh uh webinar

uh the idea is that i i believe is

incredibly important for everyone to

understand what ai is and is capable of

and its potential dangers and how to fix

them and and yet many people find ai

intimidating because it seems like as a

rocket science but but it really isn't

so i tried to explain it in plain

language in ai superpowers i think i had

some limited success and people told me

they and they thought they understood

some of ai actually with me explaining

it

in a non-fiction

but then still people were intimidated

so i thought well the only way to get

people to truly understand ai

is through

entertaining and engaging

storytelling which i personally cannot

do so i reached out to my friend um chen

chilfan also known as stanley chen

to ask if he would write the stories and

and he uh kindly agreed uh it is rather

uh unusual that a science fiction writer

who's used to

let the imagination run wild

was willing to constrain his imagination

to what i paint as feasible

and unfeasible and only write about

what's feasible in the next 20 years but

he's done an amazing job and hopefully

the book delivers the engaging

aspect and draws people in who otherwise

might find ai to be intimidating and and

who might have been misinformed about ai

who can now get hopefully the right

picture and after each story

i give an explanation of the technology

what the canon cannot do the problems it

might introduce on society and how we

might deal with it so that's how it came

about and how did you arrive at the ten

stories and you know the different

kind of aspects of ai that must have

been difficult because you could think

about five thousand

yeah

it was um it was a puzzle we're putting

together a puzzle i wanted about 20

technologies covered from natural

language processing to quantum computing

um to

drug discovery i wanted about 20

technologies covered and

i wanted to see them covered from easy

to hard and i wanted to see them covered

applied to different industries like

entertainment

communications healthcare

and

work uh and uh etc so so that was my

puzzle and then stanley introduced

another puzzle he wanted to

have 10 stories take place in 10

different parts of the world

uh partly to make the stories more

interesting and partly to show that this

will impact all countries and all

industries so we mix these four puzzles

together and then we brainstorm possible

uh story lines and then um uh and then

he went off and and wrote the stories

and then i wrote the commentary that's

how the puzzle came together we didn't

quite cover every technology there were

a few

we wish we could get in but the puzzle

just didn't didn't fit

now it's because we're the national

committee on u.s china relations um and

our audience are basically people who

are looking at the u.s china

relationship what is the book

what is the message the book conveys

about u.s china relations

uh this book isn't in particular about

u.s china but it paints a world in which

we really need to work closely together

under more not less globalism with more

not less trust between countries because

our fates is very linked

for example

autonomous weapons can only be

regulated with uh cooperation from

countries

and

many of the governance ideas

can can become universal if people come

to a common understanding

and and also

technology advances were driven by china

and u.s

and

the scientists ought to work together

fortunately they still do so those are

some things one could read through the

stories

um and and also

uh in some of the background it is

clearly still portraying that

technologies coming from u.s and china

are the two most significant

technology superpowers that will

continue in 20 years so these are the

subtle aspects one could find in the

book but it's really not prominent

which areas

should the united states and china with

respect to aib cooperating which ones

should cooperation be limited and which

ones can we really not cooperate on i

mean i hear discussions in washington

that quantum computing is just we should

not really be cooperating in that

because it can be there's too many uh

there's too much military applicability

there so how do you kind of divide those

areas

right

um i i think

ai as a general omnius technology deep

learning extensions uh

including uh

some of the more recent advances beyond

deep learning are pretty universal they

the the papers are published even with

source code and data

and

the chinese european american scientists

are already working together and then

the technologies are already applied to

industries so um so i think that is uh

the the horse has left the barn and and

it's becoming omni use applied to

industries uh more cooperation i think i

think would be very suitable

there are obviously

civilian and non-civilian applications

but the cooperation on civilian which is

a much larger part i think canon should

go on

specifically

the use of ai in climate in uh

healthcare ought to be less

controversial and potentially uh the use

for uh profit making for for for use in

financial industries and other

industries i think could also span

multiple countries

uh i think both countries will assert

that

on technologies that

relate to national

security or defense that's an area where

each country should develop its own and

probably uh you know europe and russia

will also want to develop their own

and um i think

autonomous weapons the development of

that um should either be should i think

will happen independently but they

should be regulated working together

and i think quantum computing i can see

the logic of why

having a quantum supremacy is important

to many countries and

because i think quantum computing uh

basically changes the paradigm of

computing and makes possible

things like breaking computer security

figuring out uh extremely fast

communications uh completely disrupting

the type of every algorithm from ai and

and

and so on so i i think i can see

uh countries wanting to be

superior in quantum and and it's not a

technology that i think people are

inclined to work together with other

companies companies are doing it

and i think each company and probably

each country views it as an expensive

endeavor that would give it an advantage

in a disruptive future direction so i

think i i would understand understand

that one

and there are probably other

basically the question i think is if

it's really legitimately related to

national defense

uh and security i think it's

understandable that cooperation be

limited everything else i would hope for

more cooperation

aren't we seeing

[Music]

both governments

if i agree with you i'm a hundred

percent in agreement with you we should

find ways to cooperate but aren't we

seeing both governments actually move in

the opposite direction more restrictions

on data

blocking of

chinese acquisitions of companies in the

united states that have access or

are a a bank for health care data for

individuals data

dating apps um

you know obviously the the

you know dd

you know having certain data and that

actually the walls

rather than getting lower

are getting higher what i've always

argued for is defining national security

narrowly and building those walls very

high but for the other things don't have

walls at all

yeah i agree with you

uh i think if we trace back on how this

began

i think it was under president trump

that went after a number of these

aspects

i don't want i don't i'm not an expert

on which of the policies are legitimate

which are questionable but i think

uh china's i think the chinese

government's preference would have been

to continue globalism china clearly has

been a beneficiary and cannot contribute

but

i think seeing some of these

companies that have been put on entities

list with export control cepheus and the

frequency and the degree of the

application of these um

measures are making china feel that it

needs to be self-sufficient in

technologies otherwise

every company could follow the path of

huawei of being

limited in its access to necessary uh

infrastructural technologies so yes in

recently china has been

extending its regulation too it is kind

of a

symmetrical escalation which is

unfortunate and i hope there will be

some de-escalation otherwise this will

probably get worse not better

yeah

the national committee runs what are

called track two dialogues and one of

them is actually on the digital economy

and our hope is to be able to propose to

both governments some rules of the road

where we don't have this continuing

expansion of restrictions because

ultimately these expansions of

restrictions take the dream of ai and

the good things that it can do and it

impedes the realization of that dream

you know i know the book's not about u.s

china relations but the chapter it was

interesting the chapter on um a quantum

genocide which was you know riveting i

mean i i was late for an appointment

because i was reading

it was the fiction part not the

analytical part

but

it's about it's about rogue actors

and

is it fair to say the greatest threat

of the misuse of ai is actually not from

state actors but from rogue non-state

actors

uh

i it's hard to say which is

larger but uh yeah i would i would tend

to agree

uh because that's the difference with

let's say nuclear weapons

while that's incredibly

dangerous it is only a few countries

that have it and they can hopefully

negotiate treaties and regulations and

and control themselves and

due to deterrence and

some degree of trust etc

because states i think generally

speaking are much more trustworthy than

than non-state actors so the big danger

for autonomous weapons is that the cost

of building one can be very low like a

thousand dollars

equip equipping a

drone with facial recognition and gps

and uh and a little bit of dynamite then

it becomes an assassination machine that

flies a very fast speed very small very

difficult to catch and shoot someone

point blank

and and the other danger is that the

terrorists do not have to sacrifice

their lives unlike the uh the the

suicide bombers who do so this lowers

the barrier the cost is lower and also

one could a terrorist group can send a

swarm of these

so so i think that slowers the cost of

terrorism

and increases their

uh

lethality so i i do think it is much

more dangerous and in fact i'm

i think i think any day now we're going

to see some such activities and

people are in

countries actually generally not taking

this seriously enough and it's going to

take another autonomous weapon terrorist

group 9-1-1 like event that i think will

wake everyone up

yeah

how realistic by the is is the

quantum genocide

kind of

fiction part you know where this

effectively a mad scientist you know

whose life has been ruined

you know kind of takes over

uh i i think it's higher than ever

before

because you know with unabomber is the

the the characters was built on

unabomber but unabomber is um

deranged but and and smart but but not a

deep scientist so so nowadays many more

people have access to these ai

technologies and the drone technologies

and and can program them

uh so i think that is more realistic

than ever more dangerous than ever the

part about that that

character uh becoming the first person

to invent the quantum computer and uses

the quantum computer to do bad things

that's much more speculative

obviously it's really the national

laboratories and the ibms and googles

that really are likely to make the big

break in quantum

and and and those large companies and

large national laboratories are not very

likely to have such a deranged person at

the top

yeah

you know um

i think it was trump used to joke he

said we don't know if this is a state or

a fat guy sitting in the in the basement

who's hacking into stuff and trying to

do all this so the question you know

how

do you need states to be behind this or

is it possible for kind of

literally the mad scientist to you know

use ai to accomplish very nefarious

objectives

i i think the mad scientist can do it

and depends on what bad things are being

done

if it's really to build a small number

of killer drones or slaughter bots i

think even uh even an advanced hobbyist

could build that don't you really need a

deep scientist

so

so that's why i think the danger is

becoming greater and greater because the

barrier to building ai

is lower and lower more and more people

every year

can program ai and do good things and

also do bad things

yeah

you know it was interesting as i was

reading the book um you know there were

two

major incidents involving ai

one was

the alleged assassination by israel

of the leading nuclear scientist the

person trying to create a nuclear weapon

in iran

who apparently a uh

a machine gun was placed which was

operated fully by ai

and the other was the sad

action by the united states to have a

drone strike on a car

where the intelligence apparently

was faulty

one of those are we very close to to

kind of what you know you say 2041 but

is it this is 202 one

sounds like you're getting pretty close

i think we're pretty close

there's also i think then attempted

assassination on the venezuelan

presidents and also the alleged strike

on the saudi oil fields by

iran

and all of those

half drones playing a role there are two

types of drones

in most of these cases

very sturdy

military-grade drones were used and

those are very high expensive and still

out of reach by terrorists because

they're not acquirable commercially but

i think the venezuelan president

assassination i think that was using

more of a standard hobbyist drone i i'm

not certain but

but those can be equally lethal today so

i i do think in the next

three years we will see

these killer drones uh do something

terrible and

and then we'll wake up and start reading

all these papers that various people

wrote the part my book

autonomous weapon the section was

excerpted and and published in the

atlantic

and there are other people who have

written

a thousand several thousand ai

scientists uh along with the late

stephen hawking elon musk have written a

plea that

that government should look at the

regulation or perhaps spanning of

autonomous weapons but it's all fallen

on deaf ears and

and i'm afraid it's going to take a a

terrible uh um

atrocity that will uh wake people up

what is the widespread use of 5g going

to affect this

oh

certainly communications is

a an important element for any

misuse of ai technologies

um

right uh yeah of course positive and

negative uh that the drones wouldn't be

able to operate

if they couldn't use the gps element for

example and the 5g

but that's already i think a um

a reality it is the way it is yeah so

and i think going on to 6g

it will even enable other types of

things

um

i saw and when i was

watching a demonstration of 5g

um

[Music]

i was in shanghai and they they showed

um

a

mechanical arm mining rare roof

i think in guijo or something something

where

[Music]

years ago

um

miners would have died

now it's just a machine and they can lit

and they obviously you know it's a

thousand miles 1500 kilometers and they

could sit there and the 5g was so

perfect

that they could mine

them operate accordingly i mean isn't

and that's obviously all ai and a

combination of ai and 5g it was it was

one of the most

you know it really brought home to me

the lives that could be saved

by ai

uh yeah absolutely in a dangerous

situations in mines or

accidents or fires

robotic technologies can be life-saving

and the way robotic technologies are

likely to develop is first in

extreme conditions where people are

willing to pay a very high price such as

these

and then moving into the factories and

then within factories there will be

smart forklifts smart

autonomous vehicles smart arms that can

grasp any object and then that will be

refined by use at the high price

paid by the manufacturing companies to

basically

replace routine work by people

and then the technology will become

cheaper than adopted in the camera in

commercial in commercial applications

like restaurants and malls and then it

will come to our homes and become great

household helpers so so that's something

we can look at a 20-year horizon and and

see pretty much all of the routine human

labor will be doable by um by robots and

i think that will be one of the big

advances and it will free up a lot of

our time so the the positive benefits

are are definitely much larger

yeah

now in the holy driver

um you know you talk about you know

autonomous vehicles and you know the use

of ai and it's this i mean i want to

ruin the ending you know how how lives

could be saved this way but you also

then in the analytical part you talk

about

uh are people

will the regulatory apparatus be willing

to deal with

the general

savings of life so you will have the

data will show we save lives but there

will be an instance or two or five or

ten where someone dies as a result how

does that get resolved

and is that something where china is

able to look

at the broader data

whereas

democracies

can't

it's possible um yeah the specific

issue that steve you were talking about

is ai gets better with data so

if you allow an autonomous vehicle to

launch

and it will

certainly make mistakes but maybe we

don't allow to launch unless it drives

roughly as well as people maybe a little

better i think that is feasible then it

will gather more data

and then in another month a new software

will be sent to all the vehicles and

then it will drive better much better

than people and and then in a year five

years ten years uh it will become so

much better

at driving than people because it's seen

you know billions of miles and no human

has ever seen that

uh and it's it's a honed to a perfect

driving capability also the autonomous

vehicles can talk to each other and just

miss each other by an inch and humans

cannot have that precision

and also

a autonomous vehicle that might be

having trouble like a blown tire can

broadcast to nearby cars to stay away

from me and humans can't respond in that

kind of a split second uh

accident or issue

so uh it's very clear that uh in let's

say given 10 years from launch to 10

years autonomous vehicles ought to save

90 percent

of the lives lost on the road today this

is this is a scientifically estimated

projection by mckenzie so the question

is what if

we launch it

and it's uh yet many people die because

of it uh not more people died than human

drivers are we willing to say we'll

launch the product when it's as good as

human

uh

and the autonomous vehicle will make

mistakes uh there will be people who get

hit and who die uh not worse than people

but different people

and then over

time it gets better

is that the price we're willing to pay

so i think different people and

different governments will thrill

differently

and and we'll see how that plays out but

uh i would bet many countries perhaps

including china would feel at a ten-year

horizon that's a good thing and at no

given moment in time is it worse than

people then it's something we could look

into one could also extrapolate on

robotic surgeries on doctors who

diagnose patients

similar issues with human lives will be

involved

so so i think we should go in with our

eyes open and have the intellectual

debate now

ai

is going to make fewer mistakes

an ai radiologist is going to make fewer

mistakes than the best radiologist in

the world

because

the best radiologist maybe he's seen a

hundred thousand but the ai has seen

a hundred million

right so they will simply make fewer

mistakes so and so no one should suffer

from that

transition

to

mediology

i i don't know i don't know because the

problem is when ai makes the mistakes

many of those mistakes look silly to

people and actually look ridiculous

and and it could be viewed as uh

irresponsible how could you launch a

product like that that is so pretty

immature for example when tesla

for the first tesla accident that killed

the driver using autopilot the tesla saw

a giant white truck

and the reflections as sky and it drove

right into the truck i would say

probably no human driver would ever make

that mistake and people are shocked and

angry that how could tesla launch such a

ridiculous product but if you look at

the track record of autopilot it's

actually driven

safer than people in terms of total

fatalities but when it makes a mistake

it's a ridiculous unforgivable mistake

that i think is the dilemma i will be

facing wow that's that that is uh

that is fascinating that that is that is

fascinating um

you've talked about kind of the the and

the book talks about this in various

places that you know and especially in

the chapter on plenitude so ai is able

to kind of reduce the amount of time we

need to do things things are able to be

produced less expensively so they're

more broadly distributed money becomes

less

less important

two questions on that one is china is

confronting

um a demographic challenge which we talk

about a lot of the at the national

committee its workforce has already

peaked it's reducing its population is

on the verge of peaking is ai going to

solve that problem for china

uh the problem of population not growing

or the population

yeah population not growing you know

generally population not growing would

lead to reductions in gdp that

population growth is generally one of

the ways that pdp will grow

right right

i'm probably somewhat contrarian on this

view so i'll answer it but i would say

many people would disagree with me

i feel with

aiona robotics taking over so much

routine work

countries that grow too much in

population may not see

the historical

correlation with

gdp growth anymore

and in in that case

countries like india may be facing more

of a challenge than countries like china

in terms of the population growth uh

there are obviously a lot of smart

people who disagree on that so we'll

have to see how it plays out in my

opinion

if we believe ai over the next 20 years

will displace 50 percent of human

human work which is routine

and that means there will be a large job

rotation huge issue with

redistributing income to the people who

lost their jobs and a big problem in

terms of retraining people for skills

that

are not easily replaced by ai and the

individual is capable of being trained

and learning that new skill

i think that is a a set of challenges i

feel would be of a highest priority

we're seeing the very beginnings of that

not enough sign to worry any

governments or politicians yet but i

think it it may get worse especially as

covid um

is is we get out of covid yet

companies may not be hiring people back

and maybe using automation

we might see a a jump but but that's

something i'm i believe i believe will

happen one day and uh but we have to see

the data to to uh to validate that

yeah certainly in the healthcare sector

we're using much more robotics

uh much more intelli you know

telemedicine that we've seen a shift

which i would have thought probably

would have taken 20 years has occurred

in 18 months

and and there's no question it will also

reduce

reduce employment and in in

in your chapter and plenitude you talk

about

the need to retrain

people right you know and government

taking over that responsibility the um

you have this window also in plenitude

you talk about moolah

which is

the new money which you you collect by

doing good deeds

um

so two questions one

does this kind of does this in your mind

stem from china's social credit system

that is beginning to

take hold in china you know that people

if they don't visit their parents they

they lose credit you know if they

jaywalk they lose credit but if they do

good things for science society they

gain credit so is that related and then

the second kind of subsidiary question

is

is china's central bank digital currency

some step in that direction making all

current you know getting rid of paper

money

uh

actually those were not my inspirations

uh the the social credit system and the

central bank system uh but clear the the

reason i decided to put that in the

story it's a very speculative direction

of course i can't

prove that is the direction we must go

it's more motivated by my belief that

work for economic gains

will

become more diminished that is we if we

only had human jobs and professions

for

for for for work that will have an

economic benefit to the society we won't

have enough jobs for everyone because ai

will have taken over so much of it

uh and and yet if we think about what

humans can do that ai cannot do

uh obviously there's creativity there's

you know your job my job the ceo's job m

a expert's job scientist job yes there

are those but this is a small percentage

what is the large

number of

existing

lower middle class people going to do

when ai takes over all the routine job

so my thoughts that i began to express

in ai superpowers that went into ai

2041 is that

it is really service jobs that will not

be replaceable by ai because the human

connection required because as as

everything becomes cheaper people want

to pay a premium for services for a

wonderful masseuse for a great concierge

for

for a tour guide and for health care

services and some of the health care

services are not necessarily you know

economic requirements that is in elderly

care elderly companion

someone to take an elderly person to see

a doctor

or foster home volunteer hotline

volunteer

someone who decides to

to homeschool their children these are

all activities worth compensating people

for

worth calling jobs if you will yet they

don't really contribute much

economically to society but it gives

people something meaningful to do

these jobs are create positive social

energy it gives people a sense of

satisfaction having helped seeing a

smile from the elderly person they uh

spend time with so there should be

encouragement of this type of

human to human connection service type

of services

so it was with this thought in mind that

i thought um

instead of just encouraging people with

a pay they should be encouraged with

some kind of um

digital system that measures their

contributions socially so it was

inspired by this not not the other

factors

the um you know it's interesting i mean

some

you know you say tour guides

i would say tour guides have to some

degree already been replaced by a very

simplified ai so once upon a time you

need somebody to walk you around a

museum

now you simply put on earphones

and when you get to a particular place

the

museum talks to you with what the tour

guide formally said

very simple kind of ai

yes yes but i think there's also room

for a storyteller if tour guide tour

guys should compete against that by

being a brilliant storyteller

incorporating personal experience fun

anecdotes things that are very personal

and connect human to human

um there are still many of those

turquoise i hope i hope that could

emerge to be uh sufficiently competitive

um

yeah

they're also you know like a chef and a

waiter you know we're investors uh in

china and there are a lot of companies

coming up with robotics chefs and

robotic waiters and waitresses and and

they're very effective very cost

effective i think they will populate uh

to middle or lower end restaurants you

know maybe like equivalent of denny's in

the u.s higher than mcdonald's but not a

not a high-end restaurant but then that

i think accentuates the value when you

go to a a top restaurant a michelin

restaurant or maybe something less

expensive but still a fancy restaurant

people will treasure even more the human

service that's provided so i think a lot

of things will become multi-tiered at

the top will be the human

service providers curators and people

who deliver an amazing experience and on

the bottom will be uh robots taking over

the jobs

i was in i mean it was a lien yeah it

was a uh whatever the unshort band is it

was a a chain restaurant but it was a

main focus restaurant

you pressed what you wanted

and you made your order and then i

expected the robot to bring the food out

but then a person brought the food out

so their ai was rather imperfect um i

mean their robotics were isn't perfect

you know somebody this gets to a

question someone has asked which is leo

from beijing language and culture

university

she thinks ai has its limits for example

this is an interesting question no

matter how advanced ai technologies are

professional translators and

interpreters are still needed

are we exaggerating the potential of ai

by thinking that those jobs

will get eliminated

uh the highest gen well it goes back to

the concierge and uh the chef and the

waiter uh the same will happen with

translators

uh the very high-end super you know if

you translate for the president of a

country or a president of a large

fortune 500 company that is unlikely to

be taken over by ai in the next 20 years

because mistakes are extremely costly

and there's a lot of subtlety but

business translation is rapidly being

taken over by

semi-autonomous methods i'll describe to

you what is happening today so we're

investors in two companies uh one called

the transient the other is called lane

boat and the two of them are working

together one is on a domain specific

high quality text translation the other

is building a tool for translators and

the tool still has people using the

tools the people has the final say on

what the translation looks like but the

ai does the first pass and we're seeing

ai improving very rapidly by 12 just in

the last year so that means 12 more of

the translations don't have to be

touched by the human anymore

and and we're seeing the overall

productivity of the translator pool go

up significantly costs come down

significantly because ai is doing more

and more and more of course the

translators feel very empowered because

ai is doing all the routine basic

translation and the translator gets to

tweak a little here and little there but

what they don't see is the amount of

reliance

on their human capacity is coming down

over time so we're actually in a very

strange time in history right now

because

i i know you as the person who asked the

question is is probably looking at the

boom in the human translator space i i

do believe in the past year there are

more people who get paid by more

translator jobs as a result of more

people using machine translation and not

happy with the result and hiring a human

to fix it but this boom is a transient

thing and as technology gets better with

more data the human reliance and

requirement for human will come down

it's very much similar to uh

bank tellers and atms when when atms

first came out it drew people to the

bank they had to hire more tellers but

eventually atm became more and more

powerful and tellers had to be moved to

other jobs so i would be quite confident

that in a 10 to 20 year horizon the

number of professional translators will

come down significantly even

dramatically and the ones who remain are

going to be the ones who are so good at

it they're like instantaneous voice

translator or extremely high quality no

mistake tolerated kind of jobs

why is your former employer's uh

translation function so mediocre

i i i talk when i use it i'm just

shocked at

because they should have data

more data than they possibly

can analyze to make their translations

more accurate what's going on

i don't think they put the state of the

art the state of the art requires um a

lot more compute power and the number of

users who use it and also they make no

money from the product so they put a

older version but even then if you look

at the quality of the product five years

ago ten years ago there's been big

advances and also in the last just in

the last two years there's a huge um

advancement almost a breakthrough

called

self-supervised learning and and if you

probably know it by gpt 3 or transformer

or birds these are the

technologies coming out of

google microsoft and openai

that allows

essentially you know trillions of data

to be used for training a super smart

natural language engine on top of which

you can build machine translation and

specif and and also

targeted for specific industries like

electronics or

finance and we are seeing big jump in

performance so

you i i would be very comfortable

predicting that in five years

we will have speech recognition

dramatically better than they were today

even though they're pretty good already

will have machine translation

both

text to text but also a simultaneous

voice to voice translation so that you

can go to a foreign country with your

sets and um have a decent conversation

with someone with some mistakes but a

decent um fluid conversation it will

jump it will jump in the next five years

that will be i mean certainly the voice

recognition

is already

you know 99.99

when i give speeches in china

yeah you know i i see on the sides they

have

you know a transcription going on if

people don't understand my chinese or my

english so

it's pretty good it's pretty good it's

very distracting for the speaker

um yes

i mean are jobs

you know

partly because i come from wall street

and started out doing credit analysis is

that kind of job

just going to disappear it's all going

to be done

by ai because ai

is going to be better at judging the

borrower

with all the data that they have and all

the data that they're able to sweep in

through ali and 10 cent and in the

future for the digital currency that

those jobs are going to basically

disappear

uh

yes i think all routine jobs are going

to be gone and there are some jobs that

you would not think are routine

they're going to be gone too

for example a radiologist's job one

would not think that's routine

a translator's job one would not think

that's routine but it's all about data

huge amounts of data

fed through to a mathematical

quantitative algorithm and the

improvements are just very dramatic and

the way that jobs will be displaced will

be first ai will come out as an

assistant radiologist assistant

translators assistant doctors assistant

for diagnosis then they will become

quite good doing more decisions

autonomously then one day will come when

the professional will feel wow the ai is

better than me i don't dare override its

decision anymore and then it's going to

flip and take over more jobs i think

people really have to be

prepared for that we are seeing the

writing on the wall as you were

describing speech recognition i worked

on speech recognition

in the 80s and it barely worked back

then if you draw a curve of improvement

it goes like this especially it actually

goes like this in the more last 10 years

big jump due to deep learning and its

descendants so we really

should become prepared for domains in

which ai will emerge as an assistant and

actually evolve into the main

worker

the chapter on that you call golden

elephant kind of

highlights potential inequalities in the

use of ai you know with

i mean it's so

it's so smart it's so interesting

because it you know talks about

insurance and how if you do one thing

you're you know given you've consented

to kind of be followed and have

everything you do be monitored your

insurance premium would jump up or drop

down which was which was i think just

wonderfully interesting i was going to

ask my insurance my friends who

insurance companies if they're moving in

that direction um but my question is how

do we deal

with the systemic you know the potential

systemic inequality in ai

uh yeah today i think the inequality in

ai is quite a serious matter and people

have to work on it uh fortunately i

think we can make a big improvement in

the short term

uh we've probably read about uh you know

a large american company trained this hr

ai using more men than a lot more men

than women and it ended up being very

biased against

letting women pass the screen and that

kind of error in the imbalance of data

that you expose to an ai system so much

of one gender or race or whatever and so

little of others will cause ai systems

to be biased and those can be caught by

automatic tools that will alert the ai

programmer saying you should not launch

this because it will have this kind of

an impact so i think we can catch you

know 80 90 percent of the most obvious

of of the problems because they're

pretty obvious mistakes we should also

train ai engineers to be conscientious

that they're not just trying to build a

tool make money but rather

they're they're going to impact people's

lives so i think we can keep that under

control but there are a lot of

subtleties that are very hard

the golden elephant was particularly

written that way

there you have a

well-intended benevolent insurance

company meaning to help people reduce

their insurance premium which ought to

be correlated with them not getting sick

as often seems like everybody wins but

yet still terrible things happen so it

is pointing out there are extreme cases

and a lot more research needs to be done

we can capture them obvious cases and

make it work much better but the extreme

cases require a lot more work

i would close on this question by saying

if we captured if we do a really good

job on the big mistakes i think we will

reach a point that ai will be already

less biased than people uh we we don't

recognize how biased we are

um

think think about a um some a loan

officer at the bank if you ask them well

why did you turn down that

person's loan you know they'll usually

give you a a

a legitimate reason

insufficient income

uh

two new at the job or something but

buried in that person's um

subconsciousness is a lot of bias and

prejudice uh you know

things like

the person doesn't look trustworthy or i

don't trust you know men or women or

whatever

that kind of thing does does come

through and ai will we can do such a

good job by honing the right data set

eliminating biases in the data as much

as we can so that ai can and will do

better than people another example with

people is there were there's a study in

israel that showed that judges were gave

harsher sentences just before lunch just

because they were hungry so it's not

even caused by prejudice they're just

i'm hungry i'm going to be mean so so i

think ai can and will do better and and

this doesn't mean

we shouldn't work on it we should work

very hard on it to make ai as fair

unbiased as possible but we should not

look at it and say well it's so much

worse than people because uh

you know we're all people we can

think about you know are we really

unbiased i think we actually are quite

poor and ai should be a blessing if we

do a good job

of course the data will tell us whether

there's a correlation between potential

bias and and outcomes

and then hopefully the person who's then

creating

you know the programs can kind of

get the get the bias out of the of the

uh

the ai

we can get a lot of it out you can

actually go further if let's say

uh racial bias is your biggest concern

then just remove um race out of the data

then it won't be pivoting on that column

of saying okay i'll treat the chinese

worse and treat the you know filipino

better or something like that but but i

would also caution that even if you take

that one out there are probably other

ways to infer race by you know the la

the surname and right place they live

they live in chinatown they're probably

chinese so

you probably have to remove a fair

amount of data to remove most of the

inferible racial elements but if that's

really important to the ai you want to

build

then remove remove all of that yeah

i want to make sure i get to some

audience questions before we close um

morgan pierce from csis asks

experts for predicting that ai will

displace many blue-collar workers as you

said uh what's the chinese government

doing to provide a safety net for those

who are going to be impacted

yeah uh we are not seeing

much action by any government right now

on this ai displacement issue

because i think most of the

displacements are absorbed in the

employment process that is you know

people lose their jobs then they go on

and find something else so we haven't

reached a point where large numbers of

displacements are causing the government

to have to step in you know on the you

know on the u.s side i think covet has

made unemployment numbers not so

dependable so uh despite efforts you

know you know like andrew yang he speaks

up about the need for universal basic

income due to ai displacement but you

know one percent of u.s listens to him

so he's getting some voice but the

government hasn't really seen it

necessary to come up with any policies i

would say

china is not looking at the terrible

unemployment number and i would say

generally speaking when governments are

not seeing bad unemployment numbers

they're not likely to proactively deal

with this

humo

from his law firm i asked since china is

the leading country in development and

implementation of ai what's the

implication for the u.s and europe in

light of the open competition and

potential conflict with china in the

years ahead

well commercial ai is not really a

conflict between countries uh you know

tencent alibaba google amazon can can

all be successful

they'll have different products

different geographies so i i think on

the commercial aspect i would anticipate

you american companies to be really

successful um probably more so in

enterprise software space like c3ai and

palantir and the like uh chinese

companies will probably see more

robots and automation because of the

manufacturing prowess

and i think both countries will do well

europe i think will not be able to

emerge as a giant in ai

partly because um i think the eu wants

to limit ai because of their concerns

about personal data and um and their

concerns about um

internet companies having too much power

and also eu is not really one language

one culture entity so a ai company will

have a harder time penetrate all of eu

whereas the chinese or american

companies would not have that problem

it's a cohesive

single language single culture large

market so u.s china continue will

continue to be ai superpowers as i

predicted in my last book

and that's why europe developed this

gdpr which is replete with problems and

makes kind of development of ai and

collection of data which would enhance

ai extremely difficult yeah i think gdpr

is very well intentioned it tries to

protect things that we should

try to protect but it does so in ways

that i think will impede the growth of

ai and and to some extent it will

influence other countries including u.s

and china to to use gdpr as a reference

and develop their own laws but i think

europe will enforce it with the

strictest

requirement for compliance and thereby

making it more difficult

to start an ai company in europe

compared to us or china

yeah there's no question that europe the

amendment of the amount of venture

capital in europe the amount of kind of

stock the number of startups in europe

is a tiny tiny portion of the united

states or china

right

it's and i guess that's how it's going

to be the europeans

are willing

to

live with that result it's interesting

yes i spoke once to a european regulator

and i said all these policies will cause

ai to slow down in europe and his answer

was dr lee

that's not a side effect that is what we

intend so that is a very different

mentality than the uh american or the

chinese field yeah

and is that this uh

that'll let you get to your your paying

job in a couple of minutes the um

is that

are the views because you've spent your

life in china and the united states is

are the views of the individuals just

different with respect to data and

privacy that that a chinese is willing

to give up

um their data in exchange for

potentially more personal safety or more

advancements in science americans are

less willing and europeans the least

willing is that a fair characterization

uh it is a

reasonable high level characterization

but the answer is much more nuanced i

think you know i think it's universal

value that everybody

wants to keep their personal data as

private uh as possible but when it comes

to two priorities of uh needing to be

prioritized

i think chinese and europeans and

americans may prioritize them

differently uh an example is a co

incovid right because of kovid

everyone in china has a extremely

accurate con contact tracing app that

knows exactly where i've been and

whether i've been contact with anyone

who may have contracted coronavirus and

as a result

and also the use of you know cameras a

facial recognition along with

temperature and when i go into a

building uh it

at least the building i work in it knows

who i am and what my temperature is so

if i have a fever

i will be invited i will be asked to go

to a hospital

no matter

no matter where i go so that's the

chinese way

you know i think most americans and

certainly europeans will find that

unpleasant and maybe unacceptable

but today if you do a survey to china of

saying chinese people given this is how

china controls coronavirus these are the

things you give up these are the things

you gain safety lower deaths etc

do you would you rather go for a chinese

approach or a european american approach

i would say almost 100 percent of

chinese people would say i think it's a

good trade-off that

our government and our companies do what

they do

and and conversely i also think most

americans europeans would prefer to keep

the systems they have rather than adopt

a chinese system so you know while

everyone wants personal private data

the answer is nuanced and this is a case

in point

wow

fascinating kaifu thank you so much to

our listeners and viewers

this book will give you hours of

pleasure and lots of education

so thank you so much for being a great

friend of the national committee and

thank you for writing

another great book

you