拜登連任機會大跌，特朗普再做總統。美國大選如何影響股市？ [ENG+中文CC]

Summary

This video discusses the potential impacts of the 2024 U.S. election on the stock market, focusing on the rematch between Trump and Biden. It highlights how market performance typically weakens in pre-election years but rebounds post-election as uncertainties clear. The video delves into industry-specific effects, noting sectors that could benefit from a Trump win, such as fossil fuel companies and U.S.-based manufacturers, and those at risk, like import-reliant businesses. It also touches on broader economic factors influencing the market, including AI, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ The 2024 U.S. election is a rematch between Trump and Biden, with significant implications for future domestic and foreign policies.
• 💼 AhJu, a professional investor with over a decade of experience in investment banks, provides insights on market impacts.
• 📊 Historical data shows the stock market tends to be weaker in the first half of election years due to uncertainties around the election outcome.
• 📈 Despite the overall weaker performance, the stock market usually rebounds post-election, with yearly returns similar to non-election years.
• 📊 Current U.S. stock performance has seen a 10% increase since January, with high stock allocations almost at historical levels.
• ⚠️ The market may adjust before the next election due to the strong performance, making it unpredictable.
• 🌐 Multiple factors influence the stock market, including AI's impact on business, potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, inflation, commodity prices, and geopolitical conflicts.
• 📊 Goldman Sachs has created an index reflecting stocks expected to benefit from a Trump win, which has performed well as his chances increase.
• 🛑 Trump's policies, such as easing oil company regulations and promoting 'Made in America' products, could benefit certain industries but harm others.
• 💼 Trump's tax cut policies and pro-business stance could benefit wealthy individuals and financial services companies.
• 🛑 Increased tariffs on imports, a key part of Trump's trade policy, may ultimately hurt the U.S. economy by raising prices and causing inflation.
• 🏭 Industries heavily reliant on imports or with high labor costs, such as consumer goods and hospitality, may suffer under Trump's policies.

Q & A

What is the significance of the 2024 U.S. election in terms of its candidates?

The 2024 U.S. election is significant as it is the first time in 70 years that the same candidates, Trump and Biden, are running against each other in a rematch. Both candidates have previously served as U.S. Presidents, and they are also among the oldest to run for the office.

How does the U.S. stock market typically perform in election years compared to non-election years?

According to the script, the U.S. stock market, represented by the S&P500 index, tends to be weaker in election years, especially in the first half of the year. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome and its potential impact on the market. However, after the election, the market usually rebounds, and the average return for the year is similar to non-election years.

What is the current performance of U.S. stocks as mentioned in the script?

The script mentions that U.S. stocks have increased by 10% since January of the current year, with both institutional investors and individuals actively buying stocks, leading to an almost historically high stock allocation.

What factors, aside from the election, could impact the U.S. stock market?

Factors that could impact the U.S. stock market, as outlined in the script, include the impacts of AI on business, the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, inflation trends as indicated by commodity prices, commercial real estate issues, and geopolitical conflicts such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

How does the script suggest the stock market is forward-looking?

The script suggests that the stock market is forward-looking by noting that stocks related to certain industries have already moved in anticipation of the potential election outcome. For example, stocks in industries expected to benefit from a Trump win have performed better as his chances of winning have increased.

What is the '2024 Republican Policy Pair Index' mentioned in the script?

The '2024 Republican Policy Pair Index' is a basket of stocks created by Goldman Sachs that is expected to benefit if Trump wins the election. It includes stocks of companies that are likely to gain from Trump's policies and short positions on stocks expected to underperform.

Which industries are expected to benefit if Trump wins the election according to the script?

Industries expected to benefit from a Trump win include oil companies, as he is likely to make it easier for them to obtain licenses and produce more fossil raw materials in the U.S. Other beneficiaries could be companies with production in the U.S., those planning to move operations back to the U.S., and financial services companies that may benefit from lower tax rates and reduced capital requirements for banks.

What are the potential negative impacts of Trump's trade policies as discussed in the script?

The script discusses that Trump's trade policies, particularly increased tariffs on imported goods, could lead to a trade war, higher prices for consumers, inflation, and reduced business confidence. These policies could ultimately hurt the U.S. economy, especially low-income consumers, and companies that rely on imported goods or have high labor expense ratios.

How might Trump's labor market policies affect the U.S. economy according to the script?

Trump's labor market policies, which aim to protect American jobs by making it harder for foreigners to work in the U.S. and by deporting illegal immigrants, could lead to a more understaffed labor market. This could result in higher labor costs, which might be passed on to consumers if companies have pricing power, or could negatively impact businesses that do not.

What is the potential impact on consumer industries if Trump's policies lead to higher production costs in the U.S.?

If Trump's policies result in higher production costs due to increased tariffs and reduced access to cheap labor, consumer industries could face challenges. Companies with low margin profits may struggle to absorb these costs, and if they cannot pass on the increased costs to consumers, their business could suffer.

How can viewers find out more about companies that would benefit or suffer from Trump being president?

Viewers can find more information about such companies by subscribing to the speaker's Patreon, where a free 7-day trial is mentioned, allowing them to access detailed insights after signing up.